Markov chain splitting methods in structural reliability integral estimation

Monte Carlo simulation methods involving splitting of Markov chains have been used in evaluation of multi-fold integrals in different application areas. We examine in this paper the performance of these methods in the context of evaluation of reliability integrals from the point of view of characterizing the sampling fluctuations. The methods discussed include the Au-Beck subset simulation, Holmes-Diaconis-Ross method, and generalized splitting algorithm. A few improvisations based on first order reliability method are suggested to select algorithmic parameters of the latter two methods. The bias and sampling variance of the alternative estimators are discussed. Also, an approximation to the sampling distribution of some of these estimators is obtained. Illustrative examples involving component and series system reliability analyses are presented with a view to bring out the relative merits of alternative methods. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Factors affecting distribution of fish within a tidally drained mangrove forest in the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, India

Mangrove forests in meso-tidal areas are completely drained during low tides, forming only temporary habitats for fish. We hypothesised that in such temporary habitats, where stranding risks are high, distance from tidal creeks that provided access to inundated areas during receding tides would be the primary determinant of fish distribution. Factors such as depth, root density and shade were hypothesised to have secondary effects. We tested these hypotheses in a tidally drained mangrove patch in the Andaman Islands, India. Using stake nets, we measured fish abundance and species richness relative to distance from creeks, root density/m(2), shade, water depth and size (total length) of fish. We also predicted that larger fish (including potential predators) would be closer to creeks, as they faced a greater chance of mortality if stranded. Thus we conducted tethering trials to examine if predation would be greater close to the creeks. Generalised linear mixed effects models showed that fish abundance was negatively influenced by increasing creek distance interacting with fish size and positively influenced by depth. Quantile regression analysis showed that species richness was limited by increasing creek distance. Proportion of predation was greatest close to the creeks (0-25 m) and declined with increasing distance. Abundance was also low very close to the creeks, suggesting that close to the creeks predation pressure may be an important determinant of fish abundance. The overall pattern however indicates that access to permanently inundated areas, may be an important determinant of fish distribution in tidally drained mangrove forests.

Number of prior episodes and the presence of depressive symptoms are associated with longer length of stay for patients with acute manic episodes

Background: Few studies have analyzed predictors of length of stay (LOS) in patients admitted due to acute bipolar manic episodes. The purpose of the present study was to estimate LOS and to determine the potential sociodemographic and clinical risk factors associated with a longer hospitalization. Such information could be useful to identify those patients at high risk for long LOS and to allocate them to special treatments, with the aim of optimizing their hospital management. Methods: This was a cross-sectional study recruiting adult patients with a diagnosis of bipolar disorder (Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, 4th edition, text revision (DSM-IV-TR) criteria) who had been hospitalized due to an acute manic episode with a Young Mania Rating Scale total score greater than 20. Bivariate correlational and multiple linear regression analyses were performed to identify independent predictors of LOS. Results: A total of 235 patients from 44 centers were included in the study. The only factors that were significantly associated to LOS in the regression model were the number of previous episodes and the Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale (MADRS) total score at admission (P < 0.05). Conclusions: Patients with a high number of previous episodes and those with depressive symptoms during mania are more likely to stay longer in hospital. Patients with severe depressive symptoms may have a more severe or treatment-resistant course of the acute bipolar manic episode.

Length of concentrate finishing affects the fatty acid composition of grass-fed andgenetically lean beef: an emphasis on trans-18:1 and conjugated linoleic acid profiles

2.4. The author may post the VoR version of the article (in PDF or HTML form) in the Institutional Repository of the institution in which the author worked at the time the article was first submitted, or (for appropriate journals) in PubMed Central or UK PubMed Central or arXiv, no sooner than one year after first publication of the article in the Journal, subject to file availability and provided the posting includes a prominent statement of the full bibliographical details, a copyright notice in the name of the copyright holder (Cambridge University Press or the sponsoring Society, as appropriate), and a link to the online edition of the Journal at Cambridge Journals Online.

