948 resultados para Bayes credible intervals
Resumo:
Purpose: The aims of this study are two-fold: first, to analyze intraindividual allometric development of aerobic power of 73 boys followed at annual intervals from 8 to 16 yr, and second, to relate scaled aerobic power with level of habitual physical activity and biological maturity status. Methods: Peak (V) over dot O-2 (treadmill), height, and body mass were measured. Biological maturity was based on age at peak height velocity (PHV) and level of physical activity was based on five assessments between 11 and 15 yr and at 17 yr. Interindividual and intraindividual allometric coefficients were calculated. Multilevel modeling was applied to verify if maturity status and activity explain a significant proportion of peak (V) over dot O-2 after controlling for other explanatory characteristics. Results: At most age levels, interindividual allometry coefficients for body mass exceed k = 0.750. Intraindividual coefficients of peak (V) over dot O-2 by body mass vary widely and range from k' = 0,555 to k' = 1,178. Late maturing boys have smaller k' coefficients than early maturing boys. Conclusion: Peak (V) over dot O-2 is largely explained by body mass, but activity level and its interaction with maturity status contribute independently to peak (V) over dot O-2 even after adjusting for body mass.
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This paper reviews the current knowledge and understanding of martensitic transformations in ceramics - the tetragonal to monoclinic transformation in zirconia in particular. This martensitic transformation is the key to transformation toughening in zirconia ceramics. A very considerable body of experimental data on the characteristics of this transformation is now available. In addition, theoretical predictions can be made using the phenomenological theory of martensitic transformations. As the paper will illustrate, the phenomenological theory is capable of explaining all the reported microstructural and crystallographic features of the transformation in zirconia and in some other ceramic systems. Hence the theory, supported by experiment, can be used with considerable confidence to provide the quantitative data that is essential for developing a credible, comprehensive understanding of the transformation toughening process. A critical feature in transformation toughening is the shape strain that accompanies the transformation. This shape strain, or nucleation strain, determines whether or not the stress-induced martensitic transformation can occur at the tip of a potentially dangerous crack. If transformation does take place, then it is the net transformation strain left behind in the transformed region that provides toughening by hindering crack growth. The fracture mechanics based models for transformation toughening, therefore, depend on having a full understanding of the characteristics of the martensitic transformation and, in particular, on being able to specify both these strains. A review of the development of the models for transformation toughening shows that their refinement and improvement over the last couple of decades has been largely a result of the inclusion of more of the characteristics of the stress-induced martensitic transformation. The paper advances an improved model for the stress-induced martensitic transformation and the strains resulting from the transformation. This model, which separates the nucleation strain from the subsequent net transformation strain, is shown to be superior to any of the constitutive models currently available. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Objective: To outline the major methodological issues appropriate to the use of the population impact number (PIN) and the disease impact number (DIN) in health policy decision making. Design: Review of literature and calculation of PIN and DIN statistics in different settings. Setting: Previously proposed extensions to the number needed to treat (NNT): the DIN and the PIN, which give a population perspective to this measure. Main results: The PIN and DIN allow us to compare the population impact of different interventions either within the same disease or in different diseases or conditions. The primary studies used for relative risk estimates should have outcomes, time periods and comparison groups that are congruent and relevant to the local setting. These need to be combined with local data on disease rates and population size. Depending on the particular problem, the target may be disease incidence or prevalence and the effects of interest may be either the incremental impact or the total impact of each intervention. For practical application, it will be important to use sensitivity analyses to determine plausible intervals for the impact numbers. Conclusions: Attention to various methodological issues will permit the DIN and PIN to be used to assist health policy makers assign a population perspective to measures of risk.
