The Madden-Julian Oscillation and the diurnal cycle over the Maritime Continent: scale interactions and modelling

The Maritime Continent archipelago, situated on the equator at 95-165E, has the strongest land-based precipitation on Earth. The latent heat release associated with the rainfall affects the atmospheric circulation throughout the tropics and into the extra-tropics. The greatest source of variability in precipitation is the diurnal cycle. The archipelago is within the convective region of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), which provides the greatest variability on intra-seasonal time scales: large-scale (∼10^7 km^2) active and suppressed convective envelopes propagate slowly (∼5 m s^-1) eastwards between the Indian and Pacific Oceans. High-resolution satellite data show that a strong diurnal cycle is triggered to the east of the advancing MJO envelope, leading the active MJO by one-eighth of an MJO cycle (∼6 days). Where the diurnal cycle is strong its modulation accounts for 81% of the variability in MJO precipitation. Over land this determines the structure of the diagnosed MJO. This is consistent with the equatorial wave dynamics in existing theories of MJO propagation. The MJO also affects the speed of gravity waves propagating offshore from the Maritime Continent islands. This is largely consistent with changes in static stability during the MJO cycle. The MJO and its interaction with the diurnal cycle are investigated in HiGEM, a high-resolution coupled model. Unlike many models, HiGEM represents the MJO well with eastward-propagating variability on intra-seasonal time scales at the correct zonal wavenumber, although the inter-tropical convergence zone's precipitation peaks strongly at the wrong time, interrupting the MJO's spatial structure. However, the modelled diurnal cycle is too weak and its phase is too early over land. The modulation of the diurnal amplitude by the MJO is also too weak and accounts for only 51% of the variability in MJO precipitation. Implications for forecasting and possible causes of the model errors are discussed, and further modelling studies are proposed.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Linking hindcast fidelity to simulated diabatic heating and moistening

Many theories for the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) focus on diabatic processes, particularly the evolution of vertical heating and moistening. Poor MJO performance in weather and climate models is often blamed on biases in these processes and their interactions with the large-scale circulation. We introduce one of three components of a model-evaluation project, which aims to connect MJO fidelity in models to their representations of several physical processes, focusing on diabatic heating and moistening. This component consists of 20-day hindcasts, initialised daily during two MJO events in winter 2009-10. The 13 models exhibit a range of skill: several have accurate forecasts to 20 days' lead, while others perform similarly to statistical models (8-11 days). Models that maintain the observed MJO amplitude accurately predict propagation, but not vice versa. We find no link between hindcast fidelity and the precipitation-moisture relationship, in contrast to other recent studies. There is also no relationship between models' performance and the evolution of their diabatic-heating profiles with rain rate. A more robust association emerges between models' fidelity and net moistening: the highest-skill models show a clear transition from low-level moistening for light rainfall to mid-level moistening at moderate rainfall and upper-level moistening for heavy rainfall. The mid-level moistening, arising from both dynamics and physics, may be most important. Accurately representing many processes may be necessary, but not sufficient for capturing the MJO, which suggests that models fail to predict the MJO for a broad range of reasons and limits the possibility of finding a panacea.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: exploring key model physics in climate simulations

Aimed at reducing deficiencies in representing the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in general circulation models (GCMs), a global model evaluation project on vertical structure and physical processes of the MJO was coordinated. In this paper, results from the climate simulation component of this project are reported. It is shown that the MJO remains a great challenge in these latest generation GCMs. The systematic eastward propagation of the MJO is only well simulated in about one-fourth of the total participating models. The observed vertical westward tilt with altitude of the MJO is well simulated in good MJO models, but not in the poor ones. Damped Kelvin wave responses to the east of convection in the lower troposphere could be responsible for the missing MJO preconditioning process in these poor MJO models. Several process-oriented diagnostics were conducted to discriminate key processes for realistic MJO simulations. While large-scale rainfall partition and low-level mean zonal winds over the Indo-Pacific in a model are not found to be closely associated with its MJO skill, two metrics, including the low-level relative humidity difference between high and low rain events and seasonal mean gross moist stability, exhibit statistically significant correlations with the MJO performance. It is further indicated that increased cloud-radiative feedback tends to be associated with reduced amplitude of intraseasonal variability, which is incompatible with the radiative instability theory previously proposed for the MJO. Results in this study confirm that inclusion of air-sea interaction can lead to significant improvement in simulating the MJO.

Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian oscillation: Biases and uncertainties at short range

An analysis of diabatic heating and moistening processes from 12-36 hour lead time forecasts from 12 Global Circulation Models are presented as part of the "Vertical structure and physical processes of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO)" project. A lead time of 12-36 hours is chosen to constrain the large scale dynamics and thermodynamics to be close to observations while avoiding being too close to the initial spin-up for the models as they adjust to being driven from the YOTC analysis. A comparison of the vertical velocity and rainfall with the observations and YOTC analysis suggests that the phases of convection associated with the MJO are constrained in most models at this lead time although the rainfall in the suppressed phase is typically overestimated. Although the large scale dynamics is reasonably constrained, moistening and heating profiles have large inter-model spread. In particular, there are large spreads in convective heating and moistening at mid-levels during the transition to active convection. Radiative heating and cloud parameters have the largest relative spread across models at upper levels during the active phase. A detailed analysis of time step behaviour shows that some models show strong intermittency in rainfall and differences in the precipitation and dynamics relationship between models. The wealth of model outputs archived during this project is a very valuable resource for model developers beyond the study of the MJO. In addition, the findings of this study can inform the design of process model experiments, and inform the priorities for field experiments and future observing systems.

CDASH: a cloud-enabled program for structure solution from powder diffraction data

The simulated annealing approach to crystal structure determination from powder diffraction data, as implemented in the DASH program, is readily amenable to parallelization at the individual run level. Very large scale increases in speed of execution can be achieved by distributing individual DASH runs over a network of computers. The CDASH program delivers this by using scalable on-demand computing clusters built on the Amazon Elastic Compute Cloud service. By way of example, a 360 vCPU cluster returned the crystal structure of racemic ornidazole (Z0 = 3, 30 degrees of freedom) ca 40 times faster than a typical modern quad-core desktop CPU. Whilst used here specifically for DASH, this approach is of general applicability to other packages that are amenable to coarse-grained parallelism strategies.

New perspectives on the synoptic and mesoscale structure of Hurricane Catarina

This work explores in detail synoptic and mesoscale features of Hurricane Catarina during its life cycle from a decaying baroclinic wave to a tropical depression that underwent tropical transition (TT) and finally to a Category 2 hurricane at landfall over Santa Catarina State coast, southern Brazil. This unique system caused 11 deaths mostly off the Brazilian coast and an estimated half billion dollars in damage in a matter of a few hours on 28 March 2004. Although the closest meteorological station available was tens of kilometres away from the eye, in situ meteorological measurements provided by a work-team sent to the area where the eye made landfall unequivocally reproduces the tropical signature with category 2 strength, adding to previous analysis where this data was not available. Further analyses are based mostly on remote sensing data available at the time of the event. A classic dipole blocking set synoptic conditions for Hurricane Catarina to develop, dynamically contributing to the low wind shear observed. On the other hand, on its westward transit, large scale subsidence limited its strength and vertical development. Catarina had relatively cool SST conditions, but this was mitigated by favourable air-sea fluxes leading to latent heat release-driven processes during the mature phase. The ocean`s dynamic topography also suggested the presence of nearby warm core rings which may have facilitated the transition and post-transition intensification. Since there were no records of such a system at least in the past 30 years and given that SSTs were generally below 26 degrees C and vertical shear was usually strong, despite all satellite data available, the system was initially classified as an extratropical cyclone. Here we hypothesise that this categorization was based oil inadequate regional scale model outputs which did not account for the importance of the latent heat fluxes over the ocean. Hurricane Catarina represents a dramatic event on weather systems in South America. It has attracted attention worldwide and poses questions as whether or not it is a symptom of global warming. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Particle acceleration and magnetic field structure in PKS 2155-304: optical polarimetric observations

