Pollinator community responses to the spatial population structure of wild plants: A pan-European approach

Land-use changes can alter the spatial population structure of plant species, which may in turn affect the attractiveness of flower aggregations to different groups of pollinators at different spatial scales. To assess how pollinators respond to spatial heterogeneity of plant distributions and whether honeybees affect visitation by other pollinators we used an extensive data set comprising ten plant species and their flower visitors from five European countries. In particular we tested the hypothesis that the composition of the flower visitor community in terms of visitation frequencies by different pollinator groups were affected by the spatial plant population structure, viz. area and density measures, at a within-population (‘patch’) and among-population (‘population’) scale. We found that patch area and population density were the spatial variables that best explained the variation in visitation frequencies within the pollinator community. Honeybees had higher visitation frequencies in larger patches, while bumblebees and hoverflies had higher visitation frequencies in sparser populations. Solitary bees had higher visitation frequencies in sparser populations and smaller patches. We also tested the hypothesis that honeybees affect the composition of the pollinator community by altering the visitation frequencies of other groups of pollinators. There was a positive relationship between visitation frequencies of honeybees and bumblebees, while the relationship with hoverflies and solitary bees varied (positive, negative and no relationship) depending on the plant species under study. The overall conclusion is that the spatial structure of plant populations affects different groups of pollinators in contrasting ways at both the local (‘patch’) and the larger (‘population’) scales and, that honeybees affect the flower visitation by other pollinator groups in various ways, depending on the plant species under study. These contrasting responses emphasize the need to investigate the entire pollinator community when the effects of landscape change on plant–pollinator interactions are studied.

Picture this: how illustrations define dictionaries

Illustrations are an integral part of many dictionaries, but the selection, placing, and sizing of illustrations is often highly conservative, and can appear to reflect the editorial concerns and technological constraints of previous eras. We might start with the question ‘why not illustrate?’, especially when we consider the ability of an illustration to simplify the definition of technical terms. How do illustrations affect the reader’s view of a dictionary as objective, and how illustrations reinforce the pedagogic aims of the dictionary? By their graphic nature, illustrations stand out from the field of text against which they stand, and they can immediately indicate to the reader the level of seriousness or popularity of the book’s approach, or the age-range that it is intended for. And illustrations are expensive to create and can add to printing costs, so it is not surprising that there is much direct and indirect copying from dictionary to dictionary, and simple re-use. This article surveys developments in illustrating dictionaries, considering the difference between distributing individual illustrations through the text of the dictionary and grouping illustrations into larger synoptic illustrations; the graphic style of illustrations; and the role of illustrations in ‘feature-led’ dictionary marketing.

Observed adaptation to climate change as initiated transition

This paper investigates whether and to what extent a wide range of actors in the UK are adapting to climate change, and whether this is evidence of a social transition. We document evidence of over 300 examples of early adopters of adaptation practice to climate change in the UK. These examples span a range of activities from small adjustments (or coping), to building adaptive capacity, to implementing actions and to creating deeper systemic change in public and private organisations in a range of sectors. We find that adaptation in the UK has been dominated by government initiatives and has principally occurred in the form of research into climate change impacts. These government initiatives have stimulated a further set of actions at other scales in public agencies, regulatory agencies and regional government (and the devolved administrations), though with little real evidence of climate change adaptation initiatives trickling down to local government level. The sectors requiring significant investment in large scale infrastructure have invested more heavily than those that do not in identifying potential impacts and adaptations. Thus we find a higher level of adaptation activity by the water supply and flood defence sectors. Sectors that are not dependent on large scale infrastructure appear to be investing far less effort and resources in preparing for climate change. We conclude that the UK government-driven top-down targeted adaptation approach has generated anticipatory action at low cost in some areas. We also conclude that these actions may have created enough niche activities to allow for diffusion of new adaptation practices in response to real or perceived climate change. These results have significant implications for how climate policy can be developed to support autonomous adaptors in the UK and other countries.

