The Ghost of Deflation Past. CEPS Hi-level Brief, 13 December 2013

This note takes a look at the development of monetary aggregates and debt in the G7 (US, UK, France, Germany, Italy, Canada and Japan), plus non-G7 euro-area countries, which have an important bearing on the future development of price levels. It also discusses the problem of restoring external competitiveness in the weaker euro-area countries without aggravating their debt burden. The key conclusions are i) monetary and debt developments in the G7 countries point to relatively sluggish growth but do not signal deflation risks and ii) the realignment of ‘internal real exchange rates’ in the euro area will most likely come through a rise in prices in Germany (and a few other stronger countries). The lessons learned in the early 1930s have made a come-back of deflation quite unlikely.

Searching for harm or harming search? A look at the European Commission’s antitrust investigation against Google. CEPS Special Report No. 118/September 2015

As the European Commission’s antitrust investigation against Google approaches its final stages, its contours and likely outcome remain obscure and blurred by a plethora of nonantitrust-related arguments. At the same time, the initial focus on search neutrality as an antitrust principle seems to have been abandoned by the European Commission, in favour of a more standard allegation of ‘exclusionary abuse’, likely to generate anticompetitive foreclosure of Google’s rivals. This paper discusses search neutrality as an antitrust principle, and then comments on the current investigation based on publicly available information. The paper provides a critical assessment of the likely tests that will be used for the definition of the relevant product market, the criteria for the finding of dominance, the anticompetitive foreclosure test and the possible remedies that the European Commission might choose. Overall, and regardless of the outcome of the Google case, the paper argues that the current treatment of exclusionary abuses in Internet markets is in urgent need of a number of important clarifications, and has been in this condition for more than a decade. The hope is that the European Commission will resist the temptation to imbue the antitrust case with an emphasis and meaning that have nothing to do with antitrust (from industrial policy motives to privacy, copyright or media law arguments) and that, on the contrary, the Commission will devote its efforts to sharpening its understanding of dynamic competition in cyberspace, and the tools that should be applied in the analysis of these peculiar, fast-changing and often elusive settings.

How to get out of the crisis without reforms? The Belarusian authorities confront growing economic problems. OSW Commentary NUMBER 202/21.03.2016

2015 saw a drop in Belarus’s GDP for the first time in almost 20 years, which is primarily the result of a significant reduction in levels of production and export. As a consequence, there was also a serious depletion of the country’s foreign exchange reserves, as well as a progressive weakening of the Belarusian rouble. The macroeconomic figures from January and February 2016 show that these trends are not only continuing, but they are also becoming even more severe, which confirms that Belarus now finds itself in a prolonged economic crisis. On one hand, the reason for this state of affairs is the protracted economic recession in Russia, which is Belarus’s main economic partner, together with the drastic global decline in prices for fuel, which is a key Belarusian export. On the other hand, meanwhile, an equally important reason for the current crisis is the failure of the Belarusian economic model. President Aleksandr Lukashenko, out of fear that his authoritarian system of government will be dismantled and that public discontent will rise, has categorically rejected the proposals for even partial reforms put forward by some of his entourage, who are aware of the need for the immediate transformation of the country’s anachronistic and very costly economic model, based as it still is on quasi-Soviet management policies.

Políticas de salvamento e risco bancário em período de crise

Esta tese analisa, entre 2005 e 2013, o impacto das políticas governamentais de resgate sobre o risco do setor bancário nos países da OCDE. Primeiro, em linha com a hipótese de moral hazard, verifica-se que instituições financeiras com expectativa elevada de bailout, assumem riscos mais elevados do que as demais. Segundo, constata-se que, em períodos normais, garantias de socorro às grandes instituições distorcem a competição no setor e incrementa o risco das demais. Durante a crise, entretanto, mostra-se que elevações na expectativa de resgate dos concorrentes de uma instituição, à medida que representa uma redução em sua chance de eventual socorro governamental, diminuem sua tomada de riscos. Adicionalmente, em período de crise também é evidenciado que: reduções na capacidade financeira dos países estão associadas a menor assunção de riscos; em média, o aumento na tomada de riscos é maior nos países com menor spread de Credit Default Swap.

