Multirating decision model validation: the relevance of the quality of the securitization issues

Rating enables the information asymmetry existing in the issuer-investor relationship to be reduced, particularly for issues with a high degree of complexity, as is the case of securitizations. However, there may be a serious conflict of interest between the issuer’s choice and remuneration of the agency and the credit rating awarded, resulting in lower quality and information power of the published rating. In this paper, we propose an explicative model of the number of ratings requested, by analyzing the relevance of the number of ratings to measure the reliability, where multirating is shown to be associated to the quality, size, liquidity and the degree of information asymmetry relating to the issue. Thus, we consider that the regulatory changes that foster the widespread publication of simultaneous ratings could help to alleviate the problem of rating model arbitrage and the crisis of confidence in credit ratings in general and in the securitization issues, in particular.

Technologies and Methodologies for the Detection of Harmful Algae and Their Toxins, St Petersburg, Florida, Oct 22-24 2008 : workshop proceedings

The Alliance for Coastal Technologies (ACT) Workshop "Technologies and Methodologies for the Detection of Harmful Algae and their Toxins" convened in St. Petersburg, Florida, October 22- 24, 2008 and was co-sponsored by ACT (http://act-us.info); the Cooperative Institute for Coastal and Estuarine Environmental Technology (CICEET, http://ciceet.unh.edu); and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC, http://www.myfwc.com). Participants from various sectors, including researchers, coastal decision makers, and technology vendors, collaborated to exchange information and build consensus. They focused on the status of currently available detection technologies and methodologies for harmful algae (HA) and their toxins, provided direction for developing operational use of existing technology, and addressed requirements for future technology developments in this area. Harmful algal blooms (HABs) in marine and freshwater systems are increasingly common worldwide and are known to cause extensive ecological, economic, and human health problems. In US waters, HABs are encountered in a growing number of locations and are also increasing in duration and severity. This expansion in HABs has led to elevated incidences of poisonous seafood, toxin-contaminated drinking water, mortality of fish and other animals dependent upon aquatic resources (including protected species), public health and economic impacts in coastal and lakeside communities, losses to aquaculture enterprises, and long-term aquatic ecosystem changes. This meeting represented the fourth ACT sponsored workshop that has addressed technology developments for improved monitoring of water-born pathogens and HA species in some form. A primary motivation was to assess the need and community support for an ACT-led Performance Demonstration of Harmful Algae Detection Technologies and Methodologies in order to facilitate their integration into regional ocean observing systems operations. The workshop focused on the identification of region-specific monitoring needs and available technologies and methodologies for detection/quantification of harmful algal species and their toxins along the US marine and freshwater coasts. To address this critical environmental issue, several technologies and methodologies have been, or are being, developed to detect and quantify various harmful algae and their associated toxins in coastal marine and freshwater environments. There are many challenges to nationwide adoption of HAB detection as part of a core monitoring infrastructure: the geographic uniqueness of primary algal species of concern around the country, the variety of HAB impacts, and the need for a clear vision of the operational requirements for monitoring the various species. Nonetheless, it was a consensus of the workshop participants that ACT should support the development of HA detection technology performance demonstrations but that these would need to be tuned regionally to algal species and toxins of concern in order to promote the adoption of state of the art technologies into HAR monitoring networks. [PDF contains 36 pages]

Valuing Expansions of the Electricity Transmission Network under Uncertainty: The Binodal Case

Transmission investments are currently needed to meet an increasing electricity demand, to address security of supply concerns, and to reach carbon-emissions targets. A key issue when assessing the benefits from an expanded grid concerns the valuation of the uncertain cash flows that result from the expansion. We propose a valuation model that accommodates both physical and economic uncertainties following the Real Options approach. It combines optimization techniques with Monte Carlo simulation. We illustrate the use of our model in a simplified, two-node grid and assess the decision whether to invest or not in a particular upgrade. The generation mix includes coal-and natural gas-fired stations that operate under carbon constraints. The underlying parameters are estimated from observed market data.