The politics of temporary work deregulation in Europe: solving the French puzzle

Temporary work has expanded in the last three decades with adverse implications for inequalities. Because temporary workers are a constituency that is unlikely to impose political costs, governments often choose to reduce temporary work regulations. While most European countries have indeed implemented such reforms, France went in the opposite direction, despite having both rigid labour markets and high unemployment. My argument to solve this puzzle is that where replaceability is high, workers in permanent and temporary contracts have overlapping interests, and governments choose to regulate temporary work to protect permanent workers. In turn, replaceability is higher where permanent workers’ skills are general and wage coordination is low. Logistic regression analysis of the determinants of replaceability — and how this affects governments’ reforms of temporary work regulations — supports my argument. Process tracing of French reforms also confirm that the left has tightened temporary work regulations to compensate for the high replaceability.

A systematic approach to identify the sources of tropical SST errors in coupled models using the adjustment of initialised experiments

Understanding the sources of systematic errors in climate models is challenging because of coupled feedbacks and errors compensation. The developing seamless approach proposes that the identification and the correction of short term climate model errors have the potential to improve the modeled climate on longer time scales. In previous studies, initialised atmospheric simulations of a few days have been used to compare fast physics processes (convection, cloud processes) among models. The present study explores how initialised seasonal to decadal hindcasts (re-forecasts) relate transient week-to-month errors of the ocean and atmospheric components to the coupled model long-term pervasive SST errors. A protocol is designed to attribute the SST biases to the source processes. It includes five steps: (1) identify and describe biases in a coupled stabilized simulation, (2) determine the time scale of the advent of the bias and its propagation, (3) find the geographical origin of the bias, (4) evaluate the degree of coupling in the development of the bias, (5) find the field responsible for the bias. This strategy has been implemented with a set of experiments based on the initial adjustment of initialised simulations and exploring various degrees of coupling. In particular, hindcasts give the time scale of biases advent, regionally restored experiments show the geographical origin and ocean-only simulations isolate the field responsible for the bias and evaluate the degree of coupling in the bias development. This strategy is applied to four prominent SST biases of the IPSLCM5A-LR coupled model in the tropical Pacific, that are largely shared by other coupled models, including the Southeast Pacific warm bias and the equatorial cold tongue bias. Using the proposed protocol, we demonstrate that the East Pacific warm bias appears in a few months and is caused by a lack of upwelling due to too weak meridional coastal winds off Peru. The cold equatorial bias, which surprisingly takes 30 years to develop, is the result of an equatorward advection of midlatitude cold SST errors. Despite large development efforts, the current generation of coupled models shows only little improvement. The strategy proposed in this study is a further step to move from the current random ad hoc approach, to a bias-targeted, priority setting, systematic model development approach.

A method to assess individual research outputs

We present here a straightforward method which can be used to obtain a quantitative indication of an individual research output for an academic. Different versions, selections and options are presented to enable a user to easily calculate values both for stand-alone papers and overall for the collection of outputs for a person. The procedure is particularly useful as a metric to give a quantitative indication of the research output of a person over a time window. Examples are included to show how the method works in practice and how it compares to alternative techniques.

An energy budget agent-based model of earthworm populations and its application to study the effects of pesticides

Earthworms are important organisms in soil communities and so are used as model organisms in environmental risk assessments of chemicals. However current risk assessments of soil invertebrates are based on short-term laboratory studies, of limited ecological relevance, supplemented if necessary by site-specific field trials, which sometimes are challenging to apply across the whole agricultural landscape. Here, we investigate whether population responses to environmental stressors and pesticide exposure can be accurately predicted by combining energy budget and agent-based models (ABMs), based on knowledge of how individuals respond to their local circumstances. A simple energy budget model was implemented within each earthworm Eisenia fetida in the ABM, based on a priori parameter estimates. From broadly accepted physiological principles, simple algorithms specify how energy acquisition and expenditure drive life cycle processes. Each individual allocates energy between maintenance, growth and/or reproduction under varying conditions of food density, soil temperature and soil moisture. When simulating published experiments, good model fits were obtained to experimental data on individual growth, reproduction and starvation. Using the energy budget model as a platform we developed methods to identify which of the physiological parameters in the energy budget model (rates of ingestion, maintenance, growth or reproduction) are primarily affected by pesticide applications, producing four hypotheses about how toxicity acts. We tested these hypotheses by comparing model outputs with published toxicity data on the effects of copper oxychloride and chlorpyrifos on E. fetida. Both growth and reproduction were directly affected in experiments in which sufficient food was provided, whilst maintenance was targeted under food limitation. Although we only incorporate toxic effects at the individual level we show how ABMs can readily extrapolate to larger scales by providing good model fits to field population data. The ability of the presented model to fit the available field and laboratory data for E. fetida demonstrates the promise of the agent-based approach in ecology, by showing how biological knowledge can be used to make ecological inferences. Further work is required to extend the approach to populations of more ecologically relevant species studied at the field scale. Such a model could help extrapolate from laboratory to field conditions and from one set of field conditions to another or from species to species.

