The macroeconomic effects of (different) oil shocks: A VAR approach

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Hospital Efficiency: Directed internship: Deloitte & NOVA SBE

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Economics from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Selection of a co-operation agreement between EMOVE – Innovative Technologies and WavEC – Wave Energy Center

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Management from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Credit risk stress testing: The Portuguese environment, macroeconomic scenarios and the estimation of losses for corporate sectors

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Human immune responses during schistosomiasis mansoni

Studies of immune responses as they occur in patients with schistosomiasis appear to progress relative to corrent technological advances, and to advance despite the understandable inability to pursue in vivo manipulations in this host/parasite system. Emphasis is most often placed on making immunological comparisons between such patient groups as reinfected/non-reinfected, intestinals/hepatosplenic, high/low intensities of infection, infected/uninfected within endemic areas, and those born of infected/uninfected mothers. Based on these types of comparisons, reasonable conjectures can be made regarding the immunological occurrences during this chronic exposure condition. Some consideration is now being given to the immune mechanisms of some of the observations made, and while some of these must then be carried back to experimental models for further manipulation-based analysis, new technological developments continue to assist in the field/bench ability to ask questions that might assist our understanding to a point where this knowledge can be applied to shaping developmental approaches to vaccine development and the goal of alleviating morbidity.

Acute schistosomiasis diagnosis: a new tool for the diagnosis of schistosomiasis in a group of travelers recently infected in a new focus of Schistosoma mansoni

IntroductionThe diagnosis of schistosomiasis mansoni on early stages of infection is important to prevent late morbidity. A simple, cheap, sensitive and specific assay for routine diagnosis of schistosome infection based on the detection of specific IgG for schistosomula tegument antigens (ELISA-SmTeg) was developed by our group.MethodsWe describe here an acute outbreak involving a travel group of 80 individuals from a non-endemic area of the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. These individuals were in contact with a freshwater pool where Biomphalaria glabrata was found. Results obtained from our new methodology were compared to IgG antibody titers against soluble worm antigenic preparation (SWAP) by ELISA and, also to parasitological examination, nuclear magnetic resonance and clinical findings.ResultsELISA-SmTeg was capable of detecting 64 positive cases among the 80 individuals participating at the survey with a positivity ratio of 80% and a higher sensitivity than ELISA-SWAP that was only sensitive for 56% of positive cases. Besides, a significant correlation was found for the severity of the infection and the specific IgG titers against SmTeg.ConclusionsOur data showed that ELISA-SmTeg might serve as the initial diagnostic tool for acute stages of the infection in community-based helminth control programs or for the surveillance of individuals from non-endemic areas.

‘Right Back Where We Started From’: From ‘The Classics’ To Keynes, And Back Again

The purpose of this paper is to highlight the curiously circular course followed by mainstream macroeconomic thinking in recent times. Having broken from classical orthodoxy in the late 1930s via Keynes’s General Theory, over the last three or four decades the mainstream conventional wisdom, regressing rather than progressing, has now come to embrace a conception of the working of the macroeconomy which is again of a classical, essentially pre-Keynesian, character. At the core of the analysis presented in the typical contemporary macro textbook is the (neo)classical model of the labour market, which represents employment as determined (given conditions of productivity) by the terms of labour supply. While it is allowed that changes in aggregate demand may temporarily affect output and employment, the contention is that in due course employment will automatically return to its ‘natural’ (full employment) level. Unemployment is therefore identified as a merely frictional or voluntary phenomenon: involuntary unemployment - in other words persisting demand-deficient unemployment - is entirely absent from the picture. Variations in aggregate demand are understood to have a lasting impact only on the price level, not on output and employment. This in effect amounts to a return to a Pigouvian conception such as targeted by Keynes in the General Theory. We take the view that this reversion to ideas which should by now be obsolete reflects not the discovery of logical or empirical deficiencies in the Keynes analysis, but results rather from doctrinaire blindness and failure of scholarship on account of which essential features of the Keynes theory have been overlooked or misrepresented. There is an urgent need for a critical appraisal of the current conventional macroeconomic wisdom.

