A New Heuristic Providing an Effective Initial Solution for a Simulated Annealing approach to Energy Resource Scheduling in Smart Grids

An intensive use of dispersed energy resources is expected for future power systems, including distributed generation, especially based on renewable sources, and electric vehicles. The system operation methods and tool must be adapted to the increased complexity, especially the optimal resource scheduling problem. Therefore, the use of metaheuristics is required to obtain good solutions in a reasonable amount of time. This paper proposes two new heuristics, called naive electric vehicles charge and discharge allocation and generation tournament based on cost, developed to obtain an initial solution to be used in the energy resource scheduling methodology based on simulated annealing previously developed by the authors. The case study considers two scenarios with 1000 and 2000 electric vehicles connected in a distribution network. The proposed heuristics are compared with a deterministic approach and presenting a very small error concerning the objective function with a low execution time for the scenario with 2000 vehicles.

Electromagnetism based approach to Sector design in Waste Collection

For efficient planning of waste collection routing, large municipalities may be partitioned into convenient sectors. The real case under consideration is the municipality of Monção, in Portugal. Waste collection involves more than 1600 containers over an area of 220 km2 and a population of around 20,000 inhabitants. This is mostly a rural area where the population is distributed in small villages around the 33 boroughs centres (freguesia) that constitute the municipality. In most freguesias, waste collection is usually conducted 3 times a week. However, there are situations in which the same collection is done every day. The case reveals some general and specific characteristics which are not rare, but are not widely addressed in the literature. Furthermore, new methods and models to deal with sectorization and routing are introduced, which can be extended to other applications. Sectorization and routing are tackled following a three-phase approach. The first phase, which is the main concern of the presentation, introduces a new method for sectorization inspired by Electromagnetism and Coulomb’s Law. The matter is not only about territorial division, but also the frequency of waste collection, which is a critical issue in these types of applications. Special characteristics related to the number and type of deposition points were also a motivation for this work. The second phase addresses the routing problems in each sector: new Mixed Capacitated Arc Routing with Limited Multi-Landfills models will be presented. The last phase integrates Sectoring and Routing. Computational results confirm the effectiveness of the entire novel approach.

The Hybrid Approach for Palliation of Hypoplastic Left Heart Syndrome: Intermediate Results of a Single-Center Experience

INTRODUCTION: Hypoplastic left heart syndrome (HLHS) is a major cause of cardiac death during the first week of life. The hybrid approach is a reliable, reproducible treatment option for patients with HLHS. Herein we report our results using this approach, focusing on its efficacy, safety and late outcome. METHODS: We reviewed prospectively collected data on patients treated for HLHS using a hybrid approach between July 2007 and September 2014. RESULTS: Nine patients had a stage 1 hybrid procedure, with seven undergoing a comprehensive stage 2 procedure. One patient completed the Fontan procedure. Five patients underwent balloon atrial septostomy after the hybrid procedure; in three patients, a stent was placed across the atrial septum. There were three deaths: two early after the hybrid procedure and one early after stage two palliation. Overall survival was 66%. CONCLUSIONS: In our single-center series, the hybrid approach for HLHS yields intermediate results comparable to those of the Norwood strategy. The existence of dedicated teams for the diagnosis and management of these patients, preferably in high-volume centers, is of major importance in this condition.

An interactive learning approach to accounting classes

This working paper explores the use of interactive learning tools, such as business simulations, to facilitate the active learning process in accounting classes. Although business simulations were firstly introduced in the United States in the 1950s, the vast majority of accounting professors still use traditional teaching methods, based in end-of-chapter exercises and written cases. Moreover, the current students’ generation brings new challenges to the classroom related with their video, game, internet and mobile culture. Thus, a survey and an experimentation were conducted to understand, on one hand, if accounting professors are willing to adjust their teaching methods with the adoption of interactive learning tools and, on the other hand, if the adoption of interactive learning tools in accounting classes yield better academic results and levels of satisfaction among students. Students using more interactive learning approaches scored significantly higher means than others that did not. Accounting professors are clearly willing to try, at least once, the use of an accounting simulator in classes.

