Survival Analysis with Large Dimensional Covariates: An Application in Microarray Studies

Use of microarray technology often leads to high-dimensional and low- sample size data settings. Over the past several years, a variety of novel approaches have been proposed for variable selection in this context. However, only a small number of these have been adapted for time-to-event data where censoring is present. Among standard variable selection methods shown both to have good predictive accuracy and to be computationally efficient is the elastic net penalization approach. In this paper, adaptation of the elastic net approach is presented for variable selection both under the Cox proportional hazards model and under an accelerated failure time (AFT) model. Assessment of the two methods is conducted through simulation studies and through analysis of microarray data obtained from a set of patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma where time to survival is of interest. The approaches are shown to match or exceed the predictive performance of a Cox-based and an AFT-based variable selection method. The methods are moreover shown to be much more computationally efficient than their respective Cox- and AFT- based counterparts.

Effectively Selecting a Target Population for a Future Comparative Study

When comparing a new treatment with a control in a randomized clinical study, the treatment effect is generally assessed by evaluating a summary measure over a specific study population. The success of the trial heavily depends on the choice of such a population. In this paper, we show a systematic, effective way to identify a promising population, for which the new treatment is expected to have a desired benefit, using the data from a current study involving similar comparator treatments. Specifically, with the existing data we first create a parametric scoring system using multiple covariates to estimate subject-specific treatment differences. Using this system, we specify a desired level of treatment difference and create a subgroup of patients, defined as those whose estimated scores exceed this threshold. An empirically calibrated group-specific treatment difference curve across a range of threshold values is constructed. The population of patients with any desired level of treatment benefit can then be identified accordingly. To avoid any ``self-serving'' bias, we utilize a cross-training-evaluation method for implementing the above two-step procedure. Lastly, we show how to select the best scoring system among all competing models. The proposals are illustrated with the data from two clinical trials in treating AIDS and cardiovascular diseases. Note that if we are not interested in designing a new study for comparing similar treatments, the new procedure can also be quite useful for the management of future patients who would receive nontrivial benefits to compensate for the risk or cost of the new treatment.

Climate and human impact during the past 2000 years as recorded in the Lagunas de Yala, Jujuy, northwestern Argentina

210Pb, 137Cs and 14C dated sediments of two late Holocene landslide lakes in the Provincial Park Lagunas de Yala (Laguna Rodeo, Laguna Comedero, 24°06′S, 65°30′W, 2100 m asl, northwestern Argentina) reveal a high-resolution multi-proxy data set of climate change and human impact for the past ca. 2000 years. Comparison of the lake sediment data set for the 20th century (sediment mass accumulation rates MARs, pollen spectra, nutrient and charcoal fluxes) with independent dendroecological data from the catchment (fire scars, tree growth) and long regional precipitation series (from 1934 onwards) show that (1) the lake sediment data set is internally highly consistent and compares well with independent data sets, (2) the chronology of the sediment is reliable, (3) large fires (1940s, 1983/1984–1989) as documented in the local fire scar frequency are recorded in the charcoal flux to the lake sediments and coincide with low wet-season precipitation rates (e.g., 1940s, 1983/1984) and/or high interannual precipitation variability (late 1940s), and (4) the regional increase in precipitation after 1970 is recorded in an increase in the MARs (L. Rodeo from 100 to 390 mg cm−2 yr−1) and in an increase in fern spores reflecting wet vegetation. The most significant change in MARs and nutrient fluxes (Corg and P) of the past 2000 years is observed with the transition from the Inca Empire to the Spanish Conquest around 1600 AD. Compared with the pre-17th century conditions, MARs increased by a factor of ca. 5 to >8 (to 800 +130, −280 mg cm−2 yr−1), PO4 fluxes increased by a factor of 7, and Corg fluxes by a factor of 10.5 for the time between 1640 and 1930 AD. 17th to 19th century MARs and nutrient fluxes also exceed 20th century values. Excess Pb deposition as indicated by a significant increase in Pb/Zr and Pb/Rb ratios in the sediments after the 1950s coincides with a rapid expansion of the regional mining industry. Excess Pb is interpreted as atmospheric deposition and direct human impact due to Pb smelting.