Present aspects of immunodiagnosis of schistosomiasis

Facilitated and improved by advances in molecular biology, techniques for the immunodiagnosis of schistosomiasis, including assays based on the detection of antigens circulating in the serum and/or excreted in the urine, have now reached the stage of multi-centre trials. There is a need to complement parasitological techniques as some national programmes are becoming increasingly succesful in establishng control of the disease and the classical approach frequently fails to reveal low-intensity infection. Epidemiological survey teams in some areas have tentatively started to use serology and their experience indicates that antibody detection suffies in eradicated or controlled areas with low expected prevalence but that detection of circulating antigens is needed for assessment of the incidence of infection or reinfection in areas recently brought under control. Before reagents and procedures can be recommended for routine use of national control programmes, the assays must be standardized with sera from clinically well-characterized patients in geographically defined regions, hence emphasizing the need for a reference serum bank. Implementation of serological testing, carried out by nationsl public health laboratories using standardized testing systems, would permit valid comparisons between different areas providing support for decisions regarding national health polices.

Characteristic bimodal profiles of RNA polymerase II at thousands of active mammalian promoters.

BACKGROUND: In mammals, ChIP-seq studies of RNA polymerase II (PolII) occupancy have been performed to reveal how recruitment, initiation and pausing of PolII may control transcription rates, but the focus is rarely on obtaining finely resolved profiles that can portray the progression of PolII through sequential promoter states. RESULTS: Here, we analyze PolII binding profiles from high-coverage ChIP-seq on promoters of actively transcribed genes in mouse and humans. We show that the enrichment of PolII near transcription start sites exhibits a stereotypical bimodal structure, with one peak near active transcription start sites and a second peak 110 base pairs downstream from the first. Using an empirical model that reliably quantifies the spatial PolII signal, gene by gene, we show that the first PolII peak allows for refined positioning of transcription start sites, which is corroborated by mRNA sequencing. This bimodal signature is found both in mouse and humans. Analysis of the pausing-related factors NELF and DSIF suggests that the downstream peak reflects widespread pausing at the +1 nucleosome barrier. Several features of the bimodal pattern are correlated with sequence features such as CpG content and TATA boxes, as well as the histone mark H3K4me3. CONCLUSIONS: We thus show how high coverage DNA sequencing experiments can reveal as-yet unnoticed bimodal spatial features of PolII accumulation that are frequent at individual mammalian genes and reminiscent of transcription initiation and pausing. The initiation-pausing hypothesis is corroborated by evidence from run-on sequencing and immunoprecipitation in other cell types and species.

3D gait assessment in young and elderly subjects using foot-worn inertial sensors.

This study describes the validation of a new wearable system for assessment of 3D spatial parameters of gait. The new method is based on the detection of temporal parameters, coupled to optimized fusion and de-drifted integration of inertial signals. Composed of two wirelesses inertial modules attached on feet, the system provides stride length, stride velocity, foot clearance, and turning angle parameters at each gait cycle, based on the computation of 3D foot kinematics. Accuracy and precision of the proposed system were compared to an optical motion capture system as reference. Its repeatability across measurements (test-retest reliability) was also evaluated. Measurements were performed in 10 young (mean age 26.1±2.8 years) and 10 elderly volunteers (mean age 71.6±4.6 years) who were asked to perform U-shaped and 8-shaped walking trials, and then a 6-min walking test (6MWT). A total of 974 gait cycles were used to compare gait parameters with the reference system. Mean accuracy±precision was 1.5±6.8cm for stride length, 1.4±5.6cm/s for stride velocity, 1.9±2.0cm for foot clearance, and 1.6±6.1° for turning angle. Difference in gait performance was observed between young and elderly volunteers during the 6MWT particularly in foot clearance. The proposed method allows to analyze various aspects of gait, including turns, gait initiation and termination, or inter-cycle variability. The system is lightweight, easy to wear and use, and suitable for clinical application requiring objective evaluation of gait outside of the lab environment.

