A comparison of space weather analysis techniques used to predict the arrival of the Earth-directed CME and its shockwave launched on 8 April 2010

The Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) of 8 April 2010 provided an opportunity for space weather predictions from both established and developmental techniques to be made from near–real time data received from the SOHO and STEREO spacecraft; the STEREO spacecraft provide a unique view of Earth-directed events from outside the Sun-Earth line. Although the near–real time data transmitted by the STEREO Space Weather Beacon are significantly poorer in quality than the subsequently downlinked science data, the use of these data has the advantage that near–real time analysis is possible, allowing actual forecasts to be made. The fact that such forecasts cannot be biased by any prior knowledge of the actual arrival time at Earth provides an opportunity for an unbiased comparison between several established and developmental forecasting techniques. We conclude that for forecasts based on the STEREO coronagraph data, it is important to take account of the subsequent acceleration/deceleration of each CME through interaction with the solar wind, while predictions based on measurements of CMEs made by the STEREO Heliospheric Imagers would benefit from higher temporal and spatial resolution. Space weather forecasting tools must work with near–real time data; such data, when provided by science missions, is usually highly compressed and/or reduced in temporal/spatial resolution and may also have significant gaps in coverage, making such forecasts more challenging.

Metal-directed assembly of large dinuclear copper(II) dithiocarbamate macrocyclic complexes

The synthesis of a range of dinuclear Cu(II) dithiocarbamate (dtc)-based macrocycles and their characterisation are described. By carefully tuning the size of the aromatic spacer, cavities of different dimensions can be designed. The length and flexibility of the chosen spacer group dictates the intermetallic distance and hence the degree of communication between the two metal centres as evidenced by electrochemical and EPR experiments. This is illustrated by crystallographic evidence that show the macrocycles can host guests (such as CH2Cl2) or can fold and form unexpected Cu(I) dtc clusters.

Autoregressive conditional kurtosis

This article proposes a new model for autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity and kurtosis. Via a time-varying degrees of freedom parameter, the conditional variance and conditional kurtosis are permitted to evolve separately. The model uses only the standard Student’s t-density and consequently can be estimated simply using maximum likelihood. The method is applied to a set of four daily financial asset return series comprising U.S. and U.K. stocks and bonds, and significant evidence in favor of the presence of autoregressive conditional kurtosis is observed. Various extensions to the basic model are proposed, and we show that the response of kurtosis to good and bad news is not significantly asymmetric.

Conditional symmetric instability in sting-jet storms

Sting jets are transient mesoscale jets of air that descend from the tip of the cloud head towards the top of the boundary layer in severe extratropical cyclones and can lead to damaging surface wind gusts. This recently identified jet is distinct from the well-documented jets associated with the cold and warm conveyor belts. One mechanism proposed for their development is the release of conditional symmetric instability (CSI). Here the spatial distribution and temporal evolution of several CSI diagnostics in four severe storms are analysed. A sting jet has been identified in three of these storms; for comparison, we also analysed one storm that did not have a sting jet, even though it hadmany of the apparent features of sting-jet storms. The sting-jet storms are distinct from the non-sting-jet storms by having much greater andmore extensive conditional instability (CI) and CSI. CSI is released by ascending air parcels in the cloud head in two of the sting-jet storms and by descending air parcels in the other sting-jet storm. By contrast, only weak CI to ascending air parcels is present at the cloud-head tip in the non-sting-jet storm. CSI released by descending air parcels, as diagnosed by decaying downdraught slantwise convective available potential energy (DSCAPE), is collocated with the sting jets in all three sting-jet storms and has a localisedmaximum in two of them. Consistent evolutions of saturated moist potential vorticity are found.We conclude that CSI release has a role in the generation of the sting jet, that the sting jet may be driven by the release of instability to both ascending and descending parcels, and that DSCAPE could be used as a discriminating diagnostic for the sting jet based on these four case-studies.

Selecting from amongst non–nested conditional variance models: information criteria and portfolio determination

We consider the finite sample properties of model selection by information criteria in conditionally heteroscedastic models. Recent theoretical results show that certain popular criteria are consistent in that they will select the true model asymptotically with probability 1. To examine the empirical relevance of this property, Monte Carlo simulations are conducted for a set of non–nested data generating processes (DGPs) with the set of candidate models consisting of all types of model used as DGPs. In addition, not only is the best model considered but also those with similar values of the information criterion, called close competitors, thus forming a portfolio of eligible models. To supplement the simulations, the criteria are applied to a set of economic and financial series. In the simulations, the criteria are largely ineffective at identifying the correct model, either as best or a close competitor, the parsimonious GARCH(1, 1) model being preferred for most DGPs. In contrast, asymmetric models are generally selected to represent actual data. This leads to the conjecture that the properties of parameterizations of processes commonly used to model heteroscedastic data are more similar than may be imagined and that more attention needs to be paid to the behaviour of the standardized disturbances of such models, both in simulation exercises and in empirical modelling.

