Uncertainties in projecting climate-change impacts in marine ecosystems

Projections of the impacts of climate change on marine ecosystems are a key prerequisite for the planning of adaptation strategies, yet they are inevitably associated with uncertainty. Identifying, quantifying, and communicating this uncertainty is key to both evaluating the risk associated with a projection and building confidence in its robustness. We review how uncertainties in such projections are handled in marine science. We employ an approach developed in climate modelling by breaking uncertainty down into (i) structural (model) uncertainty, (ii) initialization and internal variability uncertainty, (iii) parametric uncertainty, and (iv) scenario uncertainty. For each uncertainty type, we then examine the current state-of-the-art in assessing and quantifying its relative importance. We consider whether the marine scientific community has addressed these types of uncertainty sufficiently and highlight the opportunities and challenges associated with doing a better job. We find that even within a relatively small field such as marine science, there are substantial differences between subdisciplines in the degree of attention given to each type of uncertainty. We find that initialization uncertainty is rarely treated explicitly and reducing this type of uncertainty may deliver gains on the seasonal-to-decadal time-scale. We conclude that all parts of marine science could benefit from a greater exchange of ideas, particularly concerning such a universal problem such as the treatment of uncertainty. Finally, marine science should strive to reach the point where scenario uncertainty is the dominant uncertainty in our projections.

Sea otter predation and the distribution of bivalve prey in the Elkhorn Slough National Estuarine Research Reserve

The California sea otter population is gradually expanding in size and geographic range and is consequently invading new feeding grounds, including bays and estuaries that are home to extensive populations of bivalve prey. One such area is the Elkhorn Slough, where otters have apparently established a spring and summer communal feeding and resting area. In anticipation of future otter foraging in the slough, an extensive baseline database on bivalve densities, size distributions, biomasses, and burrow depths has been established for three potential bivalve prey species, Saxidomus nuttalli, Tresus nutallii, and Zirphaea pilsbryi. In 1986, the Elkhorn Slough otters were foraging predominately at two areas immediately east and west of the Highway 1 bridge (Skipper's and the PG&E Outfall). Extensive subtidal populations of Saxidomus nuttalli and Tresus nuttallii occur in these areas. Shell records collected at these study areas indicated that sea otters were foraging selectively on Saxidomus over Tresus. The reason for this apparent preference was not clear. At the Skipper's study site, 51% of the shell record was composed of Saxidomus, yet this species accounted for only 16% of the in situ biomass, and only 39% of the available clams. Tresus represented 49% of the shell record at Skipper's, yet this species accounted for 84% of the in situ biomass and 61% of the available clams. There was no difference in mean burrow depth between the two species at this site so availability does not explain the disparity in consumption. At the PG&E Outfall, Saxidomus represents 66% of the in situ biomass and 81% of the available clams, while Tresus accounts for 34% of the in situ biomass and 19% of the available clams. Saxidomus accounts for 96% of the shell record at this site vs. 4% for Tresus, again indicating that the otters were preying on Saxidomus out of proportion to their density or biomass. High densities and biomasses of a third species, Zirphaea pilsbryi, occur in areas where sea otters were observed to be foraging, yet no cast-off Zirphaea shells were found. Although it is possible this species was not represented in the shell record because the otters were simply chewing up the shells, it is more likely this species is avoided by sea otters. There were relatively few sea otters in the Elkhorn Slough in 1986 compared to the previous two years. This, coupled with high bivalve densities, precluded any quantitative comparison of bivalve densities before and after the 1986 sea otter occupation. Qualitative observations made during the course of this study, and quantitative observations from previous studies indicate that, after 3 years, sea otters are not yet significantly affecting bivalve densities in the Elkhorn Slough.

Impacts of high-nitrate freshwater inputs on macrotidal ecosystems. I. Seasonal evolution of nutrient limitation for the diatom-dominated phytoplankton of the Bay of Brest (France)

