Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science

Continuing developments in science and technology mean that the amounts of information forensic scientists are able to provide for criminal investigations is ever increasing. The commensurate increase in complexity creates difficulties for scientists and lawyers with regard to evaluation and interpretation, notably with respect to issues of inference and decision. Probability theory, implemented through graphical methods, and specifically Bayesian networks, provides powerful methods to deal with this complexity. Extensions of these methods to elements of decision theory provide further support and assistance to the judicial system. Bayesian Networks for Probabilistic Inference and Decision Analysis in Forensic Science provides a unique and comprehensive introduction to the use of Bayesian decision networks for the evaluation and interpretation of scientific findings in forensic science, and for the support of decision-makers in their scientific and legal tasks. Includes self-contained introductions to probability and decision theory. Develops the characteristics of Bayesian networks, object-oriented Bayesian networks and their extension to decision models. Features implementation of the methodology with reference to commercial and academically available software. Presents standard networks and their extensions that can be easily implemented and that can assist in the reader's own analysis of real cases. Provides a technique for structuring problems and organizing data based on methods and principles of scientific reasoning. Contains a method for the construction of coherent and defensible arguments for the analysis and evaluation of scientific findings and for decisions based on them. Is written in a lucid style, suitable for forensic scientists and lawyers with minimal mathematical background. Includes a foreword by Ian Evett. The clear and accessible style of this second edition makes this book ideal for all forensic scientists, applied statisticians and graduate students wishing to evaluate forensic findings from the perspective of probability and decision analysis. It will also appeal to lawyers and other scientists and professionals interested in the evaluation and interpretation of forensic findings, including decision making based on scientific information.

Revisiting the diacylglycerol-induced insulin resistance hypothesis.

Obesity is associated with skeletal muscle insulin resistance, which is a crucial step in the development of type 2 diabetes. Among the mechanisms by which obesity may lead to insulin resistance, lipotoxicity is one of the hypotheses being explored; others include inflammation or the oxidative stress hypotheses. This review focuses on the role of diacylglycerols (DAG), a family of lipid metabolites implicated in the pathogenesis of lipotoxicity and insulin resistance. While recent studies report contradictory results in humans with regard to the importance of DAG-induced insulin resistance in skeletal muscle, other current literature highlight a potential role for DAG as signalling molecules. This review will discuss possible hypotheses explaining these contradictory results and the need to explore further the role of DAG in human metabolism.

Use of Treponema pallidum PCR in Testing of Ulcers for Diagnosis of Primary Syphilis(1.).

Treponema pallidum PCR (Tp-PCR) has been noted as a valid method for diagnosing syphilis. We compared Tp-PCR to a combination of darkfield microscopy (DFM), the reference method, and serologic testing in a cohort of 273 patients from France and Switzerland and found the diagnostic accuracy of Tp-PCR was higher than that for DFM.

Endogenous steroid profiling in the athlete biological passport.

The Athlete Biological Passport (ABP) is an individual electronic document that collects data regarding a specific athlete that is useful in differentiating between natural physiologic variations of selected biomarkers and deviations caused by artificial manipulations. A subsidiary of the endocrine module of the ABP, that which here is called Athlete Steroidal Passport (ASP), collects data on markers of an altered metabolism of endogenous steroidal hormones measured in urine samples. The ASP aims to identify not only doping with anabolic-androgenic steroids, but also most indirect steroid doping strategies such as doping with estrogen receptor antagonists and aromatase inhibitors. Development of specific markers of steroid doping, use of the athlete's previous measurements to define individual limits, with the athlete becoming his or her own reference, the inclusion of heterogeneous factors such as the UDPglucuronosyltransferase B17 genotype of the athlete, the knowledge of potentially confounding effects such as heavy alcohol consumption, the development of an external quality control system to control analytical uncertainty, and finally the use of Bayesian inferential methods to evaluate the value of indirect evidence have made the ASP a valuable alternative to deter steroid doping in elite sports. The ASP can be used to target athletes for gas chromatography/combustion/ isotope ratio mass spectrometry (GC/C/IRMS) testing, to withdraw temporarily the athlete from competing when an abnormality has been detected, and ultimately to lead to an antidoping infraction if that abnormality cannot be explained by a medical condition. Although the ASP has been developed primarily to ensure fairness in elite sports, its application in endocrinology for clinical purposes is straightforward in an evidence-based medicine paradigm.

