The self-administered 24-item geriatric pain measure (GPM-24-SA): psychometric properties in three European populations of community-dwelling older adults

OBJECTIVE: To explore the feasibility and psychometric properties of a self-administered version of the 24-item Geriatric Pain Measure (GPM-24-SA). DESIGN: Secondary analysis of baseline data from the Prevention in Older People-Assessment in Generalists' practices trial, an international multi-center study of a health-risk appraisal system. PARTICIPANTS: One thousand seventy-two community dwelling nondisabled older adults self-reporting pain from London, UK; Hamburg, Germany; and Solothurn, Switzerland. OUTCOME MEASURES: GPM-24-SA as part of a multidimensional Health Risk Appraisal Questionnaire including self-reported demographic and health-related information. RESULTS: Among the 1,072 subjects, 655 had complete GPM-24-SA data, 404 had 30% missing GPM-24-SA data. In psychometric analyses across the three European populations with complete GPM-24-SA data, the measure exhibited stable internal consistency, good convergent, divergent and discriminant validity, and produced stable pain measurements. However, factor analysis indicated differences in the GPM-24-SA across sites with discrepancies mainly related to items of a single subscale that failed to load appropriately. Analyses including imputation for subjects with

Distinguishing phenotypes of childhood wheeze and cough using latent class analysis

Airway disease in childhood comprises a heterogeneous group of disorders. Attempts to distinguish different phenotypes have generally considered few disease dimensions. The present study examines phenotypes of childhood wheeze and chronic cough, by fitting a statistical model to data representing multiple disease dimensions. From a population-based, longitudinal cohort study of 1,650 preschool children, 319 with parent-reported wheeze or chronic cough were included. Phenotypes were identified by latent class analysis using data on symptoms, skin-prick tests, lung function and airway responsiveness from two preschool surveys. These phenotypes were then compared with respect to outcome at school age. The model distinguished three phenotypes of wheeze and two phenotypes of chronic cough. Subsequent wheeze, chronic cough and inhaler use at school age differed clearly between the five phenotypes. The wheeze phenotypes shared features with previously described entities and partly reconciled discrepancies between existing sets of phenotype labels. This novel, multidimensional approach has the potential to identify clinically relevant phenotypes, not only in paediatric disorders but also in adult obstructive airway diseases, where phenotype definition is an equally important issue.

Datenanalyse. Das Null-Ritual und der Umgang mit Effekten in der Zeitschrift für Sportpsychologie

Ziel dieses Beitrages ist die Analyse der Anwendung empirischer Tests in der deutschsprachigen Sportpsychologie. Die Ergebnisse vergleichbarer Analysen, bspw. in der Psychologie, zeigen, dass zwischen Anforderungen aus Testkonzepten und empirischer Realität Unterschiede existieren, die bislang für die Sportpsychologie nicht beschrieben und bewertet worden sind. Die Jahrgänge 1994–2007 der Zeitschrift für Sportpsychologie (früher psychologie und sport) wurden danach untersucht, ob Forschungsfragen formuliert, welche Stichprobenart gewählt, welches Testkonzept verwendet, welches Signifikanzniveau benutzt und ob statistische Probleme diskutiert wurden. 83 Artikel wurden von zwei unabhängigen Bewertern nach diesen Aspekten kategorisiert. Als Ergebnis ist festzuhalten, dass in der sportpsychologischen Forschung überwiegend eine Mischung aus Fishers Signifikanztesten sowie Neyman-Pearsons-Hypothesentesten zur Anwendung kommt,das sogenannte „Hybrid-Modell” oder „Null-Ritual”. Die Beschreibung der Teststärke ist kaum zu beobachten. Eine zeitliche Analyse der Beiträge zeigt, dass vor allem die Benutzung von Effektgrößen in den letzten Jahren zugenommen hat. Abschließend werden Ansätze zur Verbesserung und der Vereinheitlichung der Anwendung empirischer Tests vorgeschlagen und diskutiert.

