Risk Analysis and Behavior of Electricity Portfolio Aggregator

The scope of this paper is to adapt the standard mean-variance model of Henry Markowitz theory, creating a simulation tool to find the optimal configuration of the portfolio aggregator, calculate its profitability and risk. Currently, there is a deep discussion going on among the power system society about the structure and architecture of the future electric system. In this environment, policy makers and electric utilities find new approaches to access the electricity market; this configures new challenging positions in order to find innovative strategies and methodologies. Decentralized power generation is gaining relevance in liberalized markets, and small and medium size electricity consumers are also become producers (“prosumers”). In this scenario an electric aggregator is an entity that joins a group of electric clients, customers, producers, “prosumers” together as a single purchasing unit to negotiate the purchase and sale of electricity. The aggregator conducts research on electricity prices, contract terms and conditions in order to promote better energy prices for their clients and allows small and medium customers to benefit improved market prices.

Obesity and dental caries: systematic review

OBJECTIVE Identifying, through a systematic literature review, evidence of a possible association between obesity and dental caries. METHODS A search of articles published between 2005 and January 2012 was performed in the Medline/PubMed, LILACS and Web of Science databases. The quality of scientific evidence of the selected articles was assessed by the items proposed for observational studies in the Downs & Black instrument. RESULTS Initially, 537 references were found; after checking the titles and abstracts by two independent researchers, twenty-eight articles were selected for complete reading. Ten of them that assessed the primary and/or permanent dentition observed a positive association between obesity and dental caries and one study found an inverse association. According to the Downs & Black classification, thirteen articles with good scientific evidence were found. CONCLUSIONS The present review did not find sufficient evidence regarding the association between obesity and dental caries, and it did not clarify the possible role of diet and other possible effect modifiers on this association.

Occupational Musculoskeletal Disorders in Europe: Impact, Risk factors and Preventive Regulations

The aim of this article is to characterize musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) in EU working population according to available Eurostat data, to identify relevant risk factors and to refer existing legislation and standards to prevent MSDs. The following questions will be answered: How often do MSDs occur in EU? What are the risk factors? Do legislation and standards exist to prevent these disorders?

Fungal burden in waste industry: an occupational risk to be solved

High loads of fungi have been reported in different types of waste management plants. This study intends to assess fungal contamination in one waste-sorting plant before and after cleaning procedures in order to analyze their effectiveness. Air samples of 50 L were collected through an impaction method, while surface samples, taken at the same time, were collected by the swabbing method and subject to further macro- and microscopic observations. In addition, we collected air samples of 250 L using the impinger Coriolis μ air sampler (Bertin Technologies) at 300 L/min airflow rate in order to perform real-time quantitative PCR (qPCR) amplification of genes from specific fungal species, namely Aspergillus fumigatus and Aspergillus flavus complexes, as well as Stachybotrys chartarum species. Fungal quantification in the air ranged from 180 to 5,280 CFU m−3 before cleaning and from 220 to 2,460 CFU m−3 after cleaning procedures. Surfaces presented results that ranged from 29 × 104 to 109 × 104 CFU m−2 before cleaning and from 11 × 104 to 89 × 104 CFU m−2 after cleaning. Statistically significant differences regarding fungal load were not detected between before and after cleaning procedures. Toxigenic strains from A. flavus complex and S. chartarum were not detected by qPCR. Conversely, the A. fumigatus species was successfully detected by qPCR and interestingly it was amplified in two samples where no detection by conventional methods was observed. Overall, these results reveal the inefficacy of the cleaning procedures and that it is important to determine fungal burden in order to carry out risk assessment.

Occupational exposure to aflatoxin B1: new (old) occupational risk!

Contrary to fungi, exposure to mycotoxins is not usually identified as a risk factor present in occupational settings. This is probably due to the inexistence of limits regarding concentration of airborne mycotoxins, and also due to the fact that these compounds are rarely monitored in occupational environments. Aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) is the most prevalent aflatoxin and is associated with carcinogenicity, teratogenicity, genotoxicity and immunotoxicity but only a few studies examined exposure in occupational settings. Workers can be exposed to high airborne levels during certain operations in specific occupational settings. Aim of study: The study aimed to assess exposure to AFB1 in three settings: poultry, swine production and waste management.

