A dynamical system approach to data assimilation in chaotic models

The Assimilation in the Unstable Subspace (AUS) was introduced by Trevisan and Uboldi in 2004, and developed by Trevisan, Uboldi and Carrassi, to minimize the analysis and forecast errors by exploiting the flow-dependent instabilities of the forecast-analysis cycle system, which may be thought of as a system forced by observations. In the AUS scheme the assimilation is obtained by confining the analysis increment in the unstable subspace of the forecast-analysis cycle system so that it will have the same structure of the dominant instabilities of the system. The unstable subspace is estimated by Breeding on the Data Assimilation System (BDAS). AUS- BDAS has already been tested in realistic models and observational configurations, including a Quasi-Geostrophicmodel and a high dimensional, primitive equation ocean model; the experiments include both fixed and“adaptive”observations. In these contexts, the AUS-BDAS approach greatly reduces the analysis error, with reasonable computational costs for data assimilation with respect, for example, to a prohibitive full Extended Kalman Filter. This is a follow-up study in which we revisit the AUS-BDAS approach in the more basic, highly nonlinear Lorenz 1963 convective model. We run observation system simulation experiments in a perfect model setting, and with two types of model error as well: random and systematic. In the different configurations examined, and in a perfect model setting, AUS once again shows better efficiency than other advanced data assimilation schemes. In the present study, we develop an iterative scheme that leads to a significant improvement of the overall assimilation performance with respect also to standard AUS. In particular, it boosts the efficiency of regime’s changes tracking, with a low computational cost. Other data assimilation schemes need estimates of ad hoc parameters, which have to be tuned for the specific model at hand. In Numerical Weather Prediction models, tuning of parameters — and in particular an estimate of the model error covariance matrix — may turn out to be quite difficult. Our proposed approach, instead, may be easier to implement in operational models.

Seizure prediction and control in epilepsy

The first part of my thesis presents an overview of the different approaches used in the past two decades in the attempt to forecast epileptic seizure on the basis of intracranial and scalp EEG. Past research could reveal some value of linear and nonlinear algorithms to detect EEG features changing over different phases of the epileptic cycle. However, their exact value for seizure prediction, in terms of sensitivity and specificity, is still discussed and has to be evaluated. In particular, the monitored EEG features may fluctuate with the vigilance state and lead to false alarms. Recently, such a dependency on vigilance states has been reported for some seizure prediction methods, suggesting a reduced reliability. An additional factor limiting application and validation of most seizure-prediction techniques is their computational load. For the first time, the reliability of permutation entropy [PE] was verified in seizure prediction on scalp EEG data, contemporarily controlling for its dependency on different vigilance states. PE was recently introduced as an extremely fast and robust complexity measure for chaotic time series and thus suitable for online application even in portable systems. The capability of PE to distinguish between preictal and interictal state has been demonstrated using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) analysis. Correlation analysis was used to assess dependency of PE on vigilance states. Scalp EEG-Data from two right temporal epileptic lobe (RTLE) patients and from one patient with right frontal lobe epilepsy were analysed. The last patient was included only in the correlation analysis, since no datasets including seizures have been available for him. The ROC analysis showed a good separability of interictal and preictal phases for both RTLE patients, suggesting that PE could be sensitive to EEG modifications, not visible on visual inspection, that might occur well in advance respect to the EEG and clinical onset of seizures. However, the simultaneous assessment of the changes in vigilance showed that: a) all seizures occurred in association with the transition of vigilance states; b) PE was sensitive in detecting different vigilance states, independently of seizure occurrences. Due to the limitations of the datasets, these results cannot rule out the capability of PE to detect preictal states. However, the good separability between pre- and interictal phases might depend exclusively on the coincidence of epileptic seizure onset with a transition from a state of low vigilance to a state of increased vigilance. The finding of a dependency of PE on vigilance state is an original finding, not reported in literature, and suggesting the possibility to classify vigilance states by means of PE in an authomatic and objectic way. The second part of my thesis provides the description of a novel behavioral task based on motor imagery skills, firstly introduced (Bruzzo et al. 2007), in order to study mental simulation of biological and non-biological movement in paranoid schizophrenics (PS). Immediately after the presentation of a real movement, participants had to imagine or re-enact the very same movement. By key release and key press respectively, participants had to indicate when they started and ended the mental simulation or the re-enactment, making it feasible to measure the duration of the simulated or re-enacted movements. The proportional error between duration of the re-enacted/simulated movement and the template movement were compared between different conditions, as well as between PS and healthy subjects. Results revealed a double dissociation between the mechanisms of mental simulation involved in biological and non-biologial movement simulation. While for PS were found large errors for simulation of biological movements, while being more acurate than healthy subjects during simulation of non-biological movements. Healthy subjects showed the opposite relationship, making errors during simulation of non-biological movements, but being most accurate during simulation of non-biological movements. However, the good timing precision during re-enactment of the movements in all conditions and in both groups of participants suggests that perception, memory and attention, as well as motor control processes were not affected. Based upon a long history of literature reporting the existence of psychotic episodes in epileptic patients, a longitudinal study, using a slightly modified behavioral paradigm, was carried out with two RTLE patients, one patient with idiopathic generalized epilepsy and one patient with extratemporal lobe epilepsy. Results provide strong evidence for a possibility to predict upcoming seizures in RTLE patients behaviorally. In the last part of the thesis it has been validated a behavioural strategy based on neurobiofeedback training, to voluntarily control seizures and to reduce there frequency. Three epileptic patients were included in this study. The biofeedback was based on monitoring of slow cortical potentials (SCPs) extracted online from scalp EEG. Patients were trained to produce positive shifts of SCPs. After a training phase patients were monitored for 6 months in order to validate the ability of the learned strategy to reduce seizure frequency. Two of the three refractory epileptic patients recruited for this study showed improvements in self-management and reduction of ictal episodes, even six months after the last training session.

