Bayesian methodology incorporating expert judgment for ranking countermeasure effectiveness under uncertainty: Example applied to at grade railroad crossings in Korea

This paper describes the formalization and application of a methodology to evaluate the safety benefit of countermeasures in the face of uncertainty. To illustrate the methodology, 18 countermeasures for improving safety of at grade railroad crossings (AGRXs) in the Republic of Korea are considered. Akin to “stated preference” methods in travel survey research, the methodology applies random selection and laws of large numbers to derive accident modification factor (AMF) densities from expert opinions. In a full Bayesian analysis framework, the collective opinions in the form of AMF densities (data likelihood) are combined with prior knowledge (AMF density priors) for the 18 countermeasures to obtain ‘best’ estimates of AMFs (AMF posterior credible intervals). The countermeasures are then compared and recommended based on the largest safety returns with minimum risk (uncertainty). To the author's knowledge the complete methodology is new and has not previously been applied or reported in the literature. The results demonstrate that the methodology is able to discern anticipated safety benefit differences across candidate countermeasures. For the 18 at grade railroad crossings considered in this analysis, it was found that the top three performing countermeasures for reducing crashes are in-vehicle warning systems, obstacle detection systems, and constant warning time systems.

Experimental evidences in bearing diagnostics for traction system of high speed trains

Rolling element bearings are the most critical components in the traction system of high speed trains. Monitoring their integrity is a fundamental operation in order to avoid catastrophic failures and to implement effective condition based maintenance strategies. Generally, diagnostics of rolling element bearings is usually performed by analyzing vibration signals measured by accelerometers placed in the proximity of the bearing under investigation. Several papers have been published on this subject in the last two decades, mainly devoted to the development and assessment of signal processing techniques for diagnostics. The experimental validation of such techniques has been traditionally performed by means of laboratory tests on artificially damaged bearings, while their actual effectiveness in specific industrial applications, particularly in rail industry, remains scarcely investigated. This paper is aimed at filling this knowledge gap, by addressing the diagnostics of bearings taken from the service after a long term operation on the traction system of a high speed train. Moreover, in order to test the effectiveness of the diagnostic procedures in the environmental conditions peculiar to the rail application, a specific test-rig has been built, consisting of a complete full-scale train traction system, able to reproduce the effects of wheeltrack interaction and bogie-wheelset dynamics. The results of the experimental campaign show that suitable signal processing techniques are able to diagnose bearing failures even in this harsh and noisy application. Moreover, the most suitable location of the sensors on the traction system is proposed, in order to limit their number.

Cyclic plastic deformation characteristics of subgrade under moving train wheel load

Cyclic plastic deformation of subgrade and other engineered layers is generally not taken into account in the design of railway bridge transition zones, although the plastic deformation is the governing factor of frequent track deterioration. Actual stress behavior of fine grained subgrade/embankment layers under train traffic is, however, difficult to replicate using the conventional laboratory test apparatus and techniques. A new type of torsional simple shear apparatus, known as multi-ring shear apparatus, was therefore developed to evaluate the actual stress state and the corresponding cyclic plastic deformation characteristics of subgrade materials under moving wheel load conditions. Multi-ring shear test results has been validated using a theoretical model test results; the capability of the multi-ring shear apparatus for replicating the cyclic plastic deformation characteristics of subgrade under moving train wheel load conditions is thus established. This paper describes the effects of principal stress rotation (PSR) of the subgrade materials to the cyclic plastic deformation in a railroad and impacts of testing methods in evaluating the influence of principal stress rotation to the track deterioration of rail track.

Brotherhood Coin

Obverse: 2 Sheqalim silver coin. Emblem of the State of Israel in the center of the coin. Reverse: Stylized background, inscription.

Legacies of War--[Ten percent terror]

Ten Percent Terror brings together leading creatives from the fields of contemporary theatre, contemporary dance, music theatre, circus and digital arts in the first collaboration of its kind. Commissioned by Brisbane Powerhouse, with support from the Anzac Centenary Arts and Culture Fund and in partnership with Dancenorth and Company 2, this is an inter-disciplinary work that combines theatrical narrative with eloquent physicality, through circus and dance, to express certain truths of the soldiers' experience. This production will be a circus-narrative that uses the form and language of circus to express the key themes of risk, panic and brotherhood. Ten Percent Terror is intended to be a work of scale, yet also intimacy: of stillness and panic, inertia and chaos. Project partners, Dancenorth and Company 2, share the vision to use contemporary artistic disciplines to connect younger and modern audiences to the ANZAC legacy, perhaps offering a connection for those audiences that they may not find through more traditional art forms. The development process has included a community research project in Townsville, conducted by Shane Pike, which explored contemporary Australians’ stories through interviews with serving military personnel and the local community, as well as collecting photographic documentation and other artefacts from around Townsville. This was followed by an archival research project in Brisbane, where Pike reviewed letters, photographs and personal accounts of soldiers from WW1. The results of these projects will be used by the creative team to inform the development of Ten Percent Terror. Given Townsville’s reputation as Australia’s ‘garrison’ city, the project partners plan to deliver the world premiere performance of Ten Percent Terror in Townsville in late 2015. It is intended that Ten Percent Terror will receive its Brisbane premiere in November 2015 at Brisbane Powerhouse, as part of a four-performance season. This expert panel included discussion of the project and its place in analysing key aspects of Australia's wartime history.