Task-based occupational exposure assessment and particle number concentration: two important data resources to perform risk assessment for occupational exposure to particles

Environment monitoring has an important role in occupational exposure assessment. However, due to several factors is done with insufficient frequency and normally don´t give the necessary information to choose the most adequate safety measures to avoid or control exposure. Identifying all the tasks developed in each workplace and conducting a task-based exposure assessment help to refine the exposure characterization and reduce assessment errors. A task-based assessment can provide also a better evaluation of exposure variability, instead of assessing personal exposures using continuous 8-hour time weighted average measurements. Health effects related with exposure to particles have mainly been investigated with mass-measuring instruments or gravimetric analysis. However, more recently, there are some studies that support that size distribution and particle number concentration may have advantages over particle mass concentration for assessing the health effects of airborne particles. Several exposure assessments were performed in different occupational settings (bakery, grill house, cork industry and horse stable) and were applied these two resources: task-based exposure assessment and particle number concentration by size. The results showed interesting results: task-based approach applied permitted to identify the tasks with higher exposure to the smaller particles (0.3 μm) in the different occupational settings. The data obtained allow more concrete and effective risk assessment and the identification of priorities for safety investments.

Environmental mycology in public health: fungi and mycotoxins risk assessment and management

Fungi are essential to the survival of our global ecology, but they might pose a significant threat to the health of occupants when they grow in our buildings. The exposure to fungi in homes is a significant risk factor for a number of respiratory symptoms. Well-known illnesses caused by fungi include allergy and hypersensitivity pneumonitis. Environmental monitoring for fungi and their disease agents are important aspects of exposure assessment, but few guidelines exist for interpreting their health impacts. This book answers the questions: How does one detect and measure the presence of indoor fungi? What is an acceptable level of indoor fungi? How do we relate this information to human health problems?

HIV risk practices by female sex workers according to workplace

OBJECTIVE To investigate differences in HIV infection- related risk practices by Female Sex Workers according to workplace and the effects of homophily on estimating HIV prevalence. METHODS Data from 2,523 women, recruited using Respondent-Driven Sampling, were used for the study carried out in 10 Brazilian cities in 2008-2009. The study included female sex workers aged 18 and over. The questionnaire was completed by the subjects and included questions on characteristics of professional activity, sexual practices, use of drugs, HIV testing, and access to health services. HIV quick tests were conducted. The participants were classified in two groups according to place of work: on the street or indoor venues, like nightclubs and saunas. To compare variable distributions by place of work, we used Chi-square homogeneity tests, taking into consideration unequal selection probabilities as well as the structure of dependence between observations. We tested the effect of homophily by workplace on estimated HIV prevalence. RESULTS The highest HIV risk practices were associated with: working on the streets, lower socioeconomic status, low regular smear test coverage, higher levels of crack use and higher levels of syphilis serological scars as well as higher prevalence of HIV infection. The effect of homophily was higher among sex workers in indoor venues. However, it did not affect the estimated prevalence of HIV, even after using a post-stratification by workplace procedure. CONCLUSIONS The findings suggest that strategies should focus on extending access to, and utilization of, health services. Prevention policies should be specifically aimed at street workers. Regarding the application of Respondent-Driven Sampling, the sample should be sufficient to estimate transition probabilities, as the network develops more quickly among sex workers in indoor venues.

Synopsis of global scenario and forecasting surveys scenarios in risk habitat megacity (RHM)

The main objective of the paper is to provide a synopsis of global scenario and forecasting surveys. First, the paper will give an overview on existing global scenario and forecasting surveys and their specific scenario philosophies and storylines. Second, the major driving forces that shape and characterise the different scenarios will be identified. The scenario analysis has been provided for the research project Risk Habitat Megacity (HRM) that aims at developing strategies for sustainable development in megacities and urban agglomerations. The analysis of international scenario surveys is an essential component within RHM. The scenario analysis will be the basis and source for the development of own RHM-framework scenarios and for defining specific driving forces of change.