A video method for quantifying size distribution, density, and three-dimensional spatial structure of reef fish spawning aggregations

There is a clear need to develop fisheries independent methods to quantify individual sizes, density, and three dimensional characteristics of reef fish spawning aggregations for use in population assessments and to provide critical baseline data on reproductive life history of exploited populations. We designed, constructed, calibrated, and applied an underwater stereo-video system to estimate individual sizes and three dimensional (3D) positions of Nassau grouper (Epinephelus striatus) at a spawning aggregation site located on a reef promontory on the western edge of Little Cayman Island, Cayman Islands, BWI, on 23 January 2003. The system consists of two free-running camcorders mounted on a meter-long bar and supported by a SCUBA diver. Paired video “stills” were captured, and nose and tail of individual fish observed in the field of view of both cameras were digitized using image analysis software. Conversion of these two dimensional screen coordinates to 3D coordinates was achieved through a matrix inversion algorithm and calibration data. Our estimate of mean total length (58.5 cm, n = 29) was in close agreement with estimated lengths from a hydroacoustic survey and from direct measures of fish size using visual census techniques. We discovered a possible bias in length measures using the video method, most likely arising from some fish orientations that were not perpendicular with respect to the optical axis of the camera system. We observed 40 individuals occupying a volume of 33.3 m3, resulting in a concentration of 1.2 individuals m–3 with a mean (SD) nearest neighbor distance of 70.0 (29.7) cm. We promote the use of roving diver stereo-videography as a method to assess the size distribution, density, and 3D spatial structure of fish spawning aggregations.

Atlas of abundance and distribution patterns of ichthyoplankton from the Northeast Pacific Ocean and Bering Sea ecosystems: based on research conducted by the Alaska Fisheries Science Center (1972–1996)

This regional atlas summarizes and illustrates the distribution and abundance patterns of fish eggs and larvae of 102 taxa within 34 families found in the Northeast Pacific Ocean including the Bering Sea, Gulf of Alaska, and U.S. west coast ecosystems. Data were collected over a 20+ year period (1972–1996) by the Recruitment Processes Program of the Alaska Fisheries Science Center (AFSC). Ichthyoplankton catch records used in this atlas were generated from 11,379 tows taken during 100 cruises. For each taxon, general life history data are briefly summarized from the literature. Published information on distribution patterns of eggs and larvae are reviewed for the study area. Data from AFSC ichthyoplankton collections were combined to produce an average spatial distribution for each taxon. These data were also used to estimate mean abundance and percent occurrence by year and month, and relative abundance by larval length and season. Abundance from each tow was measured as catch per 10 m2 surface area. A larval distribution and abundance map was produced with a geographic information system using ArcInfo software. For taxa with identifiable pelagic eggs, distribution maps showing presence or absence of eggs are presented. Presence or absence of adults in the study area is mapped based on recent literature and data from AFSC groundfish surveys. Distributional records for adults and early life history stages revealed several new range extensions. (PDF file contains 288 pages.)

The distribution and size composition of finfish, American lobster, and long-finned squid in Long Island Sound based on the Connecticut Fisheries Division Bottom Trawl Survey, 1984–1994

The distribution, abundance, and length composition of marine finfish, lobster, and squid in Long Island Sound were examined relative to season and physical features of the Sound, using Connecticut Department of Environmental Protection trawl survey data collected from 1984 to 1994. The following are presented: seasonal distribution maps for 59 species, abundance indices for 41 species, and length frequencies for 26 species. In addition, a broader view of habitat utilization in the Sound was examined by mapping aggregated catches (total catch per tow, demersal catch per tow, and pelagic catch per tow) and by comparing species richness and mean aggregate catch/tow by analysis of variance (ANOVA) among eight habitat types defined by depth interval and bottom type. For many individual species, seasonal migration patterns and preference for particular areas within Long Island Sound were evident. The aggregate distribution maps show that overall abundance was lower in the eastern Sound than the central and western portions. Demersal and pelagic temporal abundance show opposite trends—demersals were abundant in spring and declined through summer and fall, whereas pelagic abundance was low in spring and increased into fall. The analysis of habitat types revealed significant differences for both species richness and mean catch per tow. Generally, species richness was highest in habitats within the central area of the Sound and lowest in eastern habitats. The aggregate mean catch was highest in the western and central habitats, and declined eastward. (PDF file contains 199 pages.)

Length-weight relationships of the anchoveta, Cetengraulis mysticetus, in the Gulf of Panama

