Ranking factors affecting emissions of GHG from incubated agricultural soils

Agriculture significantly contributes to global greenhouse gas (GHG) missions and there is a need to develop effective mitigation strategies. The efficacy of methods to reduce GHG fluxes from agricultural soils can be affected by a range of interacting management and environmental factors. Uniquely, we used the Taguchi experimental design methodology to rank the relative importance of six factors known to affect the emission of GHG from soil: nitrate (NO3?) addition, carbon quality (labile and non-labile C), soil temperature, water-filled pore space (WFPS) and extent of soil compaction. Grassland soil was incubated in jars where selected factors, considered at two or three amounts within the experimental range, were combined in an orthogonal array to determine the importance and interactions between factors with a L16 design, comprising 16 experimental units. Within this L16 design, 216 combinations of the full factorial experimental design were represented. Headspace nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations were measured and used to calculate fluxes. Results found for the relative influence of factors (WFPS and NO3? addition were the main factors affecting N2O fluxes, whilst glucose, NO3? and soil temperature were the main factors affecting CO2 and CH4 fluxes) were consistent with those already well documented. Interactions between factors were also studied and results showed that factors with Little individual influence became more influential in combination. The proposed methodology offers new possibilities for GHG researchers to study interactions between influential factors and address the optimized sets of conditions to reduce GHG emissions in agro-ecosystems, while reducing the number of experimental units required compared with conventional experimental procedures that adjust one variable at a time.

Balancing management and preservation of mediterranean scattered oak woodlands (Dehesas) in human-dominated landscapes

