Asset Prices, Business Cycles, and Markov-Perfect Fiscal Policy when Agents are Risk-Sensitive

We study a business cycle model in which a benevolent fiscal authority must determine the optimal provision of government services, while lacking credibility, lump-sum taxes, and the ability to bond finance deficits. Households and the fiscal authority have risk sensitive preferences. We find that outcomes are affected importantly by the household's risk sensitivity, but not by the fiscal authority's. Further, while household risk-sensitivity induces a strong precautionary saving motive, which raises capital and lowers the return on assets, its effects on fluctuations and the business cycle are generally small, although more pronounced for negative shocks. Holding the stochastic steady state constant, increases in household risk-sensitivity lower the risk-free rate and raise the return on equity, increasing the equity premium. Finally, although risk-sensitivity has little effect on the provision of government services, it does cause the fiscal authority to lower the income tax rate. An additional contribution of this paper is to present a method for computing Markov-perfect equilibria in models where private agents and the government are risk-sensitive decisionmakers.

Climate change effects on animal and plant phylogenetic diversity in southern Africa

Much attention has been paid to the effects of climate change on species' range reductions and extinctions. There is however surprisingly little information on how climate change driven threat may impact the tree of life and result in loss of phylogenetic diversity (PD). Some plant families and mammalian orders reveal nonrandom extinction patterns, but many other plant families do not. Do these discrepancies reflect different speciation histories and does climate induced extinction result in the same discrepancies among different groups? Answers to these questions require representative taxon sampling. Here, we combine phylogenetic analyses, species distribution modeling, and climate change projections on two of the largest plant families in the Cape Floristic Region (Proteaceae and Restionaceae), as well as the second most diverse mammalian order in Southern Africa (Chiroptera), and an herbivorous insect genus (Platypleura) in the family Cicadidae to answer this question. We model current and future species distributions to assess species threat levels over the next 70years, and then compare projected with random PD survival. Results for these animal and plant clades reveal congruence. PD losses are not significantly higher under predicted extinction than under random extinction simulations. So far the evidence suggests that focusing resources on climate threatened species alone may not result in disproportionate benefits for the preservation of evolutionary history.

The twist, writhe and overall shape of supercoiled DNA change during counterion-induced transition from a loosely to a tightly interwound superhelix. Possible implications for DNA structure in vivo.

A cryo-electron microscopy study of supercoiled DNA molecules freely suspended in cryo-vitrified buffer was combined with Monte Carlo simulations and gel electrophoretic analysis to investigate the role of intersegmental electrostatic repulsion in determining the shape of supercoiled DNA molecules. It is demonstrated here that a decrease of DNA-DNA repulsion by increasing concentrations of counterions causes a higher fraction of the linking number deficit to be partitioned into writhe. When counterions reach concentrations likely to be present under in vivo conditions, naturally supercoiled plasmids adopt a tightly interwound conformation. In these tightly supercoiled DNA molecules the opposing segments of interwound superhelix seem to directly contact each other. This form of supercoiling, where two DNA helices interact laterally, may represent an important functional state of DNA. In the particular case of supercoiled minicircles (178 bp) the delta Lk = -2 topoisomers undergo a sharp structural transition from almost planar circles in low salt buffers to strongly writhed "figure-eight" conformations in buffers containing neutralizing concentrations of counterions. Possible implications of this observed structural transition in DNA are discussed.

The Committee on Climate Change: A policy analysis

Domestic action on climate change is increasingly important in the light of the difficulties with international agreements and requires a combination of solutions, in terms of institutions and policy instruments. One way of achieving government carbon policy goals may be the creation of an independent body to advise, set or monitor policy. This paper critically assesses the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), which was created in 2008 as an independent body to help move the UK towards a low carbon economy. We look at the motivation for its creation in terms of: information provision, advice, monitoring, or policy delegation. In particular we consider its ability to overcome a time inconsistency problem by comparing and contrasting it with another independent body, the Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England. In practice the Committee on Climate Change appears to be the ‘inverse’ of the Monetary Policy Committee, in that it advises on what the policy goal should be rather than being responsible for achieving it. The CCC incorporates both advisory and monitoring functions to inform government and achieve a credible carbon policy over a long time frame. This is a similar framework to that adopted by Stern (2006), but the CCC operates on a continuing basis. We therefore believe the CCC is best viewed as a "Rolling Stern plus" body. There are also concerns as to how binding the budgets actually are and how the budgets interact with other energy policy goals and instruments, such as Renewable Obligation Contracts and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme. The CCC could potentially be reformed to include: an explicit information provision role; consumption-based accounting of emissions and control of a policy instrument such as a balanced-budget carbon tax.

