Hierarchical Bayesian models for estimating the extent of plant pest invasions

Plant biosecurity requires statistical tools to interpret field surveillance data in order to manage pest incursions that threaten crop production and trade. Ultimately, management decisions need to be based on the probability that an area is infested or free of a pest. Current informal approaches to delimiting pest extent rely upon expert ecological interpretation of presence / absence data over space and time. Hierarchical Bayesian models provide a cohesive statistical framework that can formally integrate the available information on both pest ecology and data. The overarching method involves constructing an observation model for the surveillance data, conditional on the hidden extent of the pest and uncertain detection sensitivity. The extent of the pest is then modelled as a dynamic invasion process that includes uncertainty in ecological parameters. Modelling approaches to assimilate this information are explored through case studies on spiralling whitefly, Aleurodicus dispersus and red banded mango caterpillar, Deanolis sublimbalis. Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is used to estimate the probable extent of pests, given the observation and process model conditioned by surveillance data. Statistical methods, based on time-to-event models, are developed to apply hierarchical Bayesian models to early detection programs and to demonstrate area freedom from pests. The value of early detection surveillance programs is demonstrated through an application to interpret surveillance data for exotic plant pests with uncertain spread rates. The model suggests that typical early detection programs provide a moderate reduction in the probability of an area being infested but a dramatic reduction in the expected area of incursions at a given time. Estimates of spiralling whitefly extent are examined at local, district and state-wide scales. The local model estimates the rate of natural spread and the influence of host architecture, host suitability and inspector efficiency. These parameter estimates can support the development of robust surveillance programs. Hierarchical Bayesian models for the human-mediated spread of spiralling whitefly are developed for the colonisation of discrete cells connected by a modified gravity model. By estimating dispersal parameters, the model can be used to predict the extent of the pest over time. An extended model predicts the climate restricted distribution of the pest in Queensland. These novel human-mediated movement models are well suited to demonstrating area freedom at coarse spatio-temporal scales. At finer scales, and in the presence of ecological complexity, exploratory models are developed to investigate the capacity for surveillance information to estimate the extent of red banded mango caterpillar. It is apparent that excessive uncertainty about observation and ecological parameters can impose limits on inference at the scales required for effective management of response programs. The thesis contributes novel statistical approaches to estimating the extent of pests and develops applications to assist decision-making across a range of plant biosecurity surveillance activities. Hierarchical Bayesian modelling is demonstrated as both a useful analytical tool for estimating pest extent and a natural investigative paradigm for developing and focussing biosecurity programs.

Developing research data management services at QUT

QUT Library and the High Performance Computing and Research Support (HPC) Team have been collaborating on developing and delivering a range of research support services, including those designed to assist researchers to manage their data. QUT’s Management of Research Data policy has been available since 2010 and is complemented by the Data Management Guidelines and Checklist. QUT has partnered with the Australian Research Data Service (ANDS) on a number of projects including Seeding the Commons, Metadata Hub (with Griffith University) and the Data Capture program. The HPC Team has also been developing the QUT Research Data Repository based on the Architecta Mediaflux system and have run several pilots with faculties. Library and HPC staff have been trained in the principles of research data management and are providing a range of research data management seminars and workshops for researchers and HDR students.

The use of supply chain management to reduce delays : Malaysian public sector construction projects

Construction delays are a critical problem for Malaysian public sector projects. These delays have been blamed mainly on inefficient traditional construction practices that continue to dominate the current industry. This paper reports the progress to date of a Ph.D. research project aimed at developing a framework to utilize Supply Chain Management (SCM) tools to improve the time performance of Malaysian Government projects. The potential of SCM has been identified for public sector governance and its use in Malaysia is now being considered within the strategy of the Malaysian Construction Industry Master Plan (2006-2015). Encouraged by success in the UK, there is a cautious optimism concerning the successful application of SCM in Malaysia. This paper considers delay as a problem in Malaysian public sector projects, establishes the need to embrace SCM and then elucidates the need and strategies for the development of a delay reduction framework. A literature review, survey mechanism and structured interview schedule will be undertaken to achieve the research objectives. The final research outcome will be a framework that addresses root delay contributors (“pathogens”) and applies SCM tools for their mitigation.

