Sun exposure and interaction with family history in risk of melanoma, Queensland, Australia

Sun exposure is the main environmental risk factor for melanoma, but the timing of exposure during life that confers increased risk is controversial. Here we provide the first report of the association between lifetime and age-specific cumulative ultraviolet exposure and cutaneous melanoma in Queensland, Australia, an area of high solar radiation, and examine the association separately for families at high, intermediate and low familial melanoma risk. Subjects were a population-based sample of melanoma cases diagnosed and registered in Queensland between 1982 and 1990 and their relatives. The analysis included 1,263 cases and relatives with confirmed cutaneous melanoma and 3,111 first-degree relatives without melanoma as controls. Data an lifetime residence and sun exposure, family history and other melanoma risk factors were collected by a mailed questionnaire. Using conditional multiple logistic regression with stratification by family, cumulative sun exposure in childhood and in adulthood after age 20 was significantly associated with melanoma, with estimated relative risks of 1.15 per 5,000 minimal erythemal doses (MEDs) from age 5 to 12 years, and 1.52 per 5 MEDs/day from age 20. There was no association with sun exposure in families at high familial melanoma risk. History of nonmelanoma skin cancer (relative risk [RR] = 1.26) and multiple sunburns (RR = 1.31) were significant risk factors. These findings indicate that sun exposure in childhood and in adulthood are important determinants of melanoma but not in those rare families with high melanoma susceptibility, in which genetic factors are likely to be more important. (C) 2002 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Atom lasers, coherent states, and coherence. I. Physically realizable ensembles of pure states

A laser, be it an optical laser or an atom laser, is an open quantum system that produces a coherent beam of bosons (photons or atoms, respectively). Far above threshold, the stationary state rho(ss) of the laser mode is a mixture of coherent-field states with random phase, or, equivalently, a Poissonian mixture of number states. This paper answers the question: can descriptions such as these, of rho(ss) as a stationary ensemble of pure states, be physically realized? Here physical realization is as defined previously by us [H. M. Wiseman and J. A. Vaccaro, Phys. Lett. A 250, 241 (1998)]: an ensemble of pure states for a particular system can be physically realized if, without changing the dynamics of the system, an experimenter can (in principle) know at any time that the system is in one of the pure-state members of the ensemble. Such knowledge can be obtained by monitoring the baths to which the system is coupled, provided that coupling is describable by a Markovian master equation. Using a family of master equations for the (atom) laser, we solve for the physically realizable (PR) ensembles. We find that for any finite self-energy chi of the bosons in the laser mode, the coherent-state ensemble is not PR; the closest one can come to it is an ensemble of squeezed states. This is particularly relevant for atom lasers, where the self-energy arising from elastic collisions is expected to be large. By contrast, the number-state ensemble is always PR. As the self-energy chi increases, the states in the PR ensemble closest to the coherent-state ensemble become increasingly squeezed. Nevertheless, there are values of chi for which states with well-defined coherent amplitudes are PR, even though the atom laser is not coherent (in the sense of having a Bose-degenerate output). We discuss the physical significance of this anomaly in terms of conditional coherence (and hence conditional Bose degeneracy).

Interactive expectations

In modeling expectation formation, economic agents are usually viewed as forming expectations adaptively or in accordance with some rationality postulate. We offer an alternative nonlinear model where agents exchange their opinions and information with each other. Such a model yields multiple equilibria, or attracting distributions, that are persistent but subject to sudden large jumps. Using German Federal Statistical Office economic indicators and German IFO Poll expectational data, we show that this kind of model performs well in simulation experiments. Focusing upon producers' expectations in the consumption goods sector, we also discover evidence that structural change in the interactive process occurred over the period of investigation (1970-1998). Specifically, interactions in expectation formation seem to have become less important over time.

The effect of soft tissue deloading tape on thoracic spine pressure pain thresholds in asymptomatic subjects

The application of tape to deload soft tissue is used in the management of thoracic spine pain. A reported clinical feature of this treatment is reduced tenderness of the spine during postero-anterior mobilizations. A randomized, single blind, placebo controlled, repeated measures design study was employed to investigate the effects of deloading tape on pressure pain threshold measurements at the level of the T7 spinous process in an asymptomatic group of 24 subjects. Pressure pain thresholds were assessed prior to and following the application of deloading tape, placebo sham tape and no-tape control conditions. All subjects received all three conditions in a randomized order on three separate days. Differences between the pre- and post-measurements were used as indicators of change in a subject's pressure pain threshold. No significant change in pressure pain threshold measurements was found between conditions. In summary, this study demonstrated that deloading tape applied to the level of the T7 spinous process did not significantly change pressure pain threshold measurements in asymptomatic subjects, raising the possibility that any pain relieving effect may well be conditional upon pain being present. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Improving attitude-behavior correspondence through exposure to normative support from a salient ingroup