Group size and decision rules in legislative bargaining

We conduct experiments to investigate the effects of different majority requirements on bargaining outcomes in small and large groups. In particular, we use a Baron-Ferejohn protocol and investigate the effects of decision rules on delay (number of bargaining rounds needed to reach agreement) and measures of "fairness" (inclusiveness of coalitions, equality of the distribution within a coalition). We find that larger groups and unanimity rule are associated with significantly larger decision making costs in the sense that first round proposals more often fail, leading to more costly delay. The higher rate of failure under unanimity rule and in large groups is a combination of three facts: (1) in these conditions, a larger number of individuals must agree, (2) an important fraction of individuals reject offers below the equal share, and (3) proposers demand more (relative to the equal share) in large groups.

Size- And Temperature-Dependent Thermal Expansion Coefficient Of A Nanofilm

The thermal expansion coefficient (TEC) of an ideal crystal is derived by using a method of Boltzmann statistics. The Morse potential energy function is adopted to show the dependence of the TEC on the temperature. By taking the effects of the surface relaxation and the surface energy into consideration, the dimensionless TEC of a nanofilm is derived. It is shown that with decreasing thickness, the TEC can increase or decrease, depending on the surface relaxation of the nanofilm.

Decision support systems optimising effluent release in sub tropical estuarine environment - An Australian case study

Gold Coast Water is responsible for the management of the water and wastewater assets of the City of the Gold Coast on Australia’s east coast. Treated wastewater is released at the Gold Coast Seaway on an outgoing tide in order for the plume to be dispersed before the tide changes and renters the Broadwater estuary. Rapid population growth over the past decade has placed increasing demands on the receiving waters for the release of the City’s effluent. The Seaway SmartRelease Project is designed to optimise the release of the effluent from the City’s main wastewater treatment plant in order to minimise the impact of the estuarine water quality and maximise the cost efficiency of pumping. In order to do this an optimisation study that involves water quality monitoring, numerical modelling and a web based decision support system was conducted. An intensive monitoring campaign provided information on water levels, currents, winds, waves, nutrients and bacterial levels within the Broadwater. These data were then used to calibrate and verify numerical models using the MIKE by DHI suite of software. The decision support system then collects continually measured data such as water levels, interacts with the WWTP SCADA system, runs the models in forecast mode and provides the optimal time window to release the required amount of effluent from the WWTP. The City’s increasing population means that the length of time available for releasing the water with minimal impact may be exceeded within 5 years. Optimising the release of the treated water through monitoring, modelling and a decision support system has been an effective way of demonstrating the limited environmental impact of the expected short term increase in effluent disposal procedures. (PDF contains 5 pages)

Analysis of a transcriptional network involving PU.1, Notch, and Gata3 in the lymphomyeloid lineage decision during early T-cell development

Hematopoiesis is a well-established system used to study developmental choices amongst cells with multiple lineage potentials, as well as the transcription factor network interactions that drive these developmental paths. Multipotent progenitors travel from the bone marrow to the thymus where T-cell development is initiated and these early T-cell precursors retain lineage plasticity even after initiating a T-cell program. The development of these early cells is driven by Notch signaling and the combinatorial expression of many transcription factors, several of which are also involved in the development of other cell lineages. The ETS family transcription factor PU.1 is involved in the development of progenitor, myeloid, and lymphoid cells, and can divert progenitor T-cells from the T-lineage to a myeloid lineage. This diversion of early T-cells by PU.1 can be blocked by Notch signaling. The PU.1 and Notch interaction creates a switch wherein PU.1 in the presence of Notch promotes T-cell identity and PU.1 in the absence of Notch signaling promotes a myeloid identity. Here we characterized an early T-cell cell line, Scid.adh.2c2, as a good model system for studying the myeloid vs. lymphoid developmental choice dependent on PU.1 and Notch signaling. We then used the Scid.adh.2c2 system to identify mechanisms mediating PU.1 and Notch signaling interactions during early T-cell development. We show that the mechanism by which Notch signaling is protecting pro-T cells is neither degradation nor modification of the PU.1 protein. Instead we give evidence that Notch signaling is blocking the PU.1-driven inhibition of a key set of T-regulatory genes including Myb, Tcf7, and Gata3. We show that the protection of Gata3 from PU.1-mediated inhibition, by Notch signaling and Myb, is important for retaining a T-lineage identity. We also discuss a PU.1-driven mechanism involving E-protein inhibition that leads to the inhibition of Notch target genes. This is mechanism may be used as a lockdown mechanism in pro-T-cells that have made the decision to divert to the myeloid pathway.