High throughput sequencing and proteomics to identify immunogenic proteins of a new pathogen: the dirty genome approach.

With the availability of new generation sequencing technologies, bacterial genome projects have undergone a major boost. Still, chromosome completion needs a costly and time-consuming gap closure, especially when containing highly repetitive elements. However, incomplete genome data may be sufficiently informative to derive the pursued information. For emerging pathogens, i.e. newly identified pathogens, lack of release of genome data during gap closure stage is clearly medically counterproductive. We thus investigated the feasibility of a dirty genome approach, i.e. the release of unfinished genome sequences to develop serological diagnostic tools. We showed that almost the whole genome sequence of the emerging pathogen Parachlamydia acanthamoebae was retrieved even with relatively short reads from Genome Sequencer 20 and Solexa. The bacterial proteome was analyzed to select immunogenic proteins, which were then expressed and used to elaborate the first steps of an ELISA. This work constitutes the proof of principle for a dirty genome approach, i.e. the use of unfinished genome sequences of pathogenic bacteria, coupled with proteomics to rapidly identify new immunogenic proteins useful to develop in the future specific diagnostic tests such as ELISA, immunohistochemistry and direct antigen detection. Although applied here to an emerging pathogen, this combined dirty genome sequencing/proteomic approach may be used for any pathogen for which better diagnostics are needed. These genome sequences may also be very useful to develop DNA based diagnostic tests. All these diagnostic tools will allow further evaluations of the pathogenic potential of this obligate intracellular bacterium.

A direct approach to the discounted penalty function

This paper provides a new and accessible approach to establishing certain results concerning the discounted penalty function. The direct approach consists of two steps. In the first step, closed-form expressions are obtained in the special case in which the claim amount distribution is a combination of exponential distributions. A rational function is useful in this context. For the second step, one observes that the family of combinations of exponential distributions is dense. Hence, it suffices to reformulate the results of the first step to obtain general results. The surplus process has downward and upward jumps, modeled by two independent compound Poisson processes. If the distribution of the upward jumps is exponential, a series of new results can be obtained with ease. Subsequently, certain results of Gerber and Shiu [H. U. Gerber and E. S. W. Shiu, North American Actuarial Journal 2(1): 48–78 (1998)] can be reproduced. The two-step approach is also applied when an independent Wiener process is added to the surplus process. Certain results are related to Zhang et al. [Z. Zhang, H. Yang, and S. Li, Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics 233: 1773–1 784 (2010)], which uses different methods.

Mobile E-commerce business model – A value web based approach to business models in mobile gaming industry

Tämän tutkimuksen tavoitteena oli tutkia langattomien internet palveluiden arvoverkkoa ja liiketoimintamalleja. Tutkimus oli luonteeltaan kvalitatiivinen ja siinä käytettiin strategiana konstruktiivista case-tutkimusta. Esimerkkipalveluna oli Treasure Hunters matkapuhelinpeli. Tutkimus muodostui teoreettisesta ja empiirisestä osasta. Teoriaosassa liitettiin innovaatio, liiketoimintamallit ja arvoverkko käsitteellisesti toisiinsa, sekä luotiin perusta liiketoimintamallien kehittämiselle. Empiirisessä osassa keskityttiin ensin liiketoimintamallien luomiseen kehitettyjen innovaatioiden pohjalta. Lopuksi pyrittiin määrittämään arvoverkko palvelun toteuttamiseksi. Tutkimusmenetelminä käytettiin innovaatiosessiota, haastatteluja ja lomakekyselyä. Tulosten pohjalta muodostettiin useita liiketoimintakonsepteja sekä kuvaus arvoverkon perusmallista langattomille peleille. Loppupäätelmänä todettiin että langattomat palvelut vaativat toteutuakseen useista toimijoista koostuvan arvoverkon.