Los sistemas agroforestales mediterráneos tienen una gran importancia ecológica y socioeconómica, y mantienen altos valores medioambientales y de diversidad biológica a la vez que producen importantes servicios ecosistémicos. Estos sistemas han sido testigos de diversos cambios rápidos y drásticos en su gestión y aprovechamiento durante el último siglo. La mayor parte de la investigación desarrollada en esta tesis doctoral ha sido llevada a cabo en las dehesas españolas. Esta tesis nos muestra: i) la evidencia de la existencia de un cambio global del estrato arbóreo y del manejo del pastoreo en el todo el área de distribución de la dehesa durante los últimos 60 años; ii) la importancia del papel que juega el arbolado disperso y el adecuado manejo del ganado en la mejora de la producción, calidad y diversidad de las comunidades herbáceas, que a su vez, un pasto herbáceo bien desarrollado es importante para la rentabilidad del sistema, evaluando estos efectos bajo distintos escenarios de clima y calidad de estación; y iii) la evidencia de la falta de regeneración en sistemas agroforestales mediterráneos bajo distintos tipos de manejo del pastoreo, y además se evalúa el crecimiento y desarrollo de las pocas plántulas existentes que serán las que aseguren la viabilidad y persistencia y de estos sistemas. El arbolado disperso de estos sistemas ha experimentado una reducción importante en su densidad arbórea y fracción de cabida cubierta durante el periodo entre 1950-1980 donde tuvieron lugar importantes transformaciones en la actividad agropecuaria. La cabaña ganadera de ovino disminuyó drásticamente en los años 70 en comparación a la de bovino que desde entonces ha aumentado progresivamente hasta la actualidad. Por otro lado, el mismo tipo de manejo del ganado doméstico (especialmente bovino) durante bastante tiempo (mínimo 30 años) provocó una reducción significativa de la densidad de las plántulas. Además la probabilidad de ocurrencia y la intensidad de daños por herbivoría fue mayor bajo pastoreo bovino (con daños más intensos y consistentes) que bajo pastoreo ovino o sin pastoreo doméstico (presencia de ciervos). También el patrón de crecimiento de las plantas jóvenes estuvo afectado por el tipo de manejo, generando plántulas achaparradas en el caso del bovino y plántulas esbeltas favoreciendo el crecimiento en altura en el caso del ovino. La presencia de un arbolado disperso generó una mayor diversidad y variación en la producción de las comunidades herbáceas según las condiciones de disponibilidad de agua. Especialmente, el ecotono como microhábitat sostuvo altos valores de diversidad herbácea. La presencia del ganado bajo pastoreo continuo de intensidad moderada a alta, especialmente el bovino, incrementó los rendimientos de producción y diversidad del estrato herbáceo. Los resultados de esta tesis nos muestran la importancia que tiene la existencia de un equilibrio entre la producción y la conservación de los sistemas agroforestales mediterráneos para obtener una producción sostenible de servicios ecosistémicos mientras se asegura la perpetuación del sistema a largo plazo. Es crucial diseñar planes de gestión incorporando objetivos de conservación que integren técnicas silvopastorales apropiadas para poder aplicar en los sistemas agroforestales mediterráneos. ABSTRACT Mediterranean scattered oak woodlands have great ecological and socio-economic importance, supporting high environmental and amenity values, and relatively rich biological diversity while producing important ecosystem services. They have been witnesses of different and fast changes developed in the last century. Most of the research developed in this dissertation has conducted within dehesas. This thesis provides: i) the global change evidence of the tree layer and grazing management experienced in the land-use range of a Mediterranean scattered oak woodland (dehesa) over the last 60 years; ii) the important role of scattered trees and adequate management grazing in the improvement of grassland yield, quality and diversity - which it is important, in turn, for the system profitability - under different climate scenarios and site quality; and iii) the lack of oak regeneration evidence under some given representative management regimes and how is the growth development of these plants to assure the viability and persistence of Mediterranean scattered oak woodlands. Tree layer experienced a significant reduction in dehesas during 1950-1980 period where the highest human impacts took place. Sheep herd decreased drastically during the 1970s and, in contrast, cattle have been increasing gradually since then. On the other hand, same livestock grazing management (especially cattle) during long time (minimum 30 years) within Mediterranean scattered oak woodlands reduced strongly the density of young oak plants and showed high probability of herbivory occurrence and intensity. Young plant growth pattern was greatly modified by livestock. Cattle grazing generated stunted plants and sheep grazing generated slender plants favoring the height growth. Microsites created by large trees modified the herbaceous yield according the water availability of the year and generated high plant diversity within herbaceous communities. Especially, ecotone microsite supported high values of herbaceous diversity. The presence of livestock species increased the herbaceous yield and maintained a more diverse community under continuous grazing at both moderate and high intensities; especially cattle. Thus, around the influence of scattered trees there is a high amount of different interactions among livestock, trees and grasslands maintaining and enhancing the quality of whole dehesa system. The results of this thesis highlight how important is balancing management and preservation of Mediterranean scattered oak woodlands to obtain the optimum ecosystem services while the system conservation is assured for a long-term. It is crucial to design management plans with conservation goals that include appropriate silvopastoral practices in Mediterranean scattered oak woodlands.

Balancing management and preservation of mediterranean scattered oak woodlands (Dehesas) in human-dominated landscapes