Piattaforma off-shore : progettazione delle procedure di movement e lifting relative al lower level deck section 1 e section 2

Progettazione delle procedure necessarie alla realizzazione di piattaforme off-shore, grandi e complesse strutture intelaiate di pilastri, diagonali, travi primarie e travi secondarie, progettate per insediarsi in ambiente marino ed idonee ad ospitare impianti per l'estrazione di idrocarburi. Durante la fase di progettazione si procede con l'ideare la struttura della piattaforma fino a definire le caratteristiche di ogni componente: tale fase ha come esito la redazione dei project drawings (disegni di progetto). La fase di realizzazione è quella che interessa propriamente il lavoro svolto: a seguito della progettazione infatti emergono nuove problematiche a livello applicativo e costruttivo che necessitano di essere studiate e risolte preventivamente alla costruzione fisica dell'opera. In particolar modo è necessario definire quali parti della struttura possono essere acquistate e quali invece devono essere realizzate su misura. Definite le modalità costruttive, viene effettuato lo studio riguardante la movimentazione dei vari piani della piattaforma, movement, e successivamente le problematiche relative al sollevamento degli stessi, lifting. Le due procedure necessitano di raffinate valutazioni euristiche ed analitiche per garantire che la struttura non collassi.

Evolutionary tendencies in flowers of Marantaceae with special reference to the style movement mechanism