Glucocorticoids induce retinal toxicity through mechanisms mainly associated with paraptosis.

PURPOSE: Corticosteroids have recorded beneficial clinical effects and are widely used in medicine. In ophthalmology, besides their treatment benefits, side effects, including ocular toxicity have been observed especially when intraocular delivery is used. The mechanism of these toxic events remains, however, poorly understood. In our present study, we investigated the mechanisms and potential pathways of corticosteroid-induced retinal cell death. METHODS: Rats were sacrificed 24 h and 8 days after an intravitreous injection of 1 microl (40 microg) of Kenacort Retard. The eyes were processed for ultra structure analysis and detection of activated caspase-3, cytochrome-C, apoptosis-inducing factor (AIF), LEI-L-Dnase II, terminal transferase dUTP nick end labeling (TUNEL), and microtubule-associated protein 1-light chain 3 (MAP-LC3). In vitro, rat retinal pigment epithelial cells (RPE), retinal Müller glial cells (RMG) and human ARPE-19 cells were treated with triamcinolone acetonide (TA) or other glucocorticoids. Cell viability was quantified by 3-(4,5-dimethylthiazol-2-yl)-2,5 phenyltetrazolium bromide test (MTT) assay and cell counts. Nuclei staining, TUNEL assay, annexin-V binding, activated caspase-3 and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) production characterized cell death. Localization of cytochrome-C, AIF, LEI-and L-Dnase II, and staining with MAP-LC3 or monodansylcadaverine were also carried out. Finally, ARPE-19 cells transfected with AIP-1/Alix were exposed to TA. RESULTS: In vitro incubation of retinal cell in the presence of corticosteroids induced a specific and dose-dependent reduction of cell viability. These toxic events were not associated with the anti-inflammatory activity of these compounds but depended on the hydro solubility of their formulation. Before cell death, extensive cytoplasmic vacuolization was observed in the retinal pigment epithelial (RPE) cells in vivo and in vitro. The cells however, did not show known caspase-dependent or caspase-independent apoptotic reactions. These intracellular vacuoles were negative for MAP-LC3 but some stained positive for monodansylcadaverine. Furthermore, over expression of AIP-1/Alix inhibited RPE cell death. CONCLUSIONS: These observations suggest that corticosteroid-induced retinal cell death may be carried out mainly through a paraptosis pathway.

Atrial arrhythmias in adults with congenital heart disease.

BACKGROUND: Atrial arrhythmias increase disease burden in the general adult population. Adults with congenital heart lesions constitute a rapidly growing group of patients with cardiovascular disease. We hypothesized that atrial arrhythmias increase with age and impair health outcomes in this population. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a population-based analysis of prevalence, lifetime risk, mortality, and morbidity associated with atrial arrhythmias in adults with congenital heart disease from l983 to 2005. In 38 428 adults with congenital heart disease in 2005, 5812 had atrial arrhythmias. Overall, the 20-year risk of developing atrial arrhythmia was 7% in a 20-year-old subject and 38% in a 50-year-old subject. More than 50% of patients with severe congenital heart disease reaching age 18 years developed atrial arrhythmias by age 65 years. In patients with congenital heart disease, the hazard ratio of any adverse event in those with atrial arrhythmias compared with those without was 2.50 (95% confidence interval, 2.38 to 2.62; P<0.0001), with a near 50% increase in mortality (hazard ratio, 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.37 to 1.58; P<0.001), more than double the risk of morbidity (stroke or heart failure) (hazard ratio, 2.21; 95% confidence interval, 2.07 to 2.36; P<0.001), and 3 times the risk of cardiac interventions (hazard ratio, 3.00; 95% confidence interval, 2.81 to 3.20; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Atrial arrhythmias occurred in 15% of adults with congenital heart disease. The lifetime incidence increased steadily with age and was associated with a doubling of the risk of adverse events. An increase in resource allocation should be anticipated to deal with this increasing burden.

