A model for setting services on auxiliary bus lines under congestion

In this paper, a mathematical programming model and a heuristically derived solution is described to assist with the efficient planning of services for a set of auxiliary bus lines (a bus-bridging system) during disruptions of metro and rapid transit lines. The model can be considered static and takes into account the average flows of passengers over a given period of time (i.e., the peak morning traffic hour) Auxiliary bus services must accommodate very high demand levels, and the model presented is able to take into account the operation of a bus-bridging system under congested conditions. A general analysis of the congestion in public transportation lines is presented, and the results are applied to the design of a bus-bridging system. A nonlinear integer mathematical programming model and a suitable approximation of this model are then formulated. This approximated model can be solved by a heuristic procedure that has been shown to be computationally viable. The output of the model is as follows: (a) the number of bus units to assign to each of the candidate lines of the bus-bridging system; (b) the routes to be followed by users passengers of each of the origin–destination pairs; (c) the operational conditions of the components of the bus-bridging system, including the passenger load of each of the line segments, the degree of saturation of the bus stops relative to their bus input flows, the bus service times at bus stops and the passenger waiting times at bus stops. The model is able to take into account bounds with regard to the maximum number of passengers waiting at bus stops and the space available at bus stops for the queueing of bus units. This paper demonstrates the applicability of the model with two realistic test cases: a railway corridor in Madrid and a metro line in Barcelona Planificación de los servicios de lineas auxiliares de autobuses durante las incidencias de las redes de metro y cercanías. El modelo estudia el problema bajo condiciones de alta demanda y condiciones de congestión. El modelo no lineal resultante es resuelto mediante heurísticas que demuestran su utilidad. Se demuestran los resultados en dos corredores de las ciudades de Barcelona y Madrid.

On a two species chemotaxis model with slow chemical diffucion.

In this paper we consider a system of three parabolic equations modeling the behavior of two biological species moving attracted by a chemical factor. The chemical substance verifies a parabolic equation with slow diffusion. The system contains second order terms in the first two equations modeling the chemotactic effects. We apply an iterative method to obtain the global existence of solutions using that the total mass of the biological species is conserved. The stability of the homogeneous steady states is studied by using an energy method. A final example is presented to illustrate the theoretical results.

On a mathematical model of tumor growth based on cancer stem cells

We consider a simple mathematical model of tumor growth based on cancer stem cells. The model consists of four hyperbolic equations of first order to describe the evolution of different subpopulations of cells: cancer stem cells, progenitor cells, differentiated cells and dead cells. A fifth equation is introduced to model the evolution of the moving boundary. The system includes non-local terms of integral type in the coefficients. Under some restrictions in the parameters we show that there exists a unique homogeneous steady state which is stable.

Bayesian model selection of structural explanatory models.

In this study we are proposing a Bayesian model selection methodology, where the best model from the list of candidate structural explanatory models is selected. The model structure is based on the Zellner's (1971)explanatory model with autoregressive errors. For the selection technique we are using a parsimonious model, where the model variables are transformed using Box and Cox (1964) class of transformations.

Bayesian model selection of structural explanatory models: Application to road accident data

Using the Bayesian approach as the model selection criteria, the main purpose in this study is to establish a practical road accident model that can provide a better interpretation and prediction performance. For this purpose we are using a structural explanatory model with autoregressive error term. The model estimation is carried out through Bayesian inference and the best model is selected based on the goodness of fit measures. To cross validate the model estimation further prediction analysis were done. As the road safety measures the number of fatal accidents in Spain, during 2000-2011 were employed. The results of the variable selection process show that the factors explaining fatal road accidents are mainly exposure, economic factors, and surveillance and legislative measures. The model selection shows that the impact of economic factors on fatal accidents during the period under study has been higher compared to surveillance and legislative measures.

Type-I intermittency with discontinuous reinjection probability density in a truncation model of the derivative nonlinear Schrödinger equation

In previous papers, the type-I intermittent phenomenon with continuous reinjection probability density (RPD) has been extensively studied. However, in this paper type-I intermittency considering discontinuous RPD function in one-dimensional maps is analyzed. To carry out the present study the analytic approximation presented by del Río and Elaskar (Int. J. Bifurc. Chaos 20:1185-1191, 2010) and Elaskar et al. (Physica A. 390:2759-2768, 2011) is extended to consider discontinuous RPD functions. The results of this analysis show that the characteristic relation only depends on the position of the lower bound of reinjection (LBR), therefore for the LBR below the tangent point the relation {Mathematical expression}, where {Mathematical expression} is the control parameter, remains robust regardless the form of the RPD, although the average of the laminar phases {Mathematical expression} can change. Finally, the study of discontinuous RPD for type-I intermittency which occurs in a three-wave truncation model for the derivative nonlinear Schrodinger equation is presented. In all tests the theoretical results properly verify the numerical data

Application of a SPH depth-integrated model to landslide run-out analysis

Hazard and risk assessment of landslides with potentially long run-out is becoming more and more important. Numerical tools exploiting different constitutive models, initial data and numerical solution techniques are important for making the expert’s assessment more objective, even though they cannot substitute for the expert’s understanding of the site-specific conditions and the involved processes. This paper presents a depth-integrated model accounting for pore water pressure dissipation and applications both to real events and problems for which analytical solutions exist. The main ingredients are: (i) The mathematical model, which includes pore pressure dissipation as an additional equation. This makes possible to model flowslide problems with a high mobility at the beginning, the landslide mass coming to rest once pore water pressures dissipate. (ii) The rheological models describing basal friction: Bingham, frictional, Voellmy and cohesive-frictional viscous models. (iii) We have implemented simple erosion laws, providing a comparison between the approaches of Egashira, Hungr and Blanc. (iv) We propose a Lagrangian SPH model to discretize the equations, including pore water pressure information associated to the moving SPH nodes