Using high-frequency water quality data to assess sampling strategies for the EU Water Framework Directive

The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) requires that the ecological and chemical status of water bodies in Europe should be assessed, and action taken where possible to ensure that at least "good" quality is attained in each case by 2015. This paper is concerned with the accuracy and precision with which chemical status in rivers can be measured given certain sampling strategies, and how this can be improved. High-frequency (hourly) chemical data from four rivers in southern England were subsampled to simulate different sampling strategies for four parameters used for WFD classification: dissolved phosphorus, dissolved oxygen, pH and water temperature. These data sub-sets were then used to calculate the WFD classification for each site. Monthly sampling was less precise than weekly sampling, but the effect on WFD classification depended on the closeness of the range of concentrations to the class boundaries. In some cases, monthly sampling for a year could result in the same water body being assigned to three or four of the WFD classes with 95% confidence, due to random sampling effects, whereas with weekly sampling this was one or two classes for the same cases. In the most extreme case, the same water body could have been assigned to any of the five WFD quality classes. Weekly sampling considerably reduces the uncertainties compared to monthly sampling. The width of the weekly sampled confidence intervals was about 33% that of the monthly for P species and pH, about 50% for dissolved oxygen, and about 67% for water temperature. For water temperature, which is assessed as the 98th percentile in the UK, monthly sampling biases the mean downwards by about 1 °C compared to the true value, due to problems of assessing high percentiles with limited data. Low-frequency measurements will generally be unsuitable for assessing standards expressed as high percentiles. Confining sampling to the working week compared to all 7 days made little difference, but a modest improvement in precision could be obtained by sampling at the same time of day within a 3 h time window, and this is recommended. For parameters with a strong diel variation, such as dissolved oxygen, the value obtained, and thus possibly the WFD classification, can depend markedly on when in the cycle the sample was taken. Specifying this in the sampling regime would be a straightforward way to improve precision, but there needs to be agreement about how best to characterise risk in different types of river. These results suggest that in some cases it will be difficult to assign accurate WFD chemical classes or to detect likely trends using current sampling regimes, even for these largely groundwater-fed rivers. A more critical approach to sampling is needed to ensure that management actions are appropriate and supported by data.

Increases in the longevity of desiccation-phase developing rice seeds: response to high temperature drying depends on harvest moisture content

• Background and Aims Earlier studies have suggested that the drying conditions routinely used by genebanks may not be optimal for subsequent seed longevity. The aim of this study was to compare the effect of hot-air drying with low temperature drying on subsequent seed longevity for 20 diverse rice accessions and to consider how factors related to seed production history might influence the results. • Methods Seeds were produced according to normal regeneration procedures at IRRI. They were harvested at different times (harvest date and days after anthesis (DAA), once for each accession) and dried either in a drying room (DR; 15% RH, 15°C), or in a flat-bed heated-air batch dryer (BD; 45°C, 8 h d-1) for up to 6 daily cycles followed by drying in the DR. Relative longevity was assessed by storage at 10.9% moisture content (m.c.) and 45°C. • Key Results Initial drying in the BD resulted in significantly greater longevity compared with the DR for 14 accessions (seed lots): the period of time for viability to fall to 50% for seeds dried in the BD as a percentage of that for seeds dried throughout in the DR varied between 1.3 and 372.2% for these 14 accessions. The seed lots that responded the most were harvested earlier in the season and at higher moisture content. Drying in the BD did not reduce subsequent longevity compared with DR drying for any of the remaining accessions. • Conclusions Seeds harvested at a m.c. where, according to the moisture desorption isotherm, they could still be metabolically active (>16.2%), may be in the first stage of the post-mass maturity, desiccation phase of seed development and able to increase longevity in response to hot-air drying. The genebank standards regarding seed drying for rice and, perhaps, for other tropical species should be reconsidered.