Laboratory diagnosis of Schistosomiasis in areas of low transmission: a review of a line of research

After 57 years of successful control of schistosomiasis in Venezuela, the prevalence and intensity of infection have declined. Approximately 80% of the individuals eliminate less than 100 eggs/g of stools, therefore morbidity is mild and the majority are asymptomatic. The sensitivity of Kato-Katz decreases to approximately 60%. Available serological methods for the detection of circulating antigens only reach a 70% of sensitivity. Tests based on the detection of antibodies by immunoenzymatic assays have been improved. The circumoval precipitine test has shown a high sensitivity (97%), specificity (100%), and correlation with oviposition, being considered the best confirmatory diagnostic test. Additionally to the classical immunoenzymatic assays, the development of the alkaline phosphatase immunoassay, allowed to reach a 100% specificity with an 89% sensitivity. Recently, we have developed a modified ELISA in which the soluble egg antigen is treated with sodium metaperiodate (SMP-ELISA) in order to eliminate the glycosilated epitopes responsible for the false positive reactions. The specificity and sensitivity reaches 97% and 99%, respectively. Synthetic peptides from the excretory-secretory enzymes, cathepsin B (Sm31) legumain (Sm32) and cathepsin D (Sm45), have been synthesized. The combination of two peptides derived from the Sm31 have been evaluated, reaching a sensitivity of 96% when analyzed independently and with a 100% specificity. Antibodies raised in rabbits against peptides derived from the Sm31 and Sm32 are currently evaluated in two different antigen-capture-based assays. The development of a simple, cheap and reliable test that correlates with parasite activity is a major goal.

Update on Chagas disease in Venezuela: a review

The present article reviews the status of Chagas disease in Venezuela based on the detection of Trypanosoma cruzi infections both in referred patients with clinical presumptive diagnosis (1988-2002) and in individuals sampled from rural localities representative of the different geographical regions of the country (1995-2002). In the former group from 306 individuals examined, 174 (56.8%) were seropositive to T. cruzi; 73 (42%) in the acute phase with 52 (71%) showing blood circulating parasites, and from these 38% were children under 10 years old. The other 101 (58%) showed chronic infection at different degrees of cardiac complication. In addition, serologic examination of 3835 individuals from rural areas revealed 11.7% seroprevalence. From these, 8.5% (38/448) were children aged from 0 to 10 years old. These figures suggest that Chagas disease may be re-emerging in Venezuela judging for the active transmission detected during the last decade. The success of the Venezuelan anti-chagasic campaign during the last 40 years is evaluated in the frame of the present results. The epidemiological situation is discussed and recommendation to consider Chagas disease as a national priority is given.

The relationship between forensic science and judicial error: a study covering error sources, bias, and remedies

