Modelling the bioaccumulation of persistent organic pollutants in agricultural food chains for regulatory exposure assessment

New models for estimating bioaccumulation of persistent organic pollutants in the agricultural food chain were developed using recent improvements to plant uptake and cattle transfer models. One model named AgriSim was based on K OW regressions of bioaccumulation in plants and cattle, while the other was a steady-state mechanistic model, AgriCom. The two developed models and European Union System for the Evaluation of Substances (EUSES), as a benchmark, were applied to four reported food chain (soil/air-grass-cow-milk) scenarios to evaluate the performance of each model simulation against the observed data. The four scenarios considered were as follows: (1) polluted soil and air, (2) polluted soil, (3) highly polluted soil surface and polluted subsurface and (4) polluted soil and air at different mountain elevations. AgriCom reproduced observed milk bioaccumulation well for all four scenarios, as did AgriSim for scenarios 1 and 2, but EUSES only did this for scenario 1. The main causes of the deviation for EUSES and AgriSim were the lack of the soil-air-plant pathway and the ambient air-plant pathway, respectively. Based on the results, it is recommended that soil-air-plant and ambient air-plant pathway should be calculated separately and the K OW regression of transfer factor to milk used in EUSES be avoided. AgriCom satisfied the recommendations that led to the low residual errors between the simulated and the observed bioaccumulation in agricultural food chain for the four scenarios considered. It is therefore recommended that this model should be incorporated into regulatory exposure assessment tools. The model uncertainty of the three models should be noted since the simulated concentration in milk from 5th to 95th percentile of the uncertainty analysis often varied over two orders of magnitude. Using a measured value of soil organic carbon content was effective to reduce this uncertainty by one order of magnitude.

Evaluation of moisture sources for the Central European summer flood of May/June 2013 based on regional climate model simulations

Heavy precipitation affected Central Europe in May/June 2013, triggering damaging floods both on the Danube and the Elbe rivers. Based on a modelling approach with COSMO-CLM, moisture fluxes, backward trajectories, cyclone tracks and precipitation fields are evaluated for the relevant time period 30 May–2 June 2013. We identify potential moisture sources and quantify their contribution to the flood event focusing on the Danube basin through sensitivity experiments: Control simulations are performed with undisturbed ERA-Interim boundary conditions, while multiple sensitivity experiments are driven with modified evaporation characteristics over selected marine and land areas. Two relevant cyclones are identified both in reanalysis and in our simulations, which moved counter-clockwise in a retrograde path from Southeastern Europe over Eastern Europe towards the northern slopes of the Alps. The control simulations represent the synoptic evolution of the event reasonably well. The evolution of the precipitation event in the control simulations shows some differences in terms of its spatial and temporal characteristics compared to observations. The main precipitation event can be separated into two phases concerning the moisture sources. Our modelling results provide evidence that the two main sources contributing to the event were the continental evapotranspiration (moisture recycling; both phases) and the North Atlantic Ocean (first phase only). The Mediterranean Sea played only a minor role as a moisture source. This study confirms the importance of continental moisture recycling for heavy precipitation events over Central Europe during the summer half year.

First-order turbulence closure for modelling complex canopy flows

Simple first-order closure remains an attractive way of formulating equations for complex canopy flows when the aim is to find analytic or simple numerical solutions to illustrate fundamental physical processes. Nevertheless, the limitations of such closures must be understood if the resulting models are to illuminate rather than mislead. We propose five conditions that first-order closures must satisfy then test two widely used closures against them. The first is the eddy diffusivity based on a mixing length. We discuss the origins of this approach, its use in simple canopy flows and extensions to more complex flows. We find that it satisfies most of the conditions and, because the reasons for its failures are well understood, it is a reliable methodology. The second is the velocity-squared closure that relates shear stress to the square of mean velocity. Again we discuss the origins of this closure and show that it is based on incorrect physical principles and fails to satisfy any of the five conditions in complex canopy flows; consequently its use can lead to actively misleading conclusions.