Los sistemas agroforestales mediterráneos tienen una gran importancia ecológica y socioeconómica, y mantienen altos valores medioambientales y de diversidad biológica a la vez que producen importantes servicios ecosistémicos. Estos sistemas han sido testigos de diversos cambios rápidos y drásticos en su gestión y aprovechamiento durante el último siglo. La mayor parte de la investigación desarrollada en esta tesis doctoral ha sido llevada a cabo en las dehesas españolas. Esta tesis nos muestra: i) la evidencia de la existencia de un cambio global del estrato arbóreo y del manejo del pastoreo en el todo el área de distribución de la dehesa durante los últimos 60 años; ii) la importancia del papel que juega el arbolado disperso y el adecuado manejo del ganado en la mejora de la producción, calidad y diversidad de las comunidades herbáceas, que a su vez, un pasto herbáceo bien desarrollado es importante para la rentabilidad del sistema, evaluando estos efectos bajo distintos escenarios de clima y calidad de estación; y iii) la evidencia de la falta de regeneración en sistemas agroforestales mediterráneos bajo distintos tipos de manejo del pastoreo, y además se evalúa el crecimiento y desarrollo de las pocas plántulas existentes que serán las que aseguren la viabilidad y persistencia y de estos sistemas. El arbolado disperso de estos sistemas ha experimentado una reducción importante en su densidad arbórea y fracción de cabida cubierta durante el periodo entre 1950-1980 donde tuvieron lugar importantes transformaciones en la actividad agropecuaria. La cabaña ganadera de ovino disminuyó drásticamente en los años 70 en comparación a la de bovino que desde entonces ha aumentado progresivamente hasta la actualidad. Por otro lado, el mismo tipo de manejo del ganado doméstico (especialmente bovino) durante bastante tiempo (mínimo 30 años) provocó una reducción significativa de la densidad de las plántulas. Además la probabilidad de ocurrencia y la intensidad de daños por herbivoría fue mayor bajo pastoreo bovino (con daños más intensos y consistentes) que bajo pastoreo ovino o sin pastoreo doméstico (presencia de ciervos). También el patrón de crecimiento de las plantas jóvenes estuvo afectado por el tipo de manejo, generando plántulas achaparradas en el caso del bovino y plántulas esbeltas favoreciendo el crecimiento en altura en el caso del ovino. La presencia de un arbolado disperso generó una mayor diversidad y variación en la producción de las comunidades herbáceas según las condiciones de disponibilidad de agua. Especialmente, el ecotono como microhábitat sostuvo altos valores de diversidad herbácea. La presencia del ganado bajo pastoreo continuo de intensidad moderada a alta, especialmente el bovino, incrementó los rendimientos de producción y diversidad del estrato herbáceo. Los resultados de esta tesis nos muestran la importancia que tiene la existencia de un equilibrio entre la producción y la conservación de los sistemas agroforestales mediterráneos para obtener una producción sostenible de servicios ecosistémicos mientras se asegura la perpetuación del sistema a largo plazo. Es crucial diseñar planes de gestión incorporando objetivos de conservación que integren técnicas silvopastorales apropiadas para poder aplicar en los sistemas agroforestales mediterráneos. ABSTRACT Mediterranean scattered oak woodlands have great ecological and socio-economic importance, supporting high environmental and amenity values, and relatively rich biological diversity while producing important ecosystem services. They have been witnesses of different and fast changes developed in the last century. Most of the research developed in this dissertation has conducted within dehesas. This thesis provides: i) the global change evidence of the tree layer and grazing management experienced in the land-use range of a Mediterranean scattered oak woodland (dehesa) over the last 60 years; ii) the important role of scattered trees and adequate management grazing in the improvement of grassland yield, quality and diversity - which it is important, in turn, for the system profitability - under different climate scenarios and site quality; and iii) the lack of oak regeneration evidence under some given representative management regimes and how is the growth development of these plants to assure the viability and persistence of Mediterranean scattered oak woodlands. Tree layer experienced a significant reduction in dehesas during 1950-1980 period where the highest human impacts took place. Sheep herd decreased drastically during the 1970s and, in contrast, cattle have been increasing gradually since then. On the other hand, same livestock grazing management (especially cattle) during long time (minimum 30 years) within Mediterranean scattered oak woodlands reduced strongly the density of young oak plants and showed high probability of herbivory occurrence and intensity. Young plant growth pattern was greatly modified by livestock. Cattle grazing generated stunted plants and sheep grazing generated slender plants favoring the height growth. Microsites created by large trees modified the herbaceous yield according the water availability of the year and generated high plant diversity within herbaceous communities. Especially, ecotone microsite supported high values of herbaceous diversity. The presence of livestock species increased the herbaceous yield and maintained a more diverse community under continuous grazing at both moderate and high intensities; especially cattle. Thus, around the influence of scattered trees there is a high amount of different interactions among livestock, trees and grasslands maintaining and enhancing the quality of whole dehesa system. The results of this thesis highlight how important is balancing management and preservation of Mediterranean scattered oak woodlands to obtain the optimum ecosystem services while the system conservation is assured for a long-term. It is crucial to design management plans with conservation goals that include appropriate silvopastoral practices in Mediterranean scattered oak woodlands.