Summary : Forensic science - both as a source of and as a remedy for error potentially leading to judicial error - has been studied empirically in this research. A comprehensive literature review, experimental tests on the influence of observational biases in fingermark comparison, and semistructured interviews with heads of forensic science laboratories/units in Switzerland and abroad were the tools used. For the literature review, some of the areas studied are: the quality of forensic science work in general, the complex interaction between science and law, and specific propositions as to error sources not directly related to the interaction between law and science. A list of potential error sources all the way from the crime scene to the writing of the report has been established as well. For the empirical tests, the ACE-V (Analysis, Comparison, Evaluation, and Verification) process of fingermark comparison was selected as an area of special interest for the study of observational biases, due to its heavy reliance on visual observation and recent cases of misidentifications. Results of the tests performed with forensic science students tend to show that decision-making stages are the most vulnerable to stimuli inducing observational biases. For the semi-structured interviews, eleven senior forensic scientists answered questions on several subjects, for example on potential and existing error sources in their work, of the limitations of what can be done with forensic science, and of the possibilities and tools to minimise errors. Training and education to augment the quality of forensic science have been discussed together with possible solutions to minimise the risk of errors in forensic science. In addition, the time that samples of physical evidence are kept has been determined as well. Results tend to show considerable agreement on most subjects among the international participants. Their opinions on possible explanations for the occurrence of such problems and the relative weight of such errors in the three stages of crime scene, laboratory, and report writing, disagree, however, with opinions widely represented in existing literature. Through the present research it was therefore possible to obtain a better view of the interaction of forensic science and judicial error to propose practical recommendations to minimise their occurrence. Résumé : Les sciences forensiques - considérés aussi bien comme source de que comme remède à l'erreur judiciaire - ont été étudiées empiriquement dans cette recherche. Une revue complète de littérature, des tests expérimentaux sur l'influence du biais de l'observation dans l'individualisation de traces digitales et des entretiens semi-directifs avec des responsables de laboratoires et unités de sciences forensiques en Suisse et à l'étranger étaient les outils utilisés. Pour la revue de littérature, quelques éléments étudies comprennent: la qualité du travail en sciences forensiques en général, l'interaction complexe entre la science et le droit, et des propositions spécifiques quant aux sources d'erreur pas directement liées à l'interaction entre droit et science. Une liste des sources potentielles d'erreur tout le long du processus de la scène de crime à la rédaction du rapport a également été établie. Pour les tests empiriques, le processus d'ACE-V (analyse, comparaison, évaluation et vérification) de l'individualisation de traces digitales a été choisi comme un sujet d'intérêt spécial pour l'étude des effets d'observation, due à son fort recours à l'observation visuelle et dû à des cas récents d'identification erronée. Les résultats des tests avec des étudiants tendent à prouver que les étapes de prise de décision sont les plus vulnérables aux stimuli induisant des biais d'observation. Pour les entretiens semi-structurés, onze forensiciens ont répondu à des questions sur des sujets variés, par exemple sur des sources potentielles et existantes d'erreur dans leur travail, des limitations de ce qui peut être fait en sciences forensiques, et des possibilités et des outils pour réduire au minimum ses erreurs. La formation et l'éducation pour augmenter la qualité des sciences forensiques ont été discutées ainsi que les solutions possibles pour réduire au minimum le risque d'erreurs en sciences forensiques. Le temps que des échantillons sont gardés a été également déterminé. En général, les résultats tendent à montrer un grand accord sur la plupart des sujets abordés pour les divers participants internationaux. Leur avis sur des explications possibles pour l'occurrence de tels problèmes et sur le poids relatif de telles erreurs dans les trois étapes scène de crime;', laboratoire et rédaction de rapports est cependant en désaccord avec les avis largement représentés dans la littérature existante. Par cette recherche il était donc possible d'obtenir une meilleure vue de l'interaction des sciences forensiques et de l'erreur judiciaire afin de proposer des recommandations pratiques pour réduire au minimum leur occurrence. Zusammenfassung : Forensische Wissenschaften - als Ursache und als