Sudden cardiac death in forensic medicine - Swiss recommendations for a multidisciplinary approach.

Sudden cardiac death (SCD) is by definition unexpected and cardiac in nature. The investigation is almost invariably performed by a forensic pathologist. Under these circumstances the role of the forensic pathologist is twofold: (1.) to determine rapidly and efficiently the cause and manner of death and (2.) to initiate a multidisciplinary process in order to prevent further deaths in existing family members. If the death is determined to be due to "natural" causes the district attorney in charge often refuses further examinations. However, additional examinations, i.e. extensive histopathological investigations and/or molecular genetic analyses, are necessary in many cases to clarify the cause of death. The Swiss Society of Legal Medicine created a multidisciplinary working group together with clinical and molecular geneticists and cardiologists in the hope of harmonising the approach to investigate SCD. The aim of this paper is to close the gap between the Swiss recommendations for routine forensic post-mortem cardiac examination and clinical recommendations for genetic testing of inherited cardiac diseases; this is in order to optimise the diagnostic procedures and preventive measures for living family members. The key points of the recommendations are (1.) the forensic autopsy procedure for all SCD victims under 40 years of age, (2.) the collection and storage of adequate samples for genetic testing, (3.) communication with the families, and (4.) a multidisciplinary approach including cardiogenetic counselling.

Prevalence and Diagnostic Approach to Sleep Apnea in Hemodialysis Patients: A Population Study.

BACKGROUND: Previous observations found a high prevalence of obstructive sleep apnea (OSA) in the hemodialysis population, but the best diagnostic approach remains undefined. We assessed OSA prevalence and performance of available screening tools to propose a specific diagnostic algorithm. METHODS: 104 patients from 6 Swiss hemodialysis centers underwent polygraphy and completed 3 OSA screening scores: STOP-BANG, Berlin's Questionnaire, and Adjusted Neck Circumference. The OSA predictors were identified on a derivation population and used to develop the diagnostic algorithm, which was validated on an independent population. RESULTS: We found 56% OSA prevalence (AHI ≥ 15/h), which was largely underdiagnosed. Screening scores showed poor performance for OSA screening (ROC areas 0.538 [SE 0.093] to 0.655 [SE 0.083]). Age, neck circumference, and time on renal replacement therapy were the best predictors of OSA and were used to develop a screening algorithm, with higher discriminatory performance than classical screening tools (ROC area 0.831 [0.066]). CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirms the high OSA prevalence and highlights the low diagnosis rate of this treatable cardiovascular risk factor in the hemodialysis population. Considering the poor performance of OSA screening tools, we propose and validate a specific algorithm to identify hemodialysis patients at risk for OSA for whom further sleep investigations should be considered.

The Midnight express phenomenon : a historical materialist approach to the reception of the film Midnight express /

This thesis examines the Midnight Express phenomenon focusing on the film's reception by audiences in Europe, North America, and Turkey between 1978-2003. Using and enhancing the "historical materialist approach" to film reception developed by Janet Staiger, the thesis considers the historical determinants of the film's nationally and culturally differential readings in different periods and of the transformations in those readings. The thesis argues that while Midnight Express was most likely read in the late 1970s as an attempt to reaffirm American social identity by projecting Turks as an instance of the negative Other, there has been an important shift in the reception of the film in the West during the 1990s due to the changes in the discursive contexts in which the film has been circulating. One does not observe any specific reference to Turkish prisons as a part of the issue of human rights violations in Turkey in the initial reception of the film by European and American critics, whereas these issues appear to be important constituents of a particular reception of the film in the West in the present. The thesis explains this shift by pointing to the constitution of a particular discourse on human rights violations in Turkey after 1980, and especially throughout the 1990s, which has become a part of the discursive repertoires of the Western audience. Therefore, the thesis argues that today, Midnight Express functions as a more legitimate political statement about Turkey in the eyes of some Western audiences than it had been in the 1970s. On the other hand, parallel to the increasing desire of Turkey to connect itself to the West, particularly to become a member of the European Union, one observes an immense increase in the belief in and defense against the negative effects of Midnight Express on Turkey's international representation since the 1990s. The historical and current discourses that audiences, both in Turkey and abroad, bring into play suggest that these audiences engage with Midnight Express by assuming or denying not only the subject positions constructed by the film text but also certain history-specific extra-filmic subject positions produced by other social and discursive formations.

