Global, regional, and national age–sex specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.

NEU-MODEL : a multi-level object-oriented dynamic emulation laboratory

Computational neuroscience aims to elucidate the mechanisms of neural information processing and population dynamics, through a methodology of incorporating biological data into complex mathematical models. Existing simulation environments model at a particular level of detail; none allow a multi-level approach to neural modelling. Moreover, most are not engineered to produce compute-efficient solutions, an important issue because sufficient processing power is a major impediment in the field. This project aims to apply modern software engineering techniques to create a flexible high performance neural modelling environment, which will allow rigorous exploration of model parameter effects, and modelling at multiple levels of abstraction.

On secure outsourcing of cryptographic computations to cloud

For the past few years, research works on the topic of secure outsourcing of cryptographic computations has drawn significant attention from academics in security and cryptology disciplines as well as information security practitioners. One main reason for this interest is their application for resource constrained devices such as RFID tags. While there has been significant progress in this domain since Hohenberger and Lysyanskaya have provided formal security notions for secure computation delegation, there are some interesting challenges that need to be solved that can be useful towards a wider deployment of cryptographic protocols that enable secure outsourcing of cryptographic computations. This position paper brings out these challenging problems with RFID technology as the use case together with our ideas, where applicable, that can provide a direction towards solving the problems.

Cryptanalysis of Tav-128 Hash Function

Many RFID protocols use cryptographic hash functions for their security. The resource constrained nature of RFID systems forces the use of light weight cryptographic algorithms. Tav-128 is one such 128-bit light weight hash function proposed by Peris-Lopez et al. for a low-cost RFID tag authentication protocol. Apart from some statistical tests for randomness by the designers themselves, Tav-128 has not undergone any other thorough security analysis. Based on these tests, the designers claimed that Tav-128 does not posses any trivial weaknesses. In this article, we carry out the first third party security analysis of Tav-128 and show that this hash function is neither collision resistant nor second preimage resistant. Firstly, we show a practical collision attack on Tav-128 having a complexity of 237 calls to the compression function and produce message pairs of arbitrary length which produce the same hash value under this hash function. We then show a second preimage attack on Tav-128 which succeeds with a complexity of 262 calls to the compression function. Finally, we study the constituent functions of Tav-128 and show that the concatenation of nonlinear functions A and B produces a 64-bit permutation from 32-bit messages. This could be a useful light weight primitive for future RFID protocols.

The desirability of depoliticization: Compliance in the international climate regime

The Kyoto Protocol is remarkable among global multilateral environmental agreements for its efforts to depoliticize compliance. However, attempts to create autonomous, arm’s length and rule-based compliance processes with extensive reliance on putatively neutral experts were only partially realized in practice in the first commitment period from 2008 to 2012. In particular, the procedurally constrained facilitative powers vested in the Facilitative Branch were circumvented, and expert review teams (ERTs) assumed pivotal roles in compliance facilitation. The ad hoc diplomatic and facilitative practices engaged in by these small teams of technical experts raise questions about the reliability and consistency of the compliance process. For the future operation of the Kyoto compliance system, it is suggested that ERTs should be confined to more technical and procedural roles, in line with their expertise. There would then be greater scope for the Facilitative Branch to assume a more comprehensive facilitative role, safeguarded by due process guarantees, in accordance with its mandate. However, if – as appears likely – the future compliance trajectories under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change will include a significant role for ERTs without oversight by the Compliance Committee, it is important to develop appropriate procedural safeguards that reflect and shape the various technical and political roles these teams currently play.

Cost-effective biodiversity restoration with uncertain growth in forest habitat quality

This paper develops a dynamic model for cost-effective selection of sites for restoring biodiversity when habitat quality develops over time and is uncertain. A safety-first decision criterion is used for ensuring a minimum level of habitats, and this is formulated in a chance-constrained programming framework. The theoretical results show; (i) inclusion of quality growth reduces overall cost for achieving a future biodiversity target from relatively early establishment of habitats, but (ii) consideration of uncertainty in growth increases total cost and delays establishment, and (iii) cost-effective trading of habitat requires exchange rate between sites that varies over time. An empirical application to the red listed umbrella species - white-backed woodpecker - shows that the total cost of achieving habitat targets specified in the Swedish recovery plan is doubled if the target is to be achieved with high reliability, and that equilibrating price on a habitat trading market differs considerably between different quality growth combinations. © 2013 Elsevier GmbH.

