Impact of weather dependency on planning decisions in the australian national electricity market

A long-term planning method for the electricity market is to simulate market operation into the future. Outputs from market simulation include indicators for transmission augmentation and new generation investment. A key input to market simulations is demand forecasts. For market simulation purposes, regional demand forecasts for each half-hour interval of the forecasting horizon are required, and they must accurately represent realistic demand profiles and interregional demand relationships. In this paper, a demand model is developed to accurately model these relationships. The effects of uncertainty in weather patterns and inherent correlations between regional demands on market simulation results are presented. This work signifies the advantages of probabilistic modeling of demand levels when making market-based planning decisions.

A real options based method for power system planning

A deregulated electricity market is characterized with uncertainties, with both long and short terms. As one of the major long term planning issues, the transmission expansion planning (TEP) is aiming at implementing reliable and secure network support to the market participants. The TEP covers two major issues: technical assessment and financial evaluations. Traditionally, the net present value (NPV) method is the most accepted for financial evaluations, it is simple to conduct and easy to understand. Nevertheless, TEP in a deregulated market needs a more dynamic approach to incorporate a project's management flexibility, or the managerial ability to adapt in response to unpredictable market developments. The real options approach (ROA) is introduced here, which has clear advantage on counting the future course of actions that investors may take, with understandable results in monetary terms. In the case study, a Nordic test system has been testified and several scenarios are given for network expansion planning. Both the technical assessment and financial evaluation have been conducted in the case study.

Model driven distribution of collaborative business processes

In this paper, we present a top down approach for integrated process modelling and distributed process execution. The integrated process model can be utilized for global monitoring and visualization and distributed process models for local execution. Our main focus in this paper is the presentation of the approach to support automatic generation and linking of distributed process models from an integrated process definition.

When do conservation planning methods deliver? Quantifying the consequences of uncertainty

The rapid global loss of biodiversity has led to a proliferation of systematic conservation planning methods. In spite of their utility and mathematical sophistication, these methods only provide approximate solutions to real-world problems where there is uncertainty and temporal change. The consequences of errors in these solutions are seldom characterized or addressed. We propose a conceptual structure for exploring the consequences of input uncertainty and oversimpli?ed approximations to real-world processes for any conservation planning tool or strategy. We then present a computational framework based on this structure to quantitatively model species representation and persistence outcomes across a range of uncertainties. These include factors such as land costs, landscape structure, species composition and distribution, and temporal changes in habitat. We demonstrate the utility of the framework using several reserve selection methods including simple rules of thumb and more sophisticated tools such as Marxan and Zonation. We present new results showing how outcomes can be strongly affected by variation in problem characteristics that are seldom compared across multiple studies. These characteristics include number of species prioritized, distribution of species richness and rarity, and uncertainties in the amount and quality of habitat patches. We also demonstrate how the framework allows comparisons between conservation planning strategies and their response to error under a range of conditions. Using the approach presented here will improve conservation outcomes and resource allocation by making it easier to predict and quantify the consequences of many different uncertainties and assumptions simultaneously. Our results show that without more rigorously generalizable results, it is very dif?cult to predict the amount of error in any conservation plan. These results imply the need for standard practice to include evaluating the effects of multiple real-world complications on the behavior of any conservation planning method.

A study of the electrical and optical properties of unhydrogenated neon-sputtered amorphous silicon