In this paper, we present multiband optical polarimetric observations of the very-high energy blazar PKS 2155-304 made simultaneously with a HESS/Fermi high-energy campaign in 2008, when the source was found to be in a low state. The intense daily coverage of the data set allowed us to study in detail the temporal evolution of the emission, and we found that the particle acceleration time-scales are decoupled from the changes in the polarimetric properties of the source. We present a model in which the optical polarimetric emission originates at the polarized mm-wave core and propose an explanation for the lack of correlation between the photometric and polarimetric fluxes. The optical emission is consistent with an inhomogeneous synchrotron source in which the large-scale field is locally organized by a shock in which particle acceleration takes place. Finally, we use these optical polarimetric observations of PKS 2155-304 at a low state to propose an origin for the quiescent gamma-ray flux of the object, in an attempt to provide clues for the source of its recently established persistent TeV emission.

Functional and historical determinants of shape in the scapula of Xenarthran mammals: Evolution of a complex morphological structure

The mammalian scapula is a complex morphological structure, composed of two ossification plates that fuse into a single structure. Most studies on morphological differentiation in the scapula have considered it to be a simple, spatially integrated structure, primarily influenced by the important locomotor function presented by this element. We used recently developed geometric morphometric techniques to test and quantify functional and phylogenetic influences on scapular shape variation in fossil and extant xenarthran mammals. The order Xenarthra is well represented in the fossil record and presents a stable phylogenetic hypothesis for its genealogical history. In addition, its species present a large variety of locomotor habits. Our results show that approximately half of the shape variation in the scapula is due to phylogenetic heritage. This is contrary to the view that the scapula is influenced only by functional demands. There are large-scale shape transformations that provide biomechanical adaptation for the several habits (arboreality, terrestriality, and digging), and small scale-shape transformations (mostly related to the coracoid process) that are not influenced by function. A nonlinear relationship between morphometric and phylogenetic distances indicates the presence of a complex mixture of evolutionary processes acting on shape differentiation of the scapula. J. Morphol. 241,251-263, 1999. (C) 1999 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Small-scale mining: a new entrepreneurial approach

Includes bibliography

Revisiting AFLP fingerprinting for an unbiased assessment of genetic structure and differentiation of taurine and zebu cattle

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Social cohesion among kin, gene flow without dispersal and the evolution of population genetic structure in the killer whale (Orcinus orca)

In social species, breeding system and gregarious behavior are key factors influencing the evolution of large-scale population genetic structure. The killer whale is a highly social apex predator showing genetic differentiation in sympatry between populations of foraging specialists (ecotypes), and low levels of genetic diversity overall. Our comparative assessments of kinship, parentage and dispersal reveal high levels of kinship within local populations and ongoing male-mediated gene flow among them, including among ecotypes that are maximally divergent within the mtDNA phylogeny. Dispersal from natal populations was rare, implying that gene flow occurs without dispersal, as a result of reproduction during temporary interactions. Discordance between nuclear and mitochondrial phylogenies was consistent with earlier studies suggesting a stochastic basis for the magnitude of mtDNA differentiation between matrilines. Taken together our results show how the killer whale breeding system, coupled with social, dispersal and foraging behaviour, contributes to the evolution of population genetic structure.

Landscape-Genetic Analysis of Population Structure in the Texas Gray Fox Oral Rabies Vaccination Zone

