The use of expert systems for decision making in organizations

The research described in this thesis investigates three issues related to the use of expert systems for decision making in organizations. These are the effectiveness of ESs when used in different roles, to replace a human decision maker or to advise a human decision maker, the users' behaviourand opinions towards using an expertadvisory system and, the possibility of organization-wide deployment of expert systems and the role of an ES in different organizational levels. The research was based on the development of expert systems within a business game environment, a simulation of a manufacturing company. This was chosen to give more control over the `experiments' than would be possible in a real organization. An expert system (EXGAME) was developed based on a structure derived from Anthony's three levels of decision making to manage the simulated company in the business game itself with little user intervention. On the basis of EXGAME, an expert advisory system (ADGAME) was built to help game players to make better decisions in managing the game company. EXGAME and ADGAME are thus two expert systems in the same domain performing different roles; it was found that ADGAME had, in places, to be different from EXGAME, not simply an extension of it. EXGAME was tested several times against human rivals and was evaluated by measuring its performance. ADGAME was also tested by different users and was assessed by measuring the users' performance and analysing their opinions towards it as a helpful decision making aid. The results showed that an expert system was able to replace a human at the operational level, but had difficulty at the strategic level. It also showed the success of the organization-wide deployment of expert systems in this simulated company.

The computerisation of community pharmacy

Computers have, over the past 10 to 15 years, become an integral part of many activities carried out by British community pharmacists. This thesis employs quantitative and qualitative research methods to explore the use of computers and other forms of information technology (IT) in a number of these activities. Mail questionnaires were used to estimate the level of IT use among British community pharmacists in 1989 and 1990. Comparison of the results suggests that the percentage of community pharmacists using computers and other forms of IT is increasing, and that the range of applications to which pharmacy computers are put is expanding. The use of an electronic, on-line information service, PINS, by community pharmacists was investigated using mail questionnaires. The majority of community pharmacists who subscribed to the service, and who responded to the questionnaire, claimed to use PINS less than they had expected to. In addition, most did not find it user-friendly. A computer program to aid pharmacists when responding to their patients' symptoms was investigated using interviews and direct observation. The aid was not found to help pharmacists in responding to patients' symptoms because of impracticalities involved in its operation. Use of the same computer program by members of the public without the involvement of a pharmacist was also studied. In this setting, the program was favourably accepted by the majority of those who used it. Provision of computer generated information leaflets from pharmacies was investigated using mail questionnaires and interviews. The leaflets were found to be popular with the majority of recipients interviewed. Since starting to give out the leaflets, 27 out of 55 pharmacists who responded to the questionnaire had experienced an increase in the numbers of prescriptions they dispensed. 46 had experienced an increase in the number of patient enquiries they received.

The appraisal and management of multi-storey dwelling blocks using large concrete panel systems