Doing well by talking good? A topic modelling-assisted discourse study of corporate social responsibility

Using the novel technique of topic modelling, this paper examines thematic patterns and their changes over time in a large corpus of corporate social responsibility (CSR) reports produced in the oil sector. Whereas previous research on corporate communications has been small-scale or interested in selected lexical aspects and thematic categories identified ex ante, our approach allows for thematic patterns to emerge from the data. The analysis reveals a number of major trends and topic shifts pointing to changing practices of CSR. Nowadays ‘people’, ‘communities’ and ‘rights’ seem to be given more prominence, whereas ‘environmental protection’ appears to be less relevant. Using more established corpus-based methods, we subsequently explore two top phrases - ‘human rights’ and ‘climate change’ that were identified as representative of the shifting thematic patterns. Our approach strikes a balance between the purely quantitative and qualitative methodologies and offers applied linguists new ways of exploring discourse in large collections of texts.

PMIP4-CMIP6: the contribution of the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to CMIP6

The goal of the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) is to understand the response of the climate system to changes in different climate forcings and to feedbacks. Through comparison with observations of the environmental impacts of these climate changes, or with climate reconstructions based on physical, chemical or biological records, PMIP also addresses the issue of how well state-of-the-art models simulate climate changes. Palaeoclimate states are radically different from those of the recent past documented by the instrumental record and thus provide an out-of-sample test of the models used for future climate projections and a way to assess whether they have the correct sensitivity to forcings and feedbacks. Five distinctly different periods have been selected as focus for the core palaeoclimate experiments that are designed to contribute to the objectives of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). This manuscript describes the motivation for the choice of these periods and the design of the numerical experiments, with a focus upon their novel features compared to the experiments performed in previous phases of PMIP and CMIP as well as the benefits of common analyses of the models across multiple climate states. It also describes the information needed to document each experiment and the model outputs required for analysis and benchmarking.

Modelling the secular evolution of migrating planet pairs

The subject of this paper is the secular behaviour of a pair of planets evolving under dissipative forces. In particular, we investigate the case when dissipative forces affect the planetary semimajor axes and the planets move inwards/outwards the central star, in a process known as planet migration. To perform this investigation, we introduce fundamental concepts of conservative and dissipative dynamics of the three-body problem. Based on these concepts, we develop a qualitative model of the secular evolution of the migrating planetary pair. Our approach is based on the analysis of the energy and the orbital angular momentum exchange between the two-planet system and an external medium; thus no specific kind of dissipative forces is invoked. We show that, under the assumption that dissipation is weak and slow, the evolutionary routes of the migrating planets are traced by the Mode I and Mode II stationary solutions of the conservative secular problem. The ultimate convergence and the evolution of the system along one of these secular modes of motion are determined uniquely by the condition that the dissipation rate is sufficiently smaller than the proper secular frequency of the system. We show that it is possible to reassemble the starting configurations and the migration history of the systems on the basis of their final states and consequently to constrain the parameters of the physical processes involved.

Fragmentation drives tropical forest fragments to early successional states: A modelling study for Brazilian Atlantic forests