Panama Railroad Station, Balboa, Canal Zone - Old Timers arriving Jan. 18, 1928

Leonard Carpenter Panama Canal Collection. Photographs: Views of Panama and the Canal. [Box 1] from the Special Collections & Area Studies Department, George A. Smathers Libraries, University of Florida.

A study of the proposed Diamond Creek Reservoir

Politically the Colorado river is an interstate as well as an international stream. Physically the basin divides itself distinctly into three sections. The upper section from head waters to the mouth of San Juan comprises about 40 percent of the total of the basin and affords about 87 percent of the total runoff, or an average of about 15 000 000 acre feet per annum. High mountains and cold weather are found in this section. The middle section from the mouth of San Juan to the mouth of the Williams comprises about 35 percent of the total area of the basin and supplies about 7 percent of the annual runoff. Narrow canyons and mild weather prevail in this section. The lower third of the basin is composed of mainly hot arid plains of low altitude. It comprises some 25 percent of the total area of the basin and furnishes about 6 percent of the average annual runoff.

The proposed Diamond Creek reservoir is located in the middle section and is wholly within the boundary of Arizona. The site is at the mouth of Diamond Creek and is only 16 m. from Beach Spring, a station on the Santa Fe railroad. It is solely a power project with a limited storage capacity. The dam which creats the reservoir is of the gravity type to be constructed across the river. The walls and foundation are of granite. For a dam of 290 feet in height, the back water will be about 25 m. up the river.

The power house will be placed right below the dam perpendicular to the axis of the river. It is entirely a concrete structure. The power installation would consist of eighteen 37 500 H.P. vertical, variable head turbines, directly connected to 28 000 kwa. 110 000 v. 3 phase, 60 cycle generators with necessary switching and auxiliary apparatus. Each unit is to be fed by a separate penstock wholly embedded into the masonry.

Concerning the power market, the main electric transmission lines would extend to Prescott, Phoenix, Mesa, Florence etc. The mining regions of the mountains of Arizona would be the most adequate market. The demand of power in the above named places might not be large at present. It will, from the observation of the writer, rapidly increase with the wonderful advancement of all kinds of industrial development.

All these things being comparatively feasible, there is one difficult problem: that is the silt. At the Diamond Creek dam site the average annual silt discharge is about 82 650 acre feet. The geographical conditions, however, will not permit silt deposites right in the reservoir. So this design will be made under the assumption given in Section 4.

The silt condition and the change of lower course of the Colorado are much like those of the Yellow River in China. But one thing is different. On the Colorado most of the canyon walls are of granite, while those on the Yellow are of alluvial loess: so it is very hard, if not impossible, to get a favorable dam site on the lower part. As a visitor to this country, I should like to see the full development of the Colorado: but how about THE YELLOW!

Report of an investigation of a plan of elimination of grade crossings on the A.T. & S.F. Ry. in the city of Pasadena, California

The problem of the Atchison, Topeka, and Santa Fe railroad in Pasadena is a very dynamic one, as is readily recognized by engineers, city officials, and laymen. The route of the railroad was first laid out in the eighties and because of certain liberal concessions granted by the City of Pasadena, the right-of-way was located through Pasadena, despite the fact that the grade coming into the city either from Los Angeles or San Bernardino was enormous. Some years later, other transcontinental routes of the Santa Fe out of Los Angles were sought, and a right-of-way was obtained by way of Fullerton and Riverside to San Bernardino, where this route joins the one from Los Angeles through Pasadena. This route, however, is ten miles longer than the one through Pasadena, which means a considerable loss of time in a short diversion of approximately only sixty miles in length.