This exploratory study is concerned with the integrated appraisal of multi-storey dwelling blocks which incorporate large concrete panel systems (LPS). The first step was to look at U.K. multi-storey dwelling stock in general, and under the management of Birmingham City Council in particular. The information has been taken from the databases of three departments in the City of Birmingham, and rearranged in a new database using a suite of PC software called `PROXIMA' for clarity and analysis. One hundred of their stock were built large concrete panel system. Thirteen LPS blocks were chosen for the purpose of this study as case-studies depending mainly on the height and age factors of the block. A new integrated appraisal technique has been created for the LPS dwelling blocks, which takes into account the most physical and social factors affecting the condition and acceptability of these blocks. This appraisal technique is built up in a hierarchical form moving from the general approach to particular elements (a tree model). It comprises two main approaches; physical and social. In the physical approach, the building is viewed as a series of manageable elements and sub-elements to cover every single physical or environmental factor of the block, in which the condition of the block is analysed. A quality score system has been developed which depends mainly on the qualitative and quantitative conditions of each category in the appraisal tree model, and leads to physical ranking order of the study blocks. In the social appraisal approach, the residents' satisfaction and attitude toward their multi-storey dwelling block was analysed in relation to: a. biographical and housing related characteristics; and b. social, physical and environmental factors associated with this sort of dwelling, block and estate in general.The random sample consisted of 268 residents living in the 13 case study blocks. Data collected was analysed using frequency counts, percentages, means, standard deviations, Kendall's tue, r-correlation coefficients, t-test, analysis of variance (ANOVA) and multiple regression analysis. The analysis showed a marginally positive satisfaction and attitude towards living in the block. The five most significant factors associated with the residents' satisfaction and attitude in descending order were: the estate, in general; the service categories in the block, including heating system and lift services; vandalism; the neighbours; and the security system of the block. An important attribute of this method, is that it is relatively inexpensive to implement, especially when compared to alternatives adopted by some local authorities and the BRE. It is designed to save time, money and effort, to aid decision making, and to provide ranked priority to the multi-storey dwelling stock, in addition to many other advantages. A series of solution options to the problems of the block was sought for selection and testing before implementation. The traditional solutions have usually resulted in either demolition or costly physical maintenance and social improvement of the blocks. However, a new solution has now emerged, which is particularly suited to structurally sound units. The solution of `re-cycling' might incorporate the reuse of an entire block or part of it, by removing panels, slabs and so forth from the upper floors in order to reconstruct them as low-rise accommodations.

The diagenesis and palaeomagnetism of permian and triassic sediments from central Spain

Detailed diagenetic and palaeomagnetic studies have been made of Permian and Triassic rocks from the Iberian Cordillera, Spain. Five stratigraphical units comprising the Autunian, Saxonian, Buntsandstein, Muschelkalk, and Keuper have been studied in a number of sections which have been well documented sedimentologically. Autuninan rocks have a characteristic remanence which is exclusively reversed and corresponds to the Kiaman Interval. The pole position identified is consistent with previous studies, which indicate the rotation of Iberia in post-Triassic times. The Saxonian facies show complex multicomponent magnetizations; no polarity zonation can be resolved. The Buntsandstein is remarkable in that much of it is remagnetised in a direction similar to the present-day local geomagnetic field direction. The secondary remanence is carried by fine-grained haematite which has been formed as a result of carbonate dissolution associated with structural inversion of the Iberian Cordillera. Dating of diagenetic events associated with this remagnetization is also possible. Fragments of primary remanence are preserved in some fine-grained lithologies of the Buntsandstein. These indicate that normal and reversed zones of magnetization were originally present. The magnetization of the Muschelkalk and Keuper carbonates is also complex; secondary components similar to those of the Buntsandstein are present but there is evidence that primary components were predominantly normal during Karnian times.

The influence of the socio-educational reading environment in an Arab University upon English reading performance

Research into FL/EFL macro-reading (the effect of the broader context of reading) has been little explored in spite of its importance in the FL/EFL reading programmes. This study was designed to build on previous work by explaining in more depth the influence of the socio-educational reading environment in an Arab university (Al-Fateh University in Tripoli, Libya) - as reported by students, upon these students' reading ability in English and Arabic (particularly the former). Certain aspects of the lecturers' reading habits and attitudes and classroom operation were also investigated. Written cloze tests in English and Arabic and self-administered questionnaires were given to 125 preliminary-year undergraduates in three faculties of Al-Fateh University on the basis of their use of English as a medium of instruction (one representing the Arts' stream and two representing the Science stream). Twenty two lecturers were interviewed and observed by an inventory technique along with twenty other preliminary-year students. Factor analysis and standard multiple regression technique were among the statistical methods used to analyse the main data. The findings demonstrate a significant relationship between reading ability in English and the reading individual and environmental variables - as defined in the study. A combination of common and different series of such predictors were found accountable for the variation (43% for the first year English specialist; 48% for the combined Medicine student sample) in the English reading tests. Also found was a significant, though not very large, relationship between reading ability in Arabic and the reading environment. Non-statistical but objective analyses, based on the present data, also revealed an overall association between English reading performance and an important number of reading environmental variables - where many `poor' users of the reading environment (particularly the academic one) obtained low scores in the English cloze tests. Accepting the limitations of a single study, it is nevertheless clear that the reading environment at the University is in need of improvement and that students' use of it also requires better guidance and training in how to use it effectively. Suggestions are made for appropriate educational changes.