Land use leads to massive habitat destruction and fragmentation in tropical forests. Despite its global dimensions the effects of fragmentation on ecosystem dynamics are not well understood due to the complexity of the problem. We present a simulation analysis performed by the individual-based model FORMIND. The model was applied to the Brazilian Atlantic Forest, one of the world`s biodiversity hot spots, at the Plateau of Sao Paulo. This study investigates the long-term effects of fragmentation processes on structure and dynamics of different sized remnant tropical forest fragments (1-100 ha) at community and plant functional type (PFT) level. We disentangle the interplay of single effects of different key fragmentation processes (edge mortality, increased mortality of large trees, local seed loss and external seed rain) using simulation experiments in a full factorial design. Our analysis reveals that particularly small forest fragments below 25 ha suffer substantial structural changes, biomass and biodiversity loss in the long term. At community level biomass is reduced up to 60%. Two thirds of the mid- and late-successional species groups, especially shade-tolerant (late successional climax) species groups are prone of extinction in small fragments. The shade-tolerant species groups were most strongly affected; its tree number was reduced more than 60% mainly by increased edge mortality. This process proved to be the most powerful of those investigated, explaining alone more than 80% of the changes observed for this group. External seed rain was able to compensate approximately 30% of the observed fragmentation effects for shade-tolerant species. Our results suggest that tropical forest fragments will suffer strong structural changes in the long term, leading to tree species impoverishment. They may reach a new equilibrium with a substantially reduced subset of the initial species pool, and are driven towards an earlier successional state. The natural regeneration potential of a landscape scattered with forest fragments appears to be limited, as external seed rain is not able to fully compensate for the observed fragmentation-induced changes. Our findings suggest basic recommendations for the management of fragmented tropical forest landscapes. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Skull Modularity in Neotropical Marsupials and Monkeys: Size Variation and Evolutionary Constraint and Flexibility

An organism is built through a series of contingent factors, yet it is determined by historical, physical, and developmental constraints. A constraint should not be understood as an absolute obstacle to evolution, as it may also generate new possibilities for evolutionary change. Modularity is, in this context, an important way of organizing biological information and has been recognized as a central concept in evolutionary biology bridging on developmental, genetics, morphological, biochemical, and physiological studies. In this article, we explore how modularity affects the evolution of a complex system in two mammalian lineages by analyzing correlation, variance/covariance, and residual matrices (without size variation). We use the multivariate response to selection equation to simulate the behavior of Eutheria and Metharia skulls in terms of their evolutionary flexibility and constraints. We relate these results to classical approaches based on morphological integration tests based on functional/developmental hypotheses. Eutherians (Neotropical primates) showed smaller magnitudes of integration compared with Metatheria (didelphids) and also skull modules more clearly delimited. Didelphids showed higher magnitudes of integration and their modularity is strongly influenced by within-groups size variation to a degree that evolutionary responses are basically aligned with size variation. Primates still have a good portion of the total variation based on size; however, their enhanced modularization allows a broader spectrum of responses, more similar to the selection gradients applied (enhanced flexibility). Without size variation, both groups become much more similar in terms of modularity patterns and magnitudes and, consequently, in their evolutionary flexibility. J. Exp. Zool. (Mol. Dev. Evol.) 314B:663-683, 2010. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

A discontinuous-Galerkin-based immersed boundary method

A numerical method to approximate partial differential equations on meshes that do not conform to the domain boundaries is introduced. The proposed method is conceptually simple and free of user-defined parameters. Starting with a conforming finite element mesh, the key ingredient is to switch those elements intersected by the Dirichlet boundary to a discontinuous-Galerkin approximation and impose the Dirichlet boundary conditions strongly. By virtue of relaxing the continuity constraint at those elements. boundary locking is avoided and optimal-order convergence is achieved. This is shown through numerical experiments in reaction-diffusion problems. Copyright (c) 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Scalable model-based configuration management of security services in complex enterprise networks

Security administrators face the challenge of designing, deploying and maintaining a variety of configuration files related to security systems, especially in large-scale networks. These files have heterogeneous syntaxes and follow differing semantic concepts. Nevertheless, they are interdependent due to security services having to cooperate and their configuration to be consistent with each other, so that global security policies are completely and correctly enforced. To tackle this problem, our approach supports a comfortable definition of an abstract high-level security policy and provides an automated derivation of the desired configuration files. It is an extension of policy-based management and policy hierarchies, combining model-based management (MBM) with system modularization. MBM employs an object-oriented model of the managed system to obtain the details needed for automated policy refinement. The modularization into abstract subsystems (ASs) segment the system-and the model-into units which more closely encapsulate related system components and provide focused abstract views. As a result, scalability is achieved and even comprehensive IT systems can be modelled in a unified manner. The associated tool MoBaSeC (Model-Based-Service-Configuration) supports interactive graphical modelling, automated model analysis and policy refinement with the derivation of configuration files. We describe the MBM and AS approaches, outline the tool functions and exemplify their applications and results obtained. Copyright (C) 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