Optimal allocation of conservation effort among subpopulations of a threatened species: How important is patch quality?

Money is often a limiting factor in conservation, and attempting to conserve endangered species can be costly. Consequently, a framework for optimizing fiscally constrained conservation decisions for a single species is needed. In this paper we find the optimal budget allocation among isolated subpopulations of a threatened species to minimize local extinction probability. We solve the problem using stochastic dynamic programming, derive a useful and simple alternative guideline for allocating funds, and test its performance using forward simulation. The model considers subpopulations that persist in habitat patches of differing quality, which in our model is reflected in different relationships between money invested and extinction risk. We discover that, in most cases, subpopulations that are less efficient to manage should receive more money than those that are more efficient to manage, due to higher investment needed to reduce extinction risk. Our simple investment guideline performs almost as well as the exact optimal strategy. We illustrate our approach with a case study of the management of the Sumatran tiger, Panthera tigris sumatrae, in Kerinci Seblat National Park (KSNP), Indonesia. We find that different budgets should be allocated to the separate tiger subpopulations in KSNP. The subpopulation that is not at risk of extinction does not require any management investment. Based on the combination of risks of extinction and habitat quality, the optimal allocation for these particular tiger subpopulations is an unusual case: subpopulations that occur in higher-quality habitat (more efficient to manage) should receive more funds than the remaining subpopulation that is in lower-quality habitat. Because the yearly budget allocated to the KSNP for tiger conservation is small, to guarantee the persistence of all the subpopulations that are currently under threat we need to prioritize those that are easier to save. When allocating resources among subpopulations of a threatened species, the combined effects of differences in habitat quality, cost of action, and current subpopulation probability of extinction need to be integrated. We provide a useful guideline for allocating resources among isolated subpopulations of any threatened species. © 2010 by the Ecological Society of America.

The ceiling to coproduction in university-industry research collaboration

The purpose of this paper is to provide insight into government attempts at bridging the divide between theory and practice through university-industry research collaboration modelled under engaged scholarship. The findings are based on data sourced from interviews with 47 academic and industry project leaders from 23 large scale research projects. The paper demonstrates a ceiling to the coproduction of knowledge arising from the preconceived beliefs of both academics and industry partners regarding project roles and responsibilities. The findings show that coproduction was constrained by academic partners assuming control over much of the research activities and industry partners failing to confront or challenge academic decision-making because both academics and industry partners placed a higher value on academic knowledge compared with applied or practical knowledge. It is argued the theory of engaged scholarship, and consequent initiatives to encourage engaged scholarship, fail to account for the superior status of academic knowledge.

Tectonometamorphic evolution of the Åreskutan Nappe-Caledonian history revealed by SIMS U–Pb zircon geochronology

Secondary ionization mass spectrometry (SIMS) U–Pb dating of zircons from the Åreskutan Nappe in the central part of the Seve Nappe Complex of western central Jämtland provides new constraints on the timing of granulite–amphibolite-facies metamorphism and tectonic stacking of the nappe during the Caledonian orogeny. Peak-temperature metamorphism in garnet migmatites is constrained to c. 442 ± 4 Ma, very similar to the ages of leucogranites at 442 ± 3 and 441 ± 4 Ma. Within a migmatitic amphibolite, felsic segregations crystallized at 436 ± 2 Ma. Pegmatites, cross-cutting the dominant Caledonian foliation in the Nappe, yield 428 ± 4 and 430 ± 3 Ma ages. The detrital zircon cores in the migmatites and leucogranites provide evidence of Late Palaeoproterozoic, Mesoproterozoic to Early Neoproterozoic source terranes for the metasedimentary rocks. The formation of the ductile and hot Seve migmatites, with their inverted metamorphism and thinning towards the hinterland, can be explained by an extrusion model in which the allochthon stayed ductile for a period of at least 10 million years during cooling from peak-temperature metamorphism early in the Silurian. In our model, Baltica–Laurentia collision occurred in the Late Ordovician–earliest Silurian, with emplacement of the nappes far on to the Baltoscandian platform during the Silurian and early Devonian, Scandian Orogeny lasting until c. 390 Ma.