Films of amorphous silicon (a-Si) were prepared by r.f. sputtering in a Ne plasma without the addition of hydrogen or a halogen. The d.c. dark electrical conductivity, he optical gap and the photoconductivity of the films were investigated for a range of preparation conditions, the sputtering gas pressure, P, the target-substrate spacing, d, the self-bias voltage, Vsb, on the target and the substrate temperature, Ts. The dependence of the electrical and optical properties on these conditions showed that various combinations of P, d and Vsb, at a constant Ts, giving the same product (Pd/V sb) result in films with similar properties, provided that P, d and Vsb remain vithin a certain range. Variation of Pd/Vsb between about 0.2 and 0.8 rrTorr.cm!V varied the dark conductivity over about 4 orders of magnitude, the optical gap by 0.5 eV and the photoconductivity over 4-5 orders of magnitude. This is attributed to controlling the density-of-states distribution in the mobility gap. The temperature-dependence of photoconductivity and the photoresponse of undoped films are in support of this conclusion. Films prepared at relatively high (Pd/Vsb) values and Ts=300 ºc: exhibited low dark-conductivity and high thermal activation energy, optical gap and photoresponse, characteristic properties of a 'low density-of-states material. P-type doping with group-Ill elements (Al, B and Ga) by sputtering from a composite target or from a predoped target (B-.doped) was investigated. The systematic variation of room-temperature conductivity over many orders of magnitude and a Fermi-level shift of about 0.7 eV towards the valence-band edge suggest that substitutional doping had taken place. The effects of preparation conditions on doping efficiency were also investigated. The post-deposition annealing of undoped and doped films were studied for a temperature range from 250 ºC to 470 ºC. It was shown that annealing enhanced the doping efficiency considerably, although it had little effect on the basic material (a-Si) prepared at the optimum conditions (Pd/Vsb=0.8 mTorr.cm/V and Ts=300 $ºC). Preliminary experiments on devices imply potential applications of the present material, such as p-n and MS junctions.

Managing enterprise resource planning and multi-organisational enterprise governance:a new contingency framework for the enterprisation of operations

This research has been undertaken to determine how successful multi-organisational enterprise strategy is reliant on the correct type of Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) information systems being used. However there appears to be a dearth of research as regards strategic alignment between ERP systems development and multi-organisational enterprise governance as guidelines and frameworks to assist practitioners in making decision for multi-organisational collaboration supported by different types of ERP systems are still missing from theoretical and empirical perspectives. This calls for this research which investigates ERP systems development and emerging practices in the management of multi-organisational enterprises (i.e. parts of companies working with parts of other companies to deliver complex product-service systems) and identify how different ERP systems fit into different multi-organisational enterprise structures, in order to achieve sustainable competitive success. An empirical inductive study was conducted using the Grounded Theory-based methodological approach based on successful manufacturing and service companies in the UK and China. This involved an initial pre-study literature review, data collection via 48 semi-structured interviews with 8 companies delivering complex products and services across organisational boundaries whilst adopting ERP systems to support their collaborative business strategies – 4 cases cover printing, semiconductor manufacturing, and parcel distribution industries in the UK and 4 cases cover crane manufacturing, concrete production, and banking industries in China in order to form a set of 29 tentative propositions that have been validated via a questionnaire receiving 116 responses from 16 companies. The research has resulted in the consolidation of the validated propositions into a novel concept referred to as the ‘Dynamic Enterprise Reference Grid for ERP’ (DERG-ERP) which draws from multiple theoretical perspectives. The core of the DERG-ERP concept is a contingency management framework which indicates that different multi-organisational enterprise paradigms and the supporting ERP information systems are not the result of different strategies, but are best considered part of a strategic continuum with the same overall business purpose of multi-organisational cooperation. At different times and circumstances in a partnership lifecycle firms may prefer particular multi-organisational enterprise structures and the use of different types of ERP systems to satisfy business requirements. Thus the DERG-ERP concept helps decision makers in selecting, managing and co-developing the most appropriate multi-organistional enterprise strategy and its corresponding ERP systems by drawing on core competence, expected competitiveness, and information systems strategic capabilities as the main contingency factors. Specifically, this research suggests that traditional ERP(I) systems are associated with Vertically Integrated Enterprise (VIE); whilst ERPIIsystems can be correlated to Extended Enterprise (EE) requirements and ERPIII systems can best support the operations of Virtual Enterprise (VE). The contribution of this thesis is threefold. Firstly, this work contributes to a gap in the extant literature about the best fit between ERP system types and multi-organisational enterprise structure types; and proposes a new contingency framework – the DERG-ERP, which can be used to explain how and why enterprise managers need to change and adapt their ERP information systems in response to changing business and operational requirements. Secondly, with respect to a priori theoretical models, the new DERG-ERP has furthered multi-organisational enterprise management thinking by incorporating information system strategy, rather than purely focusing on strategy, structural, and operational aspects of enterprise design and management. Simultaneously, the DERG-ERP makes theoretical contributions to the current IS Strategy Formulation Model which does not explicitly address multi-organisational enterprise governance. Thirdly, this research clarifies and emphasises the new concept and ideas of future ERP systems (referred to as ERPIII) that are inadequately covered in the extant literature. The novel DERG-ERP concept and its elements have also been applied to 8 empirical cases to serve as a practical guide for ERP vendors, information systems management, and operations managers hoping to grow and sustain their competitive advantage with respect to effective enterprise strategy, enterprise structures, and ERP systems use; referred to in this thesis as the “enterprisation of operations”.