Italia: La chiusura della Casa dell’Emigrante come spunto riflessione sui rientri degli emigrati italiani

In the literature on migration, as well as in social policies regarding this phenomenon, the situation of returning emigrants receives scant attention. This essay establishes an intricate connection between attitudes and policies that prevail in a country regarding emigration and those concerning immigration. The case of Italy provides a prime example for this as it once was a classical country of emigration, only to turn, in recent decades, into a country that appears highly attractive (and relatively accessible) to immigrants. The essay traces the pervasive ambiguity that characterizes this country’s attitudes towards emigration from the beginning of mass emigration shortly after the unification of Italy in 1868 to the emigration policies of the fascist regime of Mussolini and the post-World War II waves of emigration right through to the corresponding ambiguity concerning the status of immigrants in contemporary society, including the indifferent treatment of returning Italian emigrants who constitute a considerable numerical phenomenon. These reflections take their origin from the impending closure of a reception centre in Lazio, the Casa dell’Emigrante near Sant’Elia Fiumerapido, Province of Frosinone, ostensibly for financial reasons. This centre had been the only one of its kind in the whole of Italy dealing officially with the needs of repatriated Italians. It had assisted returning emigrants both with practical matters, such as negotiating the labyrinth of Italian bureaucracy , and with psychological implications of a return, which are often considerable given the time lag of experiences with current social realities and the frequently unrealistic expectations associated with the return. Questions of identity become highly acute in those circumstances. The threatened closure of the centre illustrates the unwillingness of the state to face up to the factual prevalence of migratory experiences in the country as a whole and as a core element of national history, experiences of migration in both directions. The statistics speak for themselves: of the 4.660.427 persons who left Italy between 1880 and 1950, 2.322.451 have returned, almost exactly 50%. To those have to be added 3.628.430 returnees of the 5.109.860 emigrants who left Italy between the end of World War II and 1976 for Europe alone. Attitudes towards people leaving changed ostensibly over time. In the first two decades after Unification parliament on the one hand wanted to show some concern over the fate of its citizens, not wanting to abandon those newly created citizens entirely to their own destiny, while on the other portraying their decisions to emigrate as expressions of individual liberty and responsibility and not necessitated by want and poverty. Emigrants had to prove, paradoxically that they had the requisite means to emigrate when in fact poverty was largely driving them to emigrate. To admit that publicly would have amounted to admission of economic and political failure made evident through emigration. In contrast to that Mussolini’s emigration policies not only enforced large population movements within the territory of Italy to balance unemployment between regions and particularly between North and South, but also declared it citizen’s duty to be ready to move also to the colonies, thereby ‘turning emigration as a sign of social crisis into a sign of national strength and the success of the country’s political agenda’ (Gaspari 2001, p. 34). The duplicity continued even after World War II when secret deals were done with the USA to allow a continuous flow of Italian immigrants and EU membership obviously further facilitated the departure of unemployed, impoverished Italians. With the growing prosperity of Italy the reversal of the direction of migration became more obvious. On the basis of empirical research conducted by one of the author on returning emigrants four types of motives for returning can be distinguished: 1. Return as a result of failure – particularly the emigrants who left during the 1950-1970 period usually had no linguistic preparation, and in any case the gap between the spoken and the written language is enormous with the latter often being insurmountable. This gives rise to nostalgic sentiments which motivates a return into an environment where language is familiar 2. Return as a means of preserving an identity – the life of emigrants often takes place within ghetto-like conditions where familiarity is being reproduced but under restricted conditions and hence not entirely authentic. The necessity for saving money permits only a partial entry into the host society and at the same time any accumulating savings add to the desire to return home where life can be lived fully again – or so it seems. 3. Return of investment – the impossibility to become fully part of another society often motivates migrants to accumulate not so much material wealth but new experiences and competences which they then aim to reinvest in their home country. 4. Return to retire – for many emigrants returning home becomes acute once they leave a productive occupation and feelings of estrangement build up, in conjunction with the efforts of having invested in building a house back home. All those motives are associated with a variety of difficulties on the actual return home because, above all, time in relation to the country of origin has been suspended for the emigrant and the encounter with the reality of that country reveals constant discrepancies and requires constant readjustment. This is where the need for assistance to returning emigrants arises. The fact that such an important centre of assistance has been closed is further confirmation of the still prevailing politics of ambiguity which nominally demand integration from nationals and non-nationals alike but deny the means of achieving this. Citizenship is not a natural result of nationality but requires the means for active participation in society. Furthermore, the experiences of returning immigrants provide important cues for the double ambivalence in which immigrants to Italy live between the demands made on them to integrate, the simultaneous threats of repatriation and the alienation from the immigrants’ home country which grows inexorably during the absence. The state can only regain its credibility by putting an end to this ambiguity and provide to returning emigrants, and immigrants alike, the means of reconstructing strong communal identities.

