The European Union Foreign Policy in the Caucasus and Central Asia: The Limitations of the Opening towards the East

This article intends to study the evolution of the European Union foreign policy in the Southern Caucasus and Central Area throughout the Post-Cold War era. The aim is to analyze Brussels’ fundamental interests and limitations in the area, the strategies it has implemented in the last few years, and the extent to which the EU has been able to undermine the regional hegemons’ traditional supremacy. As will be highlighted, the Community’s chronic weaknesses, the local determination to preserve sovereignty and an increasing international geopolitical competition undermine any European aspiration to become a pre-eminent actor at the heart of the Eurasian continent in the near future.

Soviet Union, East and South Asia.

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Shifting Powers : Protection of Refugees and Displaced Persons in the Asia Pacific Region

The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees' (UNHCR) 2011 statistics on refugee populations residing by region are a stark reminder of the challenge facing states and civil society in the Asia Pacific. In 2011, Africa hosted 2,149,000 refugees; the Americas, Europe, and Middle East and North Africa hosted 513 ,500, 1,605,500 and 1,889,900 respectively, while the Asia Pacific hosted a staggering 3,793,900. The fact that 35 per cent of the world's refugees reside in the Asia Pacific, coupled with the fact that 84 per cent of refugees displaced in Asia remain in the region,raises the questions why so few countries in the region are signatories to the Convention relating to the Status of Refugees ('Refugee Convention') or cognate rights instruments and why no formally binding regional agreement exists for the equitable sharing of responsibilities for refugees...

Using mathematical modelling to evaluate drivers and predict trajectories of HIV and STI epidemics in South East Asian and Australian populations

Objective To evaluate the potential impact of the current global economic crisis (GEC) on the spread of HIV. Design To evaluate the impact of the economic downturn we studied two distinct HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia: the generalized epidemic in Cambodia where incidence is declining and the epidemic in Papua New Guinea (PNG) which is in an expansion phase. Methods Major HIV-related risk factors that may change due to the GEC were identified and a dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed and used to forecast HIV prevalence, diagnoses, and incidence in Cambodia and PNG over the next 3 years. Results In Cambodia, the total numbers of HIV diagnoses are not expected to be largely affected. However, an estimated increase of up to 10% in incident cases of HIV, due to potential changes in behavior, may not be observed by the surveillance system. In PNG, HIV incidence and diagnoses could be more affected by the GEC, resulting in respective increases of up to 17% and 11% over the next 3 years. Decreases in VCT and education programs are the factors that may be of greatest concern in both settings. A reduction in the rollout of antiretroviral therapy could increase the number of AIDS-related deaths (by up to 7.5% after 3 years). Conclusions The GEC is likely to have a modest impact on HIV epidemics. However, there are plausible conditions under which the economic downturns can noticeably influence epidemic trends. This study highlights the high importance of maintaining funding for HIV programs.

The 1989 Comprehensive Plan of Action (CPA) and refugee policy in Southeast Asia : twenty years forward what has changed?

In 2012, the only South East Asian countries that have ratified the 1951 Convention relating to the Status of Refugees and the 1967 Protocol Relating to the Status of Refugees (hereafter referred to as the 1951 Convention and 1967 Protocol) is Philippines (signed 1954), Cambodia (signed 1995) and Timor Leste (signed 2001). Countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand have annual asylum seeking populations from Myanmar, South Asia and Middle East, that are estimated to be at 15 000-20 000 per country (UNHCR 2012). The lack of a permanent and formal asylum processing process in these countries means that that asylum-seeking populations in the region are reliant on the local offices of the United Nations High Commission for Refugees based in the region to process their claims. These offices rely upon the good will of these governments to have a presence near detection camps and in capital cities to process claims of those who manage to reach the UNHCR representative office. The only burden sharing mechanism within the region primarily exists under the Bali Process on People Smuggling, Trafficking in Persons and Related Transnational Crime (the Bali Process), introduced in 2002. The Bali Process refers to an informal cooperative agreement amongst the states from the Asia-Pacific region, with Australia and Indonesia as the co-chairs, which discusses its namesake: primarily anti-people smuggling activities and migration protocols. There is no provision within this process to discuss the development of national asylum seeking legislation, processes for domestic processing of asylum claims or burden sharing in contrast to other regions such as Africa and South America (i.e. 2009 African Union Convention for the Protection and Assistance of the Internally Displaced, 1969 African Union Convention Governing the Specific Aspects of Refugee Problems in Africa and 1984 Cartagena Declaration on Refugees [Americas]) (PEF 2010: 19).

