Money never sleeps – overnight returns in equity markets

The present research analyses overnight returns’ outperformance in relation to daytime returns. In a first stage, it will be assessed whether these returns are robust throughout time, markets and across different scopes of analysis (e.g. weekdays, months, states of the economy). In a second stage, several hypothesis will be empirically tested, in an attempt to understand what drives non-trading period returns (e.g. liquidity, market volatility). Even though several authors have analysed overnight returns and suggested several explanatory factors, there seems to be no consensus in the literature regarding its drivers.

Decisions of technology innovation: the role of indicators

This work presents research conducted to understand the role of indicators in decisions of technology innovation. A gap was detected in the literature of innovation and technology assessment about the use and influence of indicators in this type of decision. It was important to address this gap because indicators are often frequent elements of innovation and technology assessment studies. The research was designed to determine the extent of the use and influence of indicators in decisions of technology innovation, to characterize the role of indicators in these decisions, and to understand how indicators are used in these decisions. The latter involved the test of four possible explanatory factors: the type and phase of decision, and the context and process of construction of evidence. Furthermore, it focused on three Portuguese innovation groups: public researchers, business R&D&I leaders and policymakers. The research used a combination of methods to collect quantitative and qualitative information, such as surveys, case studies and social network analysis. This research concluded that the use of indicators is different from their influence in decisions of technology innovation. In fact, there is a high use of indicators in these decisions, but lower and differentiated differences in their influence in each innovation group. This suggests that political-behavioural methods are also involved in the decisions to different degrees. The main social influences in the decisions came mostly from hierarchies, knowledge-based contacts and users. Furthermore, the research established that indicators played mostly symbolic roles in decisions of policymakers and business R&D&I leaders, although their role with researchers was more differentiated. Indicators were also described as helpful instruments to conduct a reasonable interpretation of data and to balance options in innovation and technology assessments studies, in particular when contextualised, described in detail and with discussion upon the options made. Results suggest that there are four main explanatory factors for the role of indicators in these decisions: First, the type of decision appears to be a factor to consider when explaining the role of indicators. In fact, each type of decision had different influences on the way indicators are used, and each type of decision used different types of indicators. Results for policy-making were particularly different from decisions of acquisition and development of products/technology. Second, the phase of the decision can help to understand the role indicators play in these decisions. Results distinguished between two phases detected in all decisions – before and after the decision – as well as two other phases that can be used to complement the decision process and where indicators can be involved. Third, the context of decision is an important factor to consider when explaining the way indicators are taken into consideration in policy decisions. In fact, the role of indicators can be influenced by the particular context of the decision maker, in which all types of evidence can be selected or downplayed. More importantly, the use of persuasive analytical evidence appears to be related with the dispute existent in the policy context. Fourth and last, the process of construction of evidence is a factor to consider when explaining the way indicators are involved in these decisions. In fact, indicators and other evidence were brought to the decision processes according to their availability and capacity to support the different arguments and interests of the actors and stakeholders. In one case, an indicator lost much persuasion strength with the controversies that it went through during the decision process. Therefore, it can be argued that the use of indicators is high but not very influential; their role is mostly symbolic to policymakers and business decisions, but varies among researchers. The role of indicators in these decisions depends on the type and phase of the decision and the context and process of construction of evidence. The latter two are related to the particular context of each decision maker, the existence of elements of dispute and controversies that influence the way indicators are introduced in the decision-making process.

Improving accuracy of inflation forecasts using macroeconomic information

This thesis examines the effects of macroeconomic factors on inflation level and volatility in the Euro Area to improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts with econometric modelling. Inflation aggregates for the EU as well as inflation levels of selected countries are analysed, and the difference between these inflation estimates and forecasts are documented. The research proposes alternative models depending on the focus and the scope of inflation forecasts. I find that models with a Generalized AutoRegressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) in mean process have better explanatory power for inflation variance compared to the regular GARCH models. The significant coefficients are different in EU countries in comparison to the aggregate EU-wide forecast of inflation. The presence of more pronounced GARCH components in certain countries with more stressed economies indicates that inflation volatility in these countries are likely to occur as a result of the stressed economy. In addition, other economies in the Euro Area are found to exhibit a relatively stable variance of inflation over time. Therefore, when analysing EU inflation one have to take into consideration the large differences on country level and focus on those one by one.