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Macrophages participate in the restenosis process through the release of cytokines, metalloproteinases and growth factors. Studies of peritoneal granulation tissue suggest that macrophages may be precursors of myofibroblasts. This study examined the contribution of monocyte/macrophage lineage cells to neointimal cellular mass in a porcine model of thermal vascular injury. Thermal coronary artery injury caused medial smooth muscle cell necrosis and transformation of the media into an extracellular matrix barrier. The neointimal hyperplasia that developed over the injury sites was evaluated by light microscopy, electron microscopy and immunohistochemistry. At day 3, blood monocytes were adhered to the vessel wall and infiltrated the fibrotic media. At day 14, 42 +/- 3.9% of neointimal cells had a monocytic nuclear morphology and expressed macrophage-specific antigen SWC3 (identified by monoclonal antibody DH59B). Moreover, 9.2+/-1.8% of neointimal cells co-expressed SWC3 and alpha-smooth muscle actin and had ultrastructural characteristics intermediate between macrophages and myofibroblasts. At day 28, 10.5 +/- 3.5%, of cells expressed SWC3 and 5.2+/-1.8% of cells co-expressed SWC3 and alpha-smooth muscle actin. This study indicates that hematopoietic cells of monocyte/macrophage lineage abundantly populate the neointima in the process of lesion formation and may be precursors of neointimal myofibroblasts after thermal vascular injury. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.
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The ability of gonadotrophin releasing hormone (GnRH) agonist implants to suppress ovarian activity and prevent pregnancies, long-term, was examined in heifers and cows maintained under extensive management. At three cattle stations, heifers (2-year-old) and older cows (3- to 16-year-old) were assigned to a control group that received no treatment, or were treated with high-dose (12 mg, Station A) or low-dose (8 mg, Station B and Station Q GnRH agonist implants. The respective numbers of control and GnRH agonist-treated animals (heifers + cows) at each station were: Station A, 20 and 99; Station B, 19 and 89; Station C, 20 and 76. Animals were maintained with 4% bulls and monitored for pregnancy at 2-monthly intervals for approximately 12 months. Pregnancy rates for control heifers and control cows ranged from 60-90% and 80-100%, respectively, depending on the study site. The respective number of animals (heifers + cows) treated with GnRH agonist that conceived, and days to first conception, were: Station A, 9 (9%) and 336 3 days; Station B, 8 (10%) and 244 +/- 13 days; Station C, 20 (26%) and 231 +/- 3 days. Treatment with high-dose GnRH agonist prevented pregnancies for longer (similar to300 days) than treatment with low-dose GnRH agonist (similar to200 days). In the majority of heifers and cows treated with GnRH agonist, ovarian follicular growth was restricted to early antral follicles (2-4 mm). The findings indicate that GnRH agonist implants have considerable potential as a practical technology to suppress ovarian activity and control reproduction in female cattle maintained in extensive rangelands environments. The technology also has broader applications in diverse cattle production systems. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.
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Background: Augmentation strategies in schizophrenia treatment remain an important issue because despite the introduction of several new antipsychotics, many patients remain treatment resistant. The aim of this study was to undertake a systematic review and meta-analysis of the safety and efficacy of one frequently used adjunctive compound: carbamazepine. Data sources and study selection: Randomized controlled trials comparing carbamazopine (as a sole or as an adjunctive compound) with placebo or no intervention in participants with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder were searched for by accessing 7 electronic databases, cross-referencing publications cited in pertinent studies, and contacting drug companies that manufacture carbamazepine. Method: The identified studies were independently inspected and their quality assessed by 2 reviewers, Because the study results were generally incompletely reported, original patient data were requested from the authors; data were received for 8 of the 10 randomized controlled trials included in the present analysis, allowing for a reanalysis of the primary data. Dichotomous variables were analyzed using the Mantel-Haenszel odds ratio and continuous data were analyzed using standardized mean differences, both specified with 95% confidence intervals. Results: Ten studies (total N = 283 subjects) were included. Carbamazepine was not effective in preventing relapse in the only randomized controlled trial that compared carbamazepine monotherapy with placebo. Carbamazepine tended to be less effective than perphenazine in the only trial comparing carbamazepine with an antipsychotic. Although there was a trend indicating a benefit from carbamazepine as an adjunct to antipsychotics, this trend did not reach statistical significance. Conclusion: At present, this augmentation strategy cannot be recommended for routine use. The most promising targets for future trials are patients with excitement, aggression, and schizoaffective disorder bipolar type.