A hard slog, not a leap frog : globalization and sustainability transitions in developing Asia

How does globalization influence transitions toward more sustainable socio-technical regimes in the developing world? This paper argues that transformations of regimes, the networks and institutions governing technological and environmental practices in an industry, can be positively influenced by globalization but it depends on how global forces interact with local socio-political landscapes-the political-economic institutions, values, and regulations broadly guiding an economy and its relationship to the environment. We evaluate these relationships through a comparison of two kinds of socio-political landscapes-the neo-liberal export-led development model commonly found in the developing world and the uniquely Asian capitalist developmental state. We first show how the neo-liberal model overemphasizes the power of market forces to facilitate upgrading and more sustainable industrialization. We then argue that capitalist developmental states in East and Southeast Asia have been better able to harness global economic forces for technological and sustainability transitions through an openness to trade and investment and effective public-private institutions able to link cleaner technologies and environmental standards to production activities in firms. We buttress this argument with firm-level evidence showing the evolution of socio-technical regimes in two industries-cement and electronics. The case studies demonstrate how interactions with OECD firms can contribute to environmental technique effects provided the socio-political landscape is amenable to changes in an industry's regime. Ultimately, we find the process of transition to be complex and contingent; a hard slog not a leap frog toward a potentially more sustainable future. We close by considering the limitations on the capitalist developmental state model and with comments about what else needs to be learned about globalization's role in sustainability transitions.

The Distribution of Henipaviruses in Southeast Asia and Australasia: Is Wallace's Line a Barrier to Nipah Virus?

Nipah virus (NiV) (Genus Henipavirus) is a recently emerged zoonotic virus that causes severe disease in humans and has been found in bats of the genus Pteropus. Whilst NiV has not been detected in Australia, evidence for NiV-infection has been found in pteropid bats in some of Australia's closest neighbours. The aim of this study was to determine the occurrence of henipaviruses in fruit bat (Family Pteropodidae) populations to the north of Australia. In particular we tested the hypothesis that Nipah virus is restricted to west of Wallace's Line. Fruit bats from Australia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor and Indonesia were tested for the presence of antibodies to Hendra virus (HeV) and Nipah virus, and tested for the presence of HeV, NiV or henipavirus RNA by PCR. Evidence was found for the presence of Nipah virus in both Pteropus vampyrus and Rousettus amplexicaudatus populations from East Timor. Serology and PCR also suggested the presence of a henipavirus that was neither HeV nor NiV in Pteropus alecto and Acerodon celebensis. The results demonstrate the presence of NiV in the fruit bat populations on the eastern side of Wallace's Line and within 500 km of Australia. They indicate the presence of non-NiV, non-HeV henipaviruses in fruit bat populations of Sulawesi and Sumba and possibly in Papua New Guinea. It appears that NiV is present where P. vampyrus occurs, such as in the fruit bat populations of Timor, but where this bat species is absent other henipaviruses may be present, as on Sulawesi and Sumba. Evidence was obtained for the presence henipaviruses in the non-Pteropid species R. amplexicaudatus and in A. celebensis. The findings of this work fill some gaps in knowledge in geographical and species distribution of henipaviruses in Australasia which will contribute to planning of risk management and surveillance activities.

Stock assessment of the Queensland east coast common coral trout (Plectropomus leopardus) fishery