Maintaining distances with the engineer: patterns of coexistence in plant communities beyond the patch-bare dichotomy

Two-phase plant communities with an engineer conforming conspicuous patches and affecting the performance and patterns of coexisting species are the norm under stressful conditions. To unveil the mechanisms governing coexistence in these communities at multiple spatial scales, we have developed a new point-raster approach of spatial pattern analysis, which was applied to a Mediterranean high mountain grassland to show how Festuca curvifolia patches affect the local distribution of coexisting species. We recorded 22 111 individuals of 17 plant perennial species. Most coexisting species were negatively associated with F. curvifolia clumps. Nevertheless, bivariate nearest-neighbor analyses revealed that the majority of coexisting species were confined at relatively short distances from F. curvifolia borders (between 0-2 cm and up to 8 cm in some cases). Our study suggests the existence of a fine-scale effect of F. curvifolia for most species promoting coexistence through a mechanism we call 'facilitation in the halo'. Most coexisting species are displaced to an interphase area between patches, where two opposite forces reach equilibrium: attenuated severe conditions by proximity to the F. curvifolia canopy (nutrient-rich islands) and competitive exclusion mitigated by avoiding direct contact with F. curvifolia.

O uso do eucalipto em sistemas silvipastoril: acúmulo de fitomassa arbórea e de pastagem

O presente estudo foi dividido em três capitulos, todos realizados na Estação Experimental de Ciências Florestais de Anhembi/SP, entre os anos de 2014 e 2015. O primeiro estudo intitulado de \"Variação mensal da fitomassa da forragem em função do grau de cobertura do dossel em sistemas silvipastoris\", foi realizado em 3 monoculturas de 13 anos de idade, com área útil de 50 m x 30 m para coleta de pasto as mesmas efectuadas mensalmente. Os resultados apresentaram que não há relação significativa entre a cobertura do dossel e fitomassa da forragem pelo caso de que o sub-bosque estava muito sombreado. Entretanto, houve uma relação indireta entre área basal e fitomassa. Evidenciando-se que o talhão de Eucalipto urograndis apresentou as melhores condições de crescimento e disponibilidade de materia seca mensal para Bachiaria decumbens além de obter a maior porcentagem de folha entre todos os tratamentos. Ao contrario, no talhão de Pinus tecunumanii, foi encontrada a menor disponibilidade de materia seca mensal e por consequência, menor porcentagem de folha. O segundo estudo foi chamado de: \"Disponibilidade de fitomassa de B. decumbens, em um sistema silvipastoril com eucalipto: o papel da radiação\" onde o componente florestal foi o eucalyptus (COP-1377) de 2 anos de idade plantado em uma área útil de 10 ha, dividido em 3 tratamentos (onda longa-OL (39 m), onda curta-OC (21 m), e testemunha-T) e instalado em 4 blocos distintos. Foram realizadas duas coletas dutante o período de verão e de inverno, onde foi possível verificar que o tratamento OL mostrou maior disponibilidade de fitomassa a 65% de irradiância além de obter maior porcentagem da fração folha. Este foi favorecido pelo maior espaçamento entre as aléias. Contudo, houve ataque de cigarinha na pastagem, mantendo a queda da disponibilidade no período de inverno. O terceiro estudo intitulado de: \"Variaçoes arquiteturais de uma monocultura de E. urograndis em função de sua posição espacial\", foi também realizado na monocultura do primeiro estudo, numa área de 7 ha. Para este estudo, realizou-se um inventario florestal, logo após, dividiu-se as árvores por sua classe diamétrica e selecionou-se aleatoriamente 60 árvores para cubagem, e destas, escolheu-se 15 para determinação da fitomassa e respectiva densidade da madeira. Para a obtenção da fitomassa dividiu-se as árvores em três frações de análise: tronco, galhos e folha. Além disso, as 15 árvores foram divididas em: bordadura, intermediária e centro da parcela, de acordo com a sua localização. Verificou-se que a bordadura apresentou os maiores crescimentos em DAP, altura, largura de copa e, que por consequência, obteve maior volume e fitomassa em todas suas frações. Também foi possível observar que tanto a bordadura quanto o centro apresentaram maior densidade básica em função da maior copa e altura das árvores incentivando a geração de mais fitomassa foliar. Finalmente conforme os três estudos realizados neste trabalho de pesquisa, concluiu-se que a radiação solar é fator chave na produtividade da cultura forrageira, demonstrando a necessidade de mais pesquisas sobre os sistemas agroforestais e silvipastoris para o sucesso de futuros emprendimentos.

