A Bayesian changepoint analysis on spatio-temporal point processes

Changepoint analysis is a well established area of statistical research, but in the context of spatio-temporal point processes it is as yet relatively unexplored. Some substantial differences with regard to standard changepoint analysis have to be taken into account: firstly, at every time point the datum is an irregular pattern of points; secondly, in real situations issues of spatial dependence between points and temporal dependence within time segments raise. Our motivating example consists of data concerning the monitoring and recovery of radioactive particles from Sandside beach, North of Scotland; there have been two major changes in the equipment used to detect the particles, representing known potential changepoints in the number of retrieved particles. In addition, offshore particle retrieval campaigns are believed may reduce the particle intensity onshore with an unknown temporal lag; in this latter case, the problem concerns multiple unknown changepoints. We therefore propose a Bayesian approach for detecting multiple changepoints in the intensity function of a spatio-temporal point process, allowing for spatial and temporal dependence within segments. We use Log-Gaussian Cox Processes, a very flexible class of models suitable for environmental applications that can be implemented using integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA), a computationally efficient alternative to Monte Carlo Markov Chain methods for approximating the posterior distribution of the parameters. Once the posterior curve is obtained, we propose a few methods for detecting significant change points. We present a simulation study, which consists in generating spatio-temporal point pattern series under several scenarios; the performance of the methods is assessed in terms of type I and II errors, detected changepoint locations and accuracy of the segment intensity estimates. We finally apply the above methods to the motivating dataset and find good and sensible results about the presence and quality of changes in the process.

Modelling biogeochemical cycles in forest ecosystems: a Bayesian approach

Forest models are tools for explaining and predicting the dynamics of forest ecosystems. They simulate forest behavior by integrating information on the underlying processes in trees, soil and atmosphere. Bayesian calibration is the application of probability theory to parameter estimation. It is a method, applicable to all models, that quantifies output uncertainty and identifies key parameters and variables. This study aims at testing the Bayesian procedure for calibration to different types of forest models, to evaluate their performances and the uncertainties associated with them. In particular,we aimed at 1) applying a Bayesian framework to calibrate forest models and test their performances in different biomes and different environmental conditions, 2) identifying and solve structure-related issues in simple models, and 3) identifying the advantages of additional information made available when calibrating forest models with a Bayesian approach. We applied the Bayesian framework to calibrate the Prelued model on eight Italian eddy-covariance sites in Chapter 2. The ability of Prelued to reproduce the estimated Gross Primary Productivity (GPP) was tested over contrasting natural vegetation types that represented a wide range of climatic and environmental conditions. The issues related to Prelued's multiplicative structure were the main topic of Chapter 3: several different MCMC-based procedures were applied within a Bayesian framework to calibrate the model, and their performances were compared. A more complex model was applied in Chapter 4, focusing on the application of the physiology-based model HYDRALL to the forest ecosystem of Lavarone (IT) to evaluate the importance of additional information in the calibration procedure and their impact on model performances, model uncertainties, and parameter estimation. Overall, the Bayesian technique proved to be an excellent and versatile tool to successfully calibrate forest models of different structure and complexity, on different kind and number of variables and with a different number of parameters involved.

A new information fusion method for land-use classification using high resolution satellite imagery

Satellite image classification involves designing and developing efficient image classifiers. With satellite image data and image analysis methods multiplying rapidly, selecting the right mix of data sources and data analysis approaches has become critical to the generation of quality land-use maps. In this study, a new postprocessing information fusion algorithm for the extraction and representation of land-use information based on high-resolution satellite imagery is presented. This approach can produce land-use maps with sharp interregional boundaries and homogeneous regions. The proposed approach is conducted in five steps. First, a GIS layer - ATKIS data - was used to generate two coarse homogeneous regions, i.e. urban and rural areas. Second, a thematic (class) map was generated by use of a hybrid spectral classifier combining Gaussian Maximum Likelihood algorithm (GML) and ISODATA classifier. Third, a probabilistic relaxation algorithm was performed on the thematic map, resulting in a smoothed thematic map. Fourth, edge detection and edge thinning techniques were used to generate a contour map with pixel-width interclass boundaries. Fifth, the contour map was superimposed on the thematic map by use of a region-growing algorithm with the contour map and the smoothed thematic map as two constraints. For the operation of the proposed method, a software package is developed using programming language C. This software package comprises the GML algorithm, a probabilistic relaxation algorithm, TBL edge detector, an edge thresholding algorithm, a fast parallel thinning algorithm, and a region-growing information fusion algorithm. The county of Landau of the State Rheinland-Pfalz, Germany was selected as a test site. The high-resolution IRS-1C imagery was used as the principal input data.

A novel fusion toxin derived from an EpCAM-specific designed ankyrin repeat protein has potent antitumor activity

Designed ankyrin repeat proteins (DARPins) hold great promise as a new class of binding molecules to overcome the limitations of antibodies for biomedical applications. Here, we assessed the potential of an epithelial cell adhesion molecule (EpCAM)-specific DARPin (Ec4) for tumor targeting as a fusion toxin with Pseudomonas aeruginosa exotoxin A.

Rapid fusion and syncytium formation of heterologous cells upon expression of the FGFRL1 receptor

The fusion of mammalian cells into syncytia is a developmental process that is tightly restricted to a limited subset of cells. Besides gamete and placental trophoblast fusion, only macrophages and myogenic stem cells fuse into multinucleated syncytia. In contrast to viral cell fusion, which is mediated by fusogenic glycoproteins that actively merge membranes, mammalian cell fusion is poorly understood at the molecular level. A variety of mammalian transmembrane proteins, among them many of the immunoglobulin superfamily, have been implicated in cell-cell fusion, but none has been shown to actively fuse cells in vitro. Here we report that the FGFRL1 receptor, which is up-regulated during the differentiation of myoblasts into myotubes, fuses cultured cells into large, multinucleated syncytia. We used luciferase and GFP-based reporter assays to confirm cytoplasmic mixing and to identify the fusion inducing domain of FGFRL1. These assays revealed that Ig-like domain III and the transmembrane domain are both necessary and sufficient to rapidly fuse CHO cells into multinucleated syncytia comprising several hundred nuclei. Moreover, FGFRL1 also fused HEK293 and HeLa cells with untransfected CHO cells. Our data show that FGFRL1 is the first mammalian protein that is capable of inducing syncytium formation of heterologous cells in vitro.