One of the quickest plant movements ever known is made by the ´explosive´ style in Marantaceae in the service of secondary pollen presentation – herewith showing a striking apomorphy to the sister Cannaceae that might be of high evolutionary consequence. Though known already since the beginning of the 19th century the underlying mechanism of the movement has hitherto not been clarified. The present study reports about the biomechanics of the style-staminode complex and the hydraulic principles of the movement. For the first time it is shown by experiment that in Maranta noctiflora through longitudinal growth of the maturing style in the ´straitjacket´ of the hooded staminode both the hold of the style prior to its release and its tensioning for the movement are brought about. The longer the style grows in relation to the enclosing hooded staminode the more does its capacity for curling up for pollen transfer increase. Hereby I distinguish between the ´basic tension´ that a growing style builds up anyway, even when the hooded staminode is removed beforehand, and the ´induced tension´ which comes about only under the pressure of a ´too short´ hooded staminode and which enables the movement. The results of these investigations are discussed in view of previous interpretations ranging from possible biomechanical to electrophysiological mechanisms. To understand furthermore by which means the style gives way to the strong bending movement without suffering outwardly visible damage I examined its anatomical structure in several genera for its mechanical and hydraulic properties and for the determination of the entire curvature after release. The actual bending part contains tubulate cells whose walls are extraordinarily porous and large longitudinal intercellular spaces. SEM indicates the starting points of cell-wall loosening in primary walls and lysis of middle lamellae - probably through an intense pectinase activity in the maturing style. Fluorescence pictures of macerated and living style-tissue confirm cell-wall perforations that do apparently connect neighbouring cells, which leads to an extremely permeable parenchyma. The ´water-body´ can be shifted from central to dorsal cell layers to support the bending. The geometrical form of the curvature is determined by the vascular bundles. I conclude that the style in Marantaceae contains no ´antagonistic´ motile tissues as in Mimosa or Dionaea. Instead, through self-maceration it develops to a ´hydraulic tissue´ which carries out an irreversible movement through a sudden reshaping. To ascertain the evolutionary consequence of this apomorphic pollination mechanism the diversity and systematic value of hooded staminodes are examined. For this hooded staminodes of 24 genera are sorted according to a minimalistic selection of shape characters and eight morphological types are abstracted from the resulting groups. These types are mapped onto an already available maximally parsimonious tree comprising five major clades. An amazing correspondence is found between the morphological types and the clades; several sister-relationships are confirmed and in cases of uncertain position possible evolutionary pathways, such as convergence, dispersal or re-migration, are discussed, as well as the great evolutionary tendencies for the entire family in which – at least as regards the shape of hooded staminodes – there is obviously a tendency from complicated to strongly simplified forms. It suggests itself that such simplifying derivations may very likely have taken place as adaptations to pollinating animals about which at present too little is known. The value of morphological characters in relation to modern phylogenetic analysis is discussed and conditions for the selection of morphological characters valuable for a systematic grouping are proposed. Altogether, in view of the evolutionary success of Marantaceae compared with Cannaceae the movement mechanism of the style-staminode complex can safely be considered a key innovation within the order Zingiberales.

Analysis of the Slow Food movement impact on the farmers and rural areas’ sustainable development

The evaluation of the farmers’ communities’ approach to the Slow Food vision, their perception of the Slow Food role in supporting their activity and their appreciation and expectations from participating in the event of Mother Earth were studied. The Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) model was adopted in an agro-food sector context. A survey was conducted, 120 questionnaires from farmers attending the Mother Earth in Turin in 2010 were collected. The descriptive statistical analysis showed that both Slow Food membership and participation to Mother Earth Meeting were much appreciated for the support provided to their business and the contribution to a more sustainable and fair development. A positive social, environmental and psychological impact on farmers also resulted. Results showed also an interesting perspective on the possible universality of the Slow Food and Mother Earth values. Farmers declared that Slow Food is supporting them by preserving the biodiversity and orienting them to the use of local resources and reducing the chemical inputs. Many farmers mentioned the language/culture and administration/bureaucratic issues as an obstacle to be a member in the movement and to participate to the event. Participation to Mother Earth gives an opportunity to exchange information with other farmers’ communities and to participate to seminars and debates, helpful for their business development. The absolute majority of positive answers associated to the farmers’ willingness to relate to Slow Food and participate to the next Mother Earth editions negatively influenced the UTAUT model results. A factor analysis showed that the variables associated to the UTAUT model constructs Performance Expectancy and Effort Expectancy were consistent, able to explain the construct variability, and their measurement reliable. Their inclusion in a simplest Technology Acceptance Model could be considered in future researches.

From inverted pendulum to N-link chain: inertial sensors-based assessment of movement kinematics and dynamics for functional evaluation and rehabilitation

Despite several clinical tests that have been developed to qualitatively describe complex motor tasks by functional testing, these methods often depend on clinicians' interpretation, experience and training, which make the assessment results inconsistent, without the precision required to objectively assess the effect of the rehabilitative intervention. A more detailed characterization is required to fully capture the various aspects of motor control and performance during complex movements of lower and upper limbs. The need for cost-effective and clinically applicable instrumented tests would enable quantitative assessment of performance on a subject-specific basis, overcoming the limitations due to the lack of objectiveness related to individual judgment, and possibly disclosing subtle alterations that are not clearly visible to the observer. Postural motion measurements at additional locations, such as lower and upper limbs and trunk, may be necessary in order to obtain information about the inter-segmental coordination during different functional tests involved in clinical practice. With these considerations in mind, this Thesis aims: i) to suggest a novel quantitative assessment tool for the kinematics and dynamics evaluation of a multi-link kinematic chain during several functional motor tasks (i.e. squat, sit-to-stand, postural sway), using one single-axis accelerometer per segment, ii) to present a novel quantitative technique for the upper limb joint kinematics estimation, considering a 3-link kinematic chain during the Fugl-Meyer Motor Assessment and using one inertial measurement unit per segment. The suggested methods could have several positive feedbacks from clinical practice. The use of objective biomechanical measurements, provided by inertial sensor-based technique, may help clinicians to: i) objectively track changes in motor ability, ii) provide timely feedback about the effectiveness of administered rehabilitation interventions, iii) enable intervention strategies to be modified or changed if found to be ineffective, and iv) speed up the experimental sessions when several subjects are asked to perform different functional tests.