Plurilingual Interpretation in WTO Panel and Appellate Body Reports

This article analyzes the extent to which the Appellate Body and WTO panels compare the authentic texts in their examination of the WTO Agreements and the extent to which the parties themselves do so in their arguments. The texts of the WTO Agreements are authentic in English, French and Spanish. Article 33 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties governs the interpretation of treaties authenticated in two or more languages. WTO practice diverges significantly from the rules set out in Article 33 and the travaux préparatoires of the International Law Commission. The terms of a plurilingual treaty are presumed to have the same meaning in each authentic text, which means that a treaty interpreter need not compare the authentic texts as a routine matter as a matter of law. Nevertheless, routine comparison of authentic texts would be good practice in the WTO context, since there are several discrepancies that could affect the interpretation of WTO provisions.

Cohort study of trials submitted to ethics committee identified discrepant reporting of outcomes in publications

OBJECTIVES To identify factors associated with discrepant outcome reporting in randomized drug trials. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING Cohort study of protocols submitted to a Swiss ethics committee 1988-1998: 227 protocols and amendments were compared with 333 matching articles published during 1990-2008. Discrepant reporting was defined as addition, omission, or reclassification of outcomes. RESULTS Overall, 870 of 2,966 unique outcomes were reported discrepantly (29.3%). Among protocol-defined primary outcomes, 6.9% were not reported (19 of 274), whereas 10.4% of reported outcomes (30 of 288) were not defined in the protocol. Corresponding percentages for secondary outcomes were 19.0% (284 of 1,495) and 14.1% (334 of 2,375). Discrepant reporting was more likely if P values were <0.05 compared with P ≥ 0.05 [adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.38; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.07, 1.78], more likely for efficacy compared with harm outcomes (aOR: 2.99; 95% CI: 2.08, 4.30) and more likely for composite than for single outcomes (aOR: 1.48; 95% CI: 1.00, 2.20). Cardiology (aOR: 2.34; 95% CI: 1.44, 3.79) and infectious diseases (aOR: 1.77; 95% CI: 1.01, 3.13) had more discrepancies compared with all specialties combined. CONCLUSION Discrepant reporting was associated with statistical significance of results, type of outcome, and specialty area. Trial protocols should be made freely available, and the publications should describe and justify any changes made to protocol-defined outcomes.

Phylogeny of the family Pasteurellaceae based on rpoB sequences

Sequences of the gene encoding the beta-subunit of the RNA polymerase (rpoB) were used to delineate the phylogeny of the family Pasteurellaceae. A total of 72 strains, including the type strains of the major described species as well as selected field isolates, were included in the study. Selection of universal rpoB-derived primers for the family allowed straightforward amplification and sequencing of a 560 bp fragment of the rpoB gene. In parallel, 16S rDNA was sequenced from all strains. The phylogenetic tree obtained with the rpoB sequences reflected the major branches of the tree obtained with the 16S rDNA, especially at the genus level. Only a few discrepancies between the trees were observed. In certain cases the rpoB phylogeny was in better agreement with DNA-DNA hybridization studies than the phylogeny derived from 16S rDNA. The rpoB gene is strongly conserved within the various species of the family of Pasteurellaceae. Hence, rpoB gene sequence analysis in conjunction with 16S rDNA sequencing is a valuable tool for phylogenetic studies of the Pasteurellaceae and may also prove useful for reorganizing the current taxonomy of this bacterial family.

Investigating the consistency between proxy-based reconstructions and climate models using data assimilation: a mid-Holocene case study

The mid-Holocene (6 kyr BP; thousand years before present) is a key period to study the consistency between model results and proxy-based reconstruction data as it corresponds to a standard test for models and a reasonable number of proxy-based records is available. Taking advantage of this relatively large amount of information, we have compared a compilation of 50 air and sea surface temperature reconstructions with the results of three simulations performed with general circulation models and one carried out with LOVECLIM, a model of intermediate complexity. The conclusions derived from this analysis confirm that models and data agree on the large-scale spatial pattern but the models underestimate the magnitude of some observed changes and that large discrepancies are observed at the local scale. To further investigate the origin of those inconsistencies, we have constrained LOVECLIM to follow the signal recorded by the proxies selected in the compilation using a data-assimilation method based on a particle filter. In one simulation, all the 50 proxy-based records are used while in the other two only the continental or oceanic proxy-based records constrain the model results. As expected, data assimilation leads to improving the consistency between model results and the reconstructions. In particular, this is achieved in a robust way in all the experiments through a strengthening of the westerlies at midlatitude that warms up northern Europe. Furthermore, the comparison of the LOVECLIM simulations with and without data assimilation has also objectively identified 16 proxy-based paleoclimate records whose reconstructed signal is either incompatible with the signal recorded by some other proxy-based records or with model physics.

