The large-scale circulation change at the end of the Baiu season in Japan as seen in ERA40 data

The time evolution of the circulation change at the end of the Baiu season is investigated using ERA40 data. An end-day is defined for each of the 23 years based on the 850 hPa θe value at 40˚Nin the 130-140˚E sector exceeding 330 K. Daily time series of variables are composited with respect to this day. These composite time-series exhibit a clearer and more rapid change in the precipitation and the large-scale circulation over the whole East Asia region than those performed using calendar days. The precipitation change includes the abrupt end of the Baiu rain, the northward shift of tropical convection perhaps starting a few days before this, and the start of the heavier rain at higher latitudes. The northward migration of lower tropospheric warm, moist tropical air, a general feature of the seasonal march in the region, is fast over the continent and slow over the ocean. By mid to late July the cooler air over the Sea of Japan is surrounded on 3 sides by the tropical air. It is suggestive that the large-scale stage has been set for a jump to the post-Baiu state, i.e., for the end of the Baiu season. Two likely triggers for the actual change emerge from the analysis. The first is the northward movement of tropical convection into the Philippine region. The second is an equivalent barotropic Rossby wave-train, that over a 10-day period develops downstream across Eurasia. It appears likely that in most years one or both mechanisms can be important in triggering the actual end of the Baiu season.

Rescuing a telecom giant from the jaws of bankruptcy: a case study and an interview with Sir Richard Lapthorne, chairman of Cable & Wireless

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate key strategic decisions involved in turning around a large multinational operating in a dynamic market. Design/methodology/approach – The paper is based on analysis of archival documents and a semi-structured interview with the chairman of the company credited with its rescue. Findings – Turnaround is complex and involves both planned and emergent strategies. The progress is non-linear requiring adjustment and change in direction of travel. Top management credibility and vision is critical to success. Rescue is only possible if the company has a strong cash generative business among its businesses. The speed of decision making, decisiveness and the ability to implement strategy are among the key ingredients of success. Originality/value – Turnaround is an under-researched area in strategy. This paper contributes to a better understanding in this important area and bridges the gap between theory and practice. It provides a practical view and demonstrates how a leading executive with significant expertise and successful turnaround track record deals with inherent dilemmas of turnaround

The impracticality of a universal drought definition

This paper demonstrates the impracticality of a comprehensive mathematical definition of the term `drought' which formalises the general qualitative definition that drought is `a deficit of water relative to normal conditions'. Starting from the local water balance, it is shown that a universal description of drought requires reference to water supply, demand and management. The influence of human intervention through water management is shown to be intrinsic to the definition of drought in the universal sense and can only be eliminated in the case of purely meteorological drought. The state of `drought' is shown to be predicated on the existence of climatological norms for a multitude of process specific terms. In general these norms are either difficult to obtain or even non-existent in the non-stationary context of climate change. Such climatological considerations, in conjunction with the difficulty of quantifying human influence, lead to the conclusion that we cannot reasonably expect the existence of any workable generalised objective definition of drought.

On SETAR non-linearity and forecasting

We compare linear autoregressive (AR) models and self-exciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models in terms of their point forecast performance, and their ability to characterize the uncertainty surrounding those forecasts, i.e. interval or density forecasts. A two-regime SETAR process is used as the data-generating process in an extensive set of Monte Carlo simulations, and we consider the discriminatory power of recently developed methods of forecast evaluation for different degrees of non-linearity. We find that the interval and density evaluation methods are unlikely to show the linear model to be deficient on samples of the size typical for macroeconomic data