Panel discussion: U.S. EPA using modeling and ecosystem services to enhance coastal decision making

This panel will discuss the research being conducted, and the models being used in three current coastal EPA studies being conducted on ecosystem services in Tampa Bay, the Chesapeake Bay and the Coastal Carolinas. These studies are intended to provide a broader and more comprehensive approach to policy and decision-making affecting coastal ecosystems as well as provide an account of valued services that have heretofore been largely unrecognized. Interim research products, including updated and integrated spatial data, models and model frameworks, and interactive decision support systems will be demonstrated to engage potential users and to elicit feedback. It is anticipated that the near-term impact of the projects will be to increase the awareness by coastal communities and coastal managers of the implications of their actions and to foster partnerships for ecosystem services research and applications. (PDF contains 4 pages)

To pave or not to pave: A social landscape analysis of land use decision-making in the towns of the lamprey watershed

Population pressure in coastal New Hampshire challenges land use decision-making and threatens the ecological health and functioning of Great Bay, an estuary designated as both a NOAA National Estuarine Research Reserve and an EPA National Estuary Program site. Regional population in the seacoast has quadrupled in four decades resulting in sprawl, increased impervious surface cover and larger lot rural development (Zankel, et.al., 2006). All of Great Bay’s contributing watersheds face these challenges, resulting in calls for strategies addressing growth, development and land use planning. The communities within the Lamprey River watershed comprise this case study. Do these towns communicate upstream and downstream when making land use decisions? Are cumulative effects considered while debating development? Do town land use groups consider the Bay or the coasts in their decision-making? This presentation, a follow-up from the TCS 2008 conference and a completed dissertation, will discuss a novel social science approach to analyze and understand the social landscape of land use decision-making in the towns of the Lamprey River watershed. The methods include semi-structured interviews with GIS based maps in a grounded theory analytical strategy. The discussion will include key findings, opportunities and challenges in moving towards a watershed approach for land use planning. This presentation reviews the results of the case study and developed methodology, which can be used in watersheds elsewhere to map out the potential for moving towns towards EBM and watershed-scaled, land use planning. (PDF contains 4 pages)

Using climate extension to assist coastal decision-makers with climate adaptation

Coastal managers need accessible, trusted, tailored resources to help them interpret climate information, identify vulnerabilities, and apply climate information to decisions about adaptation on regional and local levels. For decades, climate scientists have studied the impacts that short term natural climate variability and long term climate change will have on coastal systems. For example, recent estimates based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warming scenarios suggest that global sea levels may rise 0.5 to 1.4 meters above 1990 levels by 2100 (Rahmstorf 2007; Grinsted, Moore, and Jevrejeva 2009). Many low-lying coastal ecosystems and communities will experience more frequent salt water intrusion events, more frequent coastal flooding, and accelerated erosion rates before they experience significant inundation. These changes will affect the ways coastal managers make decisions, such as timing surface and groundwater withdrawals, replacing infrastructure, and planning for changing land use on local and regional levels. Despite the advantages, managers’ use of scientific information about climate variability and change remains limited in environmental decision-making (Dow and Carbone 2007). Traditional methods scientists use to disseminate climate information, like peer-reviewed journal articles and presentations at conferences, are inappropriate to fill decision-makers’ needs for applying accessible, relevant climate information to decision-making. General guides that help managers scope out vulnerabilities and risks are becoming more common; for example, Snover et al. (2007) outlines a basic process for local and state governments to assess climate change vulnerability and preparedness. However, there are few tools available to support more specific decision-making needs. A recent survey of coastal managers in California suggests that boundary institutions can help to fill the gaps between climate science and coastal decision-making community (Tribbia and Moser 2008). The National Sea Grant College Program, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) university-based program for supporting research and outreach on coastal resource use and conservation, is one such institution working to bridge these gaps through outreach. Over 80% of Sea Grant’s 32 programs are addressing climate issues, and over 60% of programs increased their climate outreach programming between 2006 and 2008 (National Sea Grant Office 2008). One way that Sea Grant is working to assist coastal decision-makers with using climate information is by developing effective methods for coastal climate extension. The purpose of this paper is to discuss climate extension methodologies on regional scales, using the Carolinas Coastal Climate Outreach Initiative (CCCOI) as an example of Sea Grant’s growing capacities for climate outreach and extension. (PDF contains 3 pages)