Risk of dependence associated with health, social support, and lifestyle

OBJECTIVE To analyze the prevalence of individuals at risk of dependence and its associated factors.METHODS The study was based on data from the Catalan Health Survey, Spain conducted in 2010 and 2011. Logistic regression models from a random sample of 3,842 individuals aged ≥ 15 years were used to classify individuals according to the state of their personal autonomy. Predictive models were proposed to identify indicators that helped distinguish dependent individuals from those at risk of dependence. Variables on health status, social support, and lifestyles were considered.RESULTS We found that 18.6% of the population presented a risk of dependence, especially after age 65. Compared with this group, individuals who reported dependence (11.0%) had difficulties performing activities of daily living and had to receive support to perform them. Habits such as smoking, excessive alcohol consumption, and being sedentary were associated with a higher probability of dependence, particularly for women.CONCLUSIONS Difficulties in carrying out activities of daily living precede the onset of dependence. Preserving personal autonomy and function without receiving support appear to be a preventive factor. Adopting an active and healthy lifestyle helps reduce the risk of dependence.

Incidence and risk factors for intimate partner violence during the postpartum period

OBJECTIVE To estimate the incidence and identify risk factors for intimate partner violence during postpartum.METHODS This prospective cohort study was conducted with women, aged between 18-49 years, enrolled in the Brazilian Family Health Strategy in Recife, Northeastern Brazil, between 2005 and 2006. Of the 1.057 women interviewed during pregnancy and postpartum, 539 women, who did not report violence before or during pregnancy, were evaluated. A theoretical-conceptual framework was built with three levels of factors hierarchically ordered: women’s and partners’ sociodemografic and behavioral characteristics, and relationship dynamics. Incidence and risk factors of intimate partner violence were estimated by Poisson Regression.RESULTS The incidence of violence during postpartum was 9.3% (95%CI 7.0;12.0). Isolated psychological violence was the most common (4.3%; 95%CI 2.8;6.4). The overlapping of psychological with physical violence occurred at 3.3% (95%CI 2.0;5.3) and with physical and/or sexual in almost 2.0% (95%CI 0.8;3.0) of cases. The risk of partner violence during postpartum was increased for women with a low level of education (RR = 2.6; 95%CI 1.3;5.4), without own income (RR = 1.7; 95%CI 1.0;2.9) and those who perpetrated physical violence against their partner without being assaulted first (RR = 2.0; 95%CI 1.2;3.4), had a very controlling partner (RR = 2.5; 95%CI 1.1;5.8), and had frequent fights with their partner (RR = 1.7; 95%CI 1.0;2.9).CONCLUSIONS The high incidence of intimate partner violence during postpartum and its association with aspects of the relationship’s quality between the couple, demonstrated the need for public policies that promote conflict mediation and enable forms of empowerment for women to address the cycle of violence.

Occupational conditions and the risk of the use of amphetamines by truck drivers

OBJECTIVE To test whether the occupational conditions of professional truck drivers are associated with amphetamine use after demographic characteristics and ones regarding mental health and drug use are controlled for.METHODS Cross-sectional study, with a non-probabilistic sample of 684 male truck drivers, which was collected in three highways in Sao Paulo between years 2012 and 2013. Demographic and occupational information was collected, as well as data on drug use and mental health (sleep quality, emotional stress, and psychiatric disorders). A logistic regression model was developed to identify factors associated with amphetamine use. Odds ratio (OR; 95%CI) was defined as the measure for association. The significance level was established as p < 0.05.RESULTS The studied sample was found to have an average age of 36.7 (SD = 7.8) years, as well as low education (8.6 [SD = 2.3] years); 29.0% of drivers reported having used amphetamines within the twelve months prior to their interviews. After demographic and occupational variables had been controlled for, the factors which indicated amphetamine use among truck drivers were the following: being younger than 38 years (OR = 3.69), having spent less than nine years at school (OR = 1.76), being autonomous (OR = 1.65), working night shifts or irregular schedules (OR = 2.05), working over 12 hours daily (OR = 2.14), and drinking alcohol (OR = 1.74).CONCLUSIONS Occupational aspects are closely related to amphetamine use among truck drivers, which reinforces the importance of closely following the application of law (Resting Act (“Lei do Descanso”); Law 12,619/2012) which regulates the workload and hours of those professionals. Our results show the need for increased strictness on the trade and prescription of amphetamines in Brazil.