Analysis of incoherent scatter radar data from non-thermal F-region plasma

A procedure is presented for fitting incoherent scatter radar data from non-thermal F-region ionospheric plasma, using theoretical spectra previously predicted. It is found that values of the shape distortion factor D∗, associated with deviations of the ion velocity distribution from a Maxwellian distribution, and ion temperatures can be deduced (the results being independent of the path of iteration) if the angle between the line-of-sight and the geomagnetic field is larger than about 15–20°. The procedure can be used with one or both of two sets of assumptions. These concern the validity of the adopted model for the line-of-sight ion velocity distribution in the one case or for the full three-dimensional ion velocity distribution function in the other. The distribution function employed was developed to describe the line-of-sight velocity distribution for large aspect angles, but both experimental data and Monte Carlo simulations indicate that the form of the field-perpendicular distribution can also describe the distribution at more general aspect angles. The assumption of this form for the line-of-sight velocity distribution at a general aspect angle enables rigorous derivation of values of the one-dimensional, line-of-sight ion temperature. With some additional assumptions (principally that the field-parallel distribution is always Maxwellian and there is a simple relationship between the ion temperature anisotropy and the distortion of the field-perpendicular distribution from a Maxwellian), fits to data for large aspect angles enable determination of line-of-sight temperatures at all aspect angles and hence, of the average ion temperature and the ion temperature anisotropy. For small aspect angles, the analysis is restricted to the determination of the line-of-sight ion temperature because the theoretical spectrum is insensitive to non-thermal effects when the plasma is viewed along directions almost parallel to the magnetic field. This limitation is expected to apply to any realistic model of the ion velocity distribution function and its consequences are discussed. Fit strategies which allow for mixed ion composition are also considered. Examples of fits to data from various EISCAT observing programmes are presented.

A Posteriori analysis of discontinuous Galerkin schemes for systems of hyperbolic conservation laws

In this work we construct reliable a posteriori estimates for some semi- (spatially) discrete discontinuous Galerkin schemes applied to nonlinear systems of hyperbolic conservation laws. We make use of appropriate reconstructions of the discrete solution together with the relative entropy stability framework, which leads to error control in the case of smooth solutions. The methodology we use is quite general and allows for a posteriori control of discontinuous Galerkin schemes with standard flux choices which appear in the approximation of conservation laws. In addition to the analysis, we conduct some numerical benchmarking to test the robustness of the resultant estimator.

Population structure and associated phenotypes of Salmonella enterica serovars Derby and Mbandaka overlap with host range

BACKGROUND:The Salmonella enterica serovar Derby is frequently isolated from pigs and turkeys whereas serovar Mbandaka is frequently isolated from cattle, chickens and animal feed in the UK. Through comparative genomics, phenomics and mutant construction we previously suggested possible mechanistic reasons why these serovars demonstrate apparently distinct host ranges. Here, we investigate the genetic and phenotypic diversity of these two serovars in the UK. We produce a phylogenetic reconstruction and perform several biochemical assays on isolates of S. Derby and S. Mbandaka acquired from sites across the UK between the years 2000 and 2010. RESULTS:We show that UK isolates of S. Mbandaka comprise of one clonal lineage which is adapted to proficient utilisation of metabolites found in soya beans under ambient conditions. We also show that this clonal lineage forms a biofilm at 25 °C, suggesting that this serovar maybe well adapted to survival ex vivo, growing in animal feed. Conversely, we show that S. Derby is made of two distinct lineages, L1 and L2. These lineages differ genotypically and phenotypically, being divided by the presence and absence of SPI-23 and the ability to more proficiently invade porcine jejunum derived cell line IPEC-J2. CONCLUSION:The results of this study lend support to the hypothesis that the differences in host ranges of S. Derby and S. Mbandaka are adaptations to pathogenesis, environmental persistence, as well as utilisation of metabolites abundant in their respective host environments.

Detection of a New Yellow Fever Virus Lineage Within the South American Genotype I in Brazil

Nucleotide sequences of two regions of the genomes of 11 yellow fever virus (YFV) samples isolated from monkeys or humans with symptomatic yellow fever (YF) in Brazil in 2000,2004, and 2008 were determined with the objective of establishing the genotypes and studying the genetic variation. Results of the Bayesian phylogenetic analysis showed that sequences generated from strains from 2004 and 2008 formed a new subclade within the clade 1 of the South American genotype I. The new subgroup is here designated as 1E. Sequences of YFV strains recovered in 2000 belong to the subclade 1D, which comprises previously characterized YFV strains from Brazil. Molecular dating analyses suggested that the new subclade 1E started diversifying from 1D about 1975 and that the most recent 2004-2008 isolates arose about 1985. J. Med. Virol. 82:175-185, 2010. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961-1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071-2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5A degrees N-15A degrees S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6-8A degrees C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4A degrees C and in winter between 3 and 5A degrees C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.