Guilty as charged? The effect of interpreting on interviews with suspects

The ways in which an interpreter affects the processes and, possibly, the outcomes of legal proceedings has formed the focus of much recent research, most of it centred upon courtroom discourse. However comparatively little research has been carried out into the effect of interpreting on the interview with a suspect, despite its 'upstream' position in the legal process and vital importance as evidence. As a speech event in the judicial system, the interview differs radically from that which takes place 'downstream', that is, in court. The interview with suspect represents an entirely different construct, in which a range of registers is apparent, and participants use distinctive means to achieve their institutional goals. When a transcript of an interpreter-mediated interview is read out in court, it is assumed that this is a representation of an event, which is essentially identical to a monolingual interview. This thesis challenges that assumption. Using conservation analytic techniques, it examines data from a corpus of monolingual and interpreter-mediated, taped interviews with suspects, in order to identify potentially significant interactional differences and describe ways in which the interpreter affects the processes and may affect the outcomes of the interview. It is argued that although individually, the interactional differences may appear slight, their cumulative effect is significant, particularly since the primary participants in the event are unaware of the full force of the interpreting effect. Finally, the thesis suggests that the insights provided by linguistic analysis of the interpreting on interviews may provide the basis for training, both for interpreters themselves, and for officers in techniques for interpreter-mediated interviews.

Social aspects of pharmaceutical innovation: heart disease

This study examines the invention, innovation, introduction and use of a new drug therapy for coronary heart disease and hypertension; beta-blockade. The relationships between drug introductions and changes in medical perceptions of disease are analysed, and the development and effects of our perception of heart disease through drug treatments and diagnostic technology is described. The first section looks at the evolution of hypertension from its origin as a kidney disorder, Bright's disease, to the introduction and use of effective drugs for its treatment. It is shown that this has been greatly influenced by the introduction of new medical technologies. A medical controversy over its nature is shown both to be strongly influenced by the use of new drugs, and to influence their subsequent use. The second section reviews the literature analysing drug innovation, and examines the innovation of the beta-blocking drugs, making extensive use of participant accounts. The way in which the development of receptor theory, the theoretical basis of the innovation,was influenced by the innovation and use of drugs is discussed, then the innovation at ICI, the introduction into clinical use, and the production of similar drugs by other manufacturers are described. A study of the effects of these drugs is then undertaken, concentrating on therapeutic costs and benefits, and changes in medical perceptions of disease. The third section analyses the effects of other drugs on heart disease, looking at changes in mortality statistics and in medical opinions. The study concludes that linking work on drug innovation with that on drug effects is fruitful, that new drugs and diagnostic technology have greatly influenced medical perceptions of the nature and extent of heart disease, and that in hypertension, the improvement in drug treatment will soon result in much of the population being defined as in need of it life-long.

The steady state performance of converter type reactive power compensators

As a source or sink of reactive power, compensators can be made from a voltage sourced inverter circuit with the a.c. terminals of the inverter connected to the system through an inductive link and with a capacitor connected across the d.c. terminals. Theoretical calculations on linearised models of the compensators have shown that the parameters characterising the performance are the reduced firing angle and the resonance ratio. The resonance ratio is the ratio of the natural frequency of oscillation of the energy storage components in the circuit to the system frequency. The reduced firing angle of the inverter divided by the damping coefficient, β, where β is half the R to X ratio of the link between the inverter and the system. The theoretical results have been verified by computer simulation and experiment. There is a narrow range of values for the resonance ratio below which there is no appreciable improvement in performance, despite an increase in the cost of the energy storage components, and above which the performance of the equipment is poor with the current being dominated by harmonics. The harmonic performance of the equipment is improved by using multiple inverters and phase shifting transformers to increase the pulse number. The optimum value of the resonance ratio increases pulse number, indicating a reduction in the energy storage components needed at high pulse numbers. The reactive power output from the compensator varies linearly with the reduced firing angle while the losses vary as the square of it.