ENGLISH: Knowledge of the length-frequency distribution and the length-weight relationships of the anchoveta is essential for converting the catch statistics of that species from pounds to numbers of fish. Such conversions are necessary for various types of investigations, especially those involving estimation of the population size and mortality rates. The analysis of the results of a recent tagging program conducted with anchovetas in the Gulf of Panama (Bayliff, 1965) requires that such conversions be made. Length-frequency data for the anchoveta have already been collected and published (Howard and Landa, 1958; Bayliff, 1964). The present report deals with length-weight data from fish collected in various .areas of the Gulf of Panama in all months of the year and in several different years. Opportunity is thus afforded to compare the length-weight relationships of fish of different year classes in different areas, months, and years. SPANISH: El conocimiento de la distribución de la frecuencia de longitud y de las relaciones entre la longitud y el peso de la anchoveta es esencial en las estadísticas de captura de esta especie para la conversión de peso en libras a número de peces. Estas conversiones son necesarias para varios tipos de investigación, especialmente las que se refieren a la estimación del tamaño de la población y de las tasas de mortalidad. Estas conversiones se requieren para analizar los resultados de un programa reciente de marcación de anchovetas en el Golfo de Panamá (Bayliff, 1965). Los datos de la frecuencia de longitud de la anchoveta ya han sido recolectados y publicados (Howard y Landa, 1958; Bayliff, 1964). El presente informe trata de los datos de longitud y peso de los peces recolectados en varias áreas del Golfo de Panamá durante todos los meses del año y durante varios años. Esto ofrece la oportunidad de comparar las relaciones entre la longitud y el peso de peces pertenecientes a varias clases anuales en áreas, meses y años diferentes.

Distribution, Abundance, and Biological Characteristics of Groundfish off the Coast of Washington, Oregon, and California, 1977-1986

We compare results of bottom trawl surveys off Washington, Oregon, and California in 1977, 1980, 1983, and 1986 to discern trends in population abundance, distribution, and biology. Catch per unit of effort, area-swept biomass estimates, and age and length compositions for 12 commercially important west coast groundfishes are presented to illustrate trends over the lO-year period. We discuss the precision, accuracy, and statistical significance of observed trends in abundance estimates. The influence of water temperature on the distribution of groundfishes is also briefly examined. Abundance estimates of canary rockfish, Sebastes pinniger, and yellowtail rockfish, S. Jlavidus, declined during the study period; greater declines were observed in Pacific ocean perch, S. alutus, lingcod, Ophiodon elongatus, and arrowtooth flounder, Atheresthes stomias. Biomass estimates of Pacific hake, Merluccius productus, and English, rex, and Dover soles (Pleuronectes vetulus, Errex zachirus, and Microstomus pacificus) increased, while bocaccio, S. paucispinis, and chilipepper, S. goodei, were stable. Sablefish, Anoplopoma fimbria, biomass estimates increased markedly from 1977 to 1980 and declined moderately thereafter. Precision was lowest for rockfishes, lingcod, and sablefish; it was highest for flatfishes because they were uniformly distributed. The accuracy of survey estimates could be gauged only for yellowtail and canary rockfish and sablefish. All fishery-based analyses produced much larger estimates of abundance than bottom trawl surveys-indicative of the true catchability of survey trawls. Population trends from all analyses compared well except in canary rockfish, the species that presents the greatest challenge to obtaining reasonable precision and one that casts doubts on the usefulness of bottom trawl surveys for estimating its abundance. (PDF file contains 78 pages.)

The Distribution of Kemp's Ridley Sea Turtles (Lepidochelys kempi) Along the Texas Coast: An Atlas

Eight hundred sixty-five records of Kemp's ridley sea turtles (Lepidochelys kempi) reported from Texas between the late 1940's to April 1990 were compiled from six data bases and the literature, then plotted on a series of Texas maps. Four categories of Kemp's ridleys are identified throughout the atlas: head-started (turtles that are raised in captivity their first year of life), wild, historical (pre-1980), and nesters. Geographic, seasonal, and size distributions of the turtle categories are plotted by regions. Most Kemp's ridleys were reported from the northeast and central Texas coast. They were reported from both inshore (landward of barrier islands) and offshore (seaward of barrier islands). Scattered nestings occurred in the central to southern regions. Kemp's ridleys were found more often during the spring and summer. A total of 546 turtle records contained measurements; most were 20-59.9 cm curved carapace length and considered sub-adults. Comparison of distributions of head-started and wild Kemp's ridleys suggests head-started Kemp's ridleys inhabit the same areas as wild Kemp's ridleys. (PDF file contains 56 pages.)