El ecosistema de dehesa como reservorio de diversidad de insectos saproxílicos (Coleoptera y Diptera: Syrphidae) y factores que determinan sus ensambles

The “dehesa” (grassland with scattered oak trees) is a typical Mediterranean ecosystem from west Iberian Peninsula that has resulted from the transformation of the forest by clearing and brushwood removing and the landscape is maintained mainly bulls and/or Iberian pigs. This ecosystem is characterized by the presence of old scattered trees that are considered as “keystone-structures”, which favor the presence of a wide range of biodiversity, especially those species that are wood-dependent (saproxylic insects). Saproxylics are a diversified group involved in the recycling process of nutrients in forest, and thus they are considered as a bioindicator group of the quality and conservation status of habitats, including a wide number of species under some categories of threat according the IUCN criteria. It is widely recognized the importance of studying the main factors that determine the structure and distribution of species assemblages at both spatial and temporal scales, nevertheless, the saproxylic assemblages has been poorly studied from the temporal dimension. With this study we provide knowledge about the effect of the “dehesa” heterogeneity, species seasonality and distribution on this habitat and we highlight the importance of the maintaining of traditional practices as a tool for saproxylic insect diversity and conservation.

Successional stage after land abandonment modulates fire severity and post-fire recovery in a Mediterranean mountain landscape

This study analyses the effect of successional stage after farmland terrace abandonment on post-fire plant recovery in a Mediterranean landscape. Specific objectives of the study were to (1) compare fuel characteristics and fire severity in three successional stages after farmland abandonment – dry grassland, dense shrubland and pine stands; (2) analyse the effect of pre-fire successional stage and fire severity on vegetation recovery and (3) analyse the relative vulnerability (i.e. potential for ecosystem shift and soil degradation) to wildfires of the successional stages. We assessed 30 abandoned terraces (15 unburned and 15 burned), with diverse successional stages, on the Xortà Range (south-east Spain). Post-fire recovery was measured 1, 4 and 7 years after fire. The successional stages varied in aboveground biomass, litter amount, vertical structure and continuity of plant cover, and flammability. Dry grassland showed the lowest fire severity, whereas no differences in severity were found between shrubland and pine stands. One year after fire, plant cover was inversely related to fire severity; this relationship attenuated with time after fire. Post-fire recovery of pine stands and shrubland led in both cases to shrublands, contributing to landscape homogenisation. The pine stands showed the largest changes in composition due to fire and the lowest post-fire plant recovery – a sign of high vulnerability to fire.