UBE2A Deficiency Syndrome: Mild to Severe Intellectual Disability Accompanied by Seizures, Absent Speech, Urogenital, and Skin Anomalies in Male Patients

We describe three patients with a comparable deletion encompassing SLC25A43, SLC25A5, CXorf56, UBE2A, NKRF, and two non-coding RNA genes, U1 and LOC100303728. Moderate to severe intellectual disability (ID), psychomotor retardation, severely impaired/absent speech, seizures, and urogenital anomalies were present in all three patients. Facial dysmorphisms include ocular hypertelorism, synophrys, and a depressed nasal bridge. These clinical features overlap with those described in two patients from a family with a similar deletion at Xq24 that also includes UBE2A, and in several patients of Brazilian and Polish families with point mutations in UBE2A. Notably, all five patients with an Xq24 deletion have ventricular septal defects that are not present inpatients with a point mutation, which might be attributed to the deletion of SLC25A5. Taken together, the UBE2A deficiency syndrome in male patients with a mutation in or a deletion of UBE2A is characterized by ID, absent speech, seizures, urogenital anomalies, frequently including a small penis, and skin abnormalities, which include generalized hirsutism, low posterior hairline, myxedematous appearance, widely spaced nipples, and hair whorls. Facial dysmorphisms include a wide face, a depressed nasal bridge, a large mouth with downturned corners, thin vermilion, and a short, broad neck. (C) 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Mitochondrial sequence data and Dipsacales phylogeny: Mixed models, partitioned Bayesian analyses, and model selection

Phylogenetic analyses of chloroplast DNA sequences, morphology, and combined data have provided consistent support for many of the major branches within the angiosperm, clade Dipsacales. Here we use sequences from three mitochondrial loci to test the existing broad scale phylogeny and in an attempt to resolve several relationships that have remained uncertain. Parsimony, maximum likelihood, and Bayesian analyses of a combined mitochondrial data set recover trees broadly consistent with previous studies, although resolution and support are lower than in the largest chloroplast analyses. Combining chloroplast and mitochondrial data results in a generally well-resolved and very strongly supported topology but the previously recognized problem areas remain. To investigate why these relationships have been difficult to resolve we conducted a series of experiments using different data partitions and heterogeneous substitution models. Usually more complex modeling schemes are favored regardless of the partitions recognized but model choice had little effect on topology or support values. In contrast there are consistent but weakly supported differences in the topologies recovered from coding and non-coding matrices. These conflicts directly correspond to relationships that were poorly resolved in analyses of the full combined chloroplast-mitochondrial data set. We suggest incongruent signal has contributed to our inability to confidently resolve these problem areas. (c) 2007 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Toward a resolution of Campanulid phylogeny, with special reference to the placement of Dipsacales

Broad-scale phylogenetic analyses of the angiosperms and of the Asteridae have failed to confidently resolve relationships among the major lineages of the campanulid Asteridae (i.e., the euasterid II of APG II, 2003). To address this problem we assembled presently available sequences for a core set of 50 taxa, representing the diversity of the four largest lineages (Apiales, Aquifoliales, Asterales, Dipsacales) as well as the smaller ""unplaced"" groups (e.g., Bruniaceae, Paracryphiaceae, Columelliaceae). We constructed four data matrices for phylogenetic analysis: a chloroplast coding matrix (atpB, matK, ndhF, rbcL), a chloroplast non-coding matrix (rps16 intron, trnT-F region, trnV-atpE IGS), a combined chloroplast dataset (all seven chloroplast regions), and a combined genome matrix (seven chloroplast regions plus 18S and 26S rDNA). Bayesian analyses of these datasets using mixed substitution models produced often well-resolved and supported trees. Consistent with more weakly supported results from previous studies, our analyses support the monophyly of the four major clades and the relationships among them. Most importantly, Asterales are inferred to be sister to a clade containing Apiales and Dipsacales. Paracryphiaceae is consistently placed sister to the Dipsacales. However, the exact relationships of Bruniaceae, Columelliaceae, and an Escallonia clade depended upon the dataset. Areas of poor resolution in combined analyses may be partly explained by conflict between the coding and non-coding data partitions. We discuss the implications of these results for our understanding of campanulid phylogeny and evolution, paying special attention to how our findings bear on character evolution and biogeography in Dipsacales.

