842 resultados para Distribuições de probabilidades


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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Objetivo: Estimar as probabilidades acumuladas de sobrevida dos pacientes diagnosticados com carcinoma espinocelular nos 10 primeiros anos do Centro de Oncologia Bucal da UNESP, Campus de Araçatuba, de 1991 a 2000, observadas até 2005, estabelecendo os possíveis fatores prognósticos significativos para o óbito. Méttodo: A análise de sobrevida foi realizada em uma coorte de 280 pacientes com carcinoma espinocelular, no Centro de Oncologia Bucal da Faculdade de Odontologia de Araçatuba, UNESP, entre 1991 e 2000. Para avaliar a associação entre as variáveis independentes e o óbito, realizou-se o teste Log Rank. A probabilidade do teste com p-valor menor que 0,25 ficou estabelecida para a inclusão das covariáveis no processo de ajustamento do modelo. A sobrevida foi estimada pelo método de produto limite de Kaplan-Meier. Os fatores prognósticos foram estimados pelo modelo de riscos proporcionais de Cox, calculando-se razão da função de risco (HR). A análise de resíduo foi realizada para verificar o ajuste do modelo. Resultados: As taxas de probabilidades acumuladas de sobrevida de 280 pacientes, para os casos em estádio IV, foram, 56,74%, 32,13%, 23,71% e 20,57%, respectivamente, até 1, 2, 3 e 5 anos após o diagnóstico. Pacientes no estádio I apresentaram sobrevida em 5 anos de 81,73%. O estadiamento clínico da doença no diagnóstico foi o único fator prognóstico definido no processo de ajuste de modelo. A estimativa da razão da função de riscos de morrer em pacientes diagnosticados no estádio III (HR=3,3), é praticamente três vezes o risco daqueles em estádio I; da mesma forma, o risco de morrer dos diagnosticados em estádio IV (HR=6,17) é cerca de seis vezes ao daqueles em estádio I. Conclusões: A covariável que permaneceu no modelo final foi estadiamento clínico no momento do diagnóstico, sendo, pois, o único fator prognóstico.

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The brachytherapy braquiterapia is an x-ray modality radiotherapy in which stamped or halfstamped radioactive sources in format of seeds are used, wires or to one short distance, in contact or implanted to the fabric to be treated. All the treatment modalities require a previous planning. The formalism recommended for calculation of dose was considered by the AAPM for the first TG-43 Report. In it distributions of dose of isolated seeds measured and calculated by Monte Carlo method in water instead of with models half-empiricists. In this work we in accordance with present some preliminary results of the calculation of functions of radial anisotropy and of dose in the distance for seed of 192Ir, wide used in brachytherapy treatments of high tax of dose (HDR), with the aid of the program based on the Monte Carlo method MCNPX v2.50 (Mount Carlo N ParticleeXtended). The materials chosen in the simulation beyond water, had been MS20 and estriado muscle

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The brachytherapy braquiterapia is an x-ray modality radiotherapy in which stamped or halfstamped radioactive sources in format of seeds are used, wires or to one short distance, in contact or implanted to the fabric to be treated. All the treatment modalities require a previous planning.The formalism recommended for calculation of dose was considered by the AAPM for the first TG-43 Report. In it distributions of dose of isolated seeds measured and calculated by Monte Carlo method in water instead of with models half-empiricists.In this work we in accordance with present some preliminary results of the calculation of functions of radial anisotropy and of dose in the distance for seed of 192Ir, wide used in brachytherapy treatments of high tax of dose (HDR), with the aid of the program based on the Monte Carlo method MCNPX v2.50 (Mount Carlo N ParticleeXtended).The materials chosen in the simulation beyond water, had been MS20 and estriado muscle

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In order to to research, the region of Perau, base metal mineralization, Grupo Votorantim Metals conducted a soil sampling on targets predetermined holding its chemical analysis. These reviews have been provided by the company for this work was to evaluate the potential use of these data pedogeochemical multi-element for refinement of the work of geological mapping. We selected six targets: Varginha, Salvador, Guararema Taquara Lisa and Coffin of Mendes, in the municipalities of Adrianople, Cerro Azul and Tunas do Paraná, located in Vale do Ribeira (PR). Both have about 10 km2 and situated in the geological context of the Fold Belt Terrane and the Massif de Joinville. The main rock types are present metasedimentary rocks of low to medium grade metamorphic, interspersed the amphibolites ortoderivados, both belonging to the Complex Perau, gneisses and migmatitic Complex. Applied to the geochemical data descriptive statistical techniques (variogram, kriging and histogram). From the correlation between the distributions of elements with the geological data, we could assess the potential of the proposed methodology.

