Estimating the mean and standard deviation of concentration distributions using censored samples

Environmental data sets of pollutant concentrations in air, water, and soil frequently include unquantified sample values reported only as being below the analytical method detection limit. These values, referred to as censored values, should be considered in the estimation of distribution parameters as each represents some value of pollutant concentration between zero and the detection limit. Most of the currently accepted methods for estimating the population parameters of environmental data sets containing censored values rely upon the assumption of an underlying normal (or transformed normal) distribution. This assumption can result in unacceptable levels of error in parameter estimation due to the unbounded left tail of the normal distribution. With the beta distribution, which is bounded by the same range of a distribution of concentrations, $\rm\lbrack0\le x\le1\rbrack,$ parameter estimation errors resulting from improper distribution bounds are avoided. This work developed a method that uses the beta distribution to estimate population parameters from censored environmental data sets and evaluated its performance in comparison to currently accepted methods that rely upon an underlying normal (or transformed normal) distribution. Data sets were generated assuming typical values encountered in environmental pollutant evaluation for mean, standard deviation, and number of variates. For each set of model values, data sets were generated assuming that the data was distributed either normally, lognormally, or according to a beta distribution. For varying levels of censoring, two established methods of parameter estimation, regression on normal ordered statistics, and regression on lognormal ordered statistics, were used to estimate the known mean and standard deviation of each data set. The method developed for this study, employing a beta distribution assumption, was also used to estimate parameters and the relative accuracy of all three methods were compared. For data sets of all three distribution types, and for censoring levels up to 50%, the performance of the new method equaled, if not exceeded, the performance of the two established methods. Because of its robustness in parameter estimation regardless of distribution type or censoring level, the method employing the beta distribution should be considered for full development in estimating parameters for censored environmental data sets. ^

Estimation of heart weight by post-mortem cardiac magnetic resonance imaging

Introduction The aim of this study was to determine which single measurement on post-mortem cardiac MR reflects actual heart weight as measured at autopsy, assess the intra- and inter-observer reliability of MR measurements, derive a formula to predict heart weight from MR measurements and test the accuracy of the formula to prospectively predict heart weight. Materials and methods 53 human cadavers underwent post-mortem cardiac MR and forensic autopsy. In Phase 1, left ventricular area and wall thickness were measured on short axis and four chamber view images of 29 cases. All measurements were correlated to heart weight at autopsy using linear regression analysis. In Phase 2, single left ventricular area measurements on four chamber view images (LVA_4C) from 24 cases were used to predict heart weight at autopsy based on equations derived during Phase 1. Intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) was used to determine inter- and intra-reader agreement. Results Heart weight strongly correlates with LVA_4C (r=0.78 M; p<0.001). Intra-reader and inter-reader reliability was excellent for LVA_4C (ICC=0.81–0.91; p<0.001 and ICC=0.90; p<0.001 respectively). A simplified formula for heart weight ([g]≈LVA_4C [mm2]×0.11) was derived based on linear regression analysis. Conclusions This study shows that single circumferential area measurements of the left ventricle in the four chamber view on post-mortem cardiac MR reflect actual heart weight as measured at autopsy. These measurements yield an excellent intra- and inter-reader reliability and can be used to predict heart weight prior to autopsy or to give a reasonable estimate of heart weight in cases where autopsy is not performed.

Efficient estimation of the total number of acini in adult rat lung

Pulmonary airways are subdivided into conducting and gas-exchanging airways. An acinus is defined as the small tree of gas-exchanging airways, which is fed by the most distal purely conducting airway. Until now a dissector of five consecutive sections or airway casts were used to count acini. We developed a faster method to estimate the number of acini in young adult rats. Right middle lung lobes were critical point dried or paraffin embedded after heavy metal staining and imaged by X-ray micro-CT or synchrotron radiation-based X-rays tomographic microscopy. The entrances of the acini were counted in three-dimensional (3D) stacks of images by scrolling through them and using morphological criteria (airway wall thickness and appearance of alveoli). Segmentation stopper were placed at the acinar entrances for 3D visualizations of the conducting airways. We observed that acinar airways start at various generations and that one transitional bronchiole may serve more than one acinus. A mean of 5612 (±547) acini per lung and a mean airspace volume of 0.907 (±0.108) μL per acinus were estimated. In 60-day-old rats neither the number of acini nor the mean acinar volume did correlate with the body weight or the lung volume.