The correlation structure of spatial autoregressions

This paper investigates how the correlations implied by a first-order simultaneous autoregressive (SAR(1)) process are affected by the weights matrix and the autocorrelation parameter. A graph theoretic representation of the covariances in terms of walks connecting the spatial units helps to clarify a number of correlation properties of the processes. In particular, we study some implications of row-standardizing the weights matrix, the dependence of the correlations on graph distance, and the behavior of the correlations at the extremes of the parameter space. Throughout the analysis differences between directed and undirected networks are emphasized. The graph theoretic representation also clarifies why it is difficult to relate properties ofW to correlation properties of SAR(1) models defined on irregular lattices.

Development of a semantic graph-based scene description

Software representations of scenes, i.e. the modelling of objects in space, are used in many application domains. Current modelling and scene description standards focus on visualisation dimensions, and are intrinsically limited by their dependence upon their semantic interpretation and contextual application by humans. In this paper we propose the need for an open, extensible and semantically rich modelling language, which facilitates a machine-readable semantic structure. We critically review existing standards and techniques, and highlight a need for a semantically focussed scene description language. Based on this defined need we propose a preliminary solution, based on hypergraph theory, and reflect on application domains.

The conditional performance of UK property funds

The evaluation of investment fund performance has been one of the main developments of modern portfolio theory. Most studies employ the technique developed by Jensen (1968) that compares a particular fund's returns to a benchmark portfolio of equal risk. However, the standard measures of fund manager performance are known to suffer from a number of problems in practice. In particular previous studies implicitly assume that the risk level of the portfolio is stationary through the evaluation period. That is unconditional measures of performance do not account for the fact that risk and expected returns may vary with the state of the economy. Therefore many of the problems encountered in previous performance studies reflect the inability of traditional measures to handle the dynamic behaviour of returns. As a consequence Ferson and Schadt (1996) suggest an approach to performance evaluation called conditional performance evaluation which is designed to address this problem. This paper utilises such a conditional measure of performance on a sample of 27 UK property funds, over the period 1987-1998. The results of which suggest that once the time varying nature of the funds beta is corrected for, by the addition of the market indicators, the average fund performance show an improvement over that of the traditional methods of analysis.

Low relative humidity triggers RNA-directed de novo DNA methylation and suppression of genes controlling stomatal development

Environmental cues influence the development of stomata on the leaf epidermis, and allow plants to exert plasticity in leaf stomatal abundance in response to the prevailing growing conditions. It is reported that Arabidopsis thaliana ‘Landsberg erecta’ plants grown under low relative humidity have a reduced stomatal index and that two genes in the stomatal development pathway, SPEECHLESS and FAMA, become de novo cytosine methylated and transcriptionally repressed. These environmentally-induced epigenetic responses were abolished in mutants lacking the capacity for de novo DNA methylation, for the maintenance of CG methylation, and in mutants for the production of short-interfering non-coding RNAs (siRNAs) in the RNA-directed DNA methylation pathway. Induction of methylation was quantitatively related to the induction of local siRNAs under low relative humidity. Our results indicate the involvement of both transcriptional and post-transcriptional gene suppression at these loci in response to environmental stress. Thus, in a physiologically important pathway, a targeted epigenetic response to a specific environmental stress is reported and several of its molecular, mechanistic components are described, providing a tractable platform for future epigenetics experiments. Our findings suggest epigenetic regulation of stomatal development that allows for anatomical and phenotypic plasticity, and may help to explain at least some of the plant’s resilience to fluctuating relative humidity.

Comment on ``Conditional Exceedance Probabilities''

In a recent paper, Mason et al. propose a reliability test of ensemble forecasts for a continuous, scalar verification. As noted in the paper, the test relies on a very specific interpretation of ensembles, namely, that the ensemble members represent quantiles of some underlying distribution. This quantile interpretation is not the only interpretation of ensembles, another popular one being the Monte Carlo interpretation. Mason et al. suggest estimating the quantiles in this situation; however, this approach is fundamentally flawed. Errors in the quantile estimates are not independent of the exceedance events, and consequently the conditional exceedance probabilities (CEP) curves are not constant, which is a fundamental assumption of the test. The test would reject reliable forecasts with probability much higher than the test size.