Early-life-history profiles, seasonal abundance, and distribution of four species of Carangid larvae off Louisiana, 1982 and 1983

We present data on ichthyoplankton distribution, abundance, and seasonality and supporting environmental information for four species of coastal pelagics from the family Carangidae: blue runner Caranx crysos, Atlantic bumper Chloroscombrus chrysurus, round scad Decapterus punctatus, and rough scad Trachurus lathami. Data are from 1982 and 1983 cruises off Louisiana sponsored by the Southeastern Area Monitoring and Assessment Program (SEAMAP). Bioprofiles on reproductive biology, early life history, meristics, adult distribution, and fisheries characteristics are also presented for these species. Maximum abundances of larval blue runner, Atlantic bumper, and round scad were found in July inside the 4O-m isobath, although during the rest of the cruises these species were rarely found together. Larval Atlantic bumper were captured in June and July only; blue runner in May, June, and July; and round scad in all seasons. Atlantic bumper larvae, concentrated mostly off western Louisiana, were by far the most abundant carangid in 1982 and 1983. Larval blue runner were the second most abundant summer-spawned carangid in 1982 and 1983, but their abundance and depth distribution varied considerably between years. Relative abundance of larval round scad off Louisiana was low, and they were captured only west of the Mississippi River delta, although they are reported to dominate carangid populations in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Rough scad were primarily winter/spring and outer-shelf (40-182 m) spawners. They ranked third in overall abundance, but were the most abundant target carangid on the outer shelf. Ecological parameters such as surface salinity, temperature, and station depth are presented from capture sites for recently hatched larvae <2.5 mm notochord length, except round scad) as well as for all sizes of fish below 14 mm standard length. (PDF file contains 44 pages.)

Online exercise for the design and simulation of PCR and PCR-RFLP experiments

[EN] Background: Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) and Restriction Fragment Length Polymorphism of PCR products (PCR-RFLP) are extensively used molecular biology techniques. An exercise for the design and simulation of PCR and PCR-RFLP experiments will be a useful educational tool. Findings: An online PCR and PCR-RFLP exercise has been create that requires users to find the target genes,compare them, design primers, search for restriction endonucleases, and finally to simulate the experiment. Each user of the service is randomly assigned a gene from Escherichia coli; to complete the exercise, users must design an experiment capable of distinguishing among E. coli strains. By applying the experimental procedure to all completely sequenced E. coli, a basic understanding of strain comparison and clustering can also be acquired. Comparison of results obtained in different experiments is also very instructive. Conclusions: The exercise is freely available at http://insilico.ehu.es/edu.

The COMT Val158 Met polymorphism as an associated risk factor for Alzheimer disease and mild cognitive impairment in APOE 4 carriers

Background: The aim of this study is to examine the influence of the catechol-O-methyltranferase (COMT) gene (polymorphism Val158 Met) as a risk factor for Alzheimer's disease (AD) and mild cognitive impairment of amnesic type (MCI), and its synergistic effect with the apolipoprotein E gene (APOE). A total of 223 MCI patients, 345 AD and 253 healthy controls were analyzed. Clinical criteria and neuropsychological tests were used to establish diagnostic groups. The DNA Bank of the University of the Basque Country (UPV-EHU) (Spain) determined COMT Val158 Met and APOE genotypes using real time polymerase chain reaction (rtPCR) and polymerase chain reaction (PCR), and restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLPs), respectively. Multinomial logistic regression models were used to determine the risk of AD and MCI. Results: Neither COMT alleles nor genotypes were independent risk factors for AD or MCI. The high activity genotypes (GG and AG) showed a synergistic effect with APOE epsilon 4 allele, increasing the risk of AD (OR = 5.96, 95% CI 2.74-12.94, p < 0.001 and OR = 6.71, 95% CI 3.36-13.41, p < 0.001 respectivily). In AD patients this effect was greater in women. In MCI patients such as synergistic effect was only found between AG and APOE epsilon 4 allele (OR = 3.21 95% CI 1.56-6.63, p = 0.02) and was greater in men (OR = 5.88 95% CI 1.69-20.42, p < 0.01). Conclusion: COMT (Val158 Met) polymorphism is not an independent risk factor for AD or MCI, but shows a synergistic effect with APOE epsilon 4 allele that proves greater in women with AD.

Fishery resource surveys: beyond length-weight relationship models

Fisheries resource surveys are regular management tools for rational exploitation of commercial fisheries. In a growing number of cases, the use of these resource surveys has been largely restricted to assessment of the relative well being of fish stocks and the potential yields of such fisheries. This paper seeks to demonstrate that the data from such surveys can also be easily used to evaluate species diversity of such fisheries, both in terms of species richness and equitability of distribution. Using published data on two freshwater and two marine fisheries as case studies, Shannon-Wiener Diversity Function and Simpson's Index were computed for each of these fisheries. These biodiversity indices gave a deeper insight into the environmental status of each of these fisheries, beyond what the length-weight relationship models can reveal. Generally, while the marine fisheries showed more species richness, the freshwater fisheries apparently had more stable and equilibrated fish communities