Diagnostic criteria for hematopoietic stem cell transplant-associated microangiopathy: results of a consensus process by an International Working Group

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: There are no widely accepted criteria for the definition of hematopoietic stem cell transplant -associated microangiopathy (TAM). An International Working Group was formed to develop a consensus formulation of criteria for diagnosing clinically significant TAM. DESIGN AND METHODS: The participants proposed a list of candidate criteria, selected those considered necessary, and ranked those considered optional to identify a core set of criteria. Three obligatory criteria and four optional criteria that ranked highest formed a core set. In an appropriateness panel process, the participants scored the diagnosis of 16 patient profiles as appropriate or not appropriate for TAM. Using the experts' ratings on the patient profiles as a gold standard, the sensitivity and specificity of 24 candidate definitions of the disorder developed from the core set of criteria were evaluated. A nominal group technique was used to facilitate consensus formation. The definition of TAM with the highest score formed the final PROPOSAL. RESULTS: The Working Group proposes that the diagnosis of TAM requires fulfilment of all of the following criteria: (i) >4% schistocytes in blood; (ii) de novo, prolonged or progressive thrombocytopenia (platelet count <50 x 109/L or 50% or greater reduction from previous counts); (iii) sudden and persistent increase in lactate dehydrogenase concentration; (iv) decrease in hemoglobin concentration or increased transfusion requirement; and (v) decrease in serum haptoglobin. The sensitivity and specificity of this definition exceed 80%. INTERPRETATION AND CONCLUSIONS: The Working Group recommends that the presented criteria of TAM be adopted in clinical use, especially in scientific trials.

Patent foramen ovale closure: a new therapy for migraine

Migraine is a recurrent disabling disorder predominantly affecting middle-aged women. Migraine occurs with or without aura symptoms. Several studies have shown an increased prevalence of right-to-left shunts (RLSs) in migraine with aura. The overwhelming majority of these shunts were due to a patent foramen ovale (PFO). Furthermore, migraine with aura is more prevalent in clinical entities associated with a RLS, e.g. cryptogenic stroke, decompression illness in divers, or in patients with hereditary hemorrhagic teleangiectasia and pulmonary arteriovenous fistulas. Retrospective studies have consistently shown that shunt closure was associated with a significant reduction in migraine frequency. Its beneficial effect seemed to exceed the efficacy of conventional migraine therapy. Several randomized clinical trials to prospectively assess the benefit of shunt closure in migraine patients have been initiated. The only one completed, the MIST trial (Migraine Intervention with STARFLEX Technology), showed a significant reduction of migraine with aura after device implantation, compared with controls. However, the benefit of PFO closure was more modest than expected. This review recapitulates the current data regarding PFO closure and migraine with aura and summarizes in brief the current knowledge regarding migraine pathophysiology and the link to a RLS.

Apparent survival of the salamander

Background Understanding the demographic processes underlying population dynamics is a central theme in ecology. Populations decline if losses from the population (i.e., mortality and emigration) exceed gains (i.e., recruitment and immigration). Amphibians are thought to exhibit little movement even though local populations often fluctuate dramatically and are likely to go exinct if there is no rescue effect through immigration from nearby populations. Terrestrial salamanders are generally portrayed as amphibians with low migratory activity. Our study uses demographic analysis as a key to unravel whether emigration or mortality is the main cause of "losses" from the population. In particular, we use the analysis to challenge the common belief that terrestrial salamanders show low migratory activity. Results The mark-recapture analysis of adult salamanders showed that monthly survival was high (> 90%) without a seasonal pattern. These estimates, however, translate into rather low rates of local annual survival of only ~40% and suggest that emigration was important. The estimated probability of emigration was 49%. Conclusion Our analysis shows that terrestrial salamanders exhibit more migratory activity than commonly thought. This may be due either because the spatial extent of salamander populations is underestimated or because there is a substantial exchange of individuals between populations. Our current results are in line with several other studies that suggest high migratory activity in amphibians. In particular, many amphibian populations may be characterized by high proportions of transients and/or floaters.

