Optimal strategies in political elections

In the Majoritarian Parliamentary System, the government has a constitutional right to call an early election. This right provides the government a control to achieve its objective to remain in power for as long as possible. We model the early election problem mathematically using opinion polls data as a stochastic process to proxy the government's probability of re-election. These data measure the difference in popularity between the government and the opposition. We fit a mean reverting Stochastic Differential Equation to describe the behaviour of the process and consider the possibility for the government to use other control tools, which are termed 'boosts' to induce shocks to the opinion polls by making timely policy announcements or economic actions. These actions improve the government's popularity and have some impact upon the early-election exercise boundary. © Austral. Mathematical Soc. 2005.

Impact of liberalization on efficiency and productivity of sugar industry in Kenya

Purpose – The data used in this study is for the period 1980-2000. Almost midway through this period (in 1992), the Kenyan government liberalized the sugar industry and the role of the market increased, while the government's role with respect to control of prices, imports and other aspects in the sector declined. This exposed the local sugar manufacturers to external competition from other sugar producers, especially from the COMESA region. This study aims to find whether there were any changes in efficiency of production between the two periods (pre and post-liberalization). Design/methodology/approach – The study utilized two methodologies to efficiency estimation: data envelopment analysis (DEA) and the stochastic frontier. DEA uses mathematical programming techniques and does not impose any functional form on the data. However, it attributes all deviation from the mean function to inefficiencies. The stochastic frontier utilizes econometric techniques. Findings – The test for structural differences in the two periods does not show any statistically significant differences between the two periods. However, both methodologies show a decline in efficiency levels from 1992, with the lowest period experienced in 1998. From then on, efficiency levels began to increase. Originality/value – To the best of the authors' knowledge, this is the first paper to use both methodologies in the sugar industry in Kenya. It is shown that in industries where the noise (error) term is minimal (such as manufacturing), the DEA and stochastic frontier give similar results.

The Ukrainian presidential elections of 2010

Ukrainians went to the polls in 2010 to elect a president for the fifth time since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, electing Viktor Yanukovych with a narrow majority over Yulia Tymoshenko in the second round run-off on 7 February. This article provides a contextual introduction to the 2010 presidential election, an analysis of the campaign and the results and concludes with a discussion of post-election coalition building and what the election means for the consolidation of Ukrainian democracy and Ukraine’s European integration process.

Maintenance of communication in primary classrooms : some evidence for the role of elicitation and code-switching in English medium schools in Kenya, with implications for teaching

This is a study of specific aspects of classroom interaction primary school level in Kenya. The study entailed the identification of the sources of particular communication problems during the change-over period from Kiswahili to English medium teaching in two primary schools. There was subsequently an examination of the language resources which were employed by teachers to maintain pupil participation in communication in the light of the occurrence of possibility of occurrence of specific communication problems. The language resources which were found to be significant in this regard concerned firstly the use of different elicitation types by teachers to stimulate pupils into giving responses and secondly teachers' recourse to code-switching from English to Kiswahili and vice-versa. It was also found in this study that although the use of English as the medium of instruction in the classrooms which were observed resulted in certain communication problems, some of these problems need not have arisen if teachers had been more careful in their use of language. The consideration of this finding, after taking into account the role of different elicitation types and code-switching as interpretable from data samples had certain implications which are specified in the study for teaching in Kenyan primary schools. The corpus for the study consisted of audio-recordings of English, Science and Number-Work lessons which were later transcribed. Relevant data samples were subsequently extracted from transcripts for analysis. Many of the samples have examples of cases of communication breakdowns, but they also illustrate how teachers maintained interaction with pupils who had yet to acquire an operational mastery of English. This study thus differs from most studies on classroom interaction because of its basic concern with the examination of the resources available to teachers for overcoming the problem areas of classroom communication.