Common coral trout Plectropomus leopardus is an iconic fish of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and is the most important fish for the commercial fishery there. Most of the catch is exported live to Asia. This stock assessment was undertaken in response to falls in catch sizes and catch rates in recent years, in order to gauge the status of the stock. It is the first stock assessment ever conducted of coral trout on the GBR, and brings together a multitude of different data sources for the first time. The GBR is very large and was divided into a regional structure based on the Bioregions defined by expert committees appointed by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority (GBRMPA) as part of the 2004 rezoning of the GBR. The regional structure consists of six Regions, from the Far Northern Region in the north to the Swains and Capricorn–Bunker Regions in the south. Regions also closely follow the boundaries between Bioregions. Two of the northern Regions are split into Subregions on the basis of potential changes in fishing intensity between the Subregions; there are nine Subregions altogether, which include four Regions that are not split. Bioregions are split into Subbioregions along the Subregion boundaries. Finally, each Subbioregion is split into a “blue” population which is open to fishing and a “green” population which is closed to fishing. The fishery is unusual in that catch rates as an indicator of abundance of coral trout are heavily influenced by tropical cyclones. After a major cyclone, catch rates fall for two to three years, and rebound after that. This effect is well correlated with the times of occurrence of cyclones, and usually occurs in the same month that the cyclone strikes. However, statistical analyses correlating catch rates with cyclone wind energy did not provide significantly different catch rate trends. Alternative indicators of cyclone strength may explain more of the catch rate decline, and future work should investigate this. Another feature of catch rates is the phenomenon of social learning in coral trout populations, whereby when a population of coral trout is fished, individuals quickly learn not to take bait. Then the catch rate falls sharply even when the population size is still high. The social learning may take place by fish directly observing their fellows being hooked, or perhaps heeding a chemo-sensory cue emitted by fish that are hooked. As part of the assessment, analysis of data from replenishment closures of Boult Reef in the Capricorn–Bunker Region (closed 1983–86) and Bramble Reef in the Townsville Subregion (closed 1992–95) estimated a strong social learning effect. A major data source for the stock assessment was the large collection of underwater visual survey (UVS) data collected by divers who counted the coral trout that they sighted. This allowed estimation of the density of coral trout in the different Bioregions (expressed as a number of fish per hectare). Combined with mapping data of all the 3000 or so reefs making up the GBR, the UVS results provided direct estimates of the population size in each Subbioregion. A regional population dynamic model was developed to account for the intricacies of coral trout population dynamics and catch rates. Because the statistical analysis of catch rates did not attribute much of the decline to tropical cyclones, (and thereby implied “real” declines in biomass), and because in contrast the UVS data indicate relatively stable population sizes, model outputs were unduly influenced by the unlikely hypothesis that falling catch rates are real. The alternative hypothesis that UVS data are closer to the mark and declining catch rates are an artefact of spurious (e.g., cyclone impact) effects is much more probable. Judging by the population size estimates provided by the UVS data, there is no biological problem with the status of coral trout stocks. The estimate of the total number of Plectropomus leopardus on blue zones on the GBR in the mid-1980s (the time of the major UVS series) was 5.34 million legal-sized fish, or about 8400 t exploitable biomass, with an 2 additional 3350 t in green zones (using the current zoning which was introduced on 1 July 2004). For the offshore regions favoured by commercial fishers, the figure was about 4.90 million legal-sized fish in blue zones, or about 7700 t exploitable biomass. There is, however, an economic problem, as indicated by relatively low catch rates and anecdotal information provided by commercial fishers. The costs of fishing the GBR by hook and line (the only method compatible with the GBR’s high conservation status) are high, and commercial fishers are unable to operate profitably when catch rates are depressed (e.g., from a tropical cyclone). The economic problem is compounded by the effect of social learning in coral trout, whereby catch rates fall rapidly if fishers keep returning to the same fishing locations. In response, commercial fishers tend to spread out over the GBR, including the Far Northern and Swains Regions which are far from port and incur higher travel costs. The economic problem provides some logic to a reduction in the TACC. Such a reduction during good times, such as when the fishery is rebounding after a major tropical cyclone, could provide a net benefit to the fishery, as it would provide a margin of stock safety and make the fishery more economically robust by providing higher catch rates during subsequent periods of depressed catches. During hard times when catch rates are low (e.g., shortly after a major tropical cyclone), a change to the TACC would have little effect as even a reduced TACC would not come close to being filled. Quota adjustments based on catch rates should take account of long-term trends in order to mitigate variability and cyclone effects in data.

