Time-series regression models to study the short-term effects of environmental factors on health

Time series regression models are especially suitable in epidemiology for evaluating short-term effects of time-varying exposures on health. The problem is that potential for confounding in time series regression is very high. Thus, it is important that trend and seasonality are properly accounted for. Our paper reviews the statistical models commonly used in time-series regression methods, specially allowing for serial correlation, make them potentially useful for selected epidemiological purposes. In particular, we discuss the use of time-series regression for counts using a wide range Generalised Linear Models as well as Generalised Additive Models. In addition, recently critical points in using statistical software for GAM were stressed, and reanalyses of time series data on air pollution and health were performed in order to update already published. Applications are offered through an example on the relationship between asthma emergency admissions and photochemical air pollutants

Bacterial biosensors for measuring availability of environmental pollutants

Abstract: Traditionally, pollution risk assessment is based on the measurement of a pollutant's total concentration in a sample. The toxicity of a given pollutant in the environment, however, is tightly linked to its bioavailability, which may differ significantly from the total amount. Physico-chemical and biological parameters strongly influence pollutant fate in terms of leaching, sequestration and biodegradation. Bacterial sensorreporters, which consist of living micro-organisms genetically engineered to produce specific output in response to target chemicals, offer an interesting alternative to monitoring approaches. Bacterial sensor-reporters detect bioavailable and/or bioaccessible compound fractions in samples. Currently, a variety of environmental pollutants can be targeted by specific biosensor-reporters. Although most of such strains are still confined to the lab, several recent reports have demonstrated utility of bacterial sensing-reporting in the field, with method detection limits in the nanomolar range. This review illustrates the general design principles for bacterial sensor-reporters, presents an overview of the existing biosensor-reporter strains with emphasis on organic compound detection. A specific focus throughout is on the concepts of bioavailability and bioaccessibility, and how bacteria-based sensing-reporting systems can help to improve our basic understanding of the different processes at work.

Wild Triatoma infestans, a potential threat that needs to be monitored

The current persistence of Triatoma infestans, and therefore of Chagas disease transmission, in the Andean valleys of Bolivia and the Gran Chaco (precisely where wild populations of the vector are widespread), indicates a possible relationship between these two occurrences. This paper provides an overview of the current knowledge regarding wild T. infestans in Bolivia. The different morphs of the wild vector, their known distributions and some traits of their biology and ecology are presented. Particularly interesting is the considerable behavioural and chromatic plasticity that is displayed by wild T. infestans. According to the biogeographic region, different morphs of the vector occur in rupicolous habitats (common form and Mataral morph in Andean wild T. infestans) or arboreal ones ("dark morph" populations from the Chaco). The high genetic variability found at the microgeographical scale in Andean wild T. infestans favours the hypothesis that the Andes were the centre of origin and dispersal of T. infestans throughout South America. The relevant question regarding the origin of domestic populations is also addressed. Finally, current considerations of the epidemiological significance of wild T. infestans are discussed in the context of recent discoveries. Even if several observations support the epidemiological risk represented by wild T. infestans, the climatic and environmental conditions of their distribution areas would not favour the continued flow of triatomines between sylvatic refuges and domestic environments.

Occurrence and composition of class 1 and class 2 integrons in clinical and environmental O1 and non-O1/non-O139 Vibrio cholerae strains from the Brazilian Amazon

This study identified and characterised class 1 and 2 integrons in clinical and environmental Vibrio cholerae O1 and non-O1/non-O139 strains isolated from the Brazilian Amazon. The aadA2 and aadA7 gene cassettes were found in class 1 integrons in two genotypes of environmental V. cholerae non-O1/non-O139. Empty integrons were found in strains from the Brazilian cholera epidemic. A class 2 integron was detected in one strain from the V. cholerae Amazonia lineage harbouring sat1 and aadA1 genes. All isolates were resistant to aminoglycosides, indicating aadA functionality. These findings suggest that environmental bacteria act as cassette reservoirs that favour the emergence of resistant pathogens.

A framework for assessing the scale of influence of environmental factors on ecological patterns

The distribution of living organisms, habitats and ecosystems is primarily driven by abiotic environmental factors that are spatially structured. Assessing the spatial structure of environmental factors, e.g., through spatial autocorrelation analyses (SAC), can thus help us understand their scale of influence on the distribution of organisms, habitats, and ecosystems. Yet SAC analyses of environmental factors are still rarely performed in biogeographic studies. Here, we describe a novel framework that combines SAC and statistical clustering to identify scales of spatial patterning of environmental factors, which can then be interpreted as the scales at which those factors influence the geographic distribution of biological and ecological features. We illustrate this new framework with datasets at different spatial or thematic resolutions. This framework is conceptually and statistically robust, providing a valuable approach to tackle a wide range of issues in ecological and environmental research and particularly when building predictors for ecological models. The new framework can significantly promote fundamental research on all spatially-structured ecological patterns. It can also foster research and application in such fields as global change ecology, conservation planning, and landscape management.