Essays on the Analysis of Dynamic Games

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-06

Tennis, incidence of URTI and salivary IgA

Tennis played at an elite level requires intensive training characterized by repeated bouts of brief intermittent high intensity exercise over relatively long periods of time (1 - 3 h or more). Competition can place additional stress on players. The purpose of this study was to investigate the temporal association between specific components of tennis training and competition, the incidence of upper respiratory tract infections (URT1), and salivary IgA, in a cohort of seventeen elite female tennis players. Timed, whole unstimulated saliva samples were collected before and after selected 1-h training sessions at 2 weekly intervals, over 12 weeks. Salivary IgA concentration was measured by ELISA and IgA secretion rate calculated (mug IgA x ml(-1) x ml saliva x min(-1)). Players reported URTI symptoms and recorded training and competition in daily logs. Data analysis showed that higher incidence of URTI was significantly associated with increased training duration and load, and competition level, on a weekly basis. Salivary IgA secretion rate (S-IgA) dropped significantly after 1 hour of tennis play. Over the 12-week period, pre-exercise salivary IgA concentration and secretion rate were directly associated with the amount of training undertaken during the previous day and week (p < 0.05). However, the decline in S-IgA after 1 h of intense tennis play was also positively related to the duration and load of training undertaken during the previous day and week (p < 0.05). Although exercise-induced suppression of salivary IgA may be a risk factor, it could not accurately predict the occurrence of URTI in this cohort of athletes.

Towards an understanding of creativity and innovation within professional services and marketing

Greatly increased competition in the professional services and marketing sectors has reinforced the need for firms to develop an organisational culture that facilitates adaptation to changing conditions and competitive threats. More generally, competitive changes within business environments require new and creative ways of organising and managing firms. In order for marketing practitioners to be ahead of competitors in identifying and meeting customer needs, creative thought is essential. An organisational culture that supports creativity and facilitates the adoption of innovative practices, products and services, improves a firm’s ability to remain competitive within an uncertain environment. This paper presents a conceptual model of an organisational culture supporting creativity and innovation. The model posits relationships between creativity and innovation and organisational performance. The main contribution of the paper is to build a foundation for future research directed primarily towards exploring the relationships in the theoretical model of interest. Implications for marketing practitioners are also considered.

The knowledge competitiveness of regional economies: conceptualisation and measurement

Whereas the competitive advantage of firms can arise from size and position within their industry as well as physical assets, the pattern of competition in advanced economies has increasingly come to favour those firms that can mobilise knowledge and technological skills to create novelty in their products. At the same time, regions are attracting growing attention as an economic unit of analysis, with firms increasingly locating their functions in select regions within the global space. This article introduces the concept of knowledge competitiveness, defined as an economy’s knowledge capacity, capability and sustainability, and the extent to which this knowledge is translated into economic value and transferred into the wealth of the citizens. The article discusses the way in which the knowledge competitiveness of regions is measured and further introduces the World Knowledge Competitiveness Index, which is the first composite and relative measure of the knowledge competitiveness of the globe’s best performing regions.

Associative knowledge controls deployment of visual selective attention

According to some models of visual selective attention, objects in a scene activate corresponding neural representations, which compete for perceptual awareness and motor behavior. During a visual search for a target object, top-down control exerted by working memory representations of the target's defining properties resolves competition in favor of the target. These models, however, ignore the existence of associative links among object representations. Here we show that such associations can strongly influence deployment of attention in humans. In the context of visual search, objects associated with the target were both recalled more often and recognized more accurately than unrelated distractors. Notably, both target and associated objects competitively weakened recognition of unrelated distractors and slowed responses to a luminance probe. Moreover, in a speeded search protocol, associated objects rendered search both slower and less accurate. Finally, the first saccades after onset of the stimulus array were more often directed toward associated than control items.