The chemical factors (inorganic nitrogen, phosphate, silicic acid) that potentially or actually control primary production were determined for the Bay of Brest, France, a macrotidal ecosystem submitted to high-nitrate-loaded freshwater inputs (winter nitrate freshwater concentrations >700 mu M, Si:N molar ratio as low as 0.2, i.e. among the lowest ever published). Intensive data collection and observations were carried out from February 1993 to March 1994 to determine the variations of physical [salinity, temperature, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), freshwater discharges] and chemical (oxygen and nutrients) parameters and their impacts on the phytoplankton cycle (fluorescence, pigments, primary production). With insufficient PAR the winter stocks of nutrients were almost nonutilized and the nitrate excess was exported to the adjacent ocean, due to rapid tidal exchange. By early April, a diatom-dominated spring bloom developed (chlorophyll a maximum = 7.7 mu g l(-1); primary production maximum = 2.34 g C m(-2) d(-1)) under high initial nutrient concentrations. Silicic acid was rapidly exhausted over the whole water column; it is inferred to be the primary limiting factor responsible for the collapse of the spring bloom by mid-May. Successive phytoplankton developments characterized the period of secondary blooms during summer and fall (successive surface chlorophyll a maxima = 3.5, 1.6, 1.8 and 1.0 mu g l(-1); primary production = 1.24, 1.18 and 0.35 g C m(-2) d(-1)). Those secondary blooms developed under lower nutrient concentrations, mostly originating from nutrient recycling. Until August, Si and P most likely limited primary production, whereas the last stage of the productive period in September seemed to be N limited instead, this being a period of total nitrate depletion in almost the whole water column. Si limitation of spring blooms has become a common feature in coastal ecosystems that receive freshwater inputs with Si:N molar ratios <1. The peculiarity of Si Limitation in the Bay of Brest is its extension through the summer period.

The Kinome of Pacific Oyster Crassostrea gigas, Its Expression during Development and in Response to Environmental Factors

Oysters play an important role in estuarine and coastal marine habitats, where the majority of humans live. In these ecosystems, environmental degradation is substantial, and oysters must cope with highly dynamic and stressful environmental constraints during their lives in the intertidal zone. The availability of the genome sequence of the Pacific oyster Crassostrea gigas represents a unique opportunity for a comprehensive assessment of the signal transduction pathways that the species has developed to deal with this unique habitat. We performed an in silico analysis to identify, annotate and classify protein kinases in C. gigas, according to their kinase domain taxonomy classification, and compared with kinome already described in other animal species. The C. gigas kinome consists of 371 protein kinases, making it closely related to the sea urchin kinome, which has 353 protein kinases. The absence of gene redundancy in some groups of the C. gigas kinome may simplify functional studies of protein kinases. Through data mining of transcriptomes in C. gigas, we identified part of the kinome which may be central during development and may play a role in response to various environmental factors. Overall, this work contributes to a better understanding of key sensing pathways that may be central for adaptation to a highly dynamic marine environment.

Adaptive Mechanisms of an Estuarine Synechococcus based on Genomics, Transcriptomics, and Proteomics

Picocyanobacteria are important phytoplankton and primary producers in the ocean. Although extensive work has been conducted for picocyanobacteria (i.e. Synechococcus and Prochlorococcus) in coastal and oceanic waters, little is known about those found in estuaries like the Chesapeake Bay. Synechococcus CB0101, an estuarine isolate, is more tolerant to shifts in temperature, salinity, and metal toxicity than coastal and oceanic Synechococcus strains, WH7803 and WH7805. Further, CB0101 has a greater sensitivity to high light intensity, likely due to its adaptation to low light environments. A complete and annotated genome sequence of CB0101 was completed to explore its genetic capacity and to serve as a basis for further molecular analysis. Comparative genomics between CB0101, WH7803, and WH7805 show that CB0101 contains more genes involved in regulation, sensing, and stress response. At the transcript and protein level, CB0101 regulates its metabolic pathways, transport systems, and sensing mechanisms when nitrate and phosphate are limited. Zinc toxicity led to oxidative stress and a global down regulation of photosystems and the translation machinery. From the stress response studies seven chromosomal toxin-antitoxin (TA) genes, were identified in CB0101, which led to the discovery of TA genes in several marine Synechococcus strains. The activation of the relB2/relE1 TA system allows CB0101 to arrest its growth under stressful conditions, but the growth arrest is reversible, once the stressful environment dissipates. The genome of CB0101 contains a relatively large number of genomic island (GI) genes compared to known marine Synechococcus genomes. Interestingly, a massive shutdown (255 out of 343) of GI genes occurred after CB0101 was infected by a lytic phage. On the other hand, phage-encoded host-like proteins (hli, psbA, ThyX) were highly expressed upon phage infection. This research provides new evidence that estuarine Synechococcus like CB0101 have inherited unique genetic machinery, which allows them to be versatile in the estuarine environment.