South American monkeys in the development and testing of malarial vaccines - a review

South American Aoutus an d Saimiri monkeys, which are susceptible to infection with human malarias, have been used to develop models for the testing of huma malaria vaccines. Studies indicate that blood-stage and sporozoite vaccines can be tested in these monkeys using appropriate strains of parasites.

Development of an optimized methodology for tensile testing of carbon steels in hydrogen environment

The study was performed at OCAS, the Steel Research Centre of ArcelorMittal for the Industry market. The major aim of this research was to obtain an optimized tensile testing methodology with in-situ H-charging to reveal the hydrogen embrittlement in various high strength steels. The second aim of this study has been the mechanical characterization of the hydrogen effect on hight strength carbon steels with varying microstructure, i.e. ferrite-martensite and ferrite-bainite grades. The optimal parameters for H-charging - which influence the tensile test results (sample geometry type of electrolyte, charging methods effect of steel type, etc.) - were defined and applied to Slow Strain Rate testing, Incremental Step Loading and Constant Load Testing. To better understand the initiation and propagation of cracks during tensile testing with in-situ H-charging, and to make the correlation with crystallographic orientation, some materials have been analyzed in the SEM in combination with the EBSD technique. The introduction of a notch on the tensile samples permits to reach a significantly improved reproducibility of the results. Comparing the various steel grades reveals that Dual Phase (ferrite-martensite) steels are more sensitive to hydrogen induced cracking than the FB (ferritic-bainitic) ones. This higher sensitivity to hydrogen was found back in the reduced failure times, increased creep rates and enhanced crack initiation (SEM) for the Dual Phase steels in comparison with the FB steels.

Testing, not modelling, the impact of cohesion support: a theoretical framework and some preliminary results for the Spanish regions

This paper develops a simple model that can be used to estimate the effectiveness of Cohesion expenditure relative to similar but unsubsidized projects, thereby making it possible to explicitly test an important assumption that is often implicit in estimates of the impact of Cohesion policies. Some preliminary results are reported for the case of infrastructure investment in the Spanish regions.

Techniques for analytical testing of unconventional samples.

Forensic scientists have long detected the presence of drugs and their metabolites in biological materials using body fluids such as urine, blood and/or other biological liquids or tissues. For doping analysis, only urine has so far been collected. In recent years, remarkable advances in sensitive analytical techniques have encouraged the analysis of drugs in unconventional biological samples such as hair, saliva and sweat. These samples are easily collected, although drug levels are often lower than the corresponding levels in urine or blood. This chapter reviews recent studies in the detection of doping agents in hair, saliva and sweat. Sampling, analytical procedures and interpretation of the results are discussed in comparison with those obtained from urine and blood samples.

Decision-theoretic analysis of forensic sampling criteria using Bayesian decision networks