Husserl's approach to transcendental intersubjectivity

It is our intention in the course of the development of this thesis to give an account of how intersubjectivity is "eidetically" constituted by means of the application of the phenomenological reduction to our experience in the context of the thought of Edmund Husserl; contrasted with various representative thinkers in what H. Spiegelberg refers to as "the wider scene" of phenomenology. That is to say, we intend to show those structures of both consciousness and the relation which man has to the world which present themselves as the generic conditions for the possibility of overcoming our "radical sol itude" in order that we may gain access to the mental 1 ife of an Other as other human subject. It is clear that in order for us to give expression to these accounts in a coherent manner, along with their relative merits, it will be necessary to develop the common features of any phenomenological theory of consdousness whatever. Therefore, our preliminary inquiry, subordinate to the larger theme, shall be into some of the epistemological results of the application of the phenomenological method used to develop a transcendental theory of consciousness. Inherent in this will be the deliniation of the exigency for making this an lIintentional ll theory. We will then be able to see how itis possible to overcome transcendentally the Other as an object merely given among other merely given objects, and further, how this other is constituted specifically as other ego. The problem of transcendental intersubjectivity and its constitution in experience can be viewed as one of the most compelling, if not the most polemical of issues in phenomenology. To be sure, right from the beginning we are forced to ask a number of questions regarding Husserl's responses to the problem within the context of the methodological genesis of the Cartesian Meditations, and The Crisis of European Sciences and Transcendental Phenomenology. This we do in order to set the stage for amplification. First, we ask, has Husserl lived up to his goal, in this connexion, of an apodictic result? We recall that in his Logos article of 1911 he adminished that previous philosophy does not have at its disposal a merely incomplete and, in particular instances, imperfect doctrinal system; it simply has none whatever. Each and every question is herein controverted, each position is a matter of individual conviction, of the interpretation given byaschool, of a "point of view". 1. Moreover in the same article he writes that his goal is a philosophical system of doctrine that, after the gigantic preparatory work. of generations, really be- . gins from the ground up with a foundation free from doubt and rises up like any skilful construction, wherein stone is set upon store, each as solid as the other, in accord with directive insights. 2. Reflecting upon the fact that he foresaw "preparatory work of generations", we perhaps should not expect that he would claim that his was the last word on the matter of intersubjectivity. Indeed, with 2. 'Edmund Husserl, lIPhilosophy as a Rigorous Science" in Phenomenology and theCrisis6fPhilosophy, trans". with an introduction by Quentin Lauer (New York.: Harper & Row, 1965) pp. 74 .. 5. 2Ibid . pp. 75 .. 6. 3. the relatively small amount of published material by Husserl on the subject we can assume that he himself was not entirely satisfied with his solution. The second question we have is that if the transcendental reduction is to yield the generic and apodictic structures of the relationship of consciousness to its various possible objects, how far can we extend this particular constitutive synthetic function to intersubjectivity where the objects must of necessity always remain delitescent? To be sure, the type of 'object' here to be considered is unlike any other which might appear in the perceptual field. What kind of indubitable evidence will convince us that the characteristic which we label "alter-ego" and which we attribute to an object which appears to resemble another body which we have never, and can never see the whole of (namely, our own bodies), is nothing more than a cleverly contrived automaton? What;s the nature of this peculiar intentional function which enables us to say "you think just as I do"? If phenomenology is to take such great pains to reduce the takenfor- granted, lived, everyday world to an immanent world of pure presentation, we must ask the mode of presentation for transcendent sub .. jectivities. And in the end, we must ask if Husserl's argument is not reducible to a case (however special) of reasoning by analogy, and if so, tf this type of reasoning is not so removed from that from whtch the analogy is made that it would render all transcendental intersubjective understandtng impos'sible? 