The phenomenon of business process management : practitioners’ emphasis

Since 2005, Business Process Management (BPM) has been one of the top 10 issues for CIO’s. However, while there is a general awareness what BPM is and what it relates to, one needs to ask ‘does everyone have the same understanding of the BPM phenomenon? And if not, is there a pattern to these conceptions and how do the ways of conceptualizing BPM differ?’ This paper presents the practitioner conceptions of BPM using a phenomenographic approach to detect variations in the BPM conceptions emphasised. 26 interviews were conducted with BPM practitioners with various scopes of work (namely program management, project management and execution levels) in this qualitative research. Distinct variations in how BPM is conceptualized among BPM practitioners are revealed, showing that emphasis is put depending on their scope of work either towards value generation, improvement or managing processes. This is of particular relevance to the Information Systems and BPM community in order to align the rigorous work done to date by the research community with the current understanding of BPM in the practitioner community.

Malaysia high-rise residential property management : 2004-2010 trends and scenario

Property management requires an understanding of infrastructure management, service life planning and quality management. Today, people are beginning to realize that effective property management in high-rise residential property can sustain the property value and maintaining high returns on their investment. The continuous growth of high-rise residential properties indicates that there is a need for an effective property management system to provide a sustainable high-rise residential property development. As intensive as these studies are, they do not attempt to investigate the correlation between property management systems with the trends of Malaysia high-rise residential property development. By examining the trends and scenario of Malaysia high-rise residential property development, this paper aims to gain an understanding of impacts from the effectiveness of property management in this scope area. Findings from this scoping paper will assist in providing a greater understanding and possible solutions for the current Malaysian property management systems for the expanding high-rise residential unit market. With current high rise units in excess of 1.3 million and increasing, the need for more cost effective management systems are of highly important to the Malaysian Property Industry.

Exporting educational services : an Australian university’s experience in delivering offshore project management programs

Increasingly, Australian universities are facing the challenges of global education. While overseas students studying in Australia provide the primary source of export earnings for educational institutions, a number of institutions, including QUT, are also involved in international trade in educational services by providing services offshore. This paper discusses driving forces behind moves by Australian universities to enter the international education market. It then briefly describes Queensland University of Technology’s internationalisation strategy. The paper concludes with a case study describing how the School of Construction Management has pioneered the development of offshore courses at QUT. The introduction of the Master of Project Management and Graduate Diploma of Project Management programs in Singapore in November 1993 represented QUT’s first experience in this area. With the experience of 18 months of operation, the School now has the opportunity to reflect on the outcomes of this venture and consider future options.

Project managers and technical change : curriculum development in strategic technology management

Traditional business approaches do not take account of the rapid technological developments underpinning today's world. Further understanding the role of technology and its efficient management to build and maintain a competitive edge in business can allow project managers to more successfully manage organisations, and to adapt to and capitalise on, today’s rapidly changing environment. Strategic Technology Management links engineering, science and management principles to identify, choose, and implement the most effective means of attaining compatibility between internal skills and resources of an organisation and its competitive, economic and social environment. This paper reviews the rationale and the development of a new Strategic Technology Management subject in QUT’s Master of Project Management program. It discusses recent developments in the area of technology management from an international perspective, provides details of the curriculum developed and discusses the experience of completing two years of teaching the new program.

Leg Clubs® : a clinically and cost-effective approach to lower limb management

Leg ulcers affect 55000-90000 people, predominantly aged over 65, in the UK at any one time. Traditional care, delivered in people’s homes by district nurses or in GP clinics, is costly and often not effective, with slow healing rates and a high incidence of recurrence. A social model of leg ulcer clinics developed by the author has been shown to improve healing and reduce recurrence within a highly cost-effective framework that delivers genuine patient empowerment, public health education and social outreach. This paper outlines the rationale for the Leg Club, its clinical and social impact, and the infrastructure behind it. It also considers the challenges to establishing and running a Leg Club.

Procuring Sydney’s Olympic Stadium : a world class event?

This paper describes and analyses the procurement processes employed in delivering the Sydney Olympic Stadium – arguably the most significant stadia project in the region today. This current high profile project is discussed in terms of a case study into the procurement processes used. Interviews, personal site visits and questionnaires were used to obtain information on the procurement processes used and comments on their application to the project. The alternative procurement process used on this project—Design and Construction within a Build, Own, Operate and Transfer (BOOT) project—is likely to impact on the construction industry as a whole. Already other projects and sectors are following this lead. Based on a series of on-site interviews and questionnaires, a series of benefits and drawbacks to this procurement strategy are provided.The Olympic Stadium project has also been further analysed during construction through a Degree of Interaction framework to determine anticipated project success. This analysis investigates project interaction and user satisfaction to provide a comparable rating. A series of questionnaires were used to collect data to calculate the Degree of Interaction and User Satisfaction ratings.