Charm mass effects in bulk channel correlations

The bulk viscosity of thermalized QCD matter at temperatures above a few hundred MeV could be significantly influenced by charm quarks because their contribution arises four perturbative orders before purely gluonic effects. In an attempt to clarify the challenges of a lattice study, we determine the relevant imaginary-time correlator (of massive scalar densities) up to NLO in perturbation theory, and compare with existing data. We find discrepancies much larger than in the vector channel; this may hint, apart from the importance of taking a continuum limit, to larger non-perturbative effects in the scalar channel. We also recall how a transport peak related to the scalar density spectral function encodes non-perturbative information concerning the charm quark chemical equilibration rate close to equilibrium.

Learning by the Dendritic Prediction of Somatic Spiking

Recent modeling of spike-timing-dependent plasticity indicates that plasticity involves as a third factor a local dendritic potential, besides pre- and postsynaptic firing times. We present a simple compartmental neuron model together with a non-Hebbian, biologically plausible learning rule for dendritic synapses where plasticity is modulated by these three factors. In functional terms, the rule seeks to minimize discrepancies between somatic firings and a local dendritic potential. Such prediction errors can arise in our model from stochastic fluctuations as well as from synaptic input, which directly targets the soma. Depending on the nature of this direct input, our plasticity rule subserves supervised or unsupervised learning. When a reward signal modulates the learning rate, reinforcement learning results. Hence a single plasticity rule supports diverse learning paradigms.

A case of distinct difference between the measured blood Ethanol concentration and the concentration estimated by Widmark's equation

In the last century, several mathematical models have been developed to calculate blood ethanol concentrations (BAC) from the amount of ingested ethanol and vice versa. The most common one in the field of forensic sciences is Widmark's equation. A drinking experiment with 10 voluntary test persons was performed with a target BAC of 1.2 g/kg estimated using Widmark's equation as well as Watson's factor. The ethanol concentrations in the blood were measured using headspace gas chromatography/flame ionization and additionally with an alcohol Dehydrogenase (ADH)-based method. In a healthy 75-year-old man a distinct discrepancy between the intended and the determined blood ethanol concentration was observed. A blood ethanol concentration of 1.83 g/kg was measured and the man showed signs of intoxication. A possible explanation for the discrepancy is a reduction of the total body water content in older people. The incident showed that caution is advised when using the different mathematical models in aged people. When estimating ethanol concentrations, caution is recommended with calculated results due to potential discrepancies between mathematical models and biological systems

Measurement of structural anisotropy in femoral trabecular bone using clinical-resolution CT images

Discrepancies in finite-element model predictions of bone strength may be attributed to the simplified modeling of bone as an isotropic structure due to the resolution limitations of clinical-level Computed Tomography (CT) data. The aim of this study is to calculate the preferential orientations of bone (the principal directions) and the extent to which bone is deposited more in one direction compared to another (degree of anisotropy). Using 100 femoral trabecular samples, the principal directions and degree of anisotropy were calculated with a Gradient Structure Tensor (GST) and a Sobel Structure Tensor (SST) using clinical-level CT. The results were compared against those calculated with the gold standard Mean-Intercept-Length (MIL) fabric tensor using micro-CT. There was no significant difference between the GST and SST in the calculation of the main principal direction (median error=28°), and the error was inversely correlated to the degree of transverse isotropy (r=−0.34, p<0.01). The degree of anisotropy measured using the structure tensors was weakly correlated with the MIL-based measurements (r=0.2, p<0.001). Combining the principal directions with the degree of anisotropy resulted in a significant increase in the correlation of the tensor distributions (r=0.79, p<0.001). Both structure tensors were robust against simulated noise, kernel sizes, and bone volume fraction. We recommend the use of the GST because of its computational efficiency and ease of implementation. This methodology has the promise to predict the structural anisotropy of bone in areas with a high degree of anisotropy, and may improve the in vivo characterization of bone.