Uptake of agri-environmental schemes in the Less-Favoured Areas of Greece: The role of corruption and farmers' responses to the financial crisis

Vine-growing in the Less-Favoured Areas of Greece is facing multiple challenges that might lead to its abandonment. In an attempt to maintain rural populations, Rural Development Schemes have been created that offer the opportunity to rural households to maintain or expand their farming businesses including vine-growing. This paper stems from a study that used data from a cross-sectional survey of 204 farmers to investigate how farming systems and farmers’ perception of corruption, amongst other socio-economic factors, affected their decisions to continue vine-growing through participation in Rural Development Schemes, in three remote Less-Favoured Areas of Greece. The Theory of Planned Behaviour was used to frame the research problem with the assumption being that an individual’s intention to participate in a Scheme is based on their prior beliefs about it. Data from the survey were reduced and simplified by the use of non-linear principal component analysis. The ensuing variables were used in selectivity corrected ordered probit models to reveal farmers’ attitudes towards viticulture and rural development. It was found that economic factors, perceived corruption and farmers’ attitudes were significant determinants on whether to participate in the Schemes. The research findings highlight the important role of perceived corruption and the need for policies that facilitate farmers’ access to decision making centres.

Adding a treatment arm to an ongoing clinical trial: a review of methodology and practice

Incorporating an emerging therapy as a new randomisation arm in a clinical trial that is open to recruitment would be desirable to researchers, regulators and patients to ensure that the trial remains current, new treatments are evaluated as quickly as possible, and the time and cost for determining optimal therapies is minimised. It may take many years to run a clinical trial from concept to reporting within a rapidly changing drug development environment; hence, in order for trials to be most useful to inform policy and practice, it is advantageous for them to be able to adapt to emerging therapeutic developments. This paper reports a comprehensive literature review on methodologies for, and practical examples of, amending an ongoing clinical trial by adding a new treatment arm. Relevant methodological literature describing statistical considerations required when making this specific type of amendment is identified, and the key statistical concepts when planning the addition of a new treatment arm are extracted, assessed and summarised. For completeness, this includes an assessment of statistical recommendations within general adaptive design guidance documents. Examples of confirmatory ongoing trials designed within the frequentist framework that have added an arm in practice are reported; and the details of the amendment are reviewed. An assessment is made as to how well the relevant statistical considerations were addressed in practice, and the related implications. The literature review confirmed that there is currently no clear methodological guidance on this topic, but that guidance would be advantageous to help this efficient design amendment to be used more frequently and appropriately in practice. Eight confirmatory trials were identified to have added a treatment arm, suggesting that trials can benefit from this amendment and that it can be practically feasible; however, the trials were not always able to address the key statistical considerations, often leading to uninterpretable or invalid outcomes. If the statistical concepts identified within this review are considered and addressed during the design of a trial amendment, it is possible to effectively assess a new treatment arm within an ongoing trial without compromising the original trial outcomes.

Living to die and dying to live: the survival strategy behind leaf senescence

Senescence represents the final developmental act of the leaf, during which the leaf cell is dismantled in a coordinated manner to remobilize nutrients and to secure reproductive success. The process of senescence provides the plant with phenotypic plasticity to help it adapt to adverse environmental conditions. Here, we provide a comprehensive overview of the factors and mechanisms that control the onset of senescence. We explain how the competence to senesce is established during leaf development, as depicted by the senescence window model. We also discuss the mechanisms by which phytohormones and environmental stresses control senescence, as well as the impact of source-sink relationships on plant yield and stress tolerance. In addition, we discuss the role of senescence as a strategy for stress adaptation and how crop production and food quality could benefit from engineering or breeding crops with altered onset of senescence.