Chain-store pricing and the structure of retail markets

This paper investigates competition between chain-stores and independents in the UK opticians' industry, using the relationship between the number of outlets present in a local market and the market size. Chain-stores are shown to have a significant effect on local market competition. In addition, the empirical approach is extended to allow inferences on the nature and extent of product differentiation. The results are broadly consistent with a model of vertical product differentiation in which chain-stores adopt national pricing strategies. The evidence suggests that the nature of competition between independent retailers depends on whether a chain-store is present.

Increasing competitiveness of third party logistics with RFID

Competition in the 3PL market continues to intensify as providers compete to win and retain clients. 3PL providers are required to reduce costs while offering tailored innovative logistical solutions in order to remain competitive. 3PL providers can reduce costs through the consolidation of assets and introduction of cross-docking activities. Innovative logistical services can be tailored to each client via the introduction of real-time data updates. This paper highlights that RFID enabled RTE can assist in improvements of both these areas through increased network visibility. A framework is presented where the 3PL provider focuses on asset reduction, asset utilisation, real-time data employment and RTE cycle time reduction in order to enhance competitiveness. © 2011 IEEE.

Multiwavelength fiber laser with fine adjustment, based on nonlinear polarization rotation and birefringence fiber filter

We have proposed and demonstrated a multiwavelength fiber laser based on nonlinear polarization rotation (NPR). The mechanism for stable room-temperature multiwavelength operation contributes to the ability of the intensity-dependent loss in NPR to effectively alleviate mode competition. In addition, through tuning the birefringence fiber filter, the lasing wavelength can be accurately tuned in the free spectrum range of the in-line periodic filter.

Multiwavelength fiber laser based on nonlinear polarization rotation

Multiwavelength fiber laser is a perfect light source for future wavelength-division-multiplexing optical communication systems. A multiwavelength fiber laser based on nonlinear polarization rotation with up to 18 wavelengths has been proposed and demonstrated. The intensity- and wavelength-dependent loss induced by nonlinear polarization rotation effect is used to alleviate the mode competition in the homogeneous broadening gain medium of erbium-doped fiber. Instead of traditional filters, a polarization-maintaining fiber is inserted into the laser cavity, with which the polarization-dependent isolator composes an equivalent Lyot birefringent fiber filter. The in-line birefringence fiber filter is used to simplify the laser configuration, which benefits systematic integration. The effect of the 980 nm pump power on the multiwavelength generation is investigated. It is shown that the pump power contributes a lot to the evenness of the multiwavelength spectra due to the intensity dependence of nonlinear polarization rotation effect.

Multiwavelength fiber laser based on nonlinear polarization rotation

Multiwavelength fiber laser is a perfect light source for future wavelength-division-multiplexing optical communication systems. A multiwavelength fiber laser based on nonlinear polarization rotation with up to 18 wavelengths has been proposed and demonstrated. The intensity- and wavelength-dependent loss induced by nonlinear polarization rotation effect is used to alleviate the mode competition in the homogeneous broadening gain medium of erbium-doped fiber. Instead of traditional filters, a polarization-maintaining fiber is inserted into the laser cavity, with which the polarization-dependent isolator composes an equivalent Lyot birefringent fiber filter. The in-line birefringence fiber filter is used to simplify the laser configuration, which benefits systematic integration. The effect of the 980 nm pump power on the multiwavelength generation is investigated. It is shown that the pump power contributes a lot to the evenness of the multiwavelength spectra due to the intensity dependence of nonlinear polarization rotation effect.

Multiwavelength fiber laser with fine adjustment, based on nonlinear polarization rotation and birefringence fiber filter

We have proposed and demonstrated a multiwavelength fiber laser based on nonlinear polarization rotation (NPR). The mechanism for stable room-temperature multiwavelength operation contributes to the ability of the intensity-dependent loss in NPR to effectively alleviate mode competition. In addition, through tuning the birefringence fiber filter, the lasing wavelength can be accurately tuned in the free spectrum range of the in-line periodic filter.