REE and Hf distribution among mineral phases in the CV-CK clan : a way to explain present-day Hf isotopic variations in chondrites

Chondrites are among the most primitive objects in the Solar System and constitute the main building blocks of telluric planets. Among the radiochronometers currently used for dating geological events, Sm–Nd and Lu–Hf are both composed of refractory, lithophile element. They are thought to behave similarly as the parent elements (Sm and Lu) are generally less incompatible than the daughter elements (Nd and Hf) during geological processes. As such, their respective average isotopic compositions for the solar system should be well defined by the average of chondrites, called Chondritic Uniform Reservoir (CHUR). However, while the Sm–Nd isotopic system shows an actual spread of less than 4% in the average chondritic record, the Lu–Hf system shows a larger variation range of 28% [Bouvier A., Vervoort J. D. and Patchett P. J. (2008) The Lu–Hf and Sm–Nd isotopic composition of CHUR: Constraints from unequilibrated chondrites and implications for the bulk composition of terrestrial planets. Earth Planet. Sci. Lett.273, 48–57]. To better understand the contrast between Sm–Nd and Lu–Hf systems, the REE and Hf distribution among mineral phases during metamorphism of Karoonda (CK) and Vigarano-type (CV) carbonaceous chondrites has been examined. Mineral modes were determined from elemental mapping on a set of five CK chondrites (from types 3–6) and one CV3 chondrite. Trace-element patterns are obtained for the first time in all the chondrite-forming minerals of a given class (CK chondrites) as well as one CV3 sample. This study reveals that REE are distributed among both phosphates and silicates. Only 30–50% of Sm and Nd are stored in phosphates (at least in chondrites types 3–5); as such, they are not mobilized during early stages of metamorphism. The remaining fraction of Sm and Nd is distributed among the same mineral phases; these elements are therefore not decoupled during metamorphism. Of the whole-rock total of Lu, the fraction held in phosphate decreases significantly as the degree of metamorphism increases (30% for types 3 and 4, less than 5% in type 6). In contrast to Lu, Hf is mainly hosted by silicates with little contribution from phosphates throughout the CK metamorphic sequence. A significant part of Sm and Nd are stored in phosphates in types 3–5, and these elements behave similarly during CK chondrite metamorphism. That explains the robustness of the Sm/Nd ratios in chondrites through metamorphism, and the slight discrepancies observed in the present-day isotopic Nd values in chondrites. On the contrary, Lu and Hf are borne by several different minerals and consequently they are redistributed during metamorphism–induced recrystallization. The Lu/Hf ratios are therefore significantly disturbed during chondrites metamorphism, leading to the high discrepancies observed in present-day Hf isotopic values in chondrites.

Geochemical synthesis for the Effingen Member in boreholes at Oftringen, Gösgen and Küttigen