In west-central Texas, USA, abatement efforts for the gray fox (Urocyon cinereoargenteus) rabies epizootic illustrate the difficulties inherent in large-scale management of wildlife disease. The rabies epizootic has been managed through a cooperative oral rabies vaccination program (ORV) since 1996. Millions of edible baits containing a rabies vaccine have been distributed annually in a 16-km to 24-km zone around the perimeter of the epizootic, which encompasses a geographic area >4 x 105 km2. The ORV program successfully halted expansion of the epizootic into metropolitan areas but has not achieved the ultimate goal of eradication. Rabies activity in gray fox continues to occur periodically outside the ORV zone, preventing ORV zone contraction and dissipation of the epizootic. We employed a landscape-genetic approach to assess gray fox population structure and dispersal in the affected area, with the aim of assisting rabies management efforts. No unique genetic clusters or population boundaries were detected. Instead, foxes were weakly structured over the entire region in an isolation by distance pattern. Local subpopulations appeared to be genetically non-independent over distances >30 km, implying that long-distance movements or dispersal may have been common in the region. We concluded that gray foxes in west-central Texas have a high potential for long-distance rabies virus trafficking. Thus, a 16-km to 24-km ORV zone may be too narrow to contain the fox rabies epizootic. Continued expansion of the ORV zone, although costly, may be critical to the long-term goal of eliminating the Texas fox rabies virus variant from the United States.

Reconnection current sheet structure in a turbulent medium

In the presence of turbulence, magnetic field lines lose their dynamical identity and particles entrained on field lines diffuse through space at a rate determined by the amplitude of the turbulence. In previous work (Lazarian and Vishniac, 1999; Kowal et al., 2009; Eyink et al., 2011) we showed that this leads to reconnection speeds which are independent of resistivity. In particular, in Kowal et al. (2009) we showed that numerical simulations were consistent with the predictions of this model. Here we examine the structure of the current sheet in simulations of turbulent reconnection. Laminar flows consistent with the Sweet-Parker reconnection model produce very thin and well ordered currents sheets. On the other hand, the simulations of Kowal et al. (2009) show a strongly disordered state even for relatively low levels of turbulence. Comparing data cubes with and without reconnection, we find that large scale field reversals are the cumulative effect of many individual eddies, each of which has magnetic properties which are not very different from turbulent eddies in a homogeneous background. This implies that the properties of stationary and homogeneous MHD turbulence are a reasonable guide to understanding turbulence during large scale magnetic reconnection events. In addition, dissipation and high energy particle acceleration during reconnection events take place over a macroscopic volume, rather than being confined to a narrow zone whose properties depend on microscopic transport coefficients.

Efficient Forest Data Structure for Evolutionary Algorithms Applied to Network Design

The design of a network is a solution to several engineering and science problems. Several network design problems are known to be NP-hard, and population-based metaheuristics like evolutionary algorithms (EAs) have been largely investigated for such problems. Such optimization methods simultaneously generate a large number of potential solutions to investigate the search space in breadth and, consequently, to avoid local optima. Obtaining a potential solution usually involves the construction and maintenance of several spanning trees, or more generally, spanning forests. To efficiently explore the search space, special data structures have been developed to provide operations that manipulate a set of spanning trees (population). For a tree with n nodes, the most efficient data structures available in the literature require time O(n) to generate a new spanning tree that modifies an existing one and to store the new solution. We propose a new data structure, called node-depth-degree representation (NDDR), and we demonstrate that using this encoding, generating a new spanning forest requires average time O(root n). Experiments with an EA based on NDDR applied to large-scale instances of the degree-constrained minimum spanning tree problem have shown that the implementation adds small constants and lower order terms to the theoretical bound.

Structure of the N=50 As, Ge, Ga nuclei

The level structures of the N = 50 As-83, Ge-82, and Ga-81 isotones have been investigated by means of multi-nucleon transfer reactions. A first experiment was performed with the CLARA PRISMA setup to identify these nuclei. A second experiment was carried out with the GASP array in order to deduce the gamma-ray coincidence information. The results obtained on the high-spin states of such nuclei are used to test the stability of the N = 50 shell closure in the region of Ni-78 (Z = 28). The comparison of the experimental level schemes with the shell-model calculations yields an N = 50 energy gap value of 4.7(3) MeV at Z = 28. This value, in a good agreement with the prediction of the finite-range liquid-drop model as well as with the recent large-scale shell model calculations, does not support a weakening of the N = 50 shell gap down to Z = 28. (c) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.