Criminosos popularizados na narrativa de divulgação (De 1838 aos Alvores da República)

O presente estudo incide sobre obras impressas que tomaram como motivo central as «façanhas» de criminosos com referência histórica celebrizados em Portugal na segunda metade do século XIX e inícios de XX e mostra que, enquanto narrativas elaboradas para o grande público, os textos foram não só um reflexo da popularidade prévia dos famigerados transgressores, como também um fator incontornável da sua «lendarização» ao longo de décadas. São as seguintes as figuras dos infratores que protagonizaram as ficções em apreço: José Joaquim de Sousa Reis, ou «o Remexido» (1797-1838), Diogo Alves, ou «o Pancada» (1810-1841), Francisco de Matos Lobo (1814-1842), José Teixeira da Silva, ou «o José do Telhado» (1816-1875), João Victor da Silva Brandão, ou «o João Brandão de Midões» (1825-1880), e Vicente Urbino de Freitas (1859-1913). A tese agora apresentada aborda um corpus textual de características singulares, nunca antes coligido nem estudado. Comprova que os textos sobre as figuras criminosas tiveram uma função iminentemente noticiosa, pedagógico-edificante e política, apropriando-se de relatos orais, adotando procedimentos de atestação da veracidade (transcrição de documentos na primeira pessoa, referenciação cronológica, espacial, geográfica dos eventos, alusão às fontes) e incorporando diversas fontes do conhecimento dos crimes, quer de origem popular (geralmente designadas de «musa popular», «tradição»), quer de caráter erudito e teórico-científico («estudo», «estudo social»). Assim, foram analisadas as condições históricas excecionais nas quais as ficções emergiram: as características específicas do seu universo editorial, a apropriação a um público amplo (o formato de coleção, uso de sinopses e de outros elementos gráficos), as regularidades discursivas das obras (ocorrência de determinados dispositivos de organização textual), os procedimentos narrativos (recurso abundante a paratextos com intuito explicativo e aproximação a modalidades ficcionais conhecidas do público da época) e, ainda, as configurações imagéticas inspiradas nos discursos oficiais (influência de ciências e doutrinas epocais emergentes, como a criminologia, a antropologia criminal, a frenologia, a psiquiatria, a sociologia). Em suma, estas edições produzidas em diversos contextos e por um elenco autoral heterogéneo não só viveram da relação com as edições predecessoras, ao longo de gerações, como recriaram e ampliaram as «façanhas» dos transgressores em função de diversos propósitos e fontes: ampla divulgação dos casos criminais, condenação pública dos infratores, análise médico-científica dos sujeitos culpados, especulação política, pressão sobre o foro judiciário, edificação moral do público leitor. Trata-se, sem dúvida, de produções únicas, que erigiram a comemoração dos facínoras e sucessivamente reinscreveram as suas histórias reais na problemática do homem criminal e na consciência ética do seu tempo.

Determinant factors to merger control decisions in Portugal

The present paper aims to investigate the determinant factors of Portuguese merger control. Our sample comprises 652 M&A cases occurred between January of 2003 and September of 2015. Through a probit model we have tested the relevance of product and geographic market, entry barriers, type of concentration, merger effects, year of decision and the President of the Competition Authority at the time. The results suggests that the conglomerate and vertical effects, the existence of barriers to entry as well as the number of regulatory agencies listened are the main explanatory variables to determine a need for an in-depth investigation and to make a final decision. According to the evidence, cases cleared at Phase 1 are increasing over time. The number of prohibited mergers is close to zero.

Typology based method for choosing old masonry walls inspection procedures

The diagnosis of historic masonry walls is an intricate and complex field and has been an object of research for many years. This paper aims to propose practical methodologies for the diagnosis of historic masonry walls, specifically based on their typological characteristics. In order to develop such procedures, information relating to historic masonry typologies in Portugal, classified as rural, urban and military was gathered and techniques for the assessment of historic masonry were studied. All information was integrated to develop a pattern typology oriented methodology. Developed methodology was tested and validated in a small diagnosis campaign carried out in the Guimarães Castle. Methodology was proven to be advantageous and although the study is limited and focused on the Portuguese architectural specificities, it still holds global classifications, and therefore can be useful for any diagnosis procedure of a historic masonry wall.

Ecos do tempo. A mobilidade de investigadores e estudantes brasileiros em Portugal

A investigação que apresentamos, de caráter exploratório, recaiu sobre histórias biográficas de brasileiros que escolhem Portugal para prosseguir formação e ou investigação. Procura-se encontrar na sua experiência elos de ligação explicativos sobre as motivações e os processos que os trazem para Portugal, assim como as expetativas e os projetos que comportam para os seus futuros e que incluem, ou não, este país. Temos em conta, especialmente, a forma como essa narrativa transporta sentidos identitários decorrentes das formas de relacionamento intercultural e político entre Portugal e Brasil e formas de cooperação implícitas, assim como mapas representacionais acerca dos lugares de eleição para desenvolvimento de carreiras científicas e académicas. A nossa pesquisa incide sobre as informações recolhidas através de um inquérito por questionário e entrevistas realizadas junto de estudantes e bolseiros brasileiros em Portugal.