High variability and non-neutral evolution of the mammalian avpr1a gene

BACKGROUND: The arginine-vasopressin 1a receptor has been identified as a key determinant for social behaviour in Microtus voles, humans and other mammals. Nevertheless, the genetic bases of complex phenotypic traits like differences in social and mating behaviour among species and individuals remain largely unknown. Contrary to previous studies focusing on differences in the promotor region of the gene, we investigate here the level of functional variation in the coding region (exon 1) of this locus. RESULTS: We detected high sequence diversity between higher mammalian taxa as well as between species of the genus Microtus. This includes length variation and radical amino acid changes, as well as the presence of distinct protein variants within individuals. Additionally, negative selection prevails on most parts of the first exon of the arginine-vasopressin receptor 1a (avpr1a) gene but it contains regions with higher rates of change that harbour positively selected sites. Synonymous and non-synonymous substitution rates in the avpr1a gene are not exceptional compared to other genes, but they exceed those found in related hormone receptors with similar functions. DISCUSSION: These results stress the importance of considering variation in the coding sequence of avpr1a in regards to associations with life history traits (e.g. social behaviour, mating system, habitat requirements) of voles, other mammals and humans in particular.

Pharmacodynamics of antibiotics in the therapy of meningitis: infection model observations

Detailed studies of pharmacodynamic principles relevant to the therapy of bacterial meningitis are difficult to perform in man, while the rabbit model of bacterial meningitis has proved to be extremely valuable and has led to insights that appear relevant for the treatment of humans. Most importantly in the light of the restricted penetration of antibiotics into the CSF, animal studies have shown that in meningitis there is a dose-response curve between the CSF concentrations achieved by antibiotics and their bactericidal activity. This appears to be true for all classes of antibiotics thus far examined, including the beta-lactams, which do not show such a dose-response behaviour in other infections. Only CSF concentrations that exceed the MBC of the infecting organism by at least 10-30-fold achieve consistent and rapid bactericidal activity. Such rapid bactericidal activity is a requirement for successful therapy with beta-lactams and can be impaired with certain antibiotics by the specific conditions in infected CSF (protein content; acidic pH; slow-growing bacteria). However, rapid antibiotic killing of the infecting organisms may not be without adverse effects either. Some antibiotics, particularly beta-lactams lead to the brisk liberation of bacterial cell wall components (e.g. endotoxin, in the case of Gram-negative organisms) which have an inflammatory effect on the host and can lead to a temporary deterioration of the disease. Dexamethasone, when administered with the antibiotic, can prevent some of the adverse effects of rapid bacterial lysis.

The influence of dosing schedules and cerebrospinal fluid bactericidal activity on the therapy of bacterial meningitis

Bacterial meningitis represents an infection in an area of impaired host defence. Optimal therapy of meningitis requires attaining bactericidal activity within cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). Studies in experimental animal models of meningitis suggest that maximal rates of bacterial killing in vivo and optimal cure rates are achieved when CSF antibiotic concentrations exceed the MBC of the test strain by greater than or equal to ten-fold. The results of clinical trials support this conclusion. In addition, a variable post-antibiotic effect occurs in-vivo after short periods of exposure to antimicrobial activity, thus maintaining therapeutic efficacy with intermittent dosage regimens. These basic principles of therapy are outlined in this review and serve as a basis for rational treatment regimens. For most antibiotics, the optimal dose, dosage interval, and duration of therapy for bacterial meningitis remain to be established.