How does investing in cheap labour countries affect performance at home? Firm-level evidence from France and Italy

Transferring low tech manufacturing jobs to cheap labour countries is often seen by part of the general public and policy makers as a step into the de-industrialization of the European economies. However, recent contributions have shown that the effects on home economies are rarely negative. Our paper contributes to this literature by examining how outward investments to developing and less developed countries (LDCs) affect home activities of French and Italian firms that turn multinational in the period analysed. The effects of these investments are also compared to the effects of investments to developed economies (DCs). The analysis is carried out by using propensity score matching. We find no evidence of a negative effect of outward investments to LDCs. In Italy they have a positive long term effect on value added and employment. For France we find a positive effect on the size of domestic output and employment.

The blended approach to real estate allocations: performance implications of combining an exposure to German Spezialfonds with Global Listed Real Estate Securities

This paper seeks to increase the understanding of the performance implications for investors who choose to combine an unlisted real estate portfolio (in this case German Spezialfonds) with a (global) listed real estate element. We call this a “blended” approach to real estate allocations. For the avoidance of doubt, in this paper we are dealing purely with real estate equity (listed and unlisted) allocations, and do not incorporate real estate debt (listed or unlisted) or direct property into the process. A previous paper (Moss and Farrelly 2014) showed the benefits of the blended approach as it applied to UK Defined Contribution Pension Schemes. The catalyst for this paper has been the recent attention focused on German pension fund allocations, which have a relatively low (real estate) equity content, and a high bond content. We have used the MSCI Spezialfonds Index as a proxy for domestic German institutional real estate allocations, and the EPRA Global Developed Index as a proxy for a global listed real estate allocation. We also examine whether a rules based trading strategy, in this case Trend Following, can improve the risk adjusted returns above those of a simple buy and hold strategy for our sample period 2004-2015. Our findings are that by blending a 30% global listed portfolio with a 70% allocation (as opposed to a typical 100% weighting) to Spezialfonds, the real estate allocation returns increase from 2.88% p.a. to 5.42% pa. Volatility increases, but only to 6.53%., but there is a noticeable impact on maximum drawdown which increases to 19.4%. By using a Trend Following strategy raw returns are improved from 2.88% to 6.94% p.a. , The Sharpe Ratio increases from 1.05 to 1.49 and the Maximum Drawdown ratio is now only 1.83% compared to 19.4% using a buy and hold strategy . Finally, adding this (9%) real estate allocation to a mixed asset portfolio allocation typical for German pension funds there is an improvement in both the raw return (from 7.66% to 8.28%) and the Sharpe Ratio (from 0.91 to 0.98).

Ibrutinib inhibits platelet integrin αIIbβ3 outside-in signaling and thrombus stability but not adhesion to collagen

OBJECTIVE: Ibrutinib is an irreversible Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitor approved for treatment of Waldenstrom macroglobulinemia, chronic lymphocytic leukemia, and mantle cell lymphoma that increases the risk of bleeding among patients. Platelets from ibrutinib-treated patients exhibit deficiencies in collagen-evoked signaling in suspension; however, the significance of this observation and how it relates to bleeding risk is unclear, as platelets encounter immobile collagen in vivo. We sought to clarify the effects of ibrutinib on platelet function to better understand the mechanism underlying bleeding risk. APPROACH AND RESULTS: By comparing signaling in suspension and during adhesion to immobilized ligands, we found that the collagen signaling deficiency caused by ibrutinib is milder during adhesion to immobilized collagen. We also found that platelets in whole blood treated with ibrutinib adhered to collagen under arterial shear but formed unstable thrombi, suggesting that the collagen signaling deficiency caused by ibrutinib may not be the predominant cause of bleeding in vivo. However, clot retraction and signaling evoked by platelet adhesion to immobilized fibrinogen were also inhibited by ibrutinib, indicating that integrin αIIbβ3 outside-in signaling is also effected in addition to GPVI signaling. When ibrutinib was combined with the P2Y12 inhibitor, cangrelor, thrombus formation under arterial shear was inhibited additively. CONCLUSIONS: These findings suggest that (1) ibrutinib causes GPVI and integrin αIIbβ3 platelet signaling deficiencies that result in formation of unstable thrombi and may contribute toward bleeding observed in vivo and (2) combining ibrutinib with P2Y12 antagonists, which also inhibit thrombus stability, may have a detrimental effect on hemostasis.