Land Use Map, Cincinnati Region, Ohio, 1975 (Raster Image)

This layer is a georeferenced raster image of the historic paper map entitled: OKI regional land use : 1975. It was published by OKI Regional Planning Authority in 1975. Scale [ca. 1:5,000]. Covers Cincinnati Region, Ohio including Butler, Clermont, Hamilton, Warren counties, Ohio; Boone, Campbell, and Kenton counties, Kentucky; and Dearborn and Ohio counties, Indiana. The image inside the map neatline is georeferenced to the surface of the earth and fit to the Ohio South State Plane NAD 1983 coordinate system (in Feet) (Fipszone 3402). All map collar and inset information is also available as part of the raster image, including any inset maps, profiles, statistical tables, directories, text, illustrations, index maps, legends, or other information associated with the principal map. This map is colored to show land use categories: Urban residential ; Suburban residential ; Commercial ; Institutional/Service ; Utilities ; Industrial ; Resource extraction ; Recreational/Open space ; Cropland ; Grassland ; Woodland ; Water. It also shows features as major roads, drainage, administrative and political boundaries, and more. This layer is part of a selection of digitally scanned and georeferenced historic maps from The Harvard Map Collection as part of the Imaging the Urban Environment project. Maps selected for this project represent major urban areas and cities of the world, at various time periods. These maps typically portray both natural and manmade features at a large scale. The selection represents a range of regions, originators, ground condition dates, scales, and purposes.

Potential impact of Wild boar (Sus scrofa) on Pheasant (Phasianus colchicus) nesting success

In recent decades wild boar have greatly increased in Europe due a combination of environmental and human factors. Because of a high reproduction rate, wild boar cause conflicts with human activities and in particularly agriculture. However, there are concerns also about environmental impact and in particular on ground nesting birds. Our study aim to evaluate the potential impact of wild boar on pheasants nests. Predation rates were compared between two areas with different wild boar abundance and between nests placed in fenced plots with no wild boar access (but accessible to other predators) and open plots in which the wild boar gains access. Predation rate by wild boar in the area with higher wild boar abundance was 61.5% whereas in the area with lower abundance was 16.0%. In plots with free access, wild boar predation was 34.2% whereas in exclusion plots we did not registered predation by wild boar. Moreover, wild boar resulted the main nest predator (total loss 22.8%). Our findings suggest that wild boar could have e strong impact on pheasant reproductive success.

Enriching plant diversity in grasslands by large-scale experimental sward disturbance and seed addition along gradients of land-use intensity

Aims The relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning is among the most active areas of ecological research. Furthermore, enhancing the diversity of degraded ecosystems is a major goal in applied restoration ecology. In grasslands, many species may be locally absent due to dispersal or microsite limitation and may therefore profit from mechanical disturbance of the resident vegetation. We established a seed addition and disturbance experiment across several grassland sites of different land use to test whether plant diversity can be increased in these grasslands. Additionally, the experiment will allow us testing the consequences of increased plant diversity for ecosystem processes and for the diversity of other taxa in real-world ecosystems. Here we present details of the experimental design and report results from the first vegetation survey one year after disturbance and seed addition. Moreover, we tested whether the effects of seed addition and disturbance varied among grassland depending on their land use or pre-disturbance plant diversity. Methods A full-factorial experiment was installed in 73 grasslands in three regions across Germany. Grasslands were under regular agricultural use, but varied in the type and the intensity of management, thereby representing the range of management typical for large parts of Central Europe. The disturbance treatment consisted of disturbing the top 10 cm of the sward using a rotavator or rotary harrow. Seed addition consisted of sowing a high-diversity seed mixture of regional plant species. These species were all regionally present, but often locally absent, depending on the resident vegetation composition and richness of each grassland. Important findings One year after sward disturbance it had significantly increased cover of bare soil, seedling species richness and numbers of seedlings. Seed addition had increased plant species richness, but only in combination with sward disturbance. The increase in species richness, when both seed addition and disturbance was applied, was higher at high land-use intensity and low resident diversity. Thus, we show that at least the early recruitment of many species is possible also at high land-use intensity, indicating the potential to restore and enhance biodiversity of species-poor agricultural grasslands. Our newly established experiment provides a unique platform for broad-scale research on the land-use dependence of future trajectories of vegetation diversity and composition and their effects on ecosystem functioning.

