Seeing things: perception, experience and the constraints of excavation

Recent attempts to problematize archaeological fieldwork concerned with excavation at the expense of surface survey, and with questions of procedure more than interpretations of the past. In fact these two kinds of fieldwork offer quite different possibilities and suffer from different constraints. Thought must be given to ways in which they can be combined if they are to make a real contribution to social archaeology. The argument is illustrated by a project carried out at a megalithic cemetery in Scotland.

Observational constraints on past attributable warming and predictions of future global warming

This paper investigates the impact of aerosol forcing uncertainty on the robustness of estimates of the twentieth-century warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Attribution analyses on three coupled climate models with very different sensitivities and aerosol forcing are carried out. The Third Hadley Centre Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere GCM (HadCM3), Parallel Climate Model (PCM), and GFDL R30 models all provide good simulations of twentieth-century global mean temperature changes when they include both anthropogenic and natural forcings. Such good agreement could result from a fortuitous cancellation of errors, for example, by balancing too much ( or too little) greenhouse warming by too much ( or too little) aerosol cooling. Despite a very large uncertainty for estimates of the possible range of sulfate aerosol forcing obtained from measurement campaigns, results show that the spatial and temporal nature of observed twentieth-century temperature change constrains the component of past warming attributable to anthropogenic greenhouse gases to be significantly greater ( at the 5% level) than the observed warming over the twentieth century. The cooling effects of aerosols are detected in all three models. Both spatial and temporal aspects of observed temperature change are responsible for constraining the relative roles of greenhouse warming and sulfate cooling over the twentieth century. This is because there are distinctive temporal structures in differential warming rates between the hemispheres, between land and ocean, and between mid- and low latitudes. As a result, consistent estimates of warming attributable to greenhouse gas emissions are obtained from all three models, and predictions are relatively robust to the use of more or less sensitive models. The transient climate response following a 1% yr(-1) increase in CO2 is estimated to lie between 2.2 and 4 K century(-1) (5-95 percentiles).

Evolutionary bi-stability in pathogen transmission mode

Many pathogens transmit to new hosts by both infection (horizontal transmission) and transfer to the infected host's offspring (vertical transmission). These two transmission modes require speci®c adap- tations of the pathogen that can be mutually exclusive, resulting in a trade-off between horizontal and vertical transmission. We show that in mathematical models such trade-offs can lead to the simultaneous existence of two evolutionary stable states (evolutionary bi-stability) of allocation of resources to the two modes of transmission. We also show that jumping between evolutionary stable states can be induced by gradual environmental changes. Using quantitative PCR-based estimates of abundance in seed and vege- tative parts, we show that the pathogen of wheat, Phaeosphaeria nodorum, has jumped between two distinct states of transmission mode twice in the past 160 years, which, based on published evidence, we interpret as adaptation to environmental change. The ®nding of evolutionary bi-stability has impli- cations for human, animal and other plant diseases. An ill-judged change in a disease control programme could cause the pathogen to evolve a new, and possibly more damaging, combination of transmission modes. Similarly, environmental changes can shift the balance between transmission modes, with adverse effects on human, animal and plant health.

Speciation in fig wasps

There are over 700 species of fig trees in the tropics and several thousand species of fig wasps are associated with their syconia (inflorescences). These wasps comprise a monophyletic family of fig pollinators and several diverse lineages of non-pollinating wasps. The pollinator larvae gall fig flowers, while larvae of non-pollinating species either initiate their own galls or parasitise the galls of other wasps. A single fig species has 1-4 pollinator species and also hosts up to 30 non-pollinating wasp species. Most wasps show a high degree of host plant specificity and are known from only a single fig species. However, in some cases wasps may be shared across closely related fig species. There is impressive morphological coevolution between figs and fig wasps and this, combined with a high degree of partner specificity, led to the expectation that figs and pollinators have cospeciated extensively. Comparison of deep phylogenies supports long-term codivergence of figs and pollinators, but also suggests that some host shifts have occurred. Phylogenies of more closely related species do not match perfectly and may even be incongruent, suggesting significant roles for processes other than strict cospeciation. Combined with recent evidence on host specificity patterns, this suggests that pollinator wasps may often speciate by host shifts between closely related figs, or by duplication (the wasp speciates but the fig doesn't). The frequencies and biological details of these different modes of speciation invite further study. Far less is known about speciation in non-pollinating fig wasps. Some lineages have probably coevolved with figs and pollinators for most of the evolutionary history of the symbiosis, while others appear to be more recent colonisers. Many species appear to be highly host plant specific, but those that lay eggs through the fig wall without entering the syconium (the majority of species) may be subject to fewer constraints on host-shifting than pollinators. There is evidence for substantial host shifting in at least one gens, but also evidence for ecological speciation on the same host plant by niche shifts in other cases. Finally, recent work has begun to address the issue of “community phylogeny” and provided evidence for long-term co-divergence of multiple pollinating and non-pollinating wasp lineages with their host figs.

Livelihood adaptation to risk: Constraints and opportunities for pastoral development in Ethiopia's afar region

Development policies in the pastoral areas of Africa assume that pastoralists are poor. Using the Afar pastoralists of Ethiopia as the focus of research this article challenges this depiction of pastoralism by exploring pastoral livelihood goals and traditional strategies for managing risk. Investment in social institutions to minimise the risk of outright destitution, sometimes at the cost of increased poverty, and significant manipulation of local markets enable the Afar to exploit a highly uncertain and marginal environment. Improved development assistance and enhanced targeting of the truly vulnerable within pastoral societies demands an acceptance that pastoral poverty is neither uniform nor universal.