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The aim of this longitudinal study was to determine salivary levels of total IgA, IgG and IgM in 84 preterm and 214 full-term infants, from birth to 18 months of age. Unstimulated whole saliva was collected from each infant at birth, and subsequently at 3-monthly intervals. Immunoglobulin levels were estimated using an ELISA technique. At birth, IgA was detected in 147/214 (69%) full-term infants but only 47/84 (56%) preterm infants (P
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The objective of this study was to investigate how seasonally fluctuating environmental conditions influence the diving performance of the highly aquatic, bimodally respiring turtle Rheodytes leukops in a natural setting. Over four consecutive seasons (Austral autumn 2000 to summer 2001), the diving behaviour of adult turtles was recorded via pressure-sensitive time-depth recorders within Marlborough Creek, central Queensland, Australia. Short surfacing intervals recorded for R. leukops in winter suggest that the species utilizes aquatic respiration as an overwintering strategy to prevent the development of a metabolic acidosis during the long inactive dives observed during the season. As water temperature increases and aquatic P-O 2 decreases, R. leukops switches from facultative to obligate air-breathing, presumably because of the increased metabolic cost associated with aquatic respiration under summer conditions. Increases in mean surfacing time from winter to spring and summer are attributed to seasonal changes in behaviour possibly associated with foraging rather than to the physiological state of the turtle, given that no difference in median surfacing time among seasons was observed.
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The play of children with autistic spectrum disorder (ASD) is a valuable medium for assessment and intervention, and its analysis has the potential to aid diagnosis. This study investigated spontaneous play behavior and play object preferences for 24 preschool children with ASD in a typical occupational therapy clinical environment. Play behavior was rated and choice of play object noted at 10-second intervals from a 15-minute video recording of unstructured play. Statistical analyses indicated that play behavior was consistent with descriptions in the literature. In addition, the children demonstrated clear preferences for play objects in the form of popular characters (e.g., Thomas the Tank Engine) and those with sensorimotor properties. We propose that the inclusion of preferred play objects in a clinical environment may increase intrinsic motivation to play, and thereby enhance assessment and intervention.
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A supersweet sweet corn hybrid, Pacific H5, was planted at weekly intervals (P-1 to P-5) in spring in South-Eastern Queensland. All plantings were harvested at the same time resulting in immature seed for the last planting (P-5). The seed was handled by three methods: manual harvest and processing (M-1), manual harvest and mechanical processing (M-2) and mechanical harvest and processing (M-3), and later graded into three sizes (small, medium and large). After eight months storage at 12-14degreesC, seed was maintained at 30degreesC with bimonthly monitoring of germination for fourteen months and seed damage at the end of this period. Seed quality was greatest for M-1 and was reduced by mechanical processing but not by mechanical harvesting. Large and medium seed had higher germination due to greater storage reserves but also more seed damage during mechanical processing. Immature seed from premature harvest (P-5) had poor quality especially when processed mechanically and reinforced the need for harvested seed to be physiologically mature.
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Objective: To investigate possible routes for human infection by the dog hookworm (Ancylostoma caninum). Design, setting and participant. Relatively small numbers of infective larvae were administered orally and percutaneously to an informed healthy volunteer (J K L) under medical supervision, at intervals between May 1998 and May 1999. Main outcome measures: Symptoms; weekly blood eosinophil counts; faecal microscopy. Results: A marked blood eosinophilia followed a single oral exposure to 100 infective larvae, while faecal examination remained negative. Eosinophil counts then declined gradually, although a rapid, spontaneous rise several months later, at the beginning of spring, possibly indicated reactivation of dormant larvae. Blood eosinophil numbers did not rise significantly after percutaneous infection with 200 larvae. A subsequent, smaller, oral inoculum of 20 larvae provoked an eosinophil response similar to that of the first experiment. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that, following ingestion, some infective larvae of A. caninum develop directly into adult worms in the human gut (as they do in dogs). While the percutaneous route might be the most common means of human exposure to canine hookworm larvae, leading generally to subclinical infection, oral infection may be more likely to provoke symptomatic eosinophilic enteritis.