Multiplex PCR-based detection of Leptospira in environmental water samples obtained from a slum settlement

The aim of this study was to apply a molecular protocol to detect leptospiral DNA in environmental water samples. The study was carried out in a peri-urban settlement in Petrópolis, state of Rio de Janeiro. A multiplex PCR method employing the primers LipL32 and 16SrRNA was used. Three out of 100 analysed samples were positive in the multiplex PCR, two were considered to have saprophytic leptospires and one had pathogenic leptospires. The results obtained supported the idea that multiplex PCR can be used to detect Leptospira spp in water samples. This method was also able to differentiate between saprophytic and pathogenic leptospires and was able to do so much more easily than conventional methodologies.

Cryptococcus neoformans var. grubii - Pathogenicity of environmental isolates correlated to virulence factors, susceptibility to fluconazole and molecular profile

The pathogenicity of Cryptococcus neoformans is heterogeneous and is associated with the expression of virulence factors. This study aimed to correlate the pathogenicity of C. neoformans var. grubii in BALB/c mice with in vitro virulence factors, fluconazole minimal inhibitory concentrations (MICs) and molecular profiles, before and after animal passage. Ten environmental isolates and one ATCC strain of C. neoformans var. grubii mating type α were evaluated. Most isolates (91%) killed 50% or more of the infected animals by day 24 postinfection and were recovered from the lungs and brains of surviving animals on days 7 and 14 postinfection. The burden of yeast in the lungs was more variable than that in the brain. The differences in the expression of virulence factors (growth at 37ºC, presence and size of the capsule and production of melanin, urease, proteinase and phospholipase) by most isolates pre and postpassage in animals were not statistically significant. The fluconazole MICs in postpassaged lines differed by a one-dilution from the MIC of the corresponding prepassaged line for six isolates. Using molecular typing [polymerase chain reaction-fingerprinting with (GACA)4 and M13], eight isolates were identified as VNI and three as VNII. We concluded that different isolates with the same molecular and phenotypic profiles, including isolates that are markedly hypervirulent, span a wide range of virulence and there were no changes in virulence factors in the postpassaged lines when compared with the corresponding nonpassaged lines.

Regulation of free corticosterone and CBG capacity under different environmental conditions in altricial nestlings.

The concentration of circulating glucocorticoids is regulated in response to environmental and endogenous conditions. Total circulating corticosterone, the main glucocorticoid in birds, consists of a fraction which is bound to corticosterone-binding globulins (CBG) and a free fraction. There is increasing evidence that the environment modulates free corticosterone levels through varying the concentration of CBG, but experimental evidence is lacking. To test the hypothesis that the regulation of chronic stress in response to endogenous and environmental conditions involves variation in both corticosterone release and CBG capacity, we performed an experiment with barn owl (Tyto alba) nestlings in two different years with pronounced differences in environmental conditions and in nestlings experimentally fed ad libitum. In half of the individuals we implanted a corticosterone-releasing pellet to artificially increase corticosterone levels and in the other half we implanted a placebo pellet. We then repeatedly collected blood samples to measure the change in total and free corticosterone levels as well as CBG capacity. The increase in circulating total corticosterone after artificial corticosterone administration varied with environmental conditions and with the food regime of the nestlings. The highest total corticosterone levels were found in nestlings growing up in poor environmental conditions and the lowest in ad libitum fed nestlings. CBG was highest in the year with poor environmental conditions, so that, contrary to total corticosterone, free corticosterone levels were low under poor environmental conditions. When nestlings were fed ad libitum total corticosterone, CBG and free corticosterone did not increase when administering corticosterone. These results suggest that depending on the individual history an animal experienced during development the HPA-axis is regulated differently.

Influence of environmental conditions on the distribution of Central Asian green toads with three ploidy levels.

We studied the distribution of Palearctic green toads (Bufo viridis subgroup), an anuran species group with three ploidy levels, inhabiting the Central Asian Amudarya River drainage. Various approaches (one-way, multivariate, components variance analyses and maximum entropy modelling) were used to estimate the effect of altitude, precipitation, temperature and land vegetation covers on the distribution of toads. It is usually assumed that polyploid species occur in regions with harsher climatic conditions (higher latitudes, elevations, etc.), but for the green toads complex, we revealed a more intricate situation. The diploid species (Bufo shaartusiensis and Bufo turanensis) inhabit the arid lowlands (from 44 to 789 m a.s.l.), while tetraploid Bufo pewzowi were recorded in mountainous regions (340-3492 m a.s.l.) with usually lower temperatures and higher precipitation rates than in the region inhabited by diploid species. The triploid species Bufo baturae was found in the Pamirs (Tajikistan) at the highest altitudes (2503-3859 m a.s.l.) under the harshest climatic conditions.