Experiment on Qinghai-Tibet railroad subgrade temperature monitoring based on FBG sensors

Qinghai-Tibet Railway is the longest and highest plateau railway in the world. A long term monitoring system of the stability of the subgrade in the permafrost regions should be put forward immediately to prevent damage to the railway. As it's very difficult to set up the long-distance automatic monitoring system which contains a lot of measure points along the 550 kilometers railway in the permafrost area, we present a subgrade temperature monitor system based on fiber Bragg grating (FBG). In this paper the principles of the FBG was presented, and the feasibility of the FBG sensors in the permafrost area of Qinghai-Tibet plateau was analysized. We embedded fifteen FBG temperature sensors and thermal resistance temperature sensors. A contrast experiment is made while the two kinds of sensors are arranged in the same position. The result of the experiment shows that the accuracy of the FBG temperature sensors is less than 0.1 degrees C. and the FBG sensors can do well in the measurement of pattern which the temperature varies with the depth of the permafrost soil. The result also shows the stability of the FBG sensors in the bad environmental condition of Qinghai-Tibet plateau, which proves the feasibility of the application of FBG sensors and our monitoring system on the Qinghai-Tibet railway.

Towards Intelligent Structures: Active Control of Buckling

The buckling of compressively-loaded members is one of the most important factors limiting the overall strength and stability of a structure. I have developed novel techniques for using active control to wiggle a structural element in such a way that buckling is prevented. I present the results of analysis, simulation, and experimentation to show that buckling can be prevented through computer-controlled adjustment of dynamical behavior.sI have constructed a small-scale railroad-style truss bridge that contains compressive members that actively resist buckling through the use of piezo-electric actuators. I have also constructed a prototype actively controlled column in which the control forces are applied by tendons, as well as a composite steel column that incorporates piezo-ceramic actuators that are used to counteract buckling. Active control of buckling allows this composite column to support 5.6 times more load than would otherwise be possible.sThese techniques promise to lead to intelligent physical structures that are both stronger and lighter than would otherwise be possible.

Ben Marais (1909-1999): The influences on and heritage of a South African Prophet during two periods of transformation

University of Pretoria / Dissertation / Department of Church History and Church Policy / Advised by Prof J W Hofmeyr

Symmetrical freedom quilts: the ethnomathematics of ways of communication, liberation, and art

Symmetrical Freedom Quilts may be considered as links between mathematics, history, ethnomathematics, and the art of quilting. A quilt theme is a pedagogical way to integrate mathematics, art, and history in an interdisciplinary approach. This article combines an ethnomathematical-historical perspective by elaborating a history project related to the Underground Railroad. This work will allow teachers to develop classroom projects that help students to better understand geometry, especially concepts of symmetry and transformations. One of the objectives of this project is to stimulate student’s creativity and interest, because quilts may be considered as cultural and mathematical expressions of student’s daily life.

Estimating the flow rate capacity of an overturned rail carriage end exit in the presence of smoke

While incidents requiring the rapid egress of passengers from trains are infrequent, perhaps the most challenging scenario for passengers involves the evacuation from an overturned carriage subjected to fire. In this paper we attempt to estimate the flow rate capacity of an overturned rail carriage end exit. This was achieved through two full-scale evacuation experiments, in one of which the participants were subjected to non-toxic smoke. The experiments were conducted as part of a pilot study into evacuation from rail carriages. In reviewing the experimental results, it should be noted that only a single run of each trial was undertaken with a limited — though varied — population. As a result it is not possible to test the statistical significance of the evacuation times quoted and so the results should be treated as indicative rather than definitive. The carriage used in the experiments was a standard class Mark IID which, while an old carriage design, shares many features with those carriages commonly found on the British rail network. In the evacuation involving smoke, the carriage end exit was found to achieve an average flow rate capacity of approximately 5.0 persons/min. The average flow rate capacity of the exit without smoke was found to be approximately 9.2 persons/min. It was noted that the presence of smoke tended to reduce significantly the exit flow rate. Due to the nature of the experimental conditions, these flow rates are considered optimistic. Finally, the authors make several recommendations for improving survivability in rail accidents. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

An introduction to China's rail transport Part 1: History, present and future of China's railways

In this paper an introduction is given to the history, current situation and future plans of China's railway industry. The history of China's railway is divided into four development phases: the phase in Imperial China, the phase in the Republic of China and the phases before and after the economic rejuvenation of the People's Republic of China. An introduction to the current situation and future plans includes the major projects under construction and development trends of China's railways. The environment of China's railways is also presented. This is the first of two papers on the railway scene in China.

An introduction to China's rail transport Part 2: Urban rail transit systems, highway transport and the reform of China's railways

In this paper, an introduction is provided to some of the components of China's transport system. The authors include the urban rail transit systems, the highway transport systems and its competition for China's railways and the reform of China's railway industry. This is the second of two papers on the situation of rail transport in China.