Colour measurement of colostrum for estimation of colostral IgG and colostrum composition in dairy cows

Instruments for on-farm determination of colostrum quality such as refractometers and densimeters are increasingly used in dairy farms. The colour of colostrum is also supposed to reflect its quality. A paler or mature milk-like colour is associated with a lower colostrum value in terms of its general composition compared with a more yellowish and darker colour. The objective of this study was to investigate the relationships between colour measurement of colostrum using the CIELAB colour space (CIE L*=from white to black, a*=from red to green, b*=from yellow to blue, chroma value G=visual perceived colourfulness) and its composition. Dairy cow colostrum samples (n=117) obtained at 4·7±1·5 h after parturition were analysed for immunoglobulin G (IgG) by ELISA and for fat, protein and lactose by infrared spectroscopy. For colour measurements, a calibrated spectrophotometer was used. At a cut-off value of 50 mg IgG/ml, colour measurement had a sensitivity of 50·0%, a specificity of 49·5%, and a negative predictive value of 87·9%. Colostral IgG concentration was not correlated with the chroma value G, but with relative lightness L*. While milk fat content showed a relationship to the parameters L*, a*, b* and G from the colour measurement, milk protein content was not correlated with a*, but with L*, b*, and G. Lactose concentration in colostrum showed only a relationship with b* and G. In conclusion, parameters of the colour measurement showed clear relationships to colostral IgG, fat, protein and lactose concentration in dairy cows. Implementation of colour measuring devices in automatic milking systems and milking parlours might be a potential instrument to access colostrum quality as well as detecting abnormal milk.

The First Density Estimation of an Isolated Eurasian Lynx Population in Southwest Asia

During November 2010–February 2011, we used camera traps to estimate the population density of Eurasian lynx Lynx lynx in Ciglikara Nature Reserve, Turkey, an isolated population in southwest Asia. Lynx density was calculated through spatial capture—recapture models. In a sampling eff ort of 1093 camera trap days, we identifi ed 15 independent individuals and estimated a density of 4.20 independent lynx per 100 km2, an unreported high density for this species. Camera trap results also indicated that the lynx is likely to be preying on brown hare Lepus europaeus, which accounted for 63% of the non-target species pictured. As lagomorph populations tend to fl uctuate, the high lynx density recorded in Ciglikara may be temporary and may decline with prey fl uctuation. Therefore we recommend to survey other protected areas in southwestern Turkey where lynx is known or assumed to exist, and continuously monitor the lynx populations with reliable methods in order to understand the populations structure and dynamics, defi ne sensible measures and management plans to conserve this important species.

The impact of common versus separate estimation of orbit parameters on GRACE gravity field solutions

Gravity field parameters are usually determined from observations of the GRACE satellite mission together with arc-specific parameters in a generalized orbit determination process. When separating the estimation of gravity field parameters from the determination of the satellites’ orbits, correlations between orbit parameters and gravity field coefficients are ignored and the latter parameters are biased towards the a priori force model. We are thus confronted with a kind of hidden regularization. To decipher the underlying mechanisms, the Celestial Mechanics Approach is complemented by tools to modify the impact of the pseudo-stochastic arc-specific parameters on the normal equations level and to efficiently generate ensembles of solutions. By introducing a time variable a priori model and solving for hourly pseudo-stochastic accelerations, a significant reduction of noisy striping in the monthly solutions can be achieved. Setting up more frequent pseudo-stochastic parameters results in a further reduction of the noise, but also in a notable damping of the observed geophysical signals. To quantify the effect of the a priori model on the monthly solutions, the process of fixing the orbit parameters is replaced by an equivalent introduction of special pseudo-observations, i.e., by explicit regularization. The contribution of the thereby introduced a priori information is determined by a contribution analysis. The presented mechanism is valid universally. It may be used to separate any subset of parameters by pseudo-observations of a special design and to quantify the damage imposed on the solution.

P-T-t estimation of syn-kinematic strain in low-grade quartz-feldspar bearing rocks using thermodynamic modeling and 40Ar/39Ar dating techniques: example of the Plan-de-Phasy shear zone unit (Briançonnais Zone, Western Alps)

Pressure–Temperature–time (P–T–t) estimates of the syn-kinematic strain at the peak-pressure conditions reached during shallow underthrusting of the Briançonnais Zone in the Alpine subduction zone was made by thermodynamic modelling and 40Ar/39Ar dating in the Plan-de-Phasy unit (SE of the Pelvoux Massif, Western Alps). The dated phengite minerals crystallized syn-kinematically in a shear zone indicating top-to-the-N motion. By combining X-ray mapping with multi-equilibrium calculations, we estimate the phengite crystallization conditions at 270 ± 50 °C and 8.1 ± 2 kbar at an age of 45.9 ± 1.1 Ma. Combining this P–T–t estimate with data from the literature allows us to constrain the timing and geometry of Alpine continental subduction. We propose that the Briançonnais units were scalped on top of the slab during ongoing continental subduction and exhumed continuously until collision.

Consistent estimation of the fixed effects ordered logit model

The paper considers panel data methods for estimating ordered logit models with individual-specific correlated unobserved heterogeneity. We show that a popular approach is inconsistent, whereas some consistent and efficient estimators are available, including minimum distance and generalized method-of-moment estimators. A Monte Carlo study reveals the good properties of an alternative estimator that has not been considered in econometric applications before, is simple to implement and almost as efficient. An illustrative application based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel confirms the large negative effect of unemployment on life satisfaction that has been found in the previous literature.

Identification and estimation of thresholds in the fixed effects ordered logit model

This paper proposes a new estimator for the fixed effects ordered logit model. In contrast to existing methods, the new procedure allows estimating the thresholds. The empirical relevance and simplicity of implementation is illustrated in an application on the effect of unemployment on life satisfaction.