MODELLING AND FORECASTING INFLATION RATES IN GHANA: AN APPLICATION OF SARIMA MODELS

Ghana faces a macroeconomic problem of inflation for a long period of time. The problem in somehow slows the economic growth in this country. As we all know, inflation is one of the major economic challenges facing most countries in the world especially those in African including Ghana. Therefore, forecasting inflation rates in Ghana becomes very important for its government to design economic strategies or effective monetary policies to combat any unexpected high inflation in this country. This paper studies seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model to forecast inflation rates in Ghana. Using monthly inflation data from July 1991 to December 2009, we find that ARIMA (1,1,1)(0,0,1)12 can represent the data behavior of inflation rate in Ghana well. Based on the selected model, we forecast seven (7) months inflation rates of Ghana outside the sample period (i.e. from January 2010 to July 2010). The observed inflation rate from January to April which was published by Ghana Statistical Service Department fall within the 95% confidence interval obtained from the designed model. The forecasted results show a decreasing pattern and a turning point of Ghana inflation in the month of July.

TCA Evaluation : Lab Measurements, Modelling and System Simulations

The study reported here is part of a large project for evaluation of the Thermo-Chemical Accumulator (TCA), a technology under development by the Swedish company ClimateWell AB. The studies concentrate on the use of the technology for comfort cooling. This report concentrates on measurements in the laboratory, modelling and system simulation. The TCA is a three-phase absorption heat pump that stores energy in the form of crystallised salt, in this case Lithium Chloride (LiCl) with water being the other substance. The process requires vacuum conditions as with standard absorption chillers using LiBr/water. Measurements were carried out in the laboratories at the Solar Energy Research Center SERC, at Högskolan Dalarna as well as at ClimateWell AB. The measurements at SERC were performed on a prototype version 7:1 and showed that this prototype had several problems resulting in poor and unreliable performance. The main results were that: there was significant corrosion leading to non-condensable gases that in turn caused very poor performance; unwanted crystallisation caused blockages as well as inconsistent behaviour; poor wetting of the heat exchangers resulted in relatively high temperature drops there. A measured thermal COP for cooling of 0.46 was found, which is significantly lower than the theoretical value. These findings resulted in a thorough redesign for the new prototype, called ClimateWell 10 (CW10), which was tested briefly by the authors at ClimateWell. The data collected here was not large, but enough to show that the machine worked consistently with no noticeable vacuum problems. It was also sufficient for identifying the main parameters in a simulation model developed for the TRNSYS simulation environment, but not enough to verify the model properly. This model was shown to be able to simulate the dynamic as well as static performance of the CW10, and was then used in a series of system simulations. A single system model was developed as the basis of the system simulations, consisting of a CW10 machine, 30 m2 flat plate solar collectors with backup boiler and an office with a design cooling load in Stockholm of 50 W/m2, resulting in a 7.5 kW design load for the 150 m2 floor area. Two base cases were defined based on this: one for Stockholm using a dry cooler with design cooling rate of 30 kW; one for Madrid with a cooling tower with design cooling rate of 34 kW. A number of parametric studies were performed based on these two base cases. These showed that the temperature lift is a limiting factor for cooling for higher ambient temperatures and for charging with fixed temperature source such as district heating. The simulated evacuated tube collector performs only marginally better than a good flat plate collector if considering the gross area, the margin being greater for larger solar fractions. For 30 m2 collector a solar faction of 49% and 67% were achieved for the Stockholm and Madrid base cases respectively. The average annual efficiency of the collector in Stockholm (12%) was much lower than that in Madrid (19%). The thermal COP was simulated to be approximately 0.70, but has not been possible to verify with measured data. The annual electrical COP was shown to be very dependent on the cooling load as a large proportion of electrical use is for components that are permanently on. For the cooling loads studied, the annual electrical COP ranged from 2.2 for a 2000 kWh cooling load to 18.0 for a 21000 kWh cooling load. There is however a potential to reduce the electricity consumption in the machine, which would improve these figures significantly. It was shown that a cooling tower is necessary for the Madrid climate, whereas a dry cooler is sufficient for Stockholm although a cooling tower does improve performance. The simulation study was very shallow and has shown a number of areas that are important to study in more depth. One such area is advanced control strategy, which is necessary to mitigate the weakness of the technology (low temperature lift for cooling) and to optimally use its strength (storage).

