A tomada de decisão dos sujeitos em projetos organizacionais e em seu cotidiano pessoal: um estudo no contexto de diferentes nacionalidades

Este trabalho tem por objetivo estudar a tomada de decisão dos indivíduos de diferentes nacionalidades, que atuam na gestão de projetos organizacionais, em sua vida fora do âmbito profissional. Dado que as metodologias existentes na área de gestão de projetos atentam para a necessidade de um processo decisório racional, lógico e objetivo, este estudo pretende explorar até que ponto os sujeitos organizacionais extrapolam este mesmo processo decisório linear, advindo do mundo profissional, para o seu cotidiano. Os estudos acadêmicos ao longo dos anos trataram de discutir esta temática da decisão racional, linear e lógica, os quais foram capazes de refutar esta hipótese com novas perspectivas para o julgamento cognitivo dos humanos. Portanto, além deste trabalho apresentar o campo de estudo da gerência de projetos e seus conceitos, ele também aborda as diversas evoluções teóricas acerca da tomada de decisão ao longo do tempo. A partir da consideração do caráter subjetivo nas teorias de decisão apresentadas, e a limitação cognitiva que muitas vezes se impõe, este estudo busca então explorar as diferentes heurísticas (estratégias simplificadoras, atalhos mentais) de julgamento e seus respectivos vieses cognitivos. As três principais meta-heurísticas, expostas por Tversky e Kahneman em seu trabalho acadêmico de 1974 e também foco deste estudo são, respectivamente: da representatividade, da disponibilidade e da ancoragem e ajustamento. Neste trabalho é realizada uma pesquisa quantitativa com sujeitos organizacionais que trabalham com gestão de projetos, ou que tiveram alguma experiência em algum projeto nas empresas em que trabalham. Ressalta-se que este estudo não se limita ao Brasil, extendendo-se também a outros países com o mesmo público-alvo de pesquisa. Os resultados da pesquisa revelaram que os profissionais que atuam em gestão de projetos estão sujeitos a vieses cognitivos fora do âmbito organizacional, sendo que os brasileiros são os menos propensos a estes vieses, em comparação com as demais nacionalidades estudadas. Também revelou-se que o tempo de experiência profissional não contribui de modo significante para uma tomada de decisão mais racional e lógica no cotidiano pessoal.

Estudo e sistematização estatística e quimiométrica na determinação de hidrocarbonetos policíclicos aromáticos (HPAs) por HPLC-Flu

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Modelo de previsão de priorização de peça de reposição

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Path Dependence in Decision-Making Processes: Exploring the Impact of Complexity under Increasing Returns

The development of path-dependent processes basically refers to positive feedback in terms of increasing returns as the main driving forces of such processes. Furthermore, path dependence can be affected by context factors, such as different degrees of complexity. Up to now, it has been unclear whether and how different settings of complexity impact path-dependent processes and the probability of lock-in. In this paper we investigate the relationship between environmental complexity and path dependence by means of an experimental study. By focusing on the mode of information load and decision quality in chronological sequences, the study explores the impact of complexity on decision-making processes. The results contribute to both the development of path-dependence theory and a better understanding of decision-making behavior under conditions of positive feedback. Since previous path research has mostly applied qualitative case-study research and (to a minor part) simulations, this paper makes a further contribution by establishing an experimental approach for research on path dependence.

GRASP with Hybrid Path Relinking for Bi-Objective Winner Determination in Combinatorial Transportation Auctions

The procurement of transportation services via large-scale combinatorial auctions involves a couple of complex decisions whose outcome highly influences the performance of the tender process. This paper examines the shipper's task of selecting a subset of the submitted bids which efficiently trades off total procurement cost against expected carrier performance. To solve this bi-objective winner determination problem, we propose a Pareto-based greedy randomized adaptive search procedure (GRASP). As a post-optimizer we use a path relinking procedure which is hybridized with branch-and-bound. Several variants of this algorithm are evaluated by means of artificial test instances which comply with important real-world characteristics. The two best variants prove superior to a previously published Pareto-based evolutionary algorithm.