2. HistoticalandEidetic Priority: The Necessity of Abstraction 4. The problem is not a simple one. What is being sought are the conditions for the poss ibili:ty of experi encing other subjects. More precisely, the question of the possibility of intersubjectivity is the question of the essence of intersubjectivity. What we are seeking is the absolute route from one solitude to another. Inherent in this programme is the ultimate discovery of the meaning of community. That this route needs be lIabstract" requires some explanation. It requires little explanation that we agree with Husserl in the aim of fixing the goal of philosophy on apodictic, unquestionable results. This means that we seek a philosophical approach which is, though, not necessarily free from assumptions, one which examines and makes explicit all assumptions in a thorough manner. It would be helpful at this point to distinguish between lIeidetic ll priority, and JlhistoricallJpriority in order to shed some light on the value, in this context, of an abstraction.3 It is true that intersubjectivity is mundanely an accomplished fact, there havi.ng been so many mi.llions of years for humans to beIt eve in the exi s tence of one another I s abili ty to think as they do. But what we seek is not to study how this proceeded historically, but 3Cf• Maurice Natanson;·TheJburne in 'Self, a Stud in Philoso h and Social Role (Santa Cruz, U. of California Press, 1970 . rather the logical, nay, "psychological" conditions under which this is possible at all. It is therefore irrelevant to the exigesis of this monograph whether or not anyone should shrug his shoulders and mumble IIwhy worry about it, it is always already engaged". By way of an explanation of the value of logical priority, we can find an analogy in the case of language. Certainly the language 5. in a spoken or written form predates the formulation of the appropriate grammar. However, this grammar has a logical priority insofar as it lays out the conditions from which that language exhibits coherence. The act of formulating the grammar is a case of abstraction. The abstraction towards the discovery of the conditions for the poss; bi 1 ity of any experiencing whatever, for which intersubjective experience is a definite case, manifests itself as a sort of "grammar". This "grammar" is like the basic grammar of a language in the sense that these "rulesil are the ~ priori conditions for the possibility of that experience. There is, we shall say, an "eidetic priority", or a generic condition which is the logical antecedent to the taken-forgranted object of experience. In the case of intersubjectivity we readily grant that one may mundanely be aware of fellow-men as fellowmen, but in order to discover how that awareness is possible it is necessary to abstract from the mundane, believed-in experience. This process of abstraction is the paramount issue; the first step, in the search for an apodictic basis for social relations. How then is this abstraction to be accomplished? What is the nature of an abstraction which would permit us an Archimedean point, absolutely grounded, from which we may proceed? The answer can be discovered in an examination of Descartes in the light of Husserl's criticism. 3. The Impulse for Scientific Philosophy. The Method to which it Gives Rise. 6. Foremost in our inquiry is the discovery of a method appropriate to the discovery of our grounding point. For the purposes of our investigations, i.e., that of attempting to give a phenomenological view of the problem of intersubjectivity, it would appear to be of cardinal importance to trace the attempt of philosophy predating Husserl, particularly in the philosophy of Descartes, at founding a truly IIscientific ll philosophy. Paramount in this connexion would be the impulse in the Modern period, as the result of more or less recent discoveries in the natural sciences, to found philosophy upon scientific and mathematical principles. This impulse was intended to culminate in an all-encompassing knowledge which might extend to every realm of possible thought, viz., the universal science ot IIMathexis Universalis ll •4 This was a central issue for Descartes, whose conception of a universal science would include all the possible sciences of man. This inclination towards a science upon which all other sciences might be based waS not to be belittled by Husserl, who would appropriate 4This term, according to Jacab Klein, was first used by Barocius, the translator of Proclus into Latin, to designate the highest mathematical discipline. . 