979 resultados para Escore quadrático de probabilidade


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High levels of local, regional, and global extinctions has progressively simplified communities in terms of both species and ecosystem functioning. Theoretical models demonstrated that the degree of functional redundancy determines the rates of functional group loss in response to species extinctions. Here, we improve the theoretical predictions by incorporating in the model interactions between species and between functional groups. In this study, we tested the effect of different scenarios of interspecific interactions and effects between functional groups on the resistance to loss of community functional groups. Virtual communities have been built with different distribution patterns of species in functional groups, both with high and low evenness. A matrix A was created to represent the net effect of interspecific interactions among all species, representing nesting patterns, modularity, sensitive species, and dominant species. Moreover, a second matrix B was created to represent the interactions between functional groups, also exhibiting different patterns. The extinction probability of each species was calculated based on community species richness and by the intensity of the interspecific interactions that act upon it and group to which it belongs. In the model, successive extinctions decrease the community species richness, the degree of functional redundancy and, consequently, the number of functional groups that remain in the system. For each scenario of functional redundancy, A, and B, we ran 1000 simulations to generate an average functional extinction curve. Different model assumptions were able to generate remarkable variation on functional extinction curves. More extreme variations occurred when the matrix A and B caused a higher heterogeneity in the species extinction probability. Scenarios with sensitive species, positive or negative, showed a greater variation than the scenarios with dominant species. Nested interactions showed greater variation than scenarios where the interactions were in modules. Communities with maximal functional evenness can only be destabilized by the interactions between species and functional groups. In contrast, communities with low functional evenness can have its resistance either increased or decreased by the interactions. The concentration of positive interactions in low redundancy groups or negative interactions in high redundancy groups was able to decrease the functional extinction rates. In contrast, the concentration of negative interactions in low redundancy groups or positive interactions in high redundancy groups was able to increase the functional extinction rates. This model shows results that are relevant for species priorization in ecosystem conservation and restoration

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico

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Analisou-se a produção do tomateiro, híbrido longa vida Carmen, cultivado em quatro substratos, com fertirrigação semanal e duas vezes por semana. O delineamento experimental utilizado foi blocos casualizados, em esquema fatorial 4 x 2 (quatro substratos e duas formas de fertirrigação), em quatro repetições. Os substratos testados foram: S1 = areia fina (0,250 - 0,105 mm); S2 = 1/2 areia fina + 1/2 bagaço de cana-de-açúcar; S3 = 1/2 areia fina + 1/2 casca de amendoim moída (passada em peneira com abertura de 7 x 18 mm) e S4 = 1/3 areia fina + 1/3 bagaço de cana-de-açúcar + 1/3 casca de amendoim moída. As fertirrigações avaliadas foram: F1 = fertirrigação realizada uma vez por semana, com aplicação da quantidade total de nutrientes e, F2 = fertirrigação realizada duas vezes por semana, com aplicação da metade da quantidade total de nutrientes, demandada por semana, em cada vez. A quantidade de nutrientes, em mg L-1, fornecida por meio de fertirrigação, foi: 200 de nitrogênio, 60 de fósforo, 350 de potássio, 206 de cálcio, 60 de magnésio, 150 de enxofre, 0,50 de boro, 0,10 de cobre, 2 de ferro, 0,75 de manganês, 0,10 de zinco e 0,01 de molibdênio. A dotação hídrica foi realizada em função dos dados obtidos em um tanque classe A, localizado no centro da casa de vegetação. Avaliou-se a altura das plantas, o número de cachos e de frutos por planta, o peso individual do fruto e a produção por planta. Os dados foram submetidos à análise de variância e as médias foram comparadas pelo teste de Tukey, ao nível de 5% de probabilidade. Verificou-se que a fertirrigação realizada duas vezes por semana, suprindo a demanda total de nutrientes da semana, resultou em consideráveis melhorias de produção. Os substratos utilizados, com exceção do substrato S2, apresentaram potencial de uso para o cultivo do tomateiro em ambiente protegido.