Environmental Objectives, Cost Efficiency, and Multivariate Stochastic Control

This paper is concerned with the cost efficiency in achieving the Swedish national air quality objectives under uncertainty. To realize an ecologically sustainable society, the parliament has approved a set of interim and long-term pollution reduction targets. However, there are considerable quantification uncertainties on the effectiveness of the proposed pollution reduction measures. In this paper, we develop a multivariate stochastic control framework to deal with the cost efficiency problem with multiple pollutants. Based on the cost and technological data collected by several national authorities, we explore the implications of alternative probabilistic constraints. It is found that a composite probabilistic constraint induces considerably lower abatement cost than separable probabilistic restrictions. The trend is reinforced by the presence of positive correlations between reductions in the multiple pollutants.

Modelling dominance in a flexible intercross analysis

The aim of this paper is to develop a flexible model for analysis of quantitative trait loci (QTL) in outbred line crosses, which includes both additive and dominance effects. Our flexible intercross analysis (FIA) model accounts for QTL that are not fixed within founder lines and is based on the variance component framework. Genome scans with FIA are performed using a score statistic, which does not require variance component estimation. RESULTS: Simulations of a pedigree with 800 F2 individuals showed that the power of FIA including both additive and dominance effects was almost 50% for a QTL with equal allele frequencies in both lines with complete dominance and a moderate effect, whereas the power of a traditional regression model was equal to the chosen significance value of 5%. The power of FIA without dominance effects included in the model was close to those obtained for FIA with dominance for all simulated cases except for QTL with overdominant effects. A genome-wide linkage analysis of experimental data from an F2 intercross between Red Jungle Fowl and White Leghorn was performed with both additive and dominance effects included in FIA. The score values for chicken body weight at 200 days of age were similar to those obtained in FIA analysis without dominance. CONCLUSION: We have extended FIA to include QTL dominance effects. The power of FIA was superior, or similar, to standard regression methods for QTL effects with dominance. The difference in power for FIA with or without dominance is expected to be small as long as the QTL effects are not overdominant. We suggest that FIA with only additive effects should be the standard model to be used, especially since it is more computationally efficient.

Trust-By-Contract: Modelling, Analysing and Predicting Behaviour in Software Architectures

Architecture description languages (ADLs) are used to specify high-level, compositional views of a software application. ADL research focuses on software composed of prefabricated parts, so-called software components. ADLs usually come equipped with rigorous state-transition style semantics, facilitating verification and analysis of specifications. Consequently, ADLs are well suited to configuring distributed and event-based systems. However, additional expressive power is required for the description of enterprise software architectures – in particular, those built upon newer middleware, such as implementations of Java’s EJB specification, or Microsoft’s COM+/.NET. The enterprise requires distributed software solutions that are scalable, business-oriented and mission-critical. We can make progress toward attaining these qualities at various stages of the software development process. In particular, progress at the architectural level can be leveraged through use of an ADL that incorporates trust and dependability analysis. Also, current industry approaches to enterprise development do not address several important architectural design issues. The TrustME ADL is designed to meet these requirements, through combining approaches to software architecture specification with rigorous design-by-contract ideas. In this paper, we focus on several aspects of TrustME that facilitate specification and analysis of middleware-based architectures for trusted enterprise computing systems.