NAD Biosynthesis Evolution in Bacteria: Lateral Gene Transfer of Kynurenine Pathway in Xanthomonadales and Flavobacteriales

The biosynthesis of quinolinate, the de novo precursor of nicotinamide adenine dinucleotide (NAD), may be performed by two distinct pathways, namely, the bacterial aspartate (aspartate-to-quinolinate) and the eukaryotic kynurenine (tryptophan-to-quinolinate). Even though the separation into eukaryotic and bacterial routes is long established, recent genomic surveys have challenged this view, because certain bacterial species also carry the genes for the kynurenine pathway. In this work, both quinolinate biosynthetic pathways were investigated in the Bacteria clade and with special attention to Xanthomonadales and Bacteroidetes, from an evolutionary viewpoint. Genomic screening has revealed that a small number of bacterial species possess some of the genes for the kynurenine pathway, which is complete in the genus Xanthomonas and in the order Flavobacteriales, where the aspartate pathway is absent. The opposite pattern (presence of the aspartate pathway and absence of the kynurenine pathway) in close relatives (Xylella ssp. and the order Bacteroidales, respectively) points to the idea of a recent acquisition of the kynurenine pathway through lateral gene transfer in these bacterial groups. In fact, sequence similarity comparison and phylogenetic reconstruction both suggest that at least part of the genes of the kynurenine pathway in Xanthomonas and Flavobacteriales is shared by eukaryotes. These results reinforce the idea of the role that lateral gene transfer plays in the configuration of bacterial genomes, thereby providing alternative metabolic pathways, even with the replacement of primary and essential cell functions, as exemplified by NAD biosynthesis.

Estimating the number of ozone peaks in Mexico City using a non-homogeneous Poisson model

In this paper, we consider the problem of estimating the number of times an air quality standard is exceeded in a given period of time. A non-homogeneous Poisson model is proposed to analyse this issue. The rate at which the Poisson events occur is given by a rate function lambda(t), t >= 0. This rate function also depends on some parameters that need to be estimated. Two forms of lambda(t), t >= 0 are considered. One of them is of the Weibull form and the other is of the exponentiated-Weibull form. The parameters estimation is made using a Bayesian formulation based on the Gibbs sampling algorithm. The assignation of the prior distributions for the parameters is made in two stages. In the first stage, non-informative prior distributions are considered. Using the information provided by the first stage, more informative prior distributions are used in the second one. The theoretical development is applied to data provided by the monitoring network of Mexico City. The rate function that best fit the data varies according to the region of the city and/or threshold that is considered. In some cases the best fit is the Weibull form and in other cases the best option is the exponentiated-Weibull. Copyright (C) 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Aging and stationary properties of non-equilibrium symmetrical three-state models

We consider a non-equilibrium three-state model whose dynamics is Markovian and displays the same symmetry as the three-state Potts model, i.e. the transition rates are invariant under the cyclic permutation of the states. Unlike the Potts model, detailed balance is, in general, not satisfied. The aging and the stationary properties of the model defined on a square lattice are obtained by means of large-scale Monte Carlo simulations. We show that the phase diagram presents a critical line, belonging to the three-state Potts universality class, that ends at a point whose universality class is that of the Voter model. Aging is considered on the critical line, at the Voter point and in the ferromagnetic phase.