From Bretton Woods to inflation targeting: financial change and monetary policy evolution in Europe

Different ‘monetary architectures’ are distinguished, as a background to a discussion of the change in developed country monetary policy frameworks from fixed exchange rates under the Bretton Woods international monetary system to, ultimately, formal or informal inflation targeting. The introduction and experience of monetary targets in the 1970s is considered, followed by an analysis of the changes in countries’ monetary architectures, with particular reference to money and bond markets and to France and Italy, in the 1980s. Exchange rate targeting in Europe in the 1980s and 1990s is examined, followed by the changes in central bank independence in the 1990s. This leads to a discussion of the introduction of inflation targeting, and the issues raised for inflation targeting by the financial crisis of the late 2000s.

Representations and the Corruption of Goods

The traditional view of the economic agent is of an individual who is self-interested, rational and perceives the world “correctly”. However, there is a lot of experimental and other evidence that undermines this view of agents. It is argued that an attempt to model these agents properly requires the cognitive science idea of a mental representation- a mental state with content. It is shown that this idea gives economists resources to discuss critiques of economics by Sandel (2012) and Grant (2012). In particular, it allows us to think clearly about the notion of goods being “corrupted” by a change in context from a non-market to a market situation.

Predicting the impacts of climate change on genetic diversity in an endangered lizard species.

Many endangered species persist as a series of isolated populations, with some populations more genetically diverse than others. If climate change disproportionately threatens the most diverse populations, the species' ability to adapt (and hence its long-term viability) may be affected more severely than would be apparent by its numerical reduction. In the present study, we combine genetic data with modelling of species distributions under climate change to document this situation in an endangered lizard (Eulamprus leuraensis) from montane southeastern Australia. The species is known from only about 40 isolated swamps. Genetic diversity of lizard populations is greater in some sites than others, presumably reflecting consistently high habitat suitability over evolutionary time. Species distribution modelling suggests that the most genetically diverse populations are the ones most at risk from climate change, so that global warming will erode the species' genetic variability faster than it curtails the species' geographic distribution.

21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe

Continental-scale assessments of 21st century global impacts of climate change on biodiversity have forecasted range contractions for many species. These coarse resolution studies are, however, of limited relevance for projecting risks to biodiversity in mountain systems, where pronounced microclimatic variation could allow species to persist locally, and are ill-suited for assessment of species-specific threat in particular regions. Here, we assess the impacts of climate change on 2632 plant species across all major European mountain ranges, using high-resolution (ca. 100 m) species samples and data expressing four future climate scenarios. Projected habitat loss is greater for species distributed at higher elevations; depending on the climate scenario, we find 36-55% of alpine species, 31-51% of subalpine species and 19-46% of montane species lose more than 80% of their suitable habitat by 2070-2100. While our high-resolution analyses consistently indicate marked levels of threat to cold-adapted mountain florae across Europe, they also reveal unequal distribution of this threat across the various mountain ranges. Impacts on florae from regions projected to undergo increased warming accompanied by decreased precipitation, such as the Pyrenees and the Eastern Austrian Alps, will likely be greater than on florae in regions where the increase in temperature is less pronounced and rainfall increases concomitantly, such as in the Norwegian Scandes and the Scottish Highlands. This suggests that change in precipitation, not only warming, plays an important role in determining the potential impacts of climate change on vegetation.

Recent advances in pharmacologic study of natural anticancer agents in China

In this paper a number of anticancer agents of natural origin will be presented. Hydroxycamtothecin (HCPT) was found to produce a strong inhibitory action on a variety of animal tumors. It is also effective for treatment of patients with gastric carcinoma, liver carcinoma, tumor of head and neck or leukemia. Pharmacologic studies showed that it could depress S phase of tumor cells significantly and cause formation of cellular chromatid breaks. By means of alkaline elution and nick translation methods it has been proved that HCPT induced DNA singlo strand breaks remarkably. Homoharringyonine (hhrt) was shown to be effective against acute leukemia. Recent experiments in tumor-bearing mice inidcated that (HHRT) could diminish tumor metastasis. Using molecular hybridization technique it was demonstrated that (HHRT) decreased the content of c-myc RNA in the cytoplasm but not in the nuclei. Lycobetaine (LBT) poddrddrf dytnh inhibitory effects on a number of ascites tumors. In clinical trials it was against ovarian and gastric carcinomas. It is able to intercalate into DNA. Oxalysine (OXL) is a new antibiotic and shown to be effective against tumor metastatis. When used in combination with 5-FU, its anticancer action could be enhanced. Other natural compounds such as indirubin, ß-elemene, irisquinone, oridonine, norcantharidin and PSP have been also found to possess antitumor action.