Measuring and comparing constraints to improved biosecurity amongst GB farmers, veterinarians and the auxiliary industries

Constraints to the introduction of enhanced biosecurity systems are rarely considered in sufficient detail when population medicine specialists initiate new control schemes. The main objective of our research was to investigate and compare the different attitudes constraining improvement in biosecurity for cattle and sheep farmers, practising veterinary surgeons and the auxiliary industries in Great Britain (GB). This study was carried out utilizing farmer focus groups, a questionnaire survey of veterinary practitioners and a telephone survey of auxiliary industry representatives. It appears that farmers and veterinarians have their own relatively clear definitions for biosecurity in relation to some major diseases threatening GB agriculture. Overall, farmers believe that other stakeholders, such as the government, should make a greater contribution towards biosecurity within GB. Conversely, veterinary practitioners saw their clients' ability or willingness to invest in biosecurity measures as a major constraint. Veterinary practitioners also felt that there was need for additional proof of efficacy and/or the potential economic benefits of proposed farm biosecurity practices better demonstrated. Auxiliary industries, in general, were not certain of their role in biosecurity although study participants highlighted zoonoses as part of the issue and offered that most of the constraints operated at farm level. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Measuring and comparing constraints to improved biosecurity amongst GB farmers, veterinarians and the auxiliary industries

Constraints to the introduction of enhanced biosecurity systems are rarely considered in sufficient detail when population medicine specialists initiate new control schemes. The main objective of our research was to investigate and compare the different attitudes constraining improvement in biosecurity for cattle and sheep farmers, practising veterinary surgeons and the auxiliary industries in Great Britain (GB). This study was carried out utilizing farmer focus groups, a questionnaire survey of veterinary practitioners and a telephone survey of auxiliary industry representatives. It appears that farmers and veterinarians have their own relatively clear definitions for biosecurity in relation to some major diseases threatening GB agriculture. Overall, farmers believe that other stakeholders, such as the government, should make a greater contribution towards biosecurity within GB. Conversely, veterinary practitioners saw their clients' ability or willingness to invest in biosecurity measures as a major constraint. Veterinary practitioners also felt that there was need for additional proof of efficacy and/or the potential economic benefits of proposed farm biosecurity practices better demonstrated. Auxiliary industries, in general, were not certain of their role in biosecurity although study participants highlighted zoonoses as part of the issue and offered that most of the constraints operated at farm level. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Managing threatened species – the ecological toolbox, evolutionary theory and the declining-population paradigm

1. The management of threatened species is an important practical way in which conservationists can intervene in the extinction process and reduce the loss of biodiversity. Understanding the causes of population declines (past, present and future) is pivotal to designing effective practical management. This is the declining-population paradigm identified by Caughley. 2. There are three broad classes of ecological tool used by conservationists to guide management decisions for threatened species: statistical models of habitat use, demographic models and behaviour-based models. Each of these is described here, illustrated with a case study and evaluated critically in terms of its practical application. 3. These tools are fundamentally different. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models both use descriptions of patterns in abundance and demography, in relation to a range of factors, to inform management decisions. In contrast, behaviourbased models describe the evolutionary processes underlying these patterns, and derive such patterns from the strategies employed by individuals when competing for resources under a specific set of environmental conditions. 4. Statistical models of habitat use and demographic models have been used successfully to make management recommendations for declining populations. To do this, assumptions are made about population growth or vital rates that will apply when environmental conditions are restored, based on either past data collected under favourable environmental conditions or estimates of these parameters when the agent of decline is removed. As a result, they can only be used to make reliable quantitative predictions about future environments when a comparable environment has been experienced by the population of interest in the past. 5. Many future changes in the environment driven by management will not have been experienced by a population in the past. Under these circumstances, vital rates and their relationship with population density will change in the future in a way that is not predictable from past patterns. Reliable quantitative predictions about population-level responses then need to be based on an explicit consideration of the evolutionary processes operating at the individual level. 6. Synthesis and applications. It is argued that evolutionary theory underpins Caughley’s declining-population paradigm, and that it needs to become much more widely used within mainstream conservation biology. This will help conservationists examine critically the reliability of the tools they have traditionally used to aid management decision-making. It will also give them access to alternative tools, particularly when predictions are required for changes in the environment that have not been experienced by a population in the past.

Evolutionary relationships of "candidatus riesia spp.," endosymbiotic enterobacteriaceae living within hematophagous primate lice

The primary endosymbiotic bacteria from three species of parasitic primate lice were characterized molecularly. We have confirmed the characterization of the primary endosymbiont (P-endosymbiont) of the human head/body louse Pediculus humanus and provide new characterizations of the P-endosymbionts from Pediculus schaeffi from chimpanzees and Pthirus pubis, the pubic louse of humans. The endosymbionts show an average percent sequence divergence of 11 to 15% from the most closely related known bacterium "Candidatus Arsenophonus insecticola." We propose that two additional species be added to the genus "Candidatus Riesia." The new species proposed within "Candidatus Riesia" have sequence divergences of 3.4% and 10 to 12% based on uncorrected pairwise differences. Our Bayesian analysis shows that the branching pattern for the primary endosymbionts was the same as that for their louse hosts, suggesting a long coevolutionary history between primate lice and their primary endosymbionts. We used a calibration of 5.6 million years to date the divergence between endosymbionts from human and chimpanzee lice and estimated an evolutionary rate of nucleotide substitution of 0.67% per million years, which is 15 to 30 times faster than previous estimates calculated for Buchnera, the primary endosymbiont in aphids. Given the evidence for cospeciation with primate lice and the evidence for fast evolutionary rates, this lineage of endosymbiotic bacteria can be evaluated as a fast-evolving marker of both louse and primate evolutionary histories.