Hilfsmittel gegen Fehler, die möglicherweise zu Justizirrtümern führen könnten - sind hier empirisch erforscht worden. Die eingestzten Methoden waren eine Literaturübersicht, experimentelle Tests über den Einfluss von Beobachtungseffekten (observer bias) in der Individualisierung von Fingerabdrücken und halbstandardisierte Interviews mit Verantwortlichen von kriminalistischen Labors/Diensten in der Schweiz und im Ausland. Der Literaturüberblick umfasst unter anderem: die Qualität der kriminalistischen Arbeit im Allgemeinen, die komplizierte Interaktion zwischen Wissenschaft und Recht und spezifische Fehlerquellen, welche nicht direkt auf der Interaktion von Recht und Wissenschaft beruhen. Eine Liste möglicher Fehlerquellen vom Tatort zum Rapportschreiben ist zudem erstellt worden. Für die empirischen Tests wurde der ACE-V (Analyse, Vergleich, Auswertung und Überprüfung) Prozess in der Fingerabdruck-Individualisierung als speziell interessantes Fachgebiet für die Studie von Beobachtungseffekten gewählt. Gründe sind die Wichtigkeit von visuellen Beobachtungen und kürzliche Fälle von Fehlidentifizierungen. Resultate der Tests, die mit Studenten durchgeführt wurden, neigen dazu Entscheidungsphasen als die anfälligsten für Stimuli aufzuzeigen, die Beobachtungseffekte anregen könnten. Für die halbstandardisierten Interviews beantworteten elf Forensiker Fragen über Themen wie zum Beispiel mögliche und vorhandene Fehlerquellen in ihrer Arbeit, Grenzen der forensischen Wissenschaften und Möglichkeiten und Mittel um Fehler zu verringern. Wie Training und Ausbildung die Qualität der forensischen Wissenschaften verbessern können ist zusammen mit möglichen Lösungen zur Fehlervermeidung im selben Bereich diskutiert worden. Wie lange Beweismitten aufbewahrt werden wurde auch festgehalten. Resultate neigen dazu, für die meisten Themen eine grosse Übereinstimmung zwischen den verschiedenen internationalen Teilnehmern zu zeigen. Ihre Meinungen über mögliche Erklärungen für das Auftreten solcher Probleme und des relativen Gewichts solcher Fehler in den drei Phasen Tatort, Labor und Rapportschreiben gehen jedoch mit den Meinungen, welche in der Literatur vertreten werden auseinander. Durch diese Forschungsarbeit war es folglich möglich, ein besseres Verständnis der Interaktion von forensischen Wissenschaften und Justizirrtümer zu erhalten, um somit praktische Empfehlungen vorzuschlagen, welche diese verringern. Resumen : Esta investigación ha analizado de manera empírica el rol de las ciencias forenses como fuente y como remedio de potenciales errores judiciales. La metodología empleada consistió en una revisión integral de la literatura, en una serie de experimentos sobre la influencia de los sesgos de observación en la individualización de huellas dactilares y en una serie de entrevistas semiestructuradas con jefes de laboratorios o unidades de ciencias forenses en Suiza y en el extranjero. En la revisión de la literatura, algunas de las áreas estudiadas fueron: la calidad del trabajo en ciencias forenses en general, la interacción compleja entre la ciencia y el derecho, así como otras fuentes de error no relacionadas directamente con la interacción entre derecho y ciencia. También se ha establecido una lista exhaustiva de las fuentes potenciales de error desde la llegada a la escena del crimen a la redacción del informe. En el marco de los tests empíricos, al analizar los sesgos de observación dedicamos especial interés al proceso de ACE-V (análisis, comparación, evaluación y verificación) para la individualización de huellas dactilares puesto que este reposa sobre la observación visual y ha originado varios casos recientes de identificaciones erróneas. Los resultados de las experimentaciones realizadas con estudiantes sugieren que las etapas en las que deben tornarse decisiones son las más vulnerables a lös factores que pueden generar sesgos de observación. En el contexto de las entrevistas semi-estructuradas, once científicos forenses de diversos países contestaron preguntas sobre varios temas, incluyendo las fuentes potenciales y existehtes de error en su trabajo, las limitaciones propias a las ciencias forenses, las posibilidades de reducir al mínimo los errores y las herramientas que podrían ser utilizadas para ello. Se han sugerido diversas soluciones para alcanzar este objetivo, incluyendo el entrenamiento y la educación para aumentar la calidad de las ciencias forenses. Además, se ha establecido el periodo de conservación de las muestras judiciales. Los resultados apuntan a un elevado grado de consenso entre los entrevistados en la mayoría de los temas. Sin embargo, sus opiniones sobre las posibles causas de estos errores y su importancia relativa en las tres etapas de la investigación -la escena del crimen, el laboratorio y la redacción de informe- discrepan con las que predominan ampliamente en la literatura actual. De este modo, esta investigación nos ha permitido obtener una mejor imagen de la interacción entre ciencias forenses y errores judiciales, y comenzar a formular una serie de recomendaciones prácticas para reducirlos al minimo.