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In this work we present a discussion and the results of the simulation of disease spread using the Monte Carlo method. The dissemination model is the SIR model and presents as main characteristic the disease evolution among individuals of the population subdivided into three groups: susceptible (S), infected (I) and recovered (R). The technique used is based on the introduction of transition probabilities S-> I and I->R to do the spread of the disease, they are governed by a Poisson distribution. The simulation of the spread of disease was based on the randomness introduced, taking into account two basic parameters of the model, the power of infection and average time of the disease. Considering appropriate values of these parameters, the results are presented graphically and analysis of these results gives information on a group of individuals react to the changes of these parameters and what are the chances of a disease becoming a pandemic

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This study aims to analyze various index stock exchanges around the world, with mathematical methods, analyzing the Product Distribution function (PDF), cumulative distribution and correlation. It is thought that the world economy is connected, as if the financial markets were a network, where the fluctuation of a market generates a variation on another and another, creating a pattern, that this change will affect the entire network, thus creating what we might call the domino effect. From this we intend to study, using as a basis the main index of the major stock exchanges around the world the relationship they have with each other, analyzing the influence and correlation that generates this effect, showing that markets are connected and influence each other. We can see this effect in the crisis of 2008, where the U.S. market from one moment to the other was shaken, affecting the whole world in a few days, creating effects that are felt in the present day

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The aim of this work is to study some of the density estimation tec- niques and to apply to the segmentation of medical images. Medical images are used to help the diagnostic of tumor diseases as well as to plan and deliver treatment. A computer image is an array of values representing colors in some scale. The smallest element of the image to which it is possible to assign a value is called pixel. Segmen- tation is the process of dividing the image in portions through the classi¯cation of each pixel. The simplest way of classi¯cation is by thresholding, given the number of portions and the threshold values. Another method is constructing a histogram of the pixel values and assign a portion to each pike. The threshold is the mean between two pikes. As the histogram does not form a smooth curve it is di±cult to discern between true pikes and random variation. Density estimation methods allow the estimation of a smooth curve. Image data can be considered as mixture of different densities. In this project parametric and nonparametric methods for density estimation will be addressed and some of them are applied to CT image data

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Pós-graduação em Zootecnia - FCAV

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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

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Pós-graduação em Matemática em Rede Nacional - IBILCE

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A predição da resposta do tumor a radioterapia e a questão mais importante durante o tratamento de pacientes com câncer. Como consequência, a predição de genes que sejam responsivos a radiação ionizante e uma possibilidade para a melhoria dos resultados clínicos e a otimização das doses as quais os pacientes são submetidos ao longo do tratamento. Juntamente com esses dados, é possível obter respostas sobre os mecanismos de resistência a radiação dos tumores e até mesmo a identificação de biomarcadores responsáveis pela resistência a radiação ionizante que podem ser potenciais para o desenvolvimento de novas drogas visando a proteção de tecidos saudáveis. A determinação experimental dos genes que sejam responsivos à radiação ionizante é algo caro e que demanda muito tempo e trabalho; porém, se utilizarmos uma forma computacional de direcionar os estudos experimentais diretamente aos genes que têm mais potencial para serem responsivos à radiação ionizante, as pesquisas podem ser mais direcionadas e específicas. Para determinar essa característica, construímos, analisamos e determinamos os dados da topologia da rede integrada de interações moleculares entre genes humanos, contendo interações físicas entre proteínas, interações metabólicas e interações de regulação transcricional. Os dados topológicos foram utilizados como atributos de treinamento para o aprendizado de máquina, no qual os genes conhecidamente responsivos à radiação ionizante foram apresentados a um algoritmo de árvore de decisão que gerou modelos de predição com índices de sensibilidade e precisão de 5% e 72%, respectivamente. Os índices de acerto obtidos para os conjuntos de teste foram satisfatórios, retornando 91% dos genes conhecidos como responsiveis à radiação ionizante utilizados para o treinamento da árvore de decisão. Nós aplicamos o modelo de predição na rede integrada e atribuímos probabilidades ...

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This monograph aims to contribute to the understanding and analysis of extreme events and its correlation with anthropogenic actions, in order to understand the levels of human interference in the environment and to identify potential social and environmental damage that such events may result in Ubatuba, located on the northern coast of São Paulo state. Therefore, two strategies were established, on one hand, episodic analysis of extreme weather events, and on the other, the analysis of the impact of atmospheric phenomena in everyday society. In this case we gave greater emphasis to analysis years that had higher total rainfall. In this sense, the research was based on the standard deviation technique and percentages, which supported to characterize the exceptional rainy years, in addition, use of rhythm analysis technique that has helped to identify the active atmospheric systems. From a qualitative point of view, field works were carried out in order to make use of news by the local press and civil defense for years considered extreme (positive standard deviation). From this, it was analyzed how the extreme episodes of rainfall trigger repercussions in geographic space. Also the spatial distribution of rainfall were carried out by means of quantitative analysis of six rain gauges. It was found that the highest occurrences of impacts, are located in the central areas of the city, as well as the highest rainfall totals. In fact, Ubatuba/SP suffers from very high rainfall totals and has a singularity on the climate...