A new approach to the cloud-based heterogeneous MapReduce placement problem

Guaranteeing Quality of Service (QoS) with minimum computation cost is the most important objective of cloud-based MapReduce computations. Minimizing the total computation cost of cloud-based MapReduce computations is done through MapReduce placement optimization. MapReduce placement optimization approaches can be classified into two categories: homogeneous MapReduce placement optimization and heterogeneous MapReduce placement optimization. It is generally believed that heterogeneous MapReduce placement optimization is more effective than homogeneous MapReduce placement optimization in reducing the total running cost of cloud-based MapReduce computations. This paper proposes a new approach to the heterogeneous MapReduce placement optimization problem. In this new approach, the heterogeneous MapReduce placement optimization problem is transformed into a constrained combinatorial optimization problem and is solved by an innovative constructive algorithm. Experimental results show that the running cost of the cloud-based MapReduce computation platform using this new approach is 24:3%-44:0% lower than that using the most popular homogeneous MapReduce placement approach, and 2:0%-36:2% lower than that using the heterogeneous MapReduce placement approach not considering the spare resources from the existing MapReduce computations. The experimental results have also demonstrated the good scalability of this new approach.

A roadmap for interpreting the literature on vision and driving

Over the past several decades there has been a sharp increase in the number of studies focused on the relationship between vision and driving. The intensified attention to this topic has most likely been stimulated by the lack of an evidence basis for determining vision standards for driving licensure and a poor understanding about how vision impairment impacts driver safety and performance. Clinicians depend on the literature on vision and driving to advise visually impaired patients appropriately about driving fitness. Policy makers also depend on the scientific literature in order to develop guidelines that are evidence-based and are thus fair to persons who are visually impaired. Thus it is important for clinicians and policy makers alike to understand how various study designs and measurement methods should be interpreted so that the conclusions and recommendations they make are not overly broad, too narrowly constrained, or even misguided. We offer a methodological framework to guide interpretations of studies on vision and driving that can also serve as a heuristic for researchers in the area. Here, we discuss research designs and general measurement methods for the study of vision as they relate to driver safety, driver performance, and driver-centered (self-reported) outcomes.

Making the profitable transition towards sustainable business practice

The last three decades have been difficult for companies and industry. In an increasingly competitive international business climate with shifting national environmental regulations, higher standards are being demanded by the consumer and community groups, not-to-mention the escalating cost of primary resources such as water, steel and minerals. The cause of these pressures is the traditional notion held by business executives and engineers that there is an inherent trade off between eco-efficiency and improving the economic bottom line. However there is significant evidence and examples of best practice to show that there is in fact no trade-off between the environment and the economy if sustainable development through continual improvement is adopted. It is highly possible therefore for companies to make a profitable transition towards sustainable business practice, where along the transition significant business opportunities can be taken advantage of. Companies are by their very nature dynamic, influential and highly capable of adapting to change. Making an organisational transformation to a sustainable business is not outside the capacity of the typical company, who know much of what is needed already to change their activities to satisfy current market demands while achieving competitiveness. However in order to make the transition towards sustainable business practice companies require some key mechanisms such as accurate information on methodologies and opportunities, understanding of the financial and non-financial incentives, permission from stakeholders and shareholders, understanding of the emerging market opportunities, a critical mass of leaders in their sector and demonstrated case studies, and awarding appropriate risk-taking activities undertaken by engineers and CEOs. Satisfying these requirements will adopt an innovative culture within the company that strives for continual improvement and successfully transforms itself to achieve competitiveness in the 21st Century. This paper will summarise the experiences of The Natural Edge Project (TNEP) and its partners in assisting organisations to make a profitable transition towards sustainable business practice through several initiatives. The Natural Advantage of Nations publication provides the critical information required by business leaders and engineers to set the context of sustainable business practice. The Profiting in a Carbon Constrained World report, developed with Natural Capitalism Inc led by Hunter Lovins, summarises the opportunities available to companies to take advantage of the carbon trading market mechanisms such as the Chicago Climate Exchange and European Climate Exchange. The Sustainability Helix then guides the company through the transition by identifying the key tools and methodologies required by companies to reduce environmental loading while dramatically improving resource productivity and achieving competitiveness. Finally, the Engineering Sustainable Solutions Program delivers the key engineering information required by companies and university departments to deliver sustainable engineering solutions. The initiatives are of varying complexity and level of application, however all are designed to provide key staff the critical information required to make a profitable transition towards sustainable business practice. It is then their responsibility to apply and teach their knowledge to the rest of the organisation.