Sampling issues represent a topic of ongoing interest to the forensic science community essentially because of their crucial role in laboratory planning and working protocols. For this purpose, forensic literature described thorough (Bayesian) probabilistic sampling approaches. These are now widely implemented in practice. They allow, for instance, to obtain probability statements that parameters of interest (e.g., the proportion of a seizure of items that present particular features, such as an illegal substance) satisfy particular criteria (e.g., a threshold or an otherwise limiting value). Currently, there are many approaches that allow one to derive probability statements relating to a population proportion, but questions on how a forensic decision maker - typically a client of a forensic examination or a scientist acting on behalf of a client - ought actually to decide about a proportion or a sample size, remained largely unexplored to date. The research presented here intends to address methodology from decision theory that may help to cope usefully with the wide range of sampling issues typically encountered in forensic science applications. The procedures explored in this paper enable scientists to address a variety of concepts such as the (net) value of sample information, the (expected) value of sample information or the (expected) decision loss. All of these aspects directly relate to questions that are regularly encountered in casework. Besides probability theory and Bayesian inference, the proposed approach requires some additional elements from decision theory that may increase the efforts needed for practical implementation. In view of this challenge, the present paper will emphasise the merits of graphical modelling concepts, such as decision trees and Bayesian decision networks. These can support forensic scientists in applying the methodology in practice. How this may be achieved is illustrated with several examples. The graphical devices invoked here also serve the purpose of supporting the discussion of the similarities, differences and complementary aspects of existing Bayesian probabilistic sampling criteria and the decision-theoretic approach proposed throughout this paper.

Bayesian classification criterion for forensic multivariate data

This study presents a classification criteria for two-class Cannabis seedlings. As the cultivation of drug type cannabis is forbidden in Switzerland, law enforcement authorities regularly ask laboratories to determine cannabis plant's chemotype from seized material in order to ascertain that the plantation is legal or not. In this study, the classification analysis is based on data obtained from the relative proportion of three major leaf compounds measured by gas-chromatography interfaced with mass spectrometry (GC-MS). The aim is to discriminate between drug type (illegal) and fiber type (legal) cannabis at an early stage of the growth. A Bayesian procedure is proposed: a Bayes factor is computed and classification is performed on the basis of the decision maker specifications (i.e. prior probability distributions on cannabis type and consequences of classification measured by losses). Classification rates are computed with two statistical models and results are compared. Sensitivity analysis is then performed to analyze the robustness of classification criteria.

Advanced mapping of environmental data: Geostatistics, Machine Learning and Bayesian Maximum Entropy

This book combines geostatistics and global mapping systems to present an up-to-the-minute study of environmental data. Featuring numerous case studies, the reference covers model dependent (geostatistics) and data driven (machine learning algorithms) analysis techniques such as risk mapping, conditional stochastic simulations, descriptions of spatial uncertainty and variability, artificial neural networks (ANN) for spatial data, Bayesian maximum entropy (BME), and more.

Detection of nandrolone metabolites in urine after a football game in professional and amateur players: a Bayesian comparison.

Nandrolone (19-nortestosterone) is a widely used anabolic steroid in sports where strength plays an essential role. Once nandrolone has been metabolised, two major metabolites are excreted in urine, 19-norandrosterone (NA) and 19-noretiocholanolone (NE). In 1997, in France, quite a few sportsmen had concentrations of 19-norandrosterone very close to the IOC cut off limit (2ng/ml). At that time, a debate took place about the capability of the human male body to produce by itself these metabolites without any intake of nandrolone or related compounds. The International Football Federation (FIFA) was very concerned with this problematic, especially because the World Cup was about to start in France. In this respect, a statistical study was held with all football players from the first and second divisions of the Swiss Football National League. All players gave a urine sample after effort and around 6% of them showed traces of 19-norandrosterone. These results were compared with amateur football players (control group) and around 6% of them had very small amounts of 19-norandrosterone and/or 19-noretiocholanolone in urine after effort, whereas none of them had detectable traces of one or the other metabolite before effort. The origin of these compounds in urine after a strenuous physical activity is still unknown, but three hypotheses can be put forward. First, an endogenous production of nandrolone metabolites takes place. Second, nandrolone metabolites are released from the fatty tissues after an intake of nandrolone, some related compounds or some contaminated nutritive supplements. Finally, the sportsmen may have taken something during or just before the football game.