Two experiments were conducted to test predictions derived from social identity/self-categorization theory concerning the role of group norms in attitude-behavior consistency. In Experiment 1, 160 students who could be classified as having a more or less certain target attitude were exposed to attitude congruent versus incongruent normative support from a relevant reference group (own university) under conditions of low versus high group salience. Experiment 2 was very similar in design and methodology (N=180), but a different correlate of attitude accessibility was used (an experimental manipulation of repeated expression), the target attitude was changed, and the reference group was gender. Across the 2 experiments there was consistent support for the hypothesis that participants would behave more in accordance with their attitudes when they received normative support for, rather than opposition to, their original attitude from a relevant reference group (i.e., their ingroup, not an outgroup). There was slightly weaker support for the second hypothesis that this effect would be stronger under high-than low-salience conditions. The third hypothesis (see Fazio, 1986), that attitude certainty and repeated expression of the attitude would strengthen attitude-behavior consistency, was well supported, as was the expectation that accessibility effects would be independent of reference group norm effects on attitude-behavior consistency.

Sensitivity and specificity of pooled faecal culture and serology as flock-screening tests for detection of ovine paratuberculosis in Australia

The flock-level sensitivity of pooled faecal culture and serological testing using AGID for the detection of ovine Johne's disease-infected flocks were estimated using non-gold-standard methods. The two tests were compared in an extensive field trial in 296 flocks in New South Wales during 1998. In each flock, a sample of sheep was selected and tested for ovine Johne's disease using both the AGID and pooled faecal culture. The flock-specificity of pooled faecal culture also was estimated from results of surveillance and market-assurance testing in New South Wales. The overall flock-sensitivity of pooled faecal culture was 92% (95% CI: 82.4 and 97.4%) compared to 61% (50.5 and 70.9%) for serology (assuming that both tests were 100% specific). In low-prevalence flocks (estimated prevalence

Recoverable reserves and support effects when optimizing open pit mine designs

Orebody modelling, support effects and the estimation of recoverable reserves are key parts of open pit optimization studies. A case study is presented on the estimation of recoverable reserves using an implementation of indicator kriging where metal quantity is used to select cutoffs, and support corrections founded on a conditional simulation approach. Mining selectivity is explored in the subsequent optimization study to compare results from indicator kriging of grade estimates on a regular size blocks and indicator kriging estimates on small size blocks. The use of indicator kriging models adjusted for a given selectivity and the use of grade proportions in each block for the optimization study, provide a presentation of the expected ore recovery for a predefined level of selectivity. The case study shows that indicator kriging estimation with full accounting of block grade distributions generates substantially better results in the pit optimization study. In addition, the adverse effects of small blocks and over-smoothing on optimization results are illustrated.

Audit of maternal and fetal outcomes in women treated for glucose intolerance during pregnancy

Objective To determine whether one should aim for glycaemia that is statistically 'normal' or for levels of glycaemia low enough to prevent macrosomia (if such a threshold exists) when glucose intolerance is detected during pregnancy Design An audit of pregnancy outcomes in women with impaired glucose tolerance in pregnancy as compared to a local age-matched reference group with normal glucose tolerance. Results Our study suggests that for most patients, more intensive therapy would not have been justified. Maternal smoking appeared to convey some 'advantages' in terms of neonatal outcomes, with reduction in large-for-gestational-age (LGA) infants and jaundice in babies of impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) mothers. Conclusions These observations demonstrate the importance of considering risk factors other than GTT results in analysing pregnancy outcomes, while emphasising that 'normalisation' of fetal size should not be our only therapeutic endpoint. Our detailed outcome review allows us to reassure patients with GDM that with current treatment protocols, they should have every expectation of a positive pregnancy outcome.

delta N-15 values of tropical savanna and monsoon forest species reflect root specialisations and soil nitrogen status

A large number of herbaceous and woody plants from tropical woodland, savanna, and monsoon forest were analysed to determine the impact of environmental factors (nutrient and water availability, fire) and biological factors (microbial associations, systematics) on plant delta(15)N values. Foliar delta(15)N values of herbaceous and woody species were not related to growth form or phenology, but a strong relationship existed between mycorrhizal status and plant delta(15)N. In woodland and savanna, woody species with ectomycorrhizal (ECM) associations and putative N-2-fixing species with ECM/arbuscular (AM) associations had lowest foliar delta(15)N values (1.0-0.6parts per thousand), AM species had mostly intermediate delta(15)N values (average +0.6parts per thousand), while non-mycorrhizal Proteaceae had highest delta(15)N values (+2.9 to +4.1parts per thousand). Similar differences in foliar delta(15)N were observed between AM (average 0.1 and 0.2parts per thousand) and non-mycorrhizal (average +0.8 and +0.3parts per thousand) herbaceous species in woodland and savanna. Leguminous savanna species had significantly higher leaf N contents (1.8-2.5% N) than non-fixing species (0.9-1.2% N) indicating substantial N acquisition via N-2 fixation. Monsoon forest species had similar leaf N contents (average 2.4% N) and positive delta(15)N values (+0.9 to +2.4parts per thousand). Soil nitrification and plant NO3- use was substantially higher in monsoon forest than in woodland or savanna. In the studied communities, higher soil N content and nitrification rates were associated with more positive soil delta(15)N and plant delta(15)N. In support of this notion, Ficus, a high NO3- using taxa associated with NO3- rich sites in the savanna, had the highest delta(15)N values of all AM species in the savanna. delta(15)N of xylem sap was examined as a tool for studying plant delta(15)N relations. delta(15)N of xylem sap varied seasonally and between differently aged Acacia and other savanna species. Plants from annually burnt savanna had significantly higher delta(15)N values compared to plants from less frequently burnt savanna, suggesting that foliar N-15 natural abundance could be used as marker for assessing historic fire regimes. Australian woodland and savanna species had low leaf delta(15)N and N content compared to species from equivalent African communities indicating that Australian biota are the more N depauperate. The largest differences in leaf delta(15)N occurred between the dominant ECM Australian and African savanna (miombo) species, which were depleted and enriched in N-15, respectively. While the depleted delta(15)N of Australian ECM species are similar to those of previous reports on ECM species in natural plant communities, the N-15-enriched delta(15)N of African ECM species represent an anomaly.