High-temperature, low-H₂O silicic magmas of the Yellowstone Hotspot: an experimental study of Rhyolite from the Bruneau-Jarbidge eruptive center, Central Snake River Plain, USA

The phase relations have been investigated experimentally at 200 and 500 MPa as a function of water activity for one of the least evolved (Indian Batt Rhyolite) and of a more evolved rhyolite composition (Cougar Point Tuff XV) from the 12·8-8·1 Ma Bruneau-Jarbidge eruptive center of the Yellowstone hotspot. Particular priority was given to accurate determination of the water content of the quenched glasses using infrared spectroscopic techniques. Comparison of the composition of natural and experimentally synthesized phases confirms that high temperatures (>900°C) and extremely low melt water contents (<1·5 wt % H₂O) are required to reproduce the natural mineral assemblages. In melts containing 0·5-1·5 wt % H₂O, the liquidus phase is clinopyroxene (excluding Fe-Ti oxides, which are strongly dependent on fO₂), and the liquidus temperature of the more evolved Cougar Point Tuff sample (BJR; 940-1000°C) is at least 30°C lower than that of the Indian Batt Rhyolite lava sample (IBR2; 970-1030°C). For the composition BJR, the comparison of the compositions of the natural and experimental glasses indicates a pre-eruptive temperature of at least 900°C. The composition of clinopyroxene and pigeonite pairs can be reproduced only for water contents below 1·5 wt % H₂O at 900°C, or lower water contents if the temperature is higher. For the composition IBR2, a minimum temperature of 920°C is necessary to reproduce the main phases at 200 and 500 MPa. At 200 MPa, the pre-eruptive water content of the melt is constrained in the range 0·7-1·3 wt % at 950°C and 0·3-1·0 wt % at 1000°C. At 500 MPa, the pre-eruptive temperatures are slightly higher (by 30-50°C) for the same ranges of water concentration. The experimental results are used to explore possible proxies to constrain the depth of magma storage. The crystallization sequence of tectosilicates is strongly dependent on pressure between 200 and 500 MPa. In addition, the normative Qtz-Ab-Or contents of glasses quenched from melts coexisting with quartz, sanidine and plagioclase depend on pressure and melt water content, assuming that the normative Qtz and Ab/Or content of such melts is mainly dependent on pressure and water activity, respectively. The combination of results from the phase equilibria and from the composition of glasses indicates that the depth of magma storage for the IBR2 and BJR compositions may be in the range 300-400 MPa (13 km) and 200-300 MPa (10 km), respectively.

The impact of snares on the continuity of adolescent-onset antisocial behaviour: A test of Moffitt's developmental taxonomy

Moffitt’s dual typology of ‘life-course persistent’ and ‘adolescence limited’ offending has received extensive empirical attention, but the extent to which the antisocial behaviour of adolescence limited offenders is constrained to adolescence is relatively under-examined.Using data from the Australian Mater University Study of Pregnancy and its Outcomes, we explore Moffitt’s concept of snares, or those factors that may lead to an adolescent persisting in antisocial behaviour such as drug addiction, educational failure, and contact with the justice system. The Mater University Study of Pregnancy and its Outcomes is a longitudinal study of mother–child dyads from the pre-natal stage to 21 years of age. Findings show that one-third of individuals identified as having an adolescent onset of antisocial behaviour persisted with this antisocial behaviour as young adults. This continuity can, in part, be explained by snares and the research suggests that reducing exposure to snares may lead to less antisocial behaviour in adulthood.

Bricolage and firm performance: The moderating role of the environment

The behavioral theory of “entrepreneurial bricolage” attempts to understand what entrepreneurs do when faced with challenges and constraints. Most research about bricolage, defined as “making do by applying combinations of the resources at hand to new problems and opportunities” (Baker & Nelson 2005: 333), has been qualitative and inductive (Garud & Karnoe, 2003). Although this has created a small body of rich descriptions and interesting insights, little deductive theory has been developed and the relationship between bricolage and firm performance has not been systematically tested. In particular, prior research has suggested bricolage can have both beneficial and harmful effects. Ciborra’s (1996) study of Olivetti suggested that bricolage helped Olivetti to adapt, but simultaneously constrained firm effectiveness. Baker & Nelson (2005) suggested that bricolage may be harmful at very high levels, but more helpful if used judiciously. Other research suggests that firm environments may play an important role in shaping the outcomes of bricolage (Fisher, 2012). In this paper, we theorize and provide preliminary test of the bricolage-performance relationship and how it is affected by environmental dynamism.