Movement Analysis by means of inertial sensors: from bench to bedside

in the everyday clinical practice. Having this in mind, the choice of a simple setup would not be enough because, even if the setup is quick and simple, the instrumental assessment would still be in addition to the daily routine. The will to overcome this limit has led to the idea of instrumenting already existing and widely used functional tests. In this way the sensor based assessment becomes an integral part of the clinical assessment. Reliable and validated signal processing methods have been successfully implemented in Personal Health Systems based on smartphone technology. At the end of this research project there is evidence that such solution can really and easily used in clinical practice in both supervised and unsupervised settings. Smartphone based solution, together or in place of dedicated wearable sensing units, can truly become a pervasive and low-cost means for providing suitable testing solutions for quantitative movement analysis with a clear clinical value, ultimately providing enhanced balance and mobility support to an aging population.

Tra pacifismo e ambientalismo: il Nuclear Freeze Movement e la risposta dell'amministrazione Reagan

Negli anni Ottanta si assiste tanto nel vecchio quanto nel nuovo continente alla rinascita del movimento antinucleare. Mentre in Europa l’origine di questa ondata di proteste antinucleari è collegata alla “doppia decisione” NATO del 1979, negli Stati Uniti la genesi si colloca nel contesto dalla mobilitazione dei gruppi ambientalisti in seguito all’incidente alla centrale nucleare di Three Mile Island. Dopo l’elezione di Ronald Reagan, alle proteste contro le applicazioni pacifiche dell’atomo si affiancarono quelle contro la politica nucleare del Paese. La retorica di Reagan, il massiccio piano di riarmo, unitamente al rinnovato deteriorarsi delle relazioni tra USA e URSS contribuirono a diffondere nell’opinione pubblica la sensazione che l’amministrazione Reagan, almeno da un punto di vista teorico, non avesse escluso dalle sue opzioni il ricorso alle armi nucleari nel caso di un confronto con l’URSS. I timori legati a questa percezione produssero una nuova ondata di proteste che assunsero dimensioni di massa grazie alla mobilitazione provocata dalla Nuclear Weapons Freeze Campaign (NWFC). Il target della NWFC era l’ampio programma di riarmo nucleare sostenuto da Reagan, che secondo gli attivisti nucleari, in un quadro di crescenti tensioni internazionali, avrebbe fatto aumentare le possibilità di uno scontro atomico. Per evitare lo scenario dell’olocausto nucleare, la NWFC proponeva «un congelamento bilaterale e verificabile del collaudo, dell’installazione e della produzione di armi nucleari». L’idea del nuclear freeze, che era concepito come un passo per fermare la spirale del riarmo e tentare successivamente di negoziare riduzioni negli arsenali delle due superpotenze, riscosse un tale consenso nell’opinione pubblica americana da indurre l’amministrazione Reagan a formulare una risposta specifica. Durante la primavera del 1982 fu, infatti, creato un gruppo interdipartimentale ad hoc, l’Arms Control Information Policy Group, con il compito di arginare l’influenza della NWFC sull’opinione pubblica americana e formulare una risposta coerente alle critiche del movimento antinucleare.