Applying the fuzzy analytical hierarchy process in digital marketing

The fuzzy analytical network process (FANP) is introduced as a potential multi-criteria-decision-making (MCDM) method to improve digital marketing management endeavors. Today’s information overload makes digital marketing optimization, which is needed to continuously improve one’s business, increasingly difficult. The proposed FANP framework is a method for enhancing the interaction between customers and marketers (i.e., involved stakeholders) and thus for reducing the challenges of big data. The presented implementation takes realities’ fuzziness into account to manage the constant interaction and continuous development of communication between marketers and customers on the Web. Using this FANP framework, the marketers are able to increasingly meet the varying requirements of their customers. To improve the understanding of the implementation, advanced visualization methods (e.g., wireframes) are used.

Continuous multi-criteria methods for crop and soil conservation planning on La Colacha (Río Cuarto, Province of Cordoba, Argentina)

Agro-areas of Arroyos Menores (La Colacha) west and south of Rand south of R?o Cuarto (Prov. of Cordoba, Argentina) basins are very fertile but have high soil loses. Extreme rain events, inundations and other severe erosions forming gullies demand urgently actions in this area to avoid soil degradation and erosion supporting good levels of agro production. The authors first improved hydrologic data on La Colacha, evaluated the systems of soil uses and actions that could be recommended considering the relevant aspects of the study area and applied decision support systems (DSS) with mathematic tools for planning of defences and uses of soils in these areas. These were conducted here using multi-criteria models, in multi-criteria decision making (MCDM); first of discrete MCDM to chose among global types of use of soils, and then of continuous MCDM to evaluate and optimize combined actions, including repartition of soil use and the necessary levels of works for soil conservation and for hydraulic management to conserve against erosion these basins. Relatively global solutions for La Colacha area have been defined and were optimised by Linear Programming in Goal Programming forms that are presented as Weighted or Lexicographic Goal Programming and as Compromise Programming. The decision methods used are described, indicating algorithms used, and examples for some representative scenarios on La Colacha area are given.

Dominance intensity methods for ranking of alternatives in mcdm with imprecise information

Los decisores cada vez se enfrentan a problemas más complejos en los que tomar una decisión implica tener que considerar simultáneamente muchos criterios que normalmente son conflictivos entre sí. En la mayoría de los problemas de decisión es necesario considerar criterios económicos, sociales y medioambientales. La Teoría de la Decisión proporciona el marco adecuado para poder ayudar a los decisores a resolver estos problemas de decisión complejos, al permitir considerar conjuntamente la incertidumbre existente sobre las consecuencias de cada alternativa en los diferentes atributos y la imprecisión sobre las preferencias de los decisores. En esta tesis doctoral nos centramos en la imprecisión de las preferencias de los decisores cuando éstas pueden ser representadas mediante una función de utilidad multiatributo aditiva. Por lo tanto, consideramos imprecisión tanto en los pesos como en las funciones de utilidad componentes de cada atributo. Se ha considerado el caso en que la imprecisión puede ser representada por intervalos de valores o bien mediante información ordinal, en lugar de proporcionar valores concretos. En este sentido, hemos propuesto métodos que permiten ordenar las diferentes alternativas basados en los conceptos de intensidad de dominación o intensidad de preferencia, los cuales intentan medir la fuerza con la que cada alternativa es preferida al resto. Para todos los métodos propuestos se ha analizado su comportamiento y se ha comparado con los más relevantes existentes en la literatura científica que pueden ser aplicados para resolver este tipo de problemas. Para ello, se ha realizado un estudio de simulación en el que se han usado dos medidas de eficiencia (hit ratio y coeficiente de correlación de Kendall) para comparar los diferentes métodos. ABSTRACT Decision makers increasingly face complex decision-making problems where they have to simultaneously consider many often conflicting criteria. In most decision-making problems it is necessary to consider economic, social and environmental criteria. Decision making theory provides an adequate framework for helping decision makers to make complex decisions where they can jointly consider the uncertainty about the performance of each alternative for each attribute, and the imprecision of the decision maker's preferences. In this PhD thesis we focus on the imprecision of the decision maker's preferences represented by an additive multiattribute utility function. Therefore, we consider the imprecision of weights, as well as of component utility functions for each attribute. We consider the case in which the imprecision is represented by ranges of values or by ordinal information rather than precise values. In this respect, we propose methods for ranking alternatives based on notions of dominance intensity, also known as preference intensity, which attempt to measure how much more preferred each alternative is to the others. The performance of the propose methods has been analyzed and compared against the leading existing methods that are applicable to this type of problem. For this purpose, we conducted a simulation study using two efficiency measures (hit ratio and Kendall correlation coefficient) to compare the different methods.