On how high performers keep cool brains in situations of cognitive overload

What happens in the brain when we reach or exceed our capacity limits? Are there individual differences for performance at capacity limits? We used functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) to investigate the impact of increases in processing demand on selected cortical areas when participants performed a parametrically varied and challenging dual task. Low-performing participants respond with large and load-dependent activation increases in many cortical areas when exposed to excessive task requirements, accompanied by decreasing performance. It seems that these participants recruit additional attentional and strategy-related resources with increasing difficulty, which are either not relevant or even detrimental to performance. In contrast, the brains of the high-performing participants "keep cool" in terms of activation changes, despite continuous correct performance, reflecting different and more efficient processing. These findings shed light on the differential implications of performance on activation patterns and underline the importance of the interindividual-differences approach in neuroimaging research.

Managing server energy and reducing operational cost for online service providers

The past decade has seen the energy consumption in servers and Internet Data Centers (IDCs) skyrocket. A recent survey estimated that the worldwide spending on servers and cooling have risen to above $30 billion and is likely to exceed spending on the new server hardware . The rapid rise in energy consumption has posted a serious threat to both energy resources and the environment, which makes green computing not only worthwhile but also necessary. This dissertation intends to tackle the challenges of both reducing the energy consumption of server systems and by reducing the cost for Online Service Providers (OSPs). Two distinct subsystems account for most of IDC’s power: the server system, which accounts for 56% of the total power consumption of an IDC, and the cooling and humidifcation systems, which accounts for about 30% of the total power consumption. The server system dominates the energy consumption of an IDC, and its power draw can vary drastically with data center utilization. In this dissertation, we propose three models to achieve energy effciency in web server clusters: an energy proportional model, an optimal server allocation and frequency adjustment strategy, and a constrained Markov model. The proposed models have combined Dynamic Voltage/Frequency Scaling (DV/FS) and Vary-On, Vary-off (VOVF) mechanisms that work together for more energy savings. Meanwhile, corresponding strategies are proposed to deal with the transition overheads. We further extend server energy management to the IDC’s costs management, helping the OSPs to conserve, manage their own electricity cost, and lower the carbon emissions. We have developed an optimal energy-aware load dispatching strategy that periodically maps more requests to the locations with lower electricity prices. A carbon emission limit is placed, and the volatility of the carbon offset market is also considered. Two energy effcient strategies are applied to the server system and the cooling system respectively. With the rapid development of cloud services, we also carry out research to reduce the server energy in cloud computing environments. In this work, we propose a new live virtual machine (VM) placement scheme that can effectively map VMs to Physical Machines (PMs) with substantial energy savings in a heterogeneous server cluster. A VM/PM mapping probability matrix is constructed, in which each VM request is assigned with a probability running on PMs. The VM/PM mapping probability matrix takes into account resource limitations, VM operation overheads, server reliability as well as energy effciency. The evolution of Internet Data Centers and the increasing demands of web services raise great challenges to improve the energy effciency of IDCs. We also express several potential areas for future research in each chapter.

Automated optimization of polymer extrusion dies using finite element analysis

An extrusion die is used to continuously produce parts with a constant cross section; such as sheets, pipes, tire components and more complex shapes such as window seals. The die is fed by a screw extruder when polymers are used. The extruder melts, mixes and pressures the material by the rotation of either a single or double screw. The polymer can then be continuously forced through the die producing a long part in the shape of the die outlet. The extruded section is then cut to the desired length. Generally, the primary target of a well designed die is to produce a uniform outlet velocity without excessively raising the pressure required to extrude the polymer through the die. Other properties such as temperature uniformity and residence time are also important but are not directly considered in this work. Designing dies for optimal outlet velocity variation using simple analytical equations are feasible for basic die geometries or simple channels. Due to the complexity of die geometry and of polymer material properties design of complex dies by analytical methods is difficult. For complex dies iterative methods must be used to optimize dies. An automated iterative method is desired for die optimization. To automate the design and optimization of an extrusion die two issues must be dealt with. The first is how to generate a new mesh for each iteration. In this work, this is approached by modifying a Parasolid file that describes a CAD part. This file is then used in a commercial meshing software. Skewing the initial mesh to produce a new geometry was also employed as a second option. The second issue is an optimization problem with the presence of noise stemming from variations in the mesh and cumulative truncation errors. In this work a simplex method and a modified trust region method were employed for automated optimization of die geometries. For the trust region a discreet derivative and a BFGS Hessian approximation were used. To deal with the noise in the function the trust region method was modified to automatically adjust the discreet derivative step size and the trust region based on changes in noise and function contour. Generally uniformity of velocity at exit of the extrusion die can be improved by increasing resistance across the die but this is limited by the pressure capabilities of the extruder. In optimization, a penalty factor that increases exponentially from the pressure limit is applied. This penalty can be applied in two different ways; the first only to the designs which exceed the pressure limit, the second to both designs above and below the pressure limit. Both of these methods were tested and compared in this work.