Conditional transgenic expression of fibroblast growth factor 9 in the adult mouse heart reduces heart failure mortality after myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND: Fibroblast growth factor 9 (FGF9) is secreted from bone marrow cells, which have been shown to improve systolic function after myocardial infarction (MI) in a clinical trial. FGF9 promotes cardiac vascularization during embryonic development but is only weakly expressed in the adult heart. METHODS AND RESULTS: We used a tetracycline-responsive binary transgene system based on the α-myosin heavy chain promoter to test whether conditional expression of FGF9 in the adult myocardium supports adaptation after MI. In sham-operated mice, transgenic FGF9 stimulated left ventricular hypertrophy with microvessel expansion and preserved systolic and diastolic function. After coronary artery ligation, transgenic FGF9 enhanced hypertrophy of the noninfarcted left ventricular myocardium with increased microvessel density, reduced interstitial fibrosis, attenuated fetal gene expression, and improved systolic function. Heart failure mortality after MI was markedly reduced by transgenic FGF9, whereas rupture rates were not affected. Adenoviral FGF9 gene transfer after MI similarly promoted left ventricular hypertrophy with improved systolic function and reduced heart failure mortality. Mechanistically, FGF9 stimulated proliferation and network formation of endothelial cells but induced no direct hypertrophic effects in neonatal or adult rat cardiomyocytes in vitro. FGF9-stimulated endothelial cell supernatants, however, induced cardiomyocyte hypertrophy via paracrine release of bone morphogenetic protein 6. In accord with this observation, expression of bone morphogenetic protein 6 and phosphorylation of its downstream targets SMAD1/5 were increased in the myocardium of FGF9 transgenic mice. CONCLUSIONS: Conditional expression of FGF9 promotes myocardial vascularization and hypertrophy with enhanced systolic function and reduced heart failure mortality after MI. These observations suggest a previously unrecognized therapeutic potential for FGF9 after MI.

Anion-directed template synthesis and hydrolysis of mono-condensed Schiff base of 1,3-pentanediamine ando-hydroxyacetophenone in NiII and CuII Complexes

Bis(o-hydroxyacetophenone)nickel(II) dihydrate, on reaction with 1,3-pentanediamine, yields a bis-chelate complex [NiL2]·2H2O (1) of mono-condensed tridentate Schiff baseligand HL {2-[1-(3-aminopentylimino)ethyl]phenol}. The Schiff base has been freed from the complex by precipitating the NiII as a dimethylglyoximato complex. HL reacts smoothly with Ni(SCN)2·4H2O furnishing the complex [NiL(NCS)] (2) and with CuCl2·2H2O in the presence of NaN3 or NH4SCN producing [CuL(N3)]2 (3) or [CuL(NCS)] (4). On the other hand, upon reaction with Cu(ClO4)2·6H2O and Cu(NO3)2·3H2O, the Schiff base undergoes hydrolysis to yield ternary complexes [Cu(hap)(pn)(H2O)]ClO4 (5) and [Cu(hap)(pn)(H2O)]NO3 (6), respectively (Hhap = o-hydroxyacetophenone and pn = 1,3-pentanediamine). The ligand HL undergoes hydrolysis also on reaction with Ni(ClO4)2·6H2O or Ni(NO3)2·6H2O to yield [Ni(hap)2] (7). The structures of the complexes 2, 3, 5, 6, and 7 have been confirmed by single-crystal X-ray analysis. In complex 2, NiII possesses square-planar geometry, being coordinated by the tridentate mono-negative Schiff base, L and the isothiocyanate group. The coordination environment around CuII in complex 3 is very similar to that in complex 2 but here two units are joined together by end-on, axial-equatorial azide bridges to result in a dimer in which the geometry around CuII is square pyramidal. In both 5 and 6, the CuII atoms display the square-pyramidal environment; the equatorial sites being coordinated by the two amine groups of 1,3-pentanediamine and two oxygen atoms of o-hydroxyacetophenone. The axial site is coordinated by a water molecule. Complex 7 is a square-planar complex with the Ni atom bonded to four oxygen atoms from two hap moieties. The mononuclear units of 2 and dinuclear units of 3 are linked by strong hydrogen bonds to form a one-dimensional network. The mononuclear units of 5 and 6 are joined together to form a dimer by very strong hydrogen bonds through the coordinated water molecule. These dimers are further involved in hydrogen bonding with the respective counteranions to form 2-D net-like open frameworks.