7. it himself in hopes of establishing, for the very first time, philosophy as a "rigorous science". It bears emphasizing that this in fact was the drive for the hardening of the foundations of philosophy, the link between the philosophical projects of Husserl and those of the philosophers of the modern period. Indeed, Husserl owes Descartes quite a debt for indicating the starting place from which to attempt a radical, presupositionless, and therefore scientific philosophy, in order not to begin philosophy anew, but rather for the first time.5 The aim of philosophy for Husserl is the search for apodictic, radical certitude. However while he attempted to locate in experience the type of necessity which is found in mathematics, he wished this necessity to be a function of our life in the world, as opposed to the definition and postulation of an axiomatic method as might be found in the unexpurgated attempts to found philosophy in Descartes. Beyond the necessity which is involved in experiencing the world, Husserl was searching for the certainty of roots, of the conditi'ons which underl ie experience and render it pOssible. Descartes believed that hi~ MeditatiOns had uncovered an absolute ground for knowledge, one founded upon the ineluctable givenness of thinking which is present even when one doubts thinking. Husserl, in acknowledging this procedure is certainly Cartesian, but moves, despite this debt to Descartes, far beyond Cartesian philosophy i.n his phenomenology (and in many respects, closer to home). 5Cf. Husserl, Philosophy as a Rigorous Science, pp. 74ff. 8 But wherein lies this Cartesian jumping off point by which we may vivify our theme? Descartes, through inner reflection, saw that all of his convictions and beliefs about the world were coloured in one way or another by prejudice: ... at the end I feel constrained to reply that there is nothing in a all that I formerly believed to be true, of which I cannot in some measure doubt, and that not merely through want of thought or through levity, but for reasons which are very powerful and maturely considered; so that henceforth I ought not the less carefully to refrain from giving credence to these opinions than to that which is manifestly false, if I desire to arrive at any certainty (in the sciences). 6 Doubts arise regardless of the nature of belief - one can never completely believe what one believes. Therefore, in order to establish absolutely grounded knowledge, which may serve as the basis fora "universal Science", one must use a method by which one may purge oneself of all doubts and thereby gain some radically indubitable insight into knowledge. Such a method, gescartes found, was that, as indicated above by hi,s own words, of II radical doubt" which "forbids in advance any judgemental use of (previous convictions and) which forbids taking any position with regard to their val idi'ty. ,,7 This is the method of the "sceptical epoche ll , the method of doubting all which had heretofor 6Descartes,Meditations on First Philosophy, first Med., (Libera 1 Arts Press, New York, 1954) trans. by L. LaFl eur. pp. 10. 7Husserl ,CrisiS of Eliroeari SCiences and Trariscendental Phenomenology, (Northwestern U. Press, Evanston, 1 7 ,p. 76. 9. been considered as belonging to the world, including the world itself. What then is left over? Via the process of a thorough and all-inclusive doubting, Descartes discovers that the ego which performs the epoche, or "reduction", is excluded from these things which can be doubted, and, in principle provides something which is beyond doubt. Consequently this ego provides an absolute and apodictic starting point for founding scientific philosophy. By way of this abstention. of bel ief, Desca'rtes managed to reduce the worl d of everyday 1 ife as bel ieved in, to mere 'phenomena', components of the rescogitans:. Thus:, having discovered his Archimedean point, the existence of the ego without question, he proceeds to deduce the 'rest' of the world with the aid of innate ideas and the veracity of God. In both Husserl and Descartes the compelling problem is that of establ ishing a scientific, apodictic phi'losophy based upon presuppos itionless groundwork .. Husserl, in thi.s regard, levels the charge at Descartes that the engagement of his method was not complete, such that hi.S: starting place was not indeed presupositionless, and that the validity of both causality and deductive methods were not called into question i.'n the performance of theepoche. In this way it is easy for an absolute evidence to make sure of the ego as: a first, "absolute, indubitablyexisting tag~end of the worldll , and it is then only a matter of inferring the absolute subs.tance and the other substances which belon.g to the world, along with my own mental substance, using a logically val i d deductive procedure. 8 8Husserl, E.;' Cartesian 'Meditation;, trans. Dorion Cairns (Martinus Nijhoff, The Hague, 1970), p. 24 ff.