The Effingen Member is a low-permeability rock unit of Oxfordian age (ca. 160 Ma) that occurs across northern Switzerland. It comprises sandy calcareous marls and (argillaceous) limestones. This report describes the hydrogeochemistry, mineralogy and supporting physical properties of the Effingen Member in three boreholes in the Jura-Südfuss area: Oftringen, Gösgen and Küttigen, where it is 220–240 m thick. The top of the Effingen Member is at 420, 66 and 32 m depths at the three sites. Core materials are available from Oftringen and Gösgen, whereas information from Küttigen is limited to cuttings, in-situ hydrogeological testing and geophysical logging. Hydrogeological boundaries of the Effingen Member vary between locations. Ground-water flows were identified during drilling at the top (Geissberg Member), but not at the base, of the Effingen Member at Oftringen, at the base (Hauptrogenstein Formation) of the Effingen Member at Gösgen, and in a limestone layer (Gerstenhübel unit) within the Effingen Member at Küttigen. The marls and limestones of the Effingen Member have carbonate contents of 46–91 wt.-% and clay-mineral contents of 5–37 wt.-%. Pyrite contents are up to 1.6 wt.-%, but no sulphate minerals were detected by routine analyses. Clay minerals are predominantly mixed-layer illite-smectite, illite and kaolinite, with sporadic traces of chlorite and smectite. Veins filled with calcite ± celestite occur through the Effingen Member at Oftringen but not at Gösgen or Küttigen. They formed at 50–70 ºC from externally derived fluids, probably of Miocene age. Water contents are 0.7–4.2 wt.-%, corresponding to a water-loss porosity range of 1.9–10.8 vol.-%. Specific surface areas, measured by the BET method, are 2–30 m2/g, correlating with clay-mineral contents. Water activity has been measured and yielded surprisingly low values down to 0.8. These cannot be explained by pore-water salinity alone and include other effects, such as changes in the fabric due to stress release or partial saturation. Observed variations in measurements are not fully understood. Cation exchange capacity (CEC) and exchangeable cation populations have been studied by the Ni-en method. CEC, derived from the consumption of the index cation Ni, is 9–99 meq/kgrock at a solid:liquid ratio of 1, correlating with the clay-mineral content. Cation concentrations in Ni-en extract solutions are in the order Na+≥Ca2+>Mg2+>K+>Sr2+. However, the analytical results from the Ni-en extractions have additional contributions from cations originating from pore water and from mineral dissolution reactions that occurred during extraction, and it was not possible to reliably quantify these contributions. Therefore, in-situ cation populations and selectivity coefficients could not be derived. A suite of methods have been used for characterising the chemical compositions of pore waters in the Effingen Member. Advective displacement was used on one sample from each Oftringen and Gösgen and is the only method that produces results that approach complete hydrochemical compositions. Aqueous extraction was used on core samples from these two boreholes and gives data only for Cl- and, in some cases, Br-. Out-diffusion was used on core samples from Oftringen and similarly gives data for Cl- and Br- only. For both aqueous extraction and out-diffusion, reaction of the experimental water with rock affected concentrations of cations, SO42 and alkalinity in experimental solutions. Another method, centrifugation, failed to extract pore water. Stable isotope ratios (δ18O and δ2H) of pore waters in core samples from Oftringen were analysed by the diffusive exchange method and helium contents of pore water in Oftringen samples were extracted for mass spectrometric analysis by quantitative outgassing of preserved core samples. Several lines of evidence indicate that drillcore samples might not have been fully saturated when opened and subsampled in the laboratory. These include comparisons of water-loss porosities with physical porosities, water-activity measurements, and high contents of dissolved gas as inferred from ground-water samples. There is no clear proof of partial saturation and it is unclear whether this might represent in-situ conditions or is due to exsolution of gas due to the pressure release since drilling. Partial saturation would have no impact on the recalculation of pore-water compositions from aqueous extraction experiments using water-loss porosity data. The largest uncertainty in the pore-water Cl- concentrations recalculated from aqueous extraction and out-diffusion experiments is the magnitude of the anion-accessible fraction of water-loss porosity. General experience of clay-mineral rich formations suggests that the anion-accessible porosity fraction is very often about 0.5 and generally in a range of 0.3 to 0.6 and tends to be inversely correlated with clay-mineral contents. Comparisons of the Cl- concentration in pore water obtained by advective displacement with that recalculated from aqueous extraction of an adjacent core sample suggests a fraction of 0.27 for an Oftringen sample, whereas the same procedure for a Gösgen sample suggests a value of 0.64. The former value for anion-accessible porosity fraction is presumed to be unrepresentative given the local mineralogical heterogeneity at that depth. Through-diffusion experiments with HTO and 36Cl- suggest that the anion-accessible porosity fraction in the Effingen Member at Oftringen and Gösgen is around 0.5. This value is proposed as a typical average for rocks of the Effingen Member, bearing in mind that it varies on a local scale in response to the heterogeneity of lithology and pore-space architecture. The substantial uncertainties associated with the approaches to estimating anion-accessible porosity propagate into the calculated values of in-situ pore-water Cl- concentrations. On the basis of aqueous extraction experiments, and using an anion-accessible porosity fraction of 0.5, Cl- concentrations in the Effingen Member at Oftringen reach a maximum of about 14 g/L in the centre. Cl- decreases upwards and downwards from that, forming a curved depth profile. Cl- contents in the Effingen Member at Gösgen increase with depth from about 3.5 g/L to about 14 g/L at the base of the cored profile (which corresponds to the centre of the formation). Out-diffusion experiments were carried out on four samples from Oftringen, distributed through the Effingen Member. Recalculated Cl- concentrations are similar to those from aqueous extraction for 3 out of the 4 samples, and somewhat lower for one sample. Concentrations of other components, i.e. Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, Sr2+, SO42- and HCO3- cannot be obtained from the aqueous extraction and out-diffusion experimental data because of mineral dissolution and cation exchange reactions during the experiments. Pore-water pH also is not constrained by those extraction experiments. The only experimental approach to obtain complete pore-water compositions for samples from Oftringen and Gösgen is advective displacement of pore water. The sample from Oftringen used for this experiment is from 445 m depth in the upper part of the Effingen Member and gave eluate with 16.5 g/L Cl- whereas aqueous extraction from a nearby sample indicated about 9 g/L Cl-. The sample from Gösgen used for advective displacement is from 123 m depth in the centre of the Effingen Member sequence and gave eluate with about 9 g/L Cl- whereas aqueous extraction gave 11.5 g/L Cl-. In both cases the pore waters have Na-(Ca)-Cl compositions and SO42- concentrations of about 1.1 g/L. The Gösgen sample has a Br/Cl ratio similar to that of sea water, whereas this ratio is lower for the Oftringen sample. Taking account of uncertainties in the applied experimental approaches, it is reasonable to place an upper limit of ca. 20 g/L on Cl- concentration for pore water in the Effingen Member in this area. There are major discrepancies between pore-water SO42- concentrations inferred from aqueous extraction or out-diffusion experiments and those obtained from advective displacement in both the Oftringen and Gösgen cases. A general conclusion is that all or at least part of the discrepancies are attributable to perturbation of the sulphur system and enhancement of SO42- by sulphate mineral dissolution and possibly minor pyrite oxidation during aqueous extraction and out-diffusion. Therefore, data for SO42- calculated from those pore-water sampling methods are considered not to be representative of in-situ conditions. A reference pore-water composition was defined for the Effingen Member in the Jura Südfuss area. It represents the probable upper limits of Cl- contents and corresponding anion and cation concentrations that are reasonably constrained by experimental data. Except for Cl- and possibly Na+ concentrations, this composition is poorly constrained especially with respect to SO42- and Ca2+ concentrations, and pH and alkalinity. Stable isotope compositions, δ18O and δ2H, of pore waters in the Effingen Member at Oftringen plot to the right of the meteoric water line, suggesting that 18O has been enriched by water-rock exchange, which indicates that the pore waters have a long residence time. A long residence time of pore water is supported by the level of dissolved 4He that has accumulated in pore water of the Effingen Member at Oftringen. This is comparable with, or slightly higher than, the amounts of 4He in the Opalinus Clay at Benken. Ground waters were sampled from flowing zones intersected by boreholes at the three locations. The general interpretation is that pore waters and ground-water solutes may have similar origins in Mesozoic and Cenozoic brackish-marine formations waters, but ground-water solutes have been diluted rather more than pore waters by ingress of Tertiary and Quaternary meteoric waters. The available hydrochemical data for pore waters from the Effingen Member at these three locations in the Jura-Südfuss area suggest that the geochemical system evolved slowly over geological periods of time, in which diffusion was an important mechanism of solute transport. The irregularity of Cl- and δ18O profiles and spatial variability of advective ground-water flows in the Malm-Dogger system suggests that palaeohydrogeological and hydrochemical responses to changing tectonic and surface environmental conditions were complex.