Chikungunya risk for Brazil

This study aimed to show, based on the literature on the subject, the potential for dispersal and establishment of the chikungunya virus in Brazil. The chikungunya virus, a Togaviridae member of the genusAlphavirus, reached the Americas in 2013 and, the following year, more than a million cases were reported. In Brazil, indigenous transmission was registered in Amapa and Bahia States, even during the period of low rainfall, exposing the whole country to the risk of virus spreading. Brazil is historically infested by Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus, also dengue vectors. Chikungunya may spread, and it is important to take measures to prevent the virus from becoming endemic in the country. Adequate care for patients with chikungunya fever requires training general practitioners, rheumatologists, nurses, and experts in laboratory diagnosis. Up to November 2014, more than 1,000 cases of the virus were reported in Brazil. There is a need for experimental studies in animal models to understand the dynamics of infection and the pathogenesis as well as to identify pathophysiological mechanisms that may contribute to identifying effective drugs against the virus. Clinical trials are needed to identify the causal relationship between the virus and serious injuries observed in different organs and joints. In the absence of vaccines or effective drugs against the virus, currently the only way to prevent the disease is vector control, which will also reduce the number of cases of dengue fever.

The effects of clinical support surfaces on pressure as a risk factor in the development of pressure ulcers, from a radiographical perspective: a narrative literature review

Purpose: Pressure ulcers are a high cost, high volume issue for health and medical care providers, having a detrimental effect on patients and relatives. Pressure ulcer prevention is widely covered in the literature, but little has been published regarding the risk to patients in the radiographical setting. This review of the current literature is to identify findings relevant to radiographical context. Methods: Literature searching was performed using Science Direct and Medline databases. The search was limited to articles published in the last ten years to remain current and excluded studies containing participants less than 17 years of age. In total 14 studies were acquired; three were excluded as they were not relevant. The remaining 11 studies were compared and reviewed. Discussion: Eight of the studies used ‘healthy’ participants and three used symptomatic participants. Nine studies explored interface pressure with a range of pressure mat technologies, two studies measured shear (MRI finite element modelling, and a non-invasive instrument), and one looked at blood flow and haemoglobin oxygenation. A range of surfaces were considered from trauma, nursing and surgical backgrounds for their ability to reduce pressure including standard mattresses, high specification mattresses, rigid and soft layer spine boards, various overlays (gel, air filled, foam). Conclusion: The current literature is not appropriate for the radiographic patient and cannot be extrapolated to a radiologic context. Sufficient evidence is presented in this review to support the need for further work specific to radiography in order to minimise the development of PU in at risk patients.

Risk factors for recurrent wheezing in infants: a case-control study

ABSTRACT OBJECTIVE To evaluate the association between recurrent wheezing and atopy, the Asthma Predictive Index, exposure to risk factors, and total serum IgE levels as potential factors to predict recurrent wheezing. METHODS A case-control study with infants aged 6-24 months treated at a specialized outpatient clinic from November 2011 to March 2013. Evaluations included sensitivity to inhalant and food antigens, positive Asthma Predictive Index, and other risk factors for recurrent wheezing (smoking during pregnancy, presence of indoor smoke, viral infections, and total serum IgE levels). RESULTS We evaluated 113 children: 65 infants with recurrent wheezing (63.0% male) with a mean age of 14.8 (SD = 5.2) months and 48 healthy infants (44.0% male) with a mean age of 15.2 (SD = 5.1) months. In the multiple analysis model, antigen sensitivity (OR = 12.45; 95%CI 1.28–19.11), positive Asthma Predictive Index (OR = 5.57; 95%CI 2.23–7.96), and exposure to environmental smoke (OR = 2.63; 95%CI 1.09–6.30) remained as risk factors for wheezing. Eosinophilia ≥ 4.0% e total IgE ≥ 100 UI/mL were more prevalent in the wheezing group, but failed to remain in the model. Smoking during pregnancy was identified in a small number of mothers, and secondhand smoke at home was higher in the control group. CONCLUSIONS Presence of atopy, positive Asthma Predictive Index and exposure to environmental smoke are associated to recurrent wheezing. Identifying these factors enables the adoption of preventive measures, especially for children susceptible to persistent wheezing and future asthma onset.