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The use of human brain tissue obtained at autopsy for neurochemical, pharmacological and physiological analyses is reviewed. RNA and protein samples have been found suitable for expression profiling by techniques that include RT-PCR, cDNA microarrays, western blotting, immunohistochemistry and proteomics. The rapid development of molecular biological techniques has increased the impetus for this work to be applied to studies of brain disease. It has been shown that most nucleic acids and proteins are reasonably stable post-mortem. However, their abundance and integrity can exhibit marked intra- and intercase variability, making comparisons between case-groups difficult. Variability can reveal important functional and biochemical information. The correct interpretation of neurochemical data must take into account such factors as age, gender, ethnicity, medicative history, immediate ante-mortem status, agonal state and post-mortem and post-autopsy intervals. Here we consider issues associated with the sampling of DNA, RNA and proteins using human autopsy brain tissue in relation to various ante- and post-mortem factors. We conclude that valid and practical measures of a variety of parameters may be made in human brain tissue, provided that specific factors are controlled.
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Background: Some melanomas form on sun-exposed body sites, whereas others do not. We previously proposed that melanomas at different body sites arise through different pathways that have different associations with melanocytic nevi and solar keratoses. We tested this hypothesis in a case-case comparative study of melanoma patients in Queensland, Australia. Methods: We randomly selected patients from among three prespecified groups reported to the population-based Queensland Cancer Registry: those with superficial spreading or nodular melanomas of the trunk (n = 154, the reference group), those with such melanomas of the head and neck (n = 77, the main comparison group), and those with lentigo maligna melanoma (LMM) (n = 75, the chronic sun-exposed group). Each participant completed a questionnaire, and a research nurse counted melanocytic nevi and solar keratoses. We calculated exposure odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) to quantify the association between factors of interest and each melanoma group. Results: Patients with head and neck melanomas, compared with patients with melanomas of the trunk, were statistically significantly less likely to have more than 60 nevi (OR = 0.34, 95% CI = 0.15 to 0.79) but were statistically significantly more likely to have more than 20 solar keratoses (OR = 3.61, 95% CI = 1.42 to 9.17) and also tended to have a past history of excised solar skin lesions (OR = 1.87, 95% CI = 0.89 to 3.92). Patients with LMM were also less likely than patients with truncal melanomas to have more than 60 nevi (OR = 0.32, 95% CI = 0.14 to 0.75) and tended toward more solar keratoses (OR = 2.14, 95% CI = 0.88 to 5.16). Conclusions: Prevalences of nevi and solar keratoses differ markedly between patients with head and neck melanomas or LMM and patients with melanomas of the trunk. Cutaneous melanomas may arise through two pathways, one associated with melanocyte proliferation and the other with chronic exposure to sunlight.
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We evaluated the ability of epitope-blocking enzyme-linked immunosorbent assays (ELISAs) to detect West Nile virus (WNV) antibodies in domestic mammals. Sera were collected from experimentally infected horses, cats, and pigs at regular intervals and screened in ELISAs and plaque reduction neutralization tests. The diagnostic efficacies of these techniques were similar.
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The role of sunscreens in preventing skin cancer and melanoma is the focus of ongoing research. Currently, there is no objective measure which can be used in field studies to determine whether a person has applied sunscreen to their skin, and researchers must use indirect assessments such as questionnaires. We sought to develop a rapid, non-invasive method for identifying sunscreen on the skin for use in epidemiological studies. Our basic method is to swab the skin, elute any residues which have been adsorbed onto the swab by rinsing in ethanol, and submit the eluted washings for spectrophotometric analysis. In a controlled study, we applied 0.1 ml of sunscreen to a 50 cm(2) grid on both forearms of 21 volunteers. Each forearm was allocated one of 10 different sunscreen brands. The skin was swabbed after intervals of 20 min, 1 h, 2 h and 4 h. In a field study conducted among 12 children aged 2-4 years attending a child care centre, sunscreen was applied to the faces of half the children. Swabs were then taken from the face and back of all children without knowledge of sunscreen status. In the controlled study, sunscreen was clearly detectable up to 2 h after application for all brands containing organic sunscreen, and marginally detectable at 4 h. In the field study, this method correctly identified all children with and without sunscreen. We conclude that spectrophotometric analysis of skin swabs can reliably detect the presence of sunscreen on the skin for up to 2 It after application. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.