Estimation of reference curves for the urinary steroid metabolome in the first year of life in healthy children: tracing the complexity of human postnatal steroidogenesis

CONTEXT Complex steroid disorders such as P450 oxidoreductase deficiency or apparent cortisone reductase deficiency may be recognized by steroid profiling using chromatographic mass spectrometric methods. These methods are highly specific and sensitive, and provide a complete spectrum of steroid metabolites in a single measurement of one sample which makes them superior to immunoassays. The steroid metabolome during the fetal-neonatal transition is characterized by a) the metabolites of the fetal-placental unit at birth, b) the fetal adrenal androgens until its involution 3-6 months postnatally, and c) the steroid metabolites produced by the developing endocrine organs. All these developmental events change the steroid metabolome in an age- and sex-dependent manner during the first year of life. OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to provide normative values for the urinary steroid metabolome of healthy newborns at short time intervals in the first year of life. METHODS We conducted a prospective, longitudinal study to measure 67 urinary steroid metabolites in 21 male and 22 female term healthy newborn infants at 13 time-points from week 1 to week 49 of life. Urine samples were collected from newborn infants before discharge from hospital and from healthy infants at home. Steroid metabolites were measured by gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) and steroid concentrations corrected for urinary creatinine excretion were calculated. RESULTS 61 steroids showed age and 15 steroids sex specificity. Highest urinary steroid concentrations were found in both sexes for progesterone derivatives, in particular 20α-DH-5α-DH-progesterone, and for highly polar 6α-hydroxylated glucocorticoids. The steroids peaked at week 3 and decreased by ∼80% at week 25 in both sexes. The decline of progestins, androgens and estrogens was more pronounced than of glucocorticoids whereas the excretion of corticosterone and its metabolites and of mineralocorticoids remained constant during the first year of life. CONCLUSION The urinary steroid profile changes dramatically during the first year of life and correlates with the physiologic developmental changes during the fetal-neonatal transition. Thus detailed normative data during this time period permit the use of steroid profiling as a powerful diagnostic tool.

New Algorithms for M-Estimation of Multivariate Scatter and Location

We present new algorithms for M-estimators of multivariate scatter and location and for symmetrized M-estimators of multivariate scatter. The new algorithms are considerably faster than currently used fixed-point and related algorithms. The main idea is to utilize a second order Taylor expansion of the target functional and to devise a partial Newton-Raphson procedure. In connection with symmetrized M-estimators we work with incomplete U-statistics to accelerate our procedures initially.

Stereological estimation of particle shape and orientation from volume tensors

In the present paper, we describe new robust methods of estimating cell shape and orientation in 3D from sections. The descriptors of 3D cell shape and orientation are based on volume tensors which are used to construct an ellipsoid, the Miles ellipsoid, approximating the average cell shape and orientation in 3D. The estimators of volume tensors are based on observations in several optical planes through sampled cells. This type of geometric sampling design is known as the optical rotator. The statistical behaviour of the estimator of the Miles ellipsoid is studied under a flexible model for 3D cell shape and orientation. In a simulation study, the lengths of the axes of the Miles ellipsoid can be estimated with CVs of about 2% if 100 cells are sampled. Finally, we illustrate the use of the developed methods in an example, involving neurons in the medial prefrontal cortex of rat.

Prevalence estimation of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) antibodies in dogs from Finland using novel dog anti-TBEV IgG MAb-capture and IgG immunofluorescence assay based on recombinant TBEV subviral particles

Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is one of the most dangerous human neurological infections occurring in Europe and Northern parts of Asia with thousands of cases and millions vaccinated against it. The risk of TBE might be assessed through analyses of the samples taken from wildlife or from animals which are in close contact with humans. Dogs have been shown to be a good sentinel species for these studies. Serological assays for diagnosis of TBE in dogs are mainly based on purified and inactivated TBEV antigens. Here we describe novel dog anti-TBEV IgG monoclonal antibody (MAb)-capture assay which is based on TBEV prME subviral particles expressed in mammalian cells from Semliki Forest virus (SFV) replicon as well as IgG immunofluorescence assay (IFA) which is based on Vero E6 cells transfected with the same SFV replicon. We further demonstrate their use in a small-scale TBEV seroprevalence study of dogs representing different regions of Finland. Altogether, 148 dog serum samples were tested by novel assays and results were compared to those obtained with a commercial IgG enzyme immunoassay (EIA), hemagglutination inhibition test and IgG IFA with TBEV infected cells. Compared to reference tests, the sensitivities of the developed assays were 90-100% and the specificities of the two assays were 100%. Analysis of the dog serum samples showed a seroprevalence of 40% on Åland Islands and 6% on Southwestern archipelago of Finland. In conclusion, a specific and sensitive EIA and IFA for the detection of IgG antibodies in canine sera were developed. Based on these assays the seroprevalence of IgG antibodies in dogs from different regions of Finland was assessed and was shown to parallel the known human disease burden as the Southwestern archipelago and Åland Islands in particular had considerable dog TBEV antibody prevalence and represent areas with high risk of TBE for humans.