Ecotoxicology of Nano-TiO2 An Evaluation of its Toxicity to Organisms of Aquatic Ecosystems

The production and use of synthetic nanoparticles is growing rapidly, and therefore the presence of these materials in the environment seems inevitable. Titanium dioxide (TiO2) presents various possible uses in industry, cosmetics, and even in the treatment of contaminated environments. Studies about the potential ecotoxicological risks of TiO2 nanoparticles (nano-TiO2) have been published but their results are still inconclusive. It should be noted that the properties of the diverse nano-TiO2 must be considered in order to establish experimental models to study their toxicity to environmentally relevant species. Moreover, the lack of descriptions and characterization of nanoparticles, as well as differences in the experimental conditions employed, have been a compromising factor in the comparison of results obtained in various studies. Therefore, the purpose of this paper is to make a simple review of the principal properties of TiO2, especially in nanoparticulate form, which should be considered in aquatic toxicology studies, and a compilation of the works that have been published on the subject.

Changes in phytoplankton composition in response to tides, wind-induced mixing conditions, and freshwater outflows in an urbanised estuarine complex

Estudos recentes na baía de Santos (sudeste do Brasil), localizada em um sistema estuarino altamente urbanizado, mostraram o aumento de espécies fitoplanctônicas potencialmente nocivas. Apesar da importância da previsão das florações algais nocivas, é difícil determinar a estrutura da comunidade fitoplanctônica em ambientes extremamente dinâmicos. O presente estudo analisa florações dominadas pelo microfitoplâncton e sua relação com variáveis físicas e meteorológicas, a fim de determinar padrões associados às marés e às estações do ano. Foram comparadas oito situações e obtidos cinco cenários de dominância relacionados aos ventos, marés e pluviosidade: i) Surfers, diatomáceas associadas à zona de surfe, de alta energia; ii) Sinkers, diatomáceas de tamanho grande que ocorrem nas marés de sizígia, depois de períodos de alta pluviosidade; iii) Opportunistic mixers, diatomáceas pequenas ou alongadas, formadoras de cadeia, que ocorrem durante períodos de quadratura; iv) Local mixers, diatomáceas e dinoflagelados microplanctônicos que foram abundantes em todas as 298 estações amostradas, e v) Mixotrophic dinoflagellates, que ocorrem após intensas descargas estuarinas. Os resultados sugerem uma alteração no padrão temporal de algumas espécies formadoras de florações, enquanto outras apresentaram abundâncias superiores aos valores seguros para a saúde publica. Esta abordagem ilustra também os possíveis impactos de variações na descarga de água doce em estuários altamente eutrofizados.

Ecotoxicological assessment of sediments from the Santos and São Vicente estuarine system- Brazil

O sedimento representa um importante depósito de contaminantes e uma fonte de contaminação para a cadeia alimentar aquática. Testes de toxicidade usando anfípodos como organismos-teste são empregados para avaliar sedimentos marinhos e estuarinos, juntamente com análises químicas. O presente trabalho tem como objetivo avaliar a qualidade de sedimentos de seis estações situadas no Sistema Estuarino e Portuário de Santos e São Vicente (São Paulo-Brasil), usando testes de toxicidade aguda com sedimento com anfípodos (Tiburonella viscana) e análises químicas de metais, PCB, e PAH. Outros parâmetros do sedimento foram analisados, como carbono orgânico e granulometria. Foram observados níveis de contaminação mais altos na porção interna do estuário onde se localiza o Porto de Santos e a zona industrial. Os testes de toxicidade mostraram resultados adversos significantes para a maioria das amostras testadas, e os sedimentos da porção interna do estuário apresentaram toxicidade mais alta. As análises de componentes principais indicaram uma relação forte entre contaminação do sedimento e toxicidade. As correlações positivas destes fatores nas amostras estudadas foram usadas para estabelecer os pesos das concentrações químicas que estão associadas com os efeitos adversos. Tais análises permitiram estimar valores limiares de efeito para a contaminação de sedimento através de análises multivariadas, identificando os contaminantes associados com o efeito biológico. Estes valores sugeridos são: Cu, 69.0; Pb, 17.4; Zn, 73.3(mg.kg-1); PAHs, 0.5 (mg.kg-1) e PCBs, 0.1 (µg.kg-1).