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Dentre os materiais de construção utilizados nas instalações rurais, merecem destaque as coberturas, pois são grandes responsáveis pelo conforto térmico, influenciando no balanço térmico no interior das instalações. Este trabalho objetivou avaliar a influência das coberturas sobre a entalpia (H), Carga Térmica Radiante (CTR) e no Índice de Temperatura de Globo Negro e Umidade (ITGU), em abrigos individuais para bezerros leiteiros. O delineamento foi o inteiramente casualizado com três tratamentos: Z - telha de zinco; CA - telha de cimento amianto, e CAB - telha de cimento amianto pintada de branco na face superior. As médias foram comparadas pelo teste de Scott Knott, a 1% de probabilidade. Os resultados mostraram que não houve diferença estatística entre os tratamentos (P<0,01) e o ambiente externo, para a H. Para a CTR, houve diferença estatística entre todos os tratamentos, em que CAB demonstrou menor CTR, 489,28 W m-², seguido do tratamento CA, 506,72 W m-², e Z com maior valor de CTR, 523,55 W m-². Para o ITGU, observaram-se menores valores para CAB (76,8) e CA (77,4), diferindo-se, significativamente do Z, que obteve maior valor (81,6). As telhas com pintura branca em sua face superior promoveram menor CTR e menor ITGU, favorecendo o ambiente térmico da instalação.

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The aim of this thesis is to evaluate the quality of public spending on education for the municipalities of the Metropolitan Region of Natal (RMN) in 2009 by use of two theories: The Theory of Welfare (Welfare State) and the Public Choice Theory (TEP), both important to understand the relationship between education and economics. The study also uses principles of microeconomics and public sector economics to get a better idea of the role of education in economy and society. It describes the development of the educational policy in Brazil from 1988 to the Federal Constitution of 2010, following the major changes in basic education during each government. The characteristics of the RMN municipalities were illustrated with socioeconomic indicators, while educational indicators were used to characterize each municipality regarding education. The model used in this study was developed by Bertê, Brunet and Borges, the data was collected on the back of the School Census 2009 and the Brazil Exam 2009 and it was processed quantitavely in the Information System on Public Budgets in Education (SIOPE) by use of the statistical method called standardized score of the normal cumulative distribution function. The quality of public spending on education is the result of the relation between performance indicator ratio and expense ratio. For the qualitative analysis of results, the criteria of efficiency, efficacy and effectiveness were used. The study found that municipalities with higher expenses showed a worse quality of spending and failed to convert the expenditure incurred into performance, thus confirming ineffectiveness

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Family farming has been considered as the new axis of rural development in the country, the focus of several public policies, especially the National Program for Strengthening Family Agriculture - PRONAF and Food Purchase Program - PAA. PRONAF was created with the aim of providing credit to farmers, while the PAA to support family farmers through the purchase of its production. In this context, the objective of this study is to analyze the correspondence of these two public policies for family farming, in the Territories of Citizenship of the state of Rio Grande do Norte, between the years 2008 to 2010. In the methodology, the analysis was performed by comparing the distributions of the two programs in the territories of citizenship status. There were also statistical tests of differences in proportions, and Spearman correlations, and estimated a logit regression model, in order to measure the probability of a farmer participating in the PAA is associated with one of the modes of PRONAF. The data used were obtained from the National and Supply - CONAB at the Institute of Technical Assistance and Rural Extension - EMATER, and the Ministry of Agrarian Development - MDA. Among the key findings was noted that policies were associated with a direct, but low in the districts of the Territories of Citizenship. And that, in the years 2008 and 2009, only in the territories of Mato Grande, Alto Oeste and Seridó, the actions of PAA and PRONAF had direct and significant correlations. It was found that in most of the territories, policies are performed randomly, ie that both have no correlation to each other. The estimates of the logit model showed that the chance of a family farmer, the PAA participant, receive credits PRONAF A, is higher in the territory of Mato Grande, and would have a chance to fall in PRONAF B in all areas surveyed. Moreover, farmers in the territories of the Assu-Mossoró, Sertão of Apodi, Seridó and Alto Oeste, participating in the PAA would be more likely to receive credits PRONAF C, reflecting thus the family farm more consolidated these territories