Predicting spatial patterns of plant biodiversity : from species to communities

Understanding the distribution and composition of species assemblages and being able to predict them in space and time are highly important tasks io investigate the fate of biodiversity in the current global changes context. Species distribution models are tools that have proven useful to predict the potential distribution of species by relating their occurrences to environmental variables. Species assemblages can then be predicted by combining the prediction of individual species models. In the first part of my thesis, I tested the importance of new environmental predictors to improve species distribution prediction. I showed that edaphic variables, above all soil pH and nitrogen content could be important in species distribution models. In a second chapter, I tested the influence of different resolution of predictors on the predictive ability of species distribution models. I showed that fine resolution predictors could ameliorate the models for some species by giving a better estimation of the micro-topographic condition that species tolerate, but that fine resolution predictors for climatic factors still need to be ameliorated. The second goal of my thesis was to test the ability of empirical models to predict species assemblages' characteristics such as species richness or functional attributes. I showed that species richness could be modelled efficiently and that the resulting prediction gave a more realistic estimate of the number of species than when obtaining it by stacking outputs of single species distribution models. Regarding the prediction of functional characteristics (plant height, leaf surface, seed mass) of plant assemblages, mean and extreme values of functional traits were better predictable than indices reflecting the diversity of traits in the community. This approach proved interesting to understand which environmental conditions influence particular aspects of the vegetation functioning. It could also be useful to predict climate change impacts on the vegetation. In the last part of my thesis, I studied the capacity of stacked species distribution models to predict the plant assemblages. I showed that this method tended to over-predict the number of species and that the composition of the community was not predicted exactly either. Finally, I combined the results of macro- ecological models obtained in the preceding chapters with stacked species distribution models and showed that this approach reduced significantly the number of species predicted and that the prediction of the composition is also ameliorated in some cases. These results showed that this method is promising. It needs now to be tested on further data sets. - Comprendre la manière dont les plantes se répartissent dans l'environnement et s'organisent en communauté est une question primordiale dans le contexte actuel de changements globaux. Cette connaissance peut nous aider à sauvegarder la diversité des espèces et les écosystèmes. Des méthodes statistiques nous permettent de prédire la distribution des espèces de plantes dans l'espace géographique et dans le temps. Ces modèles de distribution d'espèces, relient les occurrences d'une espèce avec des variables environnementales pour décrire sa distribution potentielle. Cette méthode a fait ses preuves pour ce qui est de la prédiction d'espèces individuelles. Plus récemment plusieurs tentatives de cumul de modèles d'espèces individuelles ont été réalisées afin de prédire la composition des communautés végétales. Le premier objectif de mon travail est d'améliorer les modèles de distribution en testant l'importance de nouvelles variables prédictives. Parmi différentes variables édaphiques, le pH et la teneur en azote du sol se sont avérés des facteurs non négligeables pour prédire la distribution des plantes. Je démontre aussi dans un second chapitre que les prédicteurs environnementaux à fine résolution permettent de refléter les conditions micro-topographiques subies par les plantes mais qu'ils doivent encore être améliorés avant de pouvoir être employés de manière efficace dans les modèles. Le deuxième objectif de ce travail consistait à étudier le développement de modèles prédictifs pour des attributs des communautés végétales tels que, par exemple, la richesse en espèces rencontrée à chaque point. Je démontre qu'il est possible de prédire par ce biais des valeurs de richesse spécifiques plus réalistes qu'en sommant les prédictions obtenues précédemment pour des espèces individuelles. J'ai également prédit dans l'espace et dans le temps des caractéristiques de la végétation telles que sa hauteur moyenne, minimale et maximale. Cette approche peut être utile pour comprendre quels facteurs environnementaux promeuvent différents types de végétation ainsi que pour évaluer les changements à attendre au niveau de la végétation dans le futur sous différents régimes de changements climatiques. Dans une troisième partie de ma thèse, j'ai exploré la possibilité de prédire les assemblages de plantes premièrement en cumulant les prédictions obtenues à partir de modèles individuels pour chaque espèce. Cette méthode a le défaut de prédire trop d'espèces par rapport à ce qui est observé en réalité. J'ai finalement employé le modèle de richesse en espèce développé précédemment pour contraindre les résultats du modèle d'assemblage de plantes. Cela a permis l'amélioration des modèles en réduisant la sur-prédiction et en améliorant la prédiction de la composition en espèces. Cette méthode semble prometteuse mais de nouveaux tests sont nécessaires pour bien évaluer ses capacités.