RF-sputter fabrication of magnetic garnet thin films and simulation modeling for 1-D magnetic photonic crystal waveguide devices

One dimensional magnetic photonic crystals (1D-MPC) are promising structures for integrated optical isolator applications. Rare earth substituted garnet thin films with proper Faraday rotation are required to fabricate planar 1D-MPCs. In this thesis, flat-top response 1D-MPC was proposed and spectral responses and Faraday rotation were modeled. Bismuth substituted iron garnet films were fabricated by RF magnetron sputtering and structures, compositions, birefringence and magnetooptical properties were studied. Double layer structures for single mode propagation were also fabricated by sputtering for the first time. Multilayer stacks with multiple defects (phase shift) composed of Ce-YIG and GGG quarter-wave plates were simulated by the transfer matrix method. The transmission and Faraday rotation characteristics were theoretically studied. It is found that flat-top response, with 100% transmission and near 45o rotation is achievable by adjusting the inter-defect spacing, for film structures as thin as 30 to 35 μm. This is better than 3-fold reduction in length compared to the best Ce-YIG films for comparable rotations, thus allows a considerable reduction in size in manufactured optical isolators. Transmission bands as wide as 7nm were predicted, which is considerable improvement over 2 defects structure. Effect of repetition number and ratio factor on transmission and Faraday rotation ripple factors for the case of 3 and 4 defects structure has been discussed. Diffraction across the structure corresponds to a longer optical path length. Thus the use of guided optics is required to minimize the insertion losses in integrated devices. This part is discussed in chapter 2 in this thesis. Bismuth substituted iron garnet thin films were prepared by RF magnetron sputtering. We investigated or measured the deposition parameters optimization, crystallinity, surface morphologies, composition, magnetic and magnetooptical properties. A very high crystalline quality garnet film with smooth surface has been heteroepitaxially grown on (111) GGG substrate for films less than 1μm. Dual layer structures with two distinct XRD peaks (within a single sputtered film) start to develop when films exceed this thickness. The development of dual layer structure was explained by compositional gradient across film thickness, rather than strain gradient proposed by other authors. Lower DC self bias or higher substrate temperature is found to help to delay the appearance of the 2nd layer. The deposited films show in-plane magnetization, which is advantageous for waveguide devices application. Propagation losses of fabricated waveguides can be decreased by annealing in an oxygen atmosphere from 25dB/cm to 10dB/cm. The Faraday rotation at λ=1.55μm were also measured for the waveguides. FR is small (10° for a 3mm long waveguide), due to the presence of linear birefringence. This part is covered in chapter 4. We also investigated the elimination of linear birefringence by thickness tuning method for our sputtered films. We examined the compressively and tensilely strained films and analyze the photoelastic response of the sputter deposited garnet films. It has been found that the net birefringence can be eliminated under planar compressive strain conditions by sputtering. Bi-layer GGG on garnet thin film yields a reduced birefringence. Temperature control during the sputter deposition of GGG cover layer is critical and strongly influences the magnetization and birefringence level in the waveguide. High temperature deposition lowers the magnetization and increases the linear birefringence in the garnet films. Double layer single mode structures fabricated by sputtering were also studied. The double layer, which shows an in-plane magnetization, has an increased RMS roughness upon upper layer deposition. The single mode characteristic was confirmed by prism coupler measurement. This part is discussed in chapter 5.