Weeds of Direct-Seeded Rice in Asia: Problems and Opportunities

Rice production symbolizes the single largest land use for food production on the Earth. The significance of this cereal as a source of energy and income seems overwhelming for millions of people in Asia, representing 90% of global rice production and consumption. Estimates indicate that the burgeoning population will need 25% more rice by 2025 than today's consumption. As the demand for rice is increasing, its production in Asia is threatened by a dwindling natural resource base, socioeconomic limitations, and uncertainty of climatic optima. Transplanting in puddled soil with continuous flooding is a common method of rice crop establishment in Asia. There is a dire need to look for rice production technologies that not only cope with existing limitations of transplanted rice but also are viable, economical, and secure for future food demand.Direct seeding of rice has evolved as a potential alternative to the current detrimental practice of puddling and nursery transplanting. The associated benefits include higher water productivity, less labor and energy inputs, less methane emissions, elimination of time and edaphic conflicts in the rice-wheat cropping system, and early crop maturity. Realization of the yield potential and sustainability of this resource-conserving rice production technique lies primarily in sustainable weed management, since weeds have been recognized as the single largest biological constraint in direct-seeded rice (DSR). Weed competition can reduce DSR yield by 30-80% and even complete crop failure can occur under specific conditions. Understanding the dynamics and outcomes of weed-crop competition in DSR requires sound knowledge of weed ecology, besides production factors that influence both rice and weeds, as well as their association. Successful adoption of direct seeding at the farmers' level in Asia will largely depend on whether farmers can control weeds and prevent shifts in weed populations from intractable weeds to more difficult-to-control weeds as a consequence of direct seeding. Sustainable weed management in DSR comprises all the factors that give DSR a competitive edge over weeds regarding acquisition and use of growth resources. This warrants the need to integrate various cultural practices with weed control measures in order to broaden the spectrum of activity against weed flora. A weed control program focusing entirely on herbicides is no longer ecologically sound, economically feasible, and effective against diverse weed flora and may result in the evolution of herbicide-resistant weed biotypes. Rotation of herbicides with contrasting modes of action in conjunction with cultural measures such as the use of weed-competitive rice cultivars, sowing time, stale seedbed technique, seeding rate, crop row spacing, fertilizer and water inputs and their application method/timing, and manual and mechanical hoeing can prove more effective and need to be optimized keeping in view the type and intensity of weed infestation. This chapter tries to unravel the dynamics of weed-crop competition in DSR. Technological issues, limitations associated with DSR, and opportunities to combat the weed menace are also discussed as a pragmatic approach for sustainable DSR production. A realistic approach to secure yield targets against weed competition will combine the abovementioned strategies and tactics in a coordinated manner. This chapter further suggests the need of multifaceted and interdisciplinary research into ecologically based weed management, as DSR seems inevitable in the near future.

East Asian audio-visual collaboration and the global expansion of Chinese media

In recent years, many of the world’s leading media producers, screenwriters, technicians and investors, particularly those in the Asia-Pacific region, have been drawn to work in the People's Republic of China (hereafter China or Mainland China). Media projects with a lighter commercial entertainment feel – compared with the heavy propaganda-oriented content of the past – have multiplied, thanks to the Chinese state’s newfound willingness to consider collaboration with foreign partners. This is no more evident than in film. Despite their long-standing reputation for rigorous censorship, state policymakers are now encouraging Chinese media entrepreneurs to generate fresh ideas and to develop products that will revitalise the stagnant domestic production sector. It is hoped that an increase in both the quality and quantity of domestic feature films, stimulated by an infusion of creativity and cutting-edge technology from outside the country, will help reverse China’s ‘cultural trade deficit’ (wenhua maoyi chizi) (Keane 2007).

Analysis of shore line protection works in tsunami hit areas of east coast of India

Evaluation and design of shore protection works in the case of tsunamis assumes considerable importance in view of the impact it had in the recent tsunami of 26th December 2004 in India and other countries in Asia. The fact that there are no proper guidelines have made in the matters worse and resulted in the magnitude of damage that occurred. Survey of the damages indicated that the scour as a result of high velocities is one of the prime reasons for damages in the case of simple structures. It is revealed that sea walls in some cases have been helpful to minimize the damages. The objective of this paper is to suggest that design of shore line protection systems using expected wave heights that get generated and use of flexible systems such as geocells is likely to give a better protection. The protection systems can be designed to withstand the wave forces that corresponding to different probabilities of incidence. A design approach of geocells protection system is suggested and illustrated with reference to the data of wave heights in the east coast of India.