Agar dilution method for susceptibility testing of Neisseria gonorrhoeae

The antibiotic susceptibilities of Neisseria gonorrhoeae isolates obtained from patients attending a clinic for sexually transmitted diseases in Tucumán, Argentina, were determined by the agar dilution method (MIC). 3.5% of the isolates produced ²-lactamase. A total of 96.5% of ²-lactamase negative isolates tested were susceptible to penicillin (MIC < 2 µgml-1); 14.03% of the tested isolates were resistant to tetracycline (MIC < 2 µgml-1), and 98% of the tested isolates were susceptible to spectinomycin (MIC < 64 µgml-1). The MICs for 95% of the isolates, tested for other drugs were: < 2 µgml-1 for cefoxitin, < 0.06 µgml-1 for cefotaxime, < 0.25 µgml-1 for norfloxacin, < 10 µgml-1 for cephaloridine, < 10 µgml-1 for cephalexin, and < 50 µgml-1 for kanamycin. Antibiotic resistance among N. gonorrhoeae isolates from Tucumán, Argentina, appeared to be primarily limited to penicillin and tetracycline, which has been a general use against gonorrhoeae in Tucumán since 1960. Periodic monitoring of the underlying susceptibility profiles of the N. gonorrhoeae strains prevalent in areas of frequent transmission may provide clues regarding treatment options and emerging of drug resistance.

Pilot study of induction chemotherapy followed by concomitant chemotherapy and IMRT or tomotherapy for nasopharyngeal carcinoma

Objective: Standard treatment of locally advanced (stages III and IV A-B) nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) consists in chemoradiotherapy with 5-y survival rates of around 60%. However, acute toxicity prevents the administration of adequate adjuvant chemotherapy in nearly half of the patients. This situation has led to the hypothesis that induction chemotherapy followed by chemoradiotherapy may be a superior approach. Many ongoing studies are testing the role of induction chemotherapy in this setting. Newer radiotherapy techniques are becoming available (intensity modulated radiotherapy [IMRT] and tomotherapy). They can achieve a higher degree of accuracy in conforming the radiation to the planned target volume while sparing normal tissue resulting in less acute and long-term toxicity. Methods: We report here our local experience of 11 consecutive locally advanced NPC patients treated between June 2004 and October 2007. Median age was 46 years (range, 17-65). All but one were male patients. Initial stage was stage III in 5, and stage IVA-B in 6 patients. Treatment consisted of 3 cycles of induction TCF (Docetaxel 75 mg/m2- Cisplatin 75 mg/m2- 5-fluorouracil 750 mg/m2/d 5 days) chemotherapy followed by concomitant chemoradiotherapy with 3 cycles of cisplatin (100 mg/m2), or carboplatin (AUC 5) in case of renal impairment. Radiotherapy was delivered by either IMRT or tomotherapy. Macroscopic disease (tumor + involved lymph nodes) was treated with 70 Gy, 2 Gy/fraction (IMRT), or 69.6 Gy, 1.12 Gy/fraction (simultaneus integrated boost [SIB] technique). Elective nodal irradiation of 46-54 Gy lymph was performed in all patients, whereas elective irradiation of the entire nasopharynx (60 Gy) half of patients. Results: All but one tumor were EBV positive. Induction chemotherapy was done as planned for 8 patients (73%). Two patients had only 2 cycles, 1 patient had only1 cycle of TCF, and the other without docetaxel. Concomitant chemotherapy was given as planned in 7 patients (64%). Four patients had only 2 cycles. Radiotherapy could be delivered as planned in all patients. Eight weeks post treatment all patients proved to have a CR (CR or uCR). After a median follow-up of 11 months (range, 6-38 months) only one patient has relapsed. Details on acute and 1 year toxicities will be presented. Conclusion: Treatment of locally advancedNPC with induction and concomitant chemotherapy is feasible and well tolerated. The use of IMRT or tomotherapy technique seems to ameliorate the therapeutic index particularly in regard with xerostomia. All our patients presented a complete response. For the assessment of survival and long-term toxicity, a longer follow-up period is needed.