Developing the public health function of locum pharmacists under the auspices of the new pharmacy contract

Focal Point - There are reduced opportunities for locum pharmacists to access training and education that meets their needs and enables them to play a full role under the new pharmacy contract - Eighty-six per cent of locums consider themselves to be more health professional than business person, compared to just 48% of pharmacy owners - Forty per cent of locums believe that a lack of access to training is a major barrier to the development of their public health function - While locum pharmacists are arguably more likely to embrace 'professionalising', patient-care-based roles, they are also the group least likely to be able to access the necessary training to fulfill such roles Introduction It has been suggested that locum pharmacists do not want the business-based responsibilities (e.g. staff management, meeting targets, etc) that come with pharmacy management.1 Research also suggests that locums derive great satisfaction from the health-professional aspects of the pharmacists’ role (e.g. patient contact, the provision of advice, etc).1 However, upon the introduction of the new pharmacy contract (April 2005), concerns were expressed that it was becoming increasingly difficult for locum pharmacists to access training and education that would meet their needs and enable them to play a full role under the new framework.2,3 Method After piloting, in August 2006 a self-completion postal questionnaire was sent to a random sample of practising community pharmacists, stratified for country and sex, within Great Britain (n = 1998), with a follow-up to non-responders 4 weeks later. Data were analysed using SPSS (v12.0). A final response rate of 51% (n = 1023/1998) was achieved. Respondents were asked ‘indicate how you view yourself as a pharmacist’ – in terms of their relative focus on the health-professional and business aspects of their role. Respondents were also asked ‘do you consider a lack of training opportunities to be a barrier to the development of the public health role of community pharmacists?’. Results Locums were significantly more likely than owners or employees to consider each factor a major barrier. Discussion Four in 10 locums consider a lack of training opportunities to constitute a major barrier to the development of their public health function. Pharmacy may not be able to provide the services required of it by the policy agenda if pharmacists are unable to be involved in extended role activities through a lack of training opportunities. Therefore, the paradox that needs to be addressed is that while locum pharmacists are arguably more likely to embrace ‘professionalising’, patient-care-based roles, they are also the group least likely to be able to access training to fulfil such roles. The training needs of this large subset of the pharmacist population need to be assessed and met if the whole community pharmacy workforce is going to maximise its contribution to public health under the new contractual framework. References 1 Shann P, Hassell K. An exploration of the diversity and complexity of the pharmacy locum workforce. London: Royal Pharmaceutical Society of Great Britain; 2004. 2 Almond M. Locums – key players in workforce – cast adrift as contract launched. Pharm J 2005;274:420. 3 Bishop DH. A lack of appreciation of what really happens. Pharm J 2005;274:451.

Exploring the dimensions and transactional outcomes of incomplete business contracts

With an increased emphasis on outsourcing and shortening business cycles, contracts between firms have become more important. Carefully written contracts contribute to the efficiency and longevity of inter-firm relationships as they may constrain opportunism and are often a less costly governance mechanism than maintaining complex social relationships (Larson 1992). This exploratory examination adds to our understanding of how incomplete contracts affect interorganizational exchange. First, we consider the multiple dimensions of contract constraints (safeguards). We also investigate the extent that constraints affect decisions to enforce the relationship by delaying payments, and whether the decision is efficient. Finally, we examine the extent the constraints are effective (and ineffective) at reducing transaction problems associated with enforcement. Based on 971 observations of transactions using explicit, written terms and other secondary data in the context of IT transaction in The Netherlands we test our research propositions.

