Fiscal sustainability and fiscal shocks in a dollarized and oil-exporting country: Ecuador

This paper investigates the fiscal sustainability of an emerging, dollarized, oil-exporting country: Ecuador. A cointegrated VAR approach is adopted in testing, first, if the intertemporal budget constraint is satisfied in Ecuador and, second, in identifying the permanent and transitory shocks that affect a fiscal policy characterized by inertia and a heavy dependence on oil revenues. Following confirmation that the debt-GDP ratio does not place the Ecuadorian budget under any pressure, we reformulate the model and identify two forces that push the fiscal system out of equilibrium, namely, economic activity and oil revenues implemented in the government budget. We argue that Ecuador needs to recover control of its monetary policy and to promote the diversification of its economy in order that non-oil tax revenues can replace oil revenues as a pushing force. Finally, we calculate quarterly elasticities of tax revenues with respect to Ecuador’s GDP and that of eight Eurozone countries. We illustrate graphically how the Eurozone countries with low positive or high negative elasticities’ levels suffer debt problems after the crisis. This finding emphasizes the pressing need for Ecuador to strengthen the connection between its tax revenues and output, and also suggests that the convergence of these elasticities in the Eurozone might contribute to the success of an eventually future fiscal union.

One more lie: the Monday effect in Spain’s retail petrol market

Empirical evidence drawn from the economic literature points to a low level of competition in the retail petrol market. Similar evidence can be found for the Spanish market. In fact, both Spain’s antitrust authority -Comisión Nacional de la Competencia- and its energy regulator -Comisión Nacional de la Energía- have recently initiated disciplinary proceedings against the majors on the grounds of suspected price manipulation in the retail petrol market. They are accused of cutting retail prices on Mondays so as to distort the rank position of Spain in European Union statistics in a practice that has received the name of the Monday effect. Here, we analyze this effect by constructing a database that includes daily retail prices for all petrol stations in Spain in the period 2009-2012, and a more detailed database for the city of Barcelona in 2013. Our estimations confirm that: 1- in 2011 and 2012 prices fell on Mondays at retailers branded by majors; 2- prices were unchanged at stations in our two control groups; 3- prices were also seen to fall when a more detailed analysis was conducted, and this price cut was also found in 2013. In short, one more indicator of collusion in this sector and … one more lie.

Mergers and difference-in-difference estimator : why firms do not increase prices?

Difference-in-Difference (DiD) methods are being increasingly used to analyze the impact of mergers on pricing and other market equilibrium outcomes. Using evidence from an exogenous merger between two retail gasoline companies in a specific market in Spain, this paper shows how concentration did not lead to a price increase. In fact, the conjectural variation model concludes that the existence of a collusive agreement before and after the merger accounts for this result, rather than the existence of efficient gains. This result may explain empirical evidence reported in the literature according to which mergers between firms do not have significant effects on prices.

Vertical relations and local competition : an empirical approach

The analysis of vertical industry relations forms an essential element in the field of industrial organization. This paper tests hypotheses derived from transaction cost theory and the principal-agent problem in Chile’s petrol market. It shows that local competition plays an important role in the choice of a disintegrated vertical structure, and that low levels of service investment have the same effect. Conversely, the number of own-brand outlets and a high level of investment in services reduce the probability of disintegration. The paper demonstrates that vertical disintegration has a null effect on wholesale petrol prices and a positive effect on retail petrol prices of between 1.6 and 7 per cent, depending on fuel type.

Symmetric or asymmetric gasoline prices? A meta-analysis approach

The analysis of price asymmetries in the gasoline market is one of the most studied in the energy economics literature. Nevertheless, the great variability of results makes it very difficult to extract conclusive results on the existence or not of asymmetries. This paper shows through a meta-analysis approach how the industry segment analysed, the quality and quantity of data, the estimator and the model used may explain this heterogeneity of results.

Efeito do campo magnético na precipitação de parafinas

In the oil industry, the paraffination phenomenon is a major problem during oil production, displacement and treatment. Paraffin deposition in subsea flowlines, surface equipment, production string or even in the reservoir, can cause significant and increasing oil losses. To minimize paraffin precipitation, the application of magnetic field in the petroleum path has been suggested based on empiric studies. In this study, we assembled a labscale magnetic conditioner to determine the influence of magnetic field on the physical-chemical properties of two fluids : oil and a paraffin mixture. We observed that magnetic field reduce sample aparent viscosity due to crystal morphology alteration.