Non-intrusive pressure measurement in microchannels

A non-intrusive interferometric measurement technique has been successfully developed to measure fluid compressibility in both gas and liquid phases via refractive index (RI) changes. The technique, consisting of an unfocused laser beam impinging a glass channel, can be used to separate and quantify cell deflection, fluid flow rates, and pressure variations in microchannels. Currently in fields such as microfluidics, pressure and flow rate measurement devices are orders of magnitude larger than the channel cross-sections making direct pressure and fluid flow rate measurements impossible. Due to the non-intrusive nature of this technique, such measurements are now possible, opening the door for a myriad of new scientific research and experimentation. This technique, adapted from the concept of Micro Interferometric Backscatter Detection (MIBD), boasts the ability to provide comparable sensitivities in a variety of channel types and provides quantification capability not previously demonstrated in backscatter detection techniques. Measurement sensitivity depends heavily on experimental parameters such as beam impingement angle, fluid volume, photodetector sensitivity, and a channel’s dimensional tolerances. The current apparatus readily quantifies fluid RI changes of 10-5 refractive index units (RIU) corresponding to pressures of approximately 14 psi and 1 psi in water and air, respectively. MIBD reports detection capability as low as 10-9 RIU and the newly adapted technique has the potential to meet and exceed this limit providing quantification in the place of detection. Specific device sensitivities are discussed and suggestions are provided on how the technique may be refined to provide optimal quantification capabilities based on experimental conditions.

Chronic stimulation of the globus pallidus internus for treatment of non-dYT1 generalized dystonia and choreoathetosis: 2-year follow up

OBJECT: The authors studied the long-term efficacy of deep brain stimulation (DBS) of the posteroventral lateral globus pallidus internus up to 2 years postoperatively in patients with primary non-DYT1 generalized dystonia or choreoathetosis. The results are briefly compared with those reported for DBS in DYT1 dystonia (Oppenheim dystonia), which is caused by the DYT1 gene. METHODS: Enrollment in this prospective expanded pilot study was limited to adult patients with severely disabling, medically refractory non-DYT1 generalized dystonia or choreoathetosis. Six consecutive patients underwent follow-up examinations at defined intervals of 3 months, 1 year, and 2 years postsurgery. There were five women and one man, and their mean age at surgery was 45.5 years. Formal assessments included both the Burke-Fahn-Marsden dystonia scale and the recently developed Unified Dystonia Rating Scale. Two patients had primary generalized non-DYT1 dystonia, and four suffered from choreoathetosis secondary to infantile cerebral palsy. Bilateral quadripolar DBS electrodes were implanted in all instances, except in one patient with markedly asymmetrical symptoms. There were no adverse events related to surgery. The Burke-Fahn-Marsden scores in the two patients with generalized dystonia improved by 78 and 71% at 3 months, by 82 and 69% at 1 year, and by 78 and 70% at 2 years postoperatively. This was paralleled by marked amelioration of disability scores. The mean improvement in Burke-Fahn-Marsden scores in patients with choreoathetosis was 12% at 3 months, 29% at 1 year, and 23% at 2 years postoperatively, which was not significant. Two of these patients thought that they had achieved marked improvement at 2 years postoperatively, although results of objective evaluations were less impressive. In these two patients there was a minor but stable improvement in disability scores. All patients had an improvement in pain scores at the 2-year follow-up review. Medication was tapered off in both patients with generalized dystonia and reduced in two of the patients with choreoathetosis. All stimulation-induced side effects were reversible on adjustment of the DBS settings. Energy consumption of the batteries was considerably higher than in patients with Parkinson disease. CONCLUSIONS: Chronic pallidal DBS is a safe and effective procedure in generalized non-DYT1 dystonia, and it may become the procedure of choice in patients with medically refractory dystonia. Postoperative improvement of choreoathetosis is more modest and varied, and subjective ratings of outcome may exceed objective evaluations.