Advances in pharmacological studies of silymarin

Silymarin is the flavonoids extracted from the seeds of Silybum marianum (L) Gearth as a mixture of three structural isomers: silybin, silydianin and silychristin, the former being the most active component. Silymarin protects liver cell membrane against hepatotoxic agents and improves liver function in experimental animals and humans. It is generally accepted that silymarin exerts a membrane-stabilizing action preventing or inhibiting membrane peroxidation. The experiments with soybean lipoxygenase showed that the three components of silymarin brought about a concentration-dependent non-competitive inhibition of the lipoxygenase. The experiments also showed an analogous interaction with animal lipoxygenase, thus showing that an inhibition of the peroxidation of the fatty acid in vivo was self-evident. Silybin almost completely suppressed the formation of PG at the highest concentration (0.3 mM) and proved to be an inhibitor of PG synthesis in vitro. In our experiments, silybin at lower dose (65 mg/Kg) decreased liver lipoperoxide content and microsomal lipoperoxidation to 84.5% and 68.55% of those of the scalded control rats respectively, and prevented the decrease of liver microsomal cytochrome p-450 content and p-nitroanisole-0-demethylase activity 24 h post-scalding. Effects of silymarin on cardiovascular systen have been studied in this university since 1980. O. O silymarin 800 mg/Kg/d or silybin 600 mg/Kg/d reduced plasma total cholesterol, LDL-C and VLDL-C. They however, enhanced HDL-C in hyperlipenic rats. Further studies showed that silymarin enhanced HDL-C in hyperlipemic rats. Further studies showed that silymarin enhanced HDL-C but didn't affect HDL-C, a property of this component which is beneficial to treatment of atherosclerosis. The results showed silymarin 80 mg or silybin 60 mg decreased in vitro platelet aggregation (porcentagem) in rats. The maximal platelet aggregation induced by ADP declined significantly, and time to reach maximal platelet aggregation and five-minute disaggregation didn't change. In our experiments, iv silybin 22,4 mg/kg lowered the amplitude and duration of diastolic blood pressure (DBP) more than those of systolic (SBP), but the descending aortic blood flow, cardiac contractility and ECG did not change significantly in anesthetized open-chest cats. The results indicated a reduction of peripheral resistance and dilatatory action on the resistant blood vessels. These effects are beneficial to coronary heart disease. We also observed the effects of silybin on morphological change, the release of glutamic oxaloacetate aminotrasferase (GOT) and lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) as well as the radioactivity of 3H-TdR incorporated into DNA in normal cardiac cells and cells infected by coxsackie B5, virus os newborn rats. The results showed that silynin did not affect the morphology of normal cell, and that the pathological change of cells infected by virus was delayed and reduced as compared to control. We have investigated the effect of silybin on synthesis and release of LTs in the cultured porcine cerebral basilar arteries (PCBA). Silybin 100 and 500 µmol/L declined the amounts of LTs released from the PCBA incubsated in the presence of A 23187, AA and indomenthacin. The result suggests that silybin can inhibit the activity of 5-lipoxygenase of cerebral blood vessel and may protect the brain from ischemia.

The research on radioprotective agents in Chinese materia medica

A series of studies has been carried out in the field of traditional medicine for searching radio-protective agents. According to the theory of traditional Chinese medicine, may prescriptions were tested with experimental animals. Some of them could raise the survival rate of dogs irradiated with lethal dose of Pi-rays by 30-40%. Some symptoms of radiation sickness could be improved. More than one thousand kinds of Chinese herbs were screened. Some of them have pronounced radioprotectice activities. A series of bioactive components wee isolated from these herbs. The mechanism of radiation protection were studied. Having the capability of hemopoietic system and immune system may be the characteristics of these Chinese herbs.