The reconstruction of skeletal movement: the soft tissue artefact issue

In 3D human movement analysis performed using stereophotogrammetric systems and skin markers, bone pose can only be estimated in an indirect fashion. During a movement, soft tissue deformations make the markers move with respect to the underlying bone generating soft tissue artefact (STA). STA has devastating effects on bone pose estimation and its compensation remains an open question. The aim of this PhD thesis was to contribute to the solution of this crucial issue. Modelling STA using measurable trial-specific variables is a fundamental prerequisite for its removal from marker trajectories. Two STA model architectures are proposed. Initially, a thigh marker-level artefact model is presented. STA was modelled as a linear combination of joint angles involved in the movement. This model was calibrated using ex-vivo and in-vivo STA invasive measures. The considerable number of model parameters led to defining STA approximations. Three definitions were proposed to represent STA as a series of modes: individual marker displacements, marker-cluster geometrical transformations (MCGT), and skin envelope shape variations. Modes were selected using two criteria: one based on modal energy and another on the selection of modes chosen a priori. The MCGT allows to select either rigid or non-rigid STA components. It was also empirically demonstrated that only the rigid component affects joint kinematics, regardless of the non-rigid amplitude. Therefore, a model of thigh and shank STA rigid component at cluster-level was then defined. An acceptable trade-off between STA compensation effectiveness and number of parameters can be obtained, improving joint kinematics accuracy. The obtained results lead to two main potential applications: the proposed models can generate realistic STAs for simulation purposes to compare different skeletal kinematics estimators; and, more importantly, focusing only on the STA rigid component, the model attains a satisfactory STA reconstruction with less parameters, facilitating its incorporation in an pose estimator.

Eye movement and diffusion tensor imaging analysis of treatment effects in a Niemann-Pick Type C patient

New treatment options for Niemann-Pick Type C (NPC) have recently become available. To assess the efficiency and efficacy of these new treatment markers for disease status and progression are needed. Both the diagnosis and the monitoring of disease progression are challenging and mostly rely on clinical impression and functional testing of horizontal eye movements. Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) provides information about the microintegrity especially of white matter. We show here in a case report how DTI and measures derived from this imaging method can serve as adjunct quantitative markers for disease management in Niemann-Pick Type C. Two approaches are taken--first, we compare the fractional anisotropy (FA) in the white matter globally between a 29-year-old NPC patient and 18 healthy age-matched controls and show the remarkable difference in FA relatively early in the course of the disease. Second, a voxelwise comparison of FA values reveals where white matter integrity is compromised locally and demonstrate an individualized analysis of FA changes before and after 1year of treatment with Miglustat. This method might be useful in future treatment trials for NPC to assess treatment effects.

Video-based quantification of body movement during social interaction indicates the severity of negative symptoms in patients with schizophrenia

In schizophrenia, nonverbal behavior, including body movement, is of theoretical and clinical importance. Although reduced nonverbal expressiveness is a major component of the negative symptoms encountered in schizophrenia, few studies have objectively assessed body movement during social interaction. In the present study, 378 brief, videotaped role-play scenes involving 27 stabilized outpatients diagnosed with paranoid-type schizophrenia were analyzed using Motion Energy Analysis (MEA). This method enables the objective measuring of body movement in conjunction with ordinary video recordings. Correlations between movement parameters (percentage of time in movement, movement speed) and symptom ratings from independent PANSS interviews were calculated. Movement parameters proved to be highly reliable. In keeping with predictions, reduced movement and movement speed correlated with negative symptoms. Accordingly, in patients who exhibited noticeable movement for less than 20% of the observation time, prominent negative symptoms were highly probable. As a control measure, the percentage of movement exhibited by the patients during role-play scenes was compared to that of their normal interactants. Patients with negative symptoms differed from normal interactants by showing significantly reduced head and body movement. Two specific positive symptoms were possibly related to movement parameters: suspiciousness tended to correlate with reduced head movement, and the expression of unusual thought content tended to relate to increased movement. Overall, a close and theoretically meaningful association between the objective movement parameters and the symptom profiles was found. MEA appears to be an objective, reliable and valid method for quantifying nonverbal behavior, an aspect which may furnish new insights into the processes related to reduced expressiveness in schizophrenia.

Ancient Calendars and Bolivian Modernity: Tiwanaku’s Gateway of the Sun, Arthur Posnansky, and the World Calendar Movement of the 1930s

Tourists to the archaeological site of Tiwanaku are presented with ancient calendars, of which the Gateway of the Sun is the most important, famous, and beautiful. Arthur Posnansky and other early 20th-century archaeologists claimed that its inscriptions constituted a written calendar. These claims were intimately connected to narratives of Tiwanaku as a central source of knowledge in both pre-Columbian times and the contemporary world. Posnansky presented his interpretation of Tiwanaku’s calendars as a response to the debates of the World Calendar Movement, which in the 1930s was attempting to rationalize the Gregorian calendar. In the Gateway, Posnansky found a uniquely Bolivian response to the international, North Atlantic-dominated scientific community’s search for a rational way to keep time in the world economy. Bolivian intellectuals merged their interest in the indigenous past with their concerns about the role of the modernist Bolivian state in the global system.