Troca iônica no estado sólido de európio3+ em zeólita Y: influência do tempo de reação

Rare earth elements supported in zeolites are the most important catalysts in the fluid cracking of petroleum. The solid state ion exchange of Eu3+ in Y zeolite was investigated. First of all, the hydrated EuCl3 was well mixed in a ball mill and was then heated at 300ºC for different times. The quantitative determination of Eu3+ showed that the degree of ion exchange depends on the reaction time at constant temperature, being ~95% in 4 h. The X-ray study showed that the crystallinity of the zeolite is little affected by the exchange procedure. The study of spectroscopic properties of Eu3+, emission spectra and lifetime, give information about the migration and position of the ion in the zeolite cages.

Maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland in 2007 and in 2015

The Gulf of Finland is said to be one of the densest operated sea areas in the world. It is a shallow and economically vulnerable sea area with dense passenger and cargo traffic of which petroleum transports have a share of over 50 %. The winter conditions add to the risks of maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland. It is widely believed that the growth of maritime transportation will continue also in the future. The Gulf of Finland is surrounded by three very different national economies with, different maritime transportation structures. Finland is a country of high GDP/per capita with a diversified economic structure. The number of ports is large and the maritime transportation consists of many types of cargoes: raw materials, industrial products, consumer goods, coal and petroleum products, and the Russian transit traffic of e.g. new cars and consumer goods. Russia is a large country with huge growth potential; in recent years, the expansion of petroleum exports has lead to a strong economic growth, which is also apparent in the growth of maritime transports. Russia has been expanding its port activities in the Gulf of Finland and it is officially aiming to transport its own imports and exports through the Russian ports in the future; now they are being transported to great extend through the Finnish, Estonian and other Baltic ports. Russia has five ports in the Gulf of Finland. Estonia has also experienced fast economic growth, but the growth has been slowing down already during the past couples of years. The size of its economy is small compared to Russia, which means the transported tonnes cannot be very massive. However, relatively large amounts of the Russian petroleum exports have been transported through the Estonian ports. The future of the Russian transit traffic in Estonia looks nevertheless uncertain and it remains to be seen how it will develop and if Estonia is able to find replacing cargoes if the Russian transit traffic will come to an end in the Estonian ports. Estonia’s own import and export consists of forestry products, metals or other raw materials and consumer goods. Estonia has many ports on the shores of the Gulf of Finland, but the port of Tallinn dominates the cargo volumes. In 2007, 263 M tonnes of cargoes were transported in the maritime traffic in the Gulf of Finland, of which the share of petroleum products was 56 %. 23 % of the cargoes were loaded or unloaded in the Finnish ports, 60 % in the Russian ports and 17 % in the Estonian ports. The largest ports were Primorsk (74.2 M tonnes) St. Petersburg (59.5 M tonnes), Tallinn (35.9 M tonnes), Sköldvik (19.8 M tonnes), Vysotsk (16.5 M tonnes) and Helsinki (13.4 M) tonnes. Approximately 53 600 ship calls were made in the ports of the Gulf of Finland. The densest traffic was found in the ports of St. Petersburg (14 651 ship calls), Helsinki (11 727 ship calls) and Tallinn (10 614 ship calls) in 2007. The transportation scenarios are usually based on the assumption that the amount of transports follows the development of the economy, although also other factors influence the development of transportation, e.g. government policy, environmental aspects, and social and behavioural trends. The relationship between the development of transportation and the economy is usually analyzed in terms of the development of GDP and trade. When the GDP grows to a certain level, especially the international transports increase because countries of high GDP produce, consume and thus transport more. An effective transportation system is also a precondition for the economic development. In this study, the following factors were taken into consideration when formulating the future scenarios: maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland 2007, economic development, development of key industries, development of infrastructure and environmental aspects in relation to maritime transportation. The basic starting points for the three alternative scenarios were: • the slow growth scenario: economic recession • the average growth scenario: economy will recover quickly from current instability • the strong growth scenario: the most optimistic views on development will realize According to the slow growth scenario, the total tonnes for the maritime transportation in the Gulf of Finland would be 322.4 M tonnes in 2015, which would mean a growth of 23 % compared to 2007. In the average growth scenario, the total tonnes were estimated to be 431.6 M tonnes – a growth of 64 %, and in the strong growth scenario 507.2 M tonnes – a growth of 93%. These tonnes were further divided into petroleum products and other cargoes by country, into export, import and domestic traffic by country, and between the ports. For petroleum products, the share of crude oil and oil products was estimated and the number of tanker calls in 2015 was calculated for each scenario. However, the future development of maritime transportation in the GoF is dependent on so many societal and economic variables that it is not realistic to predict one exact point estimate value for the cargo tonnes for a certain scenario. Plenty of uncertainty is related both to the degree in which the scenario will come true as well as to the cause-effect relations between the different variables. For these reasons, probability distributions for each scenario were formulated by an expert group. As a result, a range for the total tonnes of each scenario was formulated and they are as follows: the slow growth scenario: 280.8 – 363 M tonnes (expectation value 322.4 M tonnes)