Analytic hierarchy process helps evaluate projects in Indian oil pipeline industry

Conventionally, oil pipeline projects are evaluated thoroughly by the owner before investment decision is made using market, technical and financial analysis sequentially. The market analysis determines pipelines throughput and supply and demand points. Subsequent, technical analysis identifies technological options and economic and financial analysis then derives the least cost option among all technically feasible options. The subsequent impact assessment tries to justify the selected option by addressing environmental and social issues. The impact assessment often suggests alternative sites, technologies, and/or implementation methodology, necessitating revision of technical and financial analysis. This study addresses these issues via an integrated project evaluation and selection model. The model uses analytic hierarchy process, a multiple-attribute decision-making technique. The effectiveness of the model has been demonstrated through a case application on cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India.

Performance measurement of intensive care services in hospitals:The case of Barbados

The Intensive Care Unit (ICU) being one of those vital areas of a hospital providing clinical care, the quality of service rendered must be monitored and measured quantitatively. It is, therefore, essential to know the performance of an ICU, in order to identify any deficits and enable the service providers to improve the quality of service. Although there have been many attempts to do this with the help of illness severity scoring systems, the relative lack of success using these methods has led to the search for a form of measurement, which would encompass all the different aspects of an ICU in a holistic manner. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multiple-attribute, decision-making technique is utilised in this study to evolve a system to measure the performance of ICU services reliably. This tool has been applied to a surgical ICU in Barbados; we recommend AHP as a valuable tool to quantify the performance of an ICU. Copyright © 2004 Inderscience Enterprises Ltd.

Decision support system for project selection

The evaluation and selection of industrial projects before investment decision is customarily done using marketing, technical, and financial information. Subsequently, environmental impact assessment and social impact assessment are carried out mainly to satisfy the statutory agencies. Because of stricter environment regulations in developed and developing countries, quite often impact assessment suggests alternate sites, technologies, designs, and implementation methods as mitigating measures. This causes considerable delay to complete project feasibility analysis and selection as complete analysis requires to be taken up again and again until the statutory regulatory authority approves the project. Moreover, project analysis through the above process often results in suboptimal projects as financial analysis may eliminate better options as more environment friendly alternative will always be cost intensive. In this circumstance, this study proposes a decision support system which analyses projects with respect to market, technicalities, and social and environmental impact in an integrated framework using analytic hierarchy process, a multiple attribute decision-making technique. This not only reduces duration of project evaluation and selection, but also helps select an optimal project for the organization for sustainable development. The entire methodology has been applied to a cross-country oil pipeline project in India and its effectiveness has been demonstrated. © 2008, IGI Global.