Investigating the role of capacitive coupling between the operating table and the return electrode of an electrosurgery unit in the modification of the current density distribution within the patients’ body

Background: Electrosurgery units are widely employed in modern surgery. Advances in technology have enhanced the safety of these devices, nevertheless, accidental burns are still regularly reported. This study focuses on possible causes of sacral burns as complication of the use of electrosurgery. Burns are caused by local densifications of the current, but the actual pathway of current within patient's body is unknown. Numerical electromagnetic analysis can help in understanding the issue. Methods: To this aim, an accurate heterogeneous model of human body (including seventy-seven different tissues), electrosurgery electrodes, operating table and mattress was build to resemble a typical surgery condition. The patient lays supine on the mattress with the active electrode placed onto the thorax and the return electrode on his back. Common operating frequencies of electrosurgery units were considered. Finite Difference Time Domain electromagnetic analysis was carried out to compute the spatial distribution of current density within the patient's body. A differential analysis by changing the electrical properties of the operating table from a conductor to an insulator was also performed. Results: Results revealed that distributed capacitive coupling between patient body and the conductive operating table offers an alternative path to the electrosurgery current. The patient's anatomy, the positioning and the different electromagnetic properties of tissues promote a densification of the current at the head and sacral region. In particular, high values of current density were located behind the sacral bone and beneath the skin. This did not occur in the case of non-conductive operating table. Conclusion: Results of the simulation highlight the role played from capacitive couplings between the return electrode and the conductive operating table. The concentration of current density may result in an undesired rise in temperature, originating burns in body region far from the electrodes. This outcome is concordant with the type of surgery-related sacral burns reported in literature. Such burns cannot be immediately detected after surgery, but appear later and can be confused with bedsores. In addition, the dosimetric analysis suggests that reducing the capacity coupling between the return electrode and the operating table can decrease or avoid this problem. © 2013 Bifulco et al.; licensee BioMed Central Ltd.

Identifying PV module mismatch faults by a thermography-based temperature distribution analysis

Photovoltaic (PV) solar power generation is proven to be effective and sustainable but is currently hampered by relatively high costs and low conversion efficiency. This paper addresses both issues by presenting a low-cost and efficient temperature distribution analysis for identifying PV module mismatch faults by thermography. Mismatch faults reduce the power output and cause potential damage to PV cells. This paper first defines three fault categories in terms of fault levels, which lead to different terminal characteristics of the PV modules. The investigation of three faults is also conducted analytically and experimentally, and maintenance suggestions are also provided for different fault types. The proposed methodology is developed to combine the electrical and thermal characteristics of PV cells subjected to different fault mechanisms through simulation and experimental tests. Furthermore, the fault diagnosis method can be incorporated into the maximum power point tracking schemes to shift the operating point of the PV string. The developed technology has improved over the existing ones in locating the faulty cell by a thermal camera, providing a remedial measure, and maximizing the power output under faulty conditions.

Európai Unió: túlélés vagy távlati tervezés – az állam változó szerepei (European Union – survival or long term planning?)