The role and relevance of non-government aid:a case study of Kenya

How effective are non-government organisations (NG0s) in their response to Third World poverty? That is the question which this thesis examines. The thesis begins with an overview of the problems facing Third World communities, and notes the way in which people in Britain have responded through NG0s. A second part of the thesis sets out the issues on which the analysis of NGOs has been made. These are: - the ways in which NGOs analyse the process of development; - the use of 'improving nutrition' and 'promoting self-reliance' as special objectives by NG0s; and - the nature of rural change, and the implications for NGOs as agents of rural development. Kenya is taken as a case study. Firstly the political and economic structure of the country is studied, and the natures of development, nutritional problems and self-reliance in the Kenyan context are noted. The study then focusses attention onto Kitui District, an area of Kenya which at the time of the study was suffering from drought. However, it is argued that the problems of Kitui District and the constraints to change there are as much a consequence of Kenya's structural underdevelopment as of reduced rainfall. Against this background the programmes of some British NGOs in the country are examined, and it is concluded that much of their work has little relevance to the principal problems which have been identified. A final part of the thesis takes a wider look at the policies and practices of NG0s. Issues such as the choice of countries in which NGOs work, how they are represented overseas, and their educational role in Britain are considered. It is concluded that while all NGOs have a concern for the conditions in which the poorest communities of the Third World live, many NGOs take a quite narrow view of development problems, giving only little recognition to the international and intranational political and economic systems which contribute to Third World poverty.

Expatriate managers adjustment and its impact on subordinates reactions: a cross cultural leadership study of Kenya and Ethiopia

Research on culture, leadership and adjustment shows that societal culture influences leadership in such a way that it can impact on expatriate managers' effectiveness and adjustment in a new culture. In previous research, cultural background, personality, motives or behaviour of expatriate managers and their followers' reactions to them have been investigated in Europe, America and Asia. However, little attention has been paid on research on expatriate managers in African cultures especially in Eastern Africa. The present study represents an attempt to address the gap by examining how societal culture, leadership and adjustment success are interrelated for expatriate managers in Kenya and Ethiopia. Questionnaire data were obtained from a) local middle managers (N=160) for studying societal culture and leadership in Kenya and Ethiopia, b) expatriate managers in non-governmental organizations - NGOs (N=28) for studying expatriate managers' personality, motives and adjustment success and c) their immediate subordinates (N=125) for studying the expatriate managers' behaviours and their subordinates' reactions to them. Additionally, expatriate managers were interviewed and responses were coded for implicit motives, experiences and adjustment. SPSS was used to analyse data from questionnaires to obtain cultural and leadership dimensions, leader behaviour and subordinate reactions. The NVIVO computer based disclosure analysis package was used to analyse interview data. Findings indicate that societal culture influences leadership behaviours and leadership perceptions while the expatriate managers' motives, behaviours, personality and the cross cultural training they received prior to their assignment impact on the expatriates' adjustment success and on subordinates' reactions to them. The cultural fit between expatriate managers' home country (19 countries) and the target country (Kenya or Ethiopia) had no significant association with adjustment success but was positively related to expatriate behaviour and negatively associated with subordinates reactions. However, some particular societal practices - obviously adopted by expatriates and transferred to their target country - did predict subordinates' commitment, motivation and job satisfaction. Furthermore, expatriates' responsibility motivation was positively related to their adjustment success. Regarding leadership behaviours and effectiveness, expatriate' supportive behaviours predicted subordinates' job satisfaction most strongly. Expatriate managers expressing their management philosophies and experience shed light on the various aspects of adjustment and management of NGOs. In addition, review of Kenyan and Ethiopian cultures and the NGO context in these countries offers valuable information for expatriate managers. This study's general imphcation for Cross Cultural Management and lnternational Human Resources Management is that the combination of culture general and culture specific knowledge and reflections on Eastern Africa countries can inform senior management and international HR staff about the critical issue of what to include in training, coaching, and actual experience in a particular host country in order to ensure effective leadership. Furthennore, this knowledge is expected to influence expatriate managers' behaviour modification to enhance positive subordinate reactions. Questions about how to prepare expatriate managers and subordinates to work more competently and sensitively across cultures are addressed. Further theoretical implications, limitations of the study and directions for future research are also addressed.