Chemical and pharmacological investigation of Solanum species of Brazil: a search for solasodine and other potentially useful therapeutic agents

A systematic search for solasodine, an important staring material for the partial synthesis of steroidal hormones as well as other potentially bioactive constituents of various Solanum species of Brazil has been undertaken. Thus, the fruits of S. paludosum, S. asperum, S. sessiliforum and Solanum sp. were found to contain significant amounts of solasodine. The root bark of S. paludosum which showe durare like activity yelded tomatidenol and another yet unidentified alkaloid responsible for the biological activity. The fruits of S. asperum yelded a new spirosolane alkaloid, solaparnaine. The stem bark of S. pseudo-quina showed convulsive and exitatory activity from which (25S)-isosolafloridine was identified as the active principle. In addition, the latter alkaloid was also found to show antimicrobial activity.

Climate change in the Atlantic Ocean since the 1940's and the effects on the global climate

En aquest projecte s’ha estudiat la relació entre els canvis en les temperatures superficials de l’Oceà Atlàntic i els canvis en la circulació atmosfèrica en el segle XX. Concretament s’han analitzat dos períodes de estudi: el primer des del 1940 al 1960 i el segon des del 1980 fins al 2000. S’ha posat especial interès en les anomalies en les temperatures superficials del mar en la regió tropical de l’Oceà Atlàntic i la possible interconnexió amb els canvis climàtics observats i predits. Per a la realització de l’estudi s’han dut a terme una sèrie d’experiments utilitzant el model climàtic elaborat a la universitat d’UCLA (UCLA‐AGCM model). Els resultats obtinguts han estat analitzats en forma de mapes i figures per a cada variable d’estudi. També s’ha fet una comparació entre els resultats obtinguts i altres trobats en altres treballs publicats sobre el mateix tema de recerca. Els resultats obtinguts són molt amplis i poden tenir diverses interpretacions. Tot i així algunes de les conclusions a les quals s’ha arribat són: les diferències més significatives per a les variables estudiades i trobades a partir dels resultats obtinguts del model per als dos períodes d’estudi són en els mesos d’hivern i a la zona dels tròpics; concretament a parts del nord de sud Amèrica i a parts del nord d’Àfrica. S’han trobat també canvis significatius en els patrons de precipitació sobre aquestes mateixes zones. També s’ha observant un moviment cap al nord de la zona d’interconvergència tropical i pot ser degut a l’anòmal gradient trobat a la zona equatorial en les temperatures superficial de l’Oceà. Tot i així per a una definitiva discussió i conclusions sobre els resultats dels experiments, seria necessari un estudi més ampli i profund.

Agents mòbils en situacions d'emergència: gestió dinàmica de serveis

Aquest projecte consisteix en el disseny i desenvolupament d'una arquitectura de serveis sota el paradigma dels agents inteligents. El propòsit d'ADASMI (Architecture for Dynamic Agent Service Management and Interaction) és permetre la gestió i utilització de serveis per altres agents. L'arquitectura s'ha implementat utilitzant la plataforma d'agents de JADE i es pot utilitzar amb qualsevol altra plataforma que compleixi els estàndards d'IEEE FIPA. A més, és prou flexible com per adaptar-se en entorns dinàmics, com per exemple les xarxes ad-hoc en situacions d'emergència.

Threats from climate change to terrestrial vertebrate hotspots in europe.

We identified hotspots of terrestrial vertebrate species diversity in Europe and adjacent islands. Moreover, we assessed the extent to which by the end of the 21(st) century such hotspots will be exposed to average monthly temperature and precipitation patterns which can be regarded as extreme if compared to the climate experienced during 1950-2000. In particular, we considered the entire European sub-continent plus Turkey and a total of 1149 species of terrestrial vertebrates. For each species, we developed species-specific expert-based distribution models (validated against field data) which we used to calculate species richness maps for mammals, breeding birds, amphibians, and reptiles. Considering four global circulation model outputs and three emission scenarios, we generated an index of risk of exposure to extreme climates, and we used a bivariate local Moran's I to identify the areas with a significant association between hotspots of diversity and high risk of exposure to extreme climates. Our results outline that the Mediterranean basin represents both an important hotspot for biodiversity and especially for threatened species for all taxa. In particular, the Iberian and Italian peninsulas host particularly high species richness as measured over all groups, while the eastern Mediterranean basin is particularly rich in amphibians and reptiles; the islands (both Macaronesian and Mediterranean) host the highest richness of threatened species for all taxa occurs. Our results suggest that the main hotspots of biodiversity for terrestrial vertebrates may be extensively influenced by the climate change projected to occur over the coming decades, especially in the Mediterranean bioregion, posing serious concerns for biodiversity conservation.