Proactive environmental systems:the next generation of environmental monitoring

In this article we envision factors and trends that shape the next generation of environmental monitoring systems. One key factor in this respect is the combined effect of end-user needs and the general development of IT services and their availability. Currently, an environmental (monitoring) system is assumed to be reactive. It delivers measurement data and computational results only if the user explicitly asks for it either by query or subscription. There is a temptation to automate this by simply pushing data to end-users. This, however, leads easily to an "advertisement strategy", where data is pushed to end-users regardless of users' needs. Under this strategy, the mere amount of received data obfuscates the individual messages; any "automatic" service, regardless of its fitness, overruns a system that requires the user's initiative. The foreseeable problem is that, unless there is no overall management, each new environmental service is going to compete for end-users' attention and, thus, inadvertently hinder the use of existing services. As the main contribution we investigate the nature of proactive environmental systems, and how they should be designed to avoid the aforementioned problem. We also discuss how semantics, participatory sensing, uncertainty management, and situational awareness link to proactive environmental systems. We illustrate our proposals with some real-life examples.

IT and learning in Higher Education

Educational institutions are under pressure to provide high quality education to large numbers of students very efficiently. The efficiency target combined with the large numbers generally militates against providing students with a great deal of personal or small group tutorial contact with academic staff. As a result of this, students often develop their learning criteria as a group activity, being guided by comparisons one with another rather than the formal assessments made of their submitted work. IT systems and the World Wide Web are increasingly employed to amplify the resources of academic departments although their emphasis tends to be with course administration rather than learning support. The ready availability of information on the World Wide Web and the ease with which is may be incorporated into essays can lead students to develop a limited view of learning as the process of finding, editing and linking information. This paper examines a module design strategy for tackling these issues, based on developments in modules where practical knowledge is a significant element of the learning objectives. Attempts to make effective use of IT support in these modules will be reviewed as a contribution to the development of an IT for learning strategy currently being undertaken in the author’s Institution.

Using XML and XSLT for flexible elicitation of mental-health risk knowledge

Current tools for assessing risks associated with mental-health problems require assessors to make high-level judgements based on clinical experience. This paper describes how new technologies can enhance qualitative research methods to identify lower-level cues underlying these judgements, which can be collected by people without a specialist mental-health background. Content analysis of interviews with 46 multidisciplinary mental-health experts exposed the cues and their interrelationships, which were represented by a mind map using software that stores maps as XML. All 46 mind maps were integrated into a single XML knowledge structure and analysed by a Lisp program to generate quantitative information about the numbers of experts associated with each part of it. The knowledge was refined by the experts, using software developed in Flash to record their collective views within the XML itself. These views specified how the XML should be transformed by XSLT, a technology for rendering XML, which resulted in a validated hierarchical knowledge structure associating patient cues with risks. Changing knowledge elicitation requirements were accommodated by flexible transformations of XML data using XSLT, which also facilitated generation of multiple data-gathering tools suiting different assessment circumstances and levels of mental-health knowledge. © 2007 Informa UK Ltd All rights reserved.

On a New Approach to Williamson's Generalization of Pólya's Enumeration Theorem

Pólya’s fundamental enumeration theorem and some results from Williamson’s generalized setup of it are proved in terms of Schur- Macdonald’s theory (S-MT) of “invariant matrices”. Given a permutation group W ≤ Sd and a one-dimensional character χ of W , the polynomial functor Fχ corresponding via S-MT to the induced monomial representation Uχ = ind|Sdv/W (χ) of Sd , is studied. It turns out that the characteristic ch(Fχ ) is the weighted inventory of some set J(χ) of W -orbits in the integer-valued hypercube [0, ∞)d . The elements of J(χ) can be distinguished among all W -orbits by a maximum property. The identity ch(Fχ ) = ch(Uχ ) of both characteristics is a consequence of S-MT, and is equivalent to a result of Williamson. Pólya’s theorem can be obtained from the above identity by the specialization χ = 1W , where 1W is the unit character of W.

Regular and Other Kinds of Extensions of Topological Spaces

∗ This work was partially supported by the National Foundation for Scientific Researches at the Bulgarian Ministry of Education and Science under contract no. MM-427/94.