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This study aims to the evaluate the determinants for rural households northeastern be pluriactive, in 2011. For this, at first, we conducted a review of national and international literature in order to get beyond the theoretical part which refers to the study of pluriactivity identify possible determinants of the phenomenon. In this rescue, it was the observed determinants could be macroeconomic in nature and / or microeconomics. Therefore, it became necessary to describe the characteristics of the region under study, the Northeast. In order to identify the determinants were two estimated Probit models, one based on the literature review and the second with a variable characteristic of the Northeast, the transfers. For this, we used the PNAD in 2011. The results indicate both the microeconomic determinants are : gender, race, age, years of education, hours worked, number of family members, per capita income, transfer the macroeconomic in nature: living conditions (water, energy, sanitation ), housing location. In addition to identifying the determinants, the Econometric model allows to know the probability of each variable on the dependent variable, which stood out: the transfer variable, gender, per capita income, number of family members, housing conditions and housing location. Therefore, it is concluded that it is the set of determinants (macro and micro) allow rural families become northeastern pluriactive. However, one can not fail to consider may also have other determinants were not captured due to the availability of data, which may be indications for future studies. In summary, the pluriactivity in the Brazilian Northeast is a phenomenon distinct from found in Europe and southern Brazil. It is a pluriactivity survival that is part of the strategies of rural households in the Northeast to ensure their social reproduction amid the poverty of the region

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The consumption of exotic fruits has been showing accentuated increase and the cultivated area is in expansion, generating demand for adequate culturing techniques. The Malay apple (Syzygium malaccense), with probable origin in India, has a fruit widely known and appreciated in the North and Northeasthern Brazilian states. The Malay apple tree is extremely tall and has a long juvenile period when propagated by seed, making its vegetative multiplication is desirable, to anticipate the productive period and decrease its size, and also to obtain uniform orchards. The experiment was conducted at UNESP/FCAV, Jaboticabal Campus, using Malay apple herbaceous cuttings subjected to treatments with indol butyric acid (IBA) (0; 1,000; 3,000 and 5,000 mgL(-1)) and cuttings with and without basal incision. The variables analyzed were percentage of survival and rooting of the cuttings, number and mean length of roots per cutting. The experiment was conducted under CRB on a factorial scheme (4 X 2) with 4 replicates constituted by 10 cuttings each. Data were analyzed by Tukey's mean test at 5% probability. The vegetative propagation by rooting of herbaceous cuttings of the Malay apple is possible, however, both IBA treatments and basal incision have not shown significant effect on the analyzed variables.

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O presente trabalho teve como objetivo, quantificar a resistência à Phakopsora pachyrhizi em 50 genótipos de soja na região do cerrado. Foi conduzido em Uberlândia, MG , um experimento em casa de vegetação, durante o período de janeiro a julho de 2004. Foram avaliados os seguintes parâmetros de resistência: período latente médio, número médio de pústulas por cm² e severidade da ferrugem. Com base nesses parâmetros, calculou-se a área abaixo da curva de progresso da doença. Após, análise de variância e teste de médias que foram comparadas pelo teste de Duncan ao nível de 5% de probabilidade, utilizando-se o software ESTAT. Foram encontradas diferenças significativas entre os genótipos de soja para os parâmetros estudados. As cultivares Emgopa 313 e Monsoy 8211 apresentaram menor período latente médio, menor número de pústulas, severidade e área abaixo da curva do progresso da doença, sendo classificadas como resistentes ao patógeno no experimento realizado.

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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O objetivo deste trabalho foi estabelecer o modelo mais adequado para avaliação genética de bovinos Canchim e estimar os parâmetros genéticos de características produtivas à desmama. Foram utilizados dados de: 12.103 animais, quanto ao peso (PD); 5.278, quanto ao perímetro escrotal (PE); 8.343, quanto ao escore visual da conformação frigorífica (CF); 9.111, quanto ao escore de umbigo (UM); e 7.986, quanto ao escore de pelame (PEL). Os modelos estatísticos incluíram os efeitos fixos e os efeitos aleatórios genéticos aditivos direto, materno e de ambiente permanente materno, em diferentes combinações. As análises foram feitas pelo método da máxima verossimilhança restrita livre de derivadas. O modelo completo foi o mais adequado para PD, PE, CF e UM, enquanto o modelo com uso apenas dos efeitos genéticos aditivos direto e materno foi o mais adequado para PEL. As estimativas de herdabilidade direta foram 0,17, 0,13, 0,20, 0,18, e 0,52 para PD, PE, CF, UM e PEL, respectivamente, o que indica a possibilidade de se obter progresso genético por meio da seleção para essas características, principalmente para PEL. As correlações genéticas aditivas diretas entre as características variaram de -0,16 a 0,61. As correlações entre PD e PE e entre PD e CF indicam que a seleção para PD deve proporcionar ganho genético em PE e CF