A note on quasi-stationary distributions of birth-death processes and the SIS logistic epidemic

For Markov processes on the positive integers with the origin as an absorbing state, Ferrari, Kesten, Martinez and Picco studied the existence of quasi-stationary and limiting conditional distributions by characterizing quasi-stationary distributions as fixed points of a transformation Phi on the space of probability distributions on {1, 2,.. }. In the case of a birth-death process, the components of Phi(nu) can be written down explicitly for any given distribution nu. Using this explicit representation, we will show that Phi preserves likelihood ratio ordering between distributions. A conjecture of Kryscio and Lefevre concerning the quasi-stationary distribution of the SIS logistic epidemic follows as a corollary.

On the robustness of short-term interest rate models

This paper investigates the robustness of a range of short–term interest rate models. We examine the robustness of these models over different data sets, time periods, sampling frequencies, and estimation techniques. We examine a range of popular one–factor models that allow the conditional mean (drift) and conditional variance (diffusion) to be functions of the current short rate. We find that parameter estimates are highly sensitive to all of these factors in the eight countries that we examine. Since parameter estimates are not robust, these models should be used with caution in practice.

Do commercial fishers aggregate around marine reserves? Evidence from Big Creek Marine Ecological Reserve, central California

Marine reserves have been widely touted as a promising strategy for managing fisheries and protecting marine biodiversity. However, their establishment can involve substantial social conflict and may not produce the anticipated biological and economic benefits. A crucial factor associated with the success of marine reserves for enhancing fisheries and protecting biodiversity is the spatial distribution of fishing activity. Fishers may be attracted to the perimeter of a reserve in expectation of spillover of adult fishes. This concentration of effort can reduce spillover of fish to the surrounding fishery and has major implications for the effectiveness of reserves in achieving ecological and socioeconomic goals. We examined the spatial distribution of fishing activity relative to California's Big Creek Marine Ecological Reserve and found no aggregation near the reserve. We discuss the factors driving the spatial distribution of fishing activity relative to the reserve and the relevance of that distribution to the performance and evaluation of marine reserves.

The modeling of turbulent reactive flows based on multiple mapping conditioning

A new modeling approach-multiple mapping conditioning (MMC)-is introduced to treat mixing and reaction in turbulent flows. The model combines the advantages of the probability density function and the conditional moment closure methods and is based on a certain generalization of the mapping closure concept. An equivalent stochastic formulation of the MMC model is given. The validity of the closuring hypothesis of the model is demonstrated by a comparison with direct numerical simulation results for the three-stream mixing problem. (C) 2003 American Institute of Physics.

Prospects for whole genome linkage disequilibrium mapping in domestic dog breeds

Linkage disequilibrium (LD) mapping is commonly used as a fine mapping tool in human genome mapping and has been used with some success for initial disease gene isolation in certain isolated inbred human populations. An understanding of the population history of domestic dog breeds suggests that LID mapping could be routinely utilized in this species for initial genome-wide scans. Such an approach offers significant advantages over traditional linkage analysis. Here, we demonstrate, using canine copper toxicosis in the Bedlington terrier as the model, that LID mapping could be reasonably expected to be a useful strategy in low-resolution, genome-wide scans in pure-bred dogs. Significant LID was demonstrated over distances up to 33.3 cM. It is very unlikely, for a number of reasons discussed, that this result could be extrapolated to the rest of the genome. It is, however, consistent with the expectation given the population structure of canine breeds and, in this breed at least, with the hypothesis that it may be possible to utilize LID in a genome-wide scan. In this study, LD mapping confirmed the location of the copper toxicosis in Bedlington terrier gene (CT-BT) and was able to do so in a population that was refractory to traditional linkage analysis.

Photon-added detection

The production of conditional quantum states and quantum operations based on the result of measurement is now seen as a key tool in quantum information and metrology. We propose a different type of photon number detector. It functions nondeterministically, but when successful, it has high fidelity. The detector, which makes use of an n-photon auxiliary Fock state and high efficiency homodyne detection, allows a tunable trade-off between fidelity and probability. By sacrificing probability of operation, an excellent approximation to a photon-number detector is achieved.