Multiple attribute decision making approach to petroleum pipeline route selection

Petroleum pipelines are the nervous system of the oil industry, as this transports crude oil from sources to refineries and petroleum products from refineries to demand points. Therefore, the efficient operation of these pipelines determines the effectiveness of the entire business. Pipeline route selection plays a major role when designing an effective pipeline system, as the health of the pipeline depends on its terrain. The present practice of route selection for petroleum pipelines is governed by factors such as the shortest distance, constructability, minimal effects on the environment, and approachability. Although this reduces capital expenditure, it often proves to be uneconomical when life cycle costing is considered. This study presents a route selection model with the application of an Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision making technique. AHP considers all the above factors along with the operability and maintainability factors interactively. This system has been demonstrated here through a case study of pipeline route selection, from an Indian perspective. A cost-benefit comparison of the shortest route (conventionally selected) and optimal route establishes the effectiveness of the model.

Solar thermal collectors for use in hybrid solar-biomass power plants in India

This thesis examined solar thermal collectors for use in alternative hybrid solar-biomass power plant applications in Gujarat, India. Following a preliminary review, the cost-effective selection and design of the solar thermal field were identified as critical factors underlying the success of hybrid plants. Consequently, the existing solar thermal technologies were reviewed and ranked for use in India by means of a multi-criteria decision-making method, the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). Informed by the outcome of the AHP, the thesis went on to pursue the Linear Fresnel Reflector (LFR), the design of which was optimised with the help of ray-tracing. To further enhance collector performance, LFR concepts incorporating novel mirror spacing and drive mechanisms were evaluated. Subsequently, a new variant, termed the Elevation Linear Fresnel Reflector (ELFR) was designed, constructed and tested at Aston University, UK, therefore allowing theoretical models for the performance of a solar thermal field to be verified. Based on the resulting characteristics of the LFR, and data gathered for the other hybrid system components, models of hybrid LFR- and ELFR-biomass power plants were developed and analysed in TRNSYS®. The techno-economic and environmental consequences of varying the size of the solar field in relation to the total plant capacity were modelled for a series of case studies to evaluate different applications: tri-generation (electricity, ice and heat), electricity-only generation, and process heat. The case studies also encompassed varying site locations, capacities, operational conditions and financial situations. In the case of a hybrid tri-generation plant in Gujarat, it was recommended to use an LFR solar thermal field of 14,000 m2 aperture with a 3 tonne biomass boiler, generating 815 MWh per annum of electricity for nearby villages and 12,450 tonnes of ice per annum for local fisheries and food industries. However, at the expense of a 0.3 ¢/kWh increase in levelised energy costs, the ELFR increased saving of biomass (100 t/a) and land (9 ha/a). For solar thermal applications in areas with high land cost, the ELFR reduced levelised energy costs. It was determined that off-grid hybrid plants for tri-generation were the most feasible application in India. Whereas biomass-only plants were found to be more economically viable, it was concluded that hybrid systems will soon become cost competitive and can considerably improve current energy security and biomass supply chain issues in India.

A review of research and practice for the industrial networks of the future

Academic researchers have followed closely the interest of companies in establishing industrial networks by studying aspects such as social interaction and contractual relationships. But what patterns underlie the emergence of industrial networks and what support should research provide for practitioners? First, it appears that manufacturing is becoming a commodity rather than a unique capability, which accounts especially for low-technology approaches in downstream parts of the network, for example, in assembly operations. Second, the increased tendency towards specialisation has forced other, upstream, parts of industrial networks to introduce advanced manufacturing technologies for niche markets. Third, the capital market for investments in capacity, and the trade in manufacturing as a commodity, dominates resource allocation to a larger extent than was previously the case. Fourth, there is becoming a continuous move towards more loosely connected entities that comprise manufacturing networks. Finally, in these networks, concepts for supply chain management should address collaboration and information technology that supports decentralised decision-making, in particular to address sustainable and green supply chains. More traditional concepts, such as the keiretsu and chaibol networks of some Asian economies, do not sufficiently support the demands now being placed on networks. Research should address these five fundamental challenges to prepare for the industrial networks of 2020 and beyond. © 2010 Springer-Verlag London.