Innovation networks in the construction arena : the strategic management of mixed enterprises

The building and construction sector is one of the five largest contributors to the Australian economy and is a key performance component in the economy of many other jurisdictions. However, the ongoing viability of this sector is increasingly reliant on its ability to foster and transfer innovated products and practices. Interorganisational networks, which bring together key industry stakeholders and facilitate the flows of information, resources and trust necessary to secure innovation, have emerged as a key growth strategy within this and other arenas. The blending of organisations, resources and purposes creates new, hybrid institutional forms that draw on a mix of contract, structure and interpersonal relationship as integration processes. This paper argues that hybrid networked arrangements, because they incorporate relational elements, require management strategies and techniques that not always synonymous with conventional management approaches, including those used within the building and construction sector. It traces the emergence of the Construction Innovation Project in Australia as a hybrid institutional arrangement moulding public, private and academic stakeholders of the building and construction industry into a coherent collective force aimed at fostering innovation and its application within all levels of the industry. Specifically, the paper examines the Construction Innovation Project to ascertain the impact of relational governance and its management to harness and leverage the skills, resources and capacities of members to secure innovative outcomes. Finally, the paper offers some prospects to guide the ongoing work of this body and any other charged with a similar integrative responsibility.

Attitudes to living and working in pandemic conditions among emergency prehospital medical care personnel

Introduction: Little is known about the risk perceptions and attitudes of healthcare personnel, especially of emergency prehospital medical care personnel, regarding the possibility of an outbreak or epidemic event. Problem: This study was designed to investigate pre-event knowledge and attitudes of a national sample of the emergency prehospital medical care providers in relation to a potential human influenza pandemic, and to determine predictors of these attitudes. Methods: Surveys were distributed to a random, cross-sectional sample of 20% of the Australian emergency prehospital medical care workforce (n = 2,929), stratified by the nine services operating in Australia, as well as by gender and location. The surveys included: (1) demographic information; (2) knowledge of influenza; and (3) attitudes and perceptions related to working during influenza pandemic conditions. Multiple logistic regression models were constructed to identify predictors of pandemic-related risk perceptions. Results: Among the 725 Australian emergency prehospital medical care personnel who responded, 89% were very anxious about working during pandemic conditions, and 85% perceived a high personal risk associated with working in such conditions. In general, respondents demonstrated poor knowledge in relation to avian influenza, influenza generally, and infection transmission methods. Less than 5% of respondents perceived that they had adequate education/training about avian influenza. Logistic regression analyses indicate that, in managing the attitudes and risk perceptions of emergency prehospital medical care staff, particular attention should be directed toward the paid, male workforce (as opposed to volunteers), and on personnel whose relationship partners do not work in the health industry. Conclusions: These results highlight the potentially crucial role of education and training in pandemic preparedness. Organizations that provide emergency prehospital medical care must address this apparent lack of knowledge regarding infection transmission, and procedures for protection and decontamination. Careful management of the perceptions of emergency prehospital medical care personnel during a pandemic is likely to be critical in achieving an effective response to a widespread outbreak of infectious disease.

Using data mining on road asset management data in analysing road crashes

Road safety is a major concern worldwide. Road safety will improve as road conditions and their effects on crashes are continually investigated. This paper proposes to use the capability of data mining to include the greater set of road variables for all available crashes with skid resistance values across the Queensland state main road network in order to understand the relationships among crash, traffic and road variables. This paper presents a data mining based methodology for the road asset management data to find out the various road properties that contribute unduly to crashes. The models demonstrate high levels of accuracy in predicting crashes in roads when various road properties are included. This paper presents the findings of these models to show the relationships among skid resistance, crashes, crash characteristics and other road characteristics such as seal type, seal age, road type, texture depth, lane count, pavement width, rutting, speed limit, traffic rates intersections, traffic signage and road design and so on.

Strategic management of technology in construction : a framework and case study

This case study analyzes a firm's technology strategy for its fit or match with the requirements of the industry environment in which it operates. Understanding the relationships between market characteristics and technology strategies can assist managers in making complex and difficult decisions regarding their use of technology to improve competitive performance. Using the technology strategy framework, managers can map their own capabilities for comparison with the more appropriate or superior approach to technology in that industry environment. Alternatively, firms seeking to transition from one industry niche or environment to another could identify and move to acquire the required capabilities. The dynamics of industry competition, both domestic and international, emphasize the need for improved management of the strategic fit between technical capabilities and industry environment.