Large-scale temperature response to external forcing in simulations and reconstructions of the last millennium

Understanding natural climate variability and its driving factors is crucial to assessing future climate change. Therefore, comparing proxy-based climate reconstructions with forcing factors as well as comparing these with paleoclimate model simulations is key to gaining insights into the relative roles of internal versus forced variability. A review of the state of modelling of the climate of the last millennium prior to the CMIP5–PMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5–Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3) coordinated effort is presented and compared to the available temperature reconstructions. Simulations and reconstructions broadly agree on reproducing the major temperature changes and suggest an overall linear response to external forcing on multidecadal or longer timescales. Internal variability is found to have an important influence at hemispheric and global scales. The spatial distribution of simulated temperature changes during the transition from the Medieval Climate Anomaly to the Little Ice Age disagrees with that found in the reconstructions. Thus, either internal variability is a possible major player in shaping temperature changes through the millennium or the model simulations have problems realistically representing the response pattern to external forcing. A last millennium transient climate response (LMTCR) is defined to provide a quantitative framework for analysing the consistency between simulated and reconstructed climate. Beyond an overall agreement between simulated and reconstructed LMTCR ranges, this analysis is able to single out specific discrepancies between some reconstructions and the ensemble of simulations. The disagreement is found in the cases where the reconstructions show reduced covariability with external forcings or when they present high rates of temperature change.