Life cycle analysis of zero waste management for Jonggol green city

A Zero waste management is believed to be one of methods to gain sustainability in urban areas. Take advantages of resources as enough as the needs and process it until the last part to be wasted is a contribution to take care the environment for the next generation. Reduce, reuse, and recycle are three simplesactivities which are until nowadays consideredas the back bone of zero waste. Jonggolgreen city is a new urban area in Indonesia with a 100 ha of surface area zoned as education tourism area. It is an independent area with pure natural resources of water, air, and land to be managed and protected. It is planned as green city through zero waste management since2013. In this preliminary period, a monitoring tool is being prepared by applying a Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) for urban areas [1]. This paper will present an explanatory assessment ofthe zero waste management for Jonggolgreen city. The existing situation will be examined through LCA and afterwards,the new program and the proposed green design to gain the next level of zero waste will be discussed. The purpose is to track the persistence of the commitment and the perception of the necessary innovationsin order to achieve the ideal behavior level of LCA.

Using customer lifetime value to improve the prediction of bank deposit subscription in telemarketing campaigns

Customer lifetime value (LTV) enables using client characteristics, such as recency, frequency and monetary (RFM) value, to describe the value of a client through time in terms of profitability. We present the concept of LTV applied to telemarketing for improving the return-on-investment, using a recent (from 2008 to 2013) and real case study of bank campaigns to sell long- term deposits. The goal was to benefit from past contacts history to extract additional knowledge. A total of twelve LTV input variables were tested, un- der a forward selection method and using a realistic rolling windows scheme, highlighting the validity of five new LTV features. The results achieved by our LTV data-driven approach using neural networks allowed an improvement up to 4 pp in the Lift cumulative curve for targeting the deposit subscribers when compared with a baseline model (with no history data). Explanatory knowledge was also extracted from the proposed model, revealing two highly relevant LTV features, the last result of the previous campaign to sell the same product and the frequency of past client successes. The obtained results are particularly valuable for contact center companies, which can improve pre- dictive performance without even having to ask for more information to the companies they serve.

Timber frames as an earthquake resisting system in Portugal

Timber frames are commonly adopted as a structural element in many countries with specific characteristics varying locally, in termsof geometry and materials.Their diffusion in Southern European countries is linked to their good seismic-resistant capacity, but only in the last decade interest has grown for this structural typology, and studies have been performed to better understand their behaviour. In this contribution, a brief state of the art on existing timber frame building typologies is presented, focusing on their seismic-resistant characteristics. Additionally, an overview of possible strengthening solutions, adopted both in practice, and tested experimentally are presented. Their performance when applied to walls and connections is also discussed.

Seismic vulnerability of vernacular buildings in urban centres: the case of Vila Real de Santo António

Following detailed studies of Portuguese vernacular building typologies, this paper deals with buildings located in historical urban centres. An analysis of the history of the urban centre and, in particular, of some vernacular buildings is enhanced. Additionally, a discussion on the influence of changes of the geometry, and on added built volumes to original buildings in the seismic vulnerability of the buildings is also provided.

Application of near surface mounted (NSM) strengthening technique to traditional timber frame walls

Timber frame buildings are well known as an efficient seismic resistant structure popular all over the world not only due to their seismic performance, but also to their low cost and the strength they offer. These constructions still exist today and it is important to be able to preserve them, so a better knowledge on their behaviour is sought. Furthermore, historic technologies could be used even in modern constructions to build seismic resistant buildings using more natural materials with lesser costs. A great rehabilitation effort is being carried out on this type of buildings, as their neglect has led to decay or their change in use and alterations to the structure has led to the need to retrofit such buildings; only recently studies on their behaviour have become available and only a few of them address the issue of possible strengthening techniques for this kind of walls. In this scope, an innovative retrofitting technique (near surface mounted steel flat bars) is proposed and validated on traditional timber frame walls based on an extensive experimental program. The results of the static cyclic tests on distinct wall typologies retrofitted with the NSM technique are herein presented and discussed in detail. The main features on deformation, lateral stiffness, lateral resistance and seismic performance indexes are analysed

Analysis of integrated management systems from various perspectives

This article compiles the main topics addressed by management systems (MSs) literature concerningMSs integration by performing a systematic literature review. In this paper, it is intended to present themain limitations of non-integratedmanagement systems (IMSs), the main motivations driving an IMS implementation, the major resistances faced, the most common resultant benefits, the suitable guidelines and standards and the critical success factors. In addition, this paper addresses the issues concerning integration strategies and models, the integration levels or degrees achieved by an IMS and the audit function in an integrated context. The motivations that drive companies to integrate their management subsystems, the obstacles faced and the benefits collected may have internal or external origins. The publishing of standards guiding companies on how to integrate their management subsystems has been done mainly at a national level. There are several models that could be used in order to support companies in their management subsystems integration processes, and a sequential or an all-in strategy may be adopted. Four audit typologies can be distinguished, and the adoption of any of these typologies should consider resource availability and audit team know-how, among other features.

Instrumentos de políticas públicas do turismo: uma análise empírica dos municípios portugueses

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências da Administração

Spatio-temporal modelling of environmental data

Programa Doutoral em Matemática e Aplicações.