Az EU-ban, a mai állapotok szerint, csak „transzferunióról” beszélhetünk és nem egységes piacról. Az eurós pénzfolyamatok eltorzítva közvetítik a versenyképességet is: mind az árukban és vagyontárgyakban, mind – főleg – a pénzügyi eszközökben megtestesült munkákat/teljesítményeket rosszul árazzák. Egy ilyen keretben különösen könnyen alakul ki az, amit potyautas-problémának nevezünk, vagyis ahol tényleges vagy mérhető teljesítményleadás, vagy éppen fizetés nélkül lehet fogyasztani, és túl olcsón lehet szabad forrásokhoz jutni. Az eurózóna számos közvetítő mechanizmusában is tökéletlen. A sok, szuverénadósság-présbe került tagország között van kicsi, közepes és nagy is. Ez a tény, valamint az általános növekedési és munkapiaci problémák, egyértelműen „rendszerszintű zavarokat” jeleznek, amelyeket ebben a dolgozatban teljesítmény közvetítési-átviteli problémának hívunk, és ezért egy szokatlan, ám annál beszédesebb, elektromosenergia-átviteli rendszeranalógiával segítünk értelmezni. Megmutatjuk, hogy egy jó nagyvállalat miért jobb pénzügyi tervező, mint egy azonos méretű állam. _____ Why are ill-defined transfer mechanisms diverting valuable assets and resources to the wrong destination within the EU? Why do we witness ongoing pressure in the EU banking sector and in government finances? We offer an unusual answer to these questions: we apply an analogy from physics (from an electric generation and distribution network) to show the transmission inefficiency and waste, respectively, of the EU distribution mechanisms. We demonstrate that there are inherent flaws in both the measurement and in the distribution of assets and resources amongst the key EU markets: goods, money and factor markets. In addition, we find that when international equalizer mechanism is at work (cohesion funds allocated), many of these equity functions are at risk with respect to their reliable measurement. Especially are at risk the metered load factors, likewise the loss/waste factors. The map of desired outcomes does not match the real outcome, since EUtransfers in general are put to work with low efficiency.

Impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Mediterranean pines

The impact of climate change on the potential distribution of four Mediterranean pine species – Pinus brutia Ten., Pinus halepensis Mill., Pinus pinaster Aiton, and Pinus pinea L. – was studied by the Climate Envelope Model (CEM) to examine whether these species are suitable for the use as ornamental plants without frost protection in the Carpathian Basin. The model was supported by EUFORGEN digital area database (distribution maps), ESRI ArcGIS 10 software’s Spatial Analyst module (modeling environment), PAST (calibration of the model with statistical method), and REMO regional climate model (climatic data). The climate data were available in a 25 km resolution grid for the reference period (1961–1990) and two future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070). The regional climate model was based on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. While the potential distribution of P. brutia was not predicted to expand remarkably, an explicit shift of the distribution of the other three species was shown. Northwestern African distribution segments seem to become abandoned in the future. Current distribution of P. brutia may be highly endangered by the climate change. P. halepensis in the southern part and P. pinaster in the western part of the Carpathian Basin may find suitable climatic conditions in the period of 2041–2070.

Modeling the future distribution of Mediterranean Pinus species

The potential future distribution of four Mediterranean pines was aimed to be modeled supported by EUFORGEN digital area database (distribution maps), ESRI ArcGIS 10 software’s Spatial Analyst module (modeling environment), PAST (calibration of the model with statistical method), and REMO regional climate model (climatic data). The studied species were Pinus brutia, Pinus halepensis, Pinus pinaster, and Pinus pinea. The climate data were available in a 25 km resolution grid for the reference period (1961-90) and two future periods (2011-40, 2041-70). The climate model was based on the IPCC SRES A1B scenario. The model results show explicit shift of the distributions to the north in case of three of the four studied species. The future (2041-70) climate of Western Hungary seems to be suitable for Pinus pinaster.