Improving grade eight students' spelling performance with a triad strategy approach

Thesis (M.Ed.)-- Brock University, 1996.

Spelling performance of third grade students : a comparison of whole-language-plus-strategy instruction, strategy instruction only, and the whole language approach

This study investigated three methods for teaching children how to spell. Third grade students were divided into three conditions for a one-week training period consisting of 15- to 20-minute lessons. One of the two experimental conditions used a whole language approach along with explicit strategy instruction. The second condition used strategy instruction within a traditional setting. The control used strictly a whole language approach to le~ing hO\\l to spell. The spelling perfonnance of all three conditions improved after the one-week training period. However, students in the strategy instruction groups did significantly better on the study "'7ords than the whole language only group. The students in whole-Ianguage-plusstrateg)! instruction outperformed both other groups. Significantly better spelling perfonnance was observed even at the nine-week posttest. This study frrst supported the hypothesis that children can make significantly greater improven1ents in their spelling when explicitly taught how to use spelling strategies. Secondl)', this study indicated that whole language provided a relevant context for the study words, clearly giving the students in the whole-Ianguage-plus-strategy condition an additional advantage.

A Psychosocial Approach to Understanding Causality Assessment in Early Phase Oncology Clinical Trials: A Phenomenological Study

Research Question: What are the psychosocial factors that affect causality assessment in early phase oncology clinical trials? Methods: Thirty-two qualitative interviews were explicated with the aid of “Naturalistic Decision Making”. Data explication consisted of phenomenological reduction, delineating and clustering meaning units, forming themes, and creating a composite summary. Participants were members of the National Cancer Institute of Canada’s Clinical Trial Group Investigative New Drug committee. Results: The process of assigning causality is extremely subjective and full of uncertainty. Physicians had no formal training, nor a tool to assist them with this process. Physicians were apprehensive about their decisions and felt pressure from their patients, as well as the pharmaceutical companies sponsoring the trial. Conclusions: There are many problem areas when attributing causality, all of which have serious consequences, but clinicians used a variety of methods to cope with these problem areas.

Using a Bayesian model for bankruptcy prediction : a comparative approach

The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of the choice of cut-off points, sampling procedures, and the business cycle on the accuracy of bankruptcy prediction models. Misclassification can result in erroneous predictions leading to prohibitive costs to firms, investors and the economy. To test the impact of the choice of cut-off points and sampling procedures, three bankruptcy prediction models are assessed- Bayesian, Hazard and Mixed Logit. A salient feature of the study is that the analysis includes both parametric and nonparametric bankruptcy prediction models. A sample of firms from Lynn M. LoPucki Bankruptcy Research Database in the U. S. was used to evaluate the relative performance of the three models. The choice of a cut-off point and sampling procedures were found to affect the rankings of the various models. In general, the results indicate that the empirical cut-off point estimated from the training sample resulted in the lowest misclassification costs for all three models. Although the Hazard and Mixed Logit models resulted in lower costs of misclassification in the randomly selected samples, the Mixed Logit model did not perform as well across varying business-cycles. In general, the Hazard model has the highest predictive power. However, the higher predictive power of the Bayesian model, when the ratio of the cost of Type I errors to the cost of Type II errors is high, is relatively consistent across all sampling methods. Such an advantage of the Bayesian model may make it more attractive in the current economic environment. This study extends recent research comparing the performance of bankruptcy prediction models by identifying under what conditions a model performs better. It also allays a range of user groups, including auditors, shareholders, employees, suppliers, rating agencies, and creditors' concerns with respect to assessing failure risk.