Comparação entre injeção na coluna ("on-column") e headspace dinâmico na determinação de benzeno, tolueno e xilenos (BTX) em amostras de água

The analysis of water samples containing volatile organic compounds has become an important task in analytical chemistry. Gas chromatography has been widely used for the analysis of volatile organic compounds in water. The headspace analysis shows as a principal characteristic the possibility of determination of the volatile components in drinking water. Benzene, Toluene and Xylene (BTX) are important compounds usually present in drinking water, from contamination by petroleum derivatives. Since they are toxic compounds even when present in low concentration levels, their determination is important in order to define the quality of the water. The sampling technique using headspace, coupled with gas chromatography as the separation method, showed to be suitable for BTX analysis in several samples at the mug/L (ppb) level.

A indústria petroquímica no próximo século: como substituir o petróleo como matéria-prima?

The world reserves of petroleum will finish in about 100 years. For a tropical country like Brazil, biomass will be the natural substitute for petroleum. For the best utilization of biomass, it first needs to be separated into its principal components: cellulose, hemicelluloses, lignins, vegetable and essential oils, non-structural carbohydrates, bark and foliage. All feedstocks for the chemical industry can be obtained from these biomass components, as shown in the first part of this paper. In the second part we discuss how the major products from petrochemicals can be obtained from the different biomass components. We show that Brazil can use different strategies, compared to other countries, to obtain petrochemical products, which could result in innovations. However, it is necessary that the government starts to invest immediately in order to keep the petrochemical industries competitive with foreign industries, so that they continue to be one of Brazil's major employers.

Natureza do coque formado sobre a mordenita durante a transalquilação de benzeno

Zeolite catalysts have been extensively used in petroleum refining and the chemical industry although they are deactivated by coke deposition. In order to find the best condition to avoid deactivation, the coke formation on H-mordenite was studied in this work. The coke was produced during benzene transalkylation with C9+ aromatics, under several reaction conditions. It was found that hydrogenated coke was produced in all samples without affecting the selectivity of toluene and xylene formation. This is explained in terms of the mordenite structure and the presence of hydrogen.

A destilação simulada na indústria do petróleo

One of the most widely used physico-chemical characterizations of hydrocarbon mixtures is the determination of their boiling point distribution. Knowledge of the boiling range of crude oils and petroleum products is essential to ensure the correct specification of final products and to control refinery processes. Simulated distillation, a GC based process, has been playing this role for the past decades in the petroleum industry. The main purpose of this work is to show the fundamentals of this technique as well as its present trends.

Avaliação de indicadores de uso diverso como inibidores de corrosão

Very often hydrochloric acid is employed in acidification operations aiming to dissolve the mineral matrix in petroleum wheel operations, which always require intense use of corrosion inhibitors. This work presents an evaluation of common indicators, phenolfthaleine, fluorescein, methylene blue, alizarine S and methyl orange, as corrosion inhibitors for carbon steel in HCl 15% w/v at temperatures of 26, 40 and 60 ºC. Fluorescein and methyl orange show excelent corrosion inhibition efficiencies at 26 ºC; however at 60 ºC only fluorescein shows good corrosion inhibition when employed with alcohol and/or formaldehyde. For the fluorescein 1% w/v + formaldehyde 0.6% w/v mixture we present polarization and impedance curves and adsorption isotherms.

Determinação das formas de nitrogênio e nitrogênio total em rochas-reservatório de petróleo por destilação com arraste de vapor e método do indofenol

Several extraction procedures are described for the determination of exchangeable and fixed ammonium, nitrate + nitrite, total exchangeable nitrogen and total nitrogen in certified reference soils and petroleum reservoir rock samples by steam distillation and indophenol method. After improvement of the original distillation system, an increase in worker safety, a reduction in time consumption, a decrease of 73% in blank value and an analysis without ammonia loss, which could possibly occur, were achieved. The precision (RSD < 8%, n = 3) and the detection limit (9 mg kg-1 NH4+-N) are better than those of published procedures.

Aplicação catalítica de peneiras moleculares básicas micro e mesoporosas

Catalysis by solid acids has received much attention due to its importance in petroleum refining and petrochemical processes. Relatively few studies have focused on catalysis by bases and even les on using basic molecular sieves. This paper deals with the potential application of micro and mesoporous molecular sieves in base catalysis reactions. The paper is divided in two parts, the first one dedicated to the design of the catalysts and the second to some relevant examples of catalytic reactions, which find a huge field of applications essentially in the synthesis of fine chemicals. Here, recent developments in catalysis by basic molecular sieves and the perspectives of applications in correlated catalytic processes are described.