Tropical climate and vegetation simulations during the Heinrich event 1 using an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) - the University of Victoria Earth System-Climate Model (UVic ESCM)

Abrupt climate changes from 18 to 15 thousand years before present (kyr BP) associated with Heinrich Event 1 (HE1) had a strong impact on vegetation patterns not only at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, but also in the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean. To gain a better understanding of the linkage between high and low latitudes, we used the University of Victoria (UVic) Earth System-Climate Model (ESCM) with dynamical vegetation and land surface components to simulate four scenarios of climate-vegetation interaction: the pre-industrial era, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and a Heinrich-like event with two different climate backgrounds (interglacial and glacial). We calculated mega-biomes from the plant-functional types (PFTs) generated by the model to allow for a direct comparison between model results and palynological vegetation reconstructions. Our calculated mega-biomes for the pre-industrial period and the LGM corresponded well with biome reconstructions of the modern and LGM time slices, respectively, except that our pre-industrial simulation predicted the dominance of grassland in southern Europe and our LGM simulation resulted in more forest cover in tropical and sub-tropical South America. The HE1-like simulation with a glacial climate background produced sea-surface temperature patterns and enhanced inter-hemispheric thermal gradients in accordance with the "bipolar seesaw" hypothesis. We found that the cooling of the Northern Hemisphere caused a southward shift of those PFTs that are indicative of an increased desertification and a retreat of broadleaf forests in West Africa and northern South America. The mega-biomes from our HE1 simulation agreed well with paleovegetation data from tropical Africa and northern South America. Thus, according to our model-data comparison, the reconstructed vegetation changes for the tropical regions around the Atlantic Ocean were physically consistent with the remote effects of a Heinrich event under a glacial climate background.

Drivers of multi-scale plant community structure in agricultural field margins of South Korea

This data set describes the distribution of a total of 90 plant species growing on field margins of an agricultural landscape in the Haean-myun catchment in South Korea. We conducted our survey between July and August 2011 in 100 sampling plots, covering the whole catchment. In each plot we measured three environmental variables: slope, width of the field margin, and management type (i.e. "managed" for field margins that had signs of management activities from the ongoing season such as cutting or spraying herbicides and "unmanaged" for field margins that had been left untouched in the season). For the botanical survey each plot was sampled using three subplots of one square meter per subplot; subplots were 4 m apart from each other. In each subplot, we estimated three different vegetation characteristics: vegetation cover (i.e. the percentage of ground covered by vegetation), species richness (i.e. the number of observed species) and species abundance (i.e. the number of observed individuals / species). We calculated the percentage of the non-farmed habitats by creating buffer zones of 100, 200, 300, 400 and 500 m radii around each plot using data provided by (Seo et al. 2014). Non-farmed habitats included field margins, fallows, forest, riparian areas, pasture and grassland.

Maps (pdf) and raster images (tif) of predicted rural land cover suitability under current (2010) conditions and future climate scenarios

This study projects land cover probabilities under climate change for corn (maize), soybeans, spring and winter wheat, winter wheat-soybean double cropping, cotton, grassland and forest across 16 central U.S. states at a high spatial resolution, while also taking into account the influence of soil characteristics and topography. The scenarios span three oceanic-atmospheric global circulation models, three Representative Concentration Pathways, and three time periods (2040, 2070, 2100). As climate change intensifies, the suitable area for all six crops display large northward shifts. Total suitable area for spring wheat, followed by corn and soybeans, diminish. Suitable area for winter wheat and for winter wheat-soybean double-cropping expand northward, while cotton suitability migrates to new, more northerly, locations. Suitability for forest intensifies in the south while yielding to crops in the north; grassland intensifies in the western Great Plains as crop suitability diminishes. To maintain current broad geographic patterns of land use, large changes in the thermal response of crops such as corn would be required. A transition from corn-soybean to winter wheat-soybean doubling cropping is an alternative adaptation.