Contamination of port zone sediments by metals from Large Marine Ecosystems of Brazil

Sediment contamination by metals poses risks to coastal ecosystems and is considered to be problematic to dredging operations. In Brazil, there are differences in sedimentology along the Large Marine Ecosystems in relation to the metal distributions. We aimed to assess the extent of Al, Fe, Hg, Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn contamination in sediments from port zones in northeast (Mucuripe and Pecem) and southeast (Santos) Brazil through geochemical analyses and sediment quality ratings. The metal concentrations found in these port zones were higher than those observed in the continental shelf or the background values in both regions. In the northeast, metals were associated with carbonate, while in Santos, they were associated with mud. Geochemical analyses showed enrichments in Hg, Cd, Cu, Ni and Zn, and a simple application of international sediment quality guidelines failed to predict their impacts, whereas the use of site-specific values that were derived by geochemical and ecotoxicological approaches seemed to be more appropriate in the management of the dredged sediments. (C) 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Harmonised framework for ecological risk assessment of sediments from ports and estuarine zones of North and South Atlantic

This paper presents a harmonised framework of sediment quality assessment and dredging material characterisation for estuaries and port zones of North and South Atlantic. This framework, based on the weight-of-evidence approach, provides a structure and a process for conducting sediment/dredging material assessment that leads to a decision. The main structure consists of step 1 (examination of available data); step 2 (chemical characterisation and toxicity assessment); decision 1 (any chemical level higher than reference values? are sediments toxic?); step 3 (assessment of benthic community structure); step 4 (integration of the results); decision 2 (are sediments toxic or benthic community impaired?); step 5 (construction of the decision matrix) and decision 3 (is there environmental risk?). The sequence of assessments may be interrupted when the information obtained is judged to be sufficient for a correct characterisation of the risk posed by the sediments/dredging material. This framework brought novel features compared to other sediment/dredging material risk assessment frameworks: data integration through multivariate analysis allows the identification of which samples are toxic and/or related to impaired benthic communities; it also discriminates the chemicals responsible for negative biological effects; and the framework dispenses the use of a reference area. We demonstrated the successful application of this framework in different port and estuarine zones of the North (Gulf of Cadiz) and South Atlantic (Santos and Paranagua Estuarine Systems).

Integrated sediment quality assessment in Paranagua Estuarine System, Southern Brazil

Sediment quality from Paranagua Estuarine System (PES), a highly important port and ecological zone, was evaluated by assessing three lines of evidence: (1) sediment physical-chemical characteristics; (2) sediment toxicity (elutriates, sediment-water interface, and whole sediment); and (3) benthic community structure. Results revealed a gradient of increasing degradation of sediments (i.e. higher concentrations of trace metals, higher toxicity, and impoverishment of benthic community structure) towards inner PES. Data integration by principal component analysis (PCA) showed positive correlation between some contaminants (mainly As, Cr, Ni, and Pb) and toxicity in samples collected from stations located in upper estuary and one station placed away from contamination sources. Benthic community structure seems to be affected by both pollution and natural fine characteristics of the sediments, which reinforces the importance of a weight-of-evidence approach to evaluate sediments of PES. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Size-related shifts in dietary composition of Centropomus parallelus (Perciformes: Centropomidae) in an estuarine ecosystem of the southeastern coast of Brazil

Size-related and seasonal evaluation of the dietary composition of fat snook (Centropomus parallelus Poey 1860) in the upper sector of an estuary of the southeastern coast of Brazil were carried out based on stomach analyses of specimens ranging from 40 to 170 mm standard length. Results reveal that C. parallelus is a carnivorous species feeding mainly on benthic crustaceans. Relatively high stomach replenishment suggests that this environment is an important feeding ground for fat snook juveniles. Multivariate analyses indicated that predator size effect is significantly more important than seasonal variation in determining dietary composition. Predator length was associated with increased consumption of palaemonid shrimps (Macrobrachium spp.) and grapsid crabs, and decreased foraging on tanaids (Kalliapseudes schubarti), thus showing a preference shift from smaller to larger prey. Predator length was also positively associated with an increase in the stomach repletion index. Additionally, allometric growth of both gape and head were consistently correlated with this ontogenetic dietary transition, suggesting that such changes might be related to an individual's ability to capture and consume larger, more elusive prey. The digestive tube is short and grows isometrically, which is in accordance with the carnivorous habit of this estuarine fish and its maintenance through ontogeny.