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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

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A descriptive and exploratory Study, quantitative in nature, with the aim to assess the Quality of Life (QL) of the elderly leaving in a Long Residence Institution (LRI) according to their own perception. It was conducted in six Public Institutions of Long Residence for Seniors, in the municipality of Natal - RN, in the period of July to August 2007. The data was collected using two structured interview forms: the first, containing questions about socio-demographic aspects and the second - the WHOQUOL-OLD, prepared by the World Health Organization to assess elderly s quality of life. The reference population was 266 old persons, and a random sample, of 43, being 28 women and 15 men, who account for 30%. The results indicated there is a predominance of older women (65.1%) and the average age is 76.6 years; the predominant religion is the Catholic - 44.2% and, 32.6% are unmarried without children. As for schooling and precedence, 41.9% are illiterate and 67.4% come from the rural area. The time of residency in the institution goes between 1 to 5 years for 69.8% of the elderly, 37.2% of them residing in the institution for not having another option. Most elderly informed using medicines. 51.3% said they are taking anti-hypertensive. As for the other aspects of QL: sensory aspects, autonomy, past, present and future activities, social participation, death and dying and intimacy, the WHOQOL-OLD, showed an average total score of 52.9% (scale of 0 to 100), with a tendency to neutrality, denoting that the elderly, in this study, evaluated their QL as neither satisfactory or unsatisfactory. Of all the facets of the instrument of QL, the sensory facet secured the highest average scores (68,1%), showing that the elderly are "happy" in the situation in which they find themselves, not showing significant disabilities. The facet of autonomy, which refers to the independence and the ability to make decisions on their own life, received the lowest average scores (40.7%), showing the dissatisfaction of the elderly on this aspect. The evaluation of the elderly on other facets were: social participation (48.2%); activities past, present and future (44.6%) and intimacy (50.6%), all perceived as neither unsatisfactory or satisfactory. On the item death and dying, the elderly people declared themselves satisfied, with average score of 65.5%. The analysis of the reliability of the WHOQOL-OLD by the Cronbach Alpha showed 0.57, considering the 24 items that cover the instrument, showing regular internal reliability of the instrument, in our reality. The result is probably due to differences between the regions south and east and the broader sociocultural diversity. We believe that the elderly in this study, tended to realize their QL as neutral, considering it as neither unsatisfactory or satisfactory, result likely related to the resignation with the destine, characterized, at the time, by the finitude of life, feeling very common among elderly, or perhaps, even for an accommodation, often accompanied by discouragement, present in the daily life of many of them

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Este trabalho teve por objetivo verificar o uso do teste de condutividade elétrica para avaliar a qualidade fisiológica de sementes de Albizia hassleri (Chod) Burkart. provenientes de diferentes matrizes. O teste de condutividade elétrica foi realizado a 25 ºC, com cinco repetições de 20 sementes embebidas em 75 mL de água destilada por 2, 4, 6, 12, 24, 48, 72, 96 e 120 h. O teste de germinação foi conduzido a 25 ºC com cinco repetições de 20 sementes por 19 dias. Os dados foram submetidos à análise de variância e as médias de matrizes, comparadas pelo teste de Scott-Knott a 5% de probabilidade. Adicionalmente, procedeuse ao estudo de correlações entre os resultados de condutividade elétrica com os do teste de germinação e ao ajuste de regressões entre os valores de sementes com protrusão de radícula e de plântulas normais em função dos valores de condutividade elétrica, em cada período de embebição das sementes. Verificou-se grande variabilidade entre as matrizes, tanto no teste de germinação quanto no de condutividade elétrica. Os resultados de condutividade elétrica apontaram baixas estimativas de correlações com os obtidos no teste de germinação. As equações de regressão apresentaram baixos valores de coeficiente de determinação, denotando-se a grande variabilidade dos resultados. Pode-se concluir que o teste de condutividade elétrica não foi adequado para discriminação da qualidade fisiológica de sementes de A. hasslerii provenientes de diferentes árvores-matriz.