Nonlinear analysis of a simple model of temperature evolution in a satellite

We analyze a simple model of the heat transfer to and from a small satellite orbiting round a solar system planet. Our approach considers the satellite isothermal, with external heat input from the environment and from internal energy dissipation, and output to the environment as black-body radiation. The resulting nonlinear ordinary differential equation for the satellite’s temperature is analyzed by qualitative, perturbation and numerical methods, which prove that the temperature approaches a periodic pattern (attracting limit cycle). This approach can occur in two ways, according to the values of the parameters: (i) a slow decay towards the limit cycle over a time longer than the period, or (ii) a fast decay towards the limit cycle over a time shorter than the period. In the first case, an exactly soluble average equation is valid. We discuss the consequences of our model for the thermal stability of satellites.

Bridge damage identification from moving load induced deflection based on wavelet transform and Lipschitz exponent

The wavelet transform and Lipschitz exponent perform well in detecting signal singularity.With the bridge crack damage modeled as rotational springs based on fracture mechanics, the deflection time history of the beam under the moving load is determined with a numerical method. The continuous wavelet transformation (CWT) is applied to the deflection of the beam to identify the location of the damage, and the Lipschitz exponent is used to evaluate the damage degree. The influence of different damage degrees,multiple damage, different sensor locations, load velocity and load magnitude are studied.Besides, the feasibility of this method is verified by a model experiment.

Temperature and precipitation effects on wheat yield across a European transect: a crop model ensemble analysis using impact response surfaces

This study explored the utility of the impact response surface (IRS) approach for investigating model ensemble crop yield responses under a large range of changes in climate. IRSs of spring and winter wheat Triticum aestivum yields were constructed from a 26-member ensemble of process-based crop simulation models for sites in Finland, Germany and Spain across a latitudinal transect. The sensitivity of modelled yield to systematic increments of changes in temperature (-2 to +9°C) and precipitation (-50 to +50%) was tested by modifying values of baseline (1981 to 2010) daily weather, with CO2 concentration fixed at 360 ppm. The IRS approach offers an effective method of portraying model behaviour under changing climate as well as advantages for analysing, comparing and presenting results from multi-model ensemble simulations. Though individual model behaviour occasionally departed markedly from the average, ensemble median responses across sites and crop varieties indicated that yields decline with higher temperatures and decreased precipitation and increase with higher precipitation. Across the uncertainty ranges defined for the IRSs, yields were more sensitive to temperature than precipitation changes at the Finnish site while sensitivities were mixed at the German and Spanish sites. Precipitation effects diminished under higher temperature changes. While the bivariate and multi-model characteristics of the analysis impose some limits to interpretation, the IRS approach nonetheless provides additional insights into sensitivities to inter-model and inter-annual variability. Taken together, these sensitivities may help to pinpoint processes such as heat stress, vernalisation or drought effects requiring refinement in future model development.

A modified gambler's ruin model of polyethylene chains in the amorphous region.

Polyethylene chains in the amorphous region between two crystalline lamellae M unit apart are modeled as random walks with one-step memory on a cubic lattice between two absorbing boundaries. These walks avoid the two preceding steps, though they are not true self-avoiding walks. Systems of difference equations are introduced to calculate the statistics of the restricted random walks. They yield that the fraction of loops is (2M - 2)/(2M + 1), the fraction of ties 3/(2M + 1), the average length of loops 2M - 0.5, the average length of ties 2/3M2 + 2/3M - 4/3, the average length of walks equals 3M - 3, the variance of the loop length 16/15M3 + O(M2), the variance of the tie length 28/45M4 + O(M3), and the variance of the walk length 2M3 + O(M2).

Zinc- and iron-rubredoxins from Clostridium pasteurianum at atomic resolution: a high-precision model of a ZnS4 coordination unit in a protein.

The Zn(Scys)4 unit is present in numerous proteins, where it assumes structural, regulatory, or catalytic roles. The same coordination is found naturally around iron in rubredoxins, several structures of which have been refined at resolutions of, or near to, 1 A. The fold of the small protein rubredoxin around its metal ion is an excellent model for many zinc finger proteins. Zn-substituted rubredoxin and its Fe-containing counterpart were both obtained as the products of the expression in Escherichia coli of the rubredoxin-encoding gene from Clostridium pasteurianum. The structures of both proteins have been refined with an anisotropic model at atomic resolution (1.1 A, R = 8.3% for Fe-rubredoxin, and 1.2 A, R = 9.6% for Zn-rubredoxin) and are very similar. The most significant differences are increased lengths of the M-S bonds in Zn-rubredoxin (average length, 2.345 A) as compared with Fe-rubredoxin (average length, 2.262 A). An increase of the CA-CB-SG-M dihedral angles involving Cys-6 and Cys-39, the first cysteines of each of the Cys-Xaa-Xaa-Cys metal binding motifs, has been observed. Another consequence of the replacement of iron by zinc is that the region around residues 36-46 undergoes larger displacements than the remainder of the polypeptide chain. Despite these changes, the main features of the FeS4 site, namely a local 2-fold symmetry and the characteristic network of N-H...S hydrogen bonds, are conserved in the ZnS4 site. The Zn-substituted rubredoxin provides the first precise structure of a Zn(Scys)4 unit in a protein. The nearly identical fold of rubredoxin around iron or zinc suggests that at least in some of the sites where the metal has mainly a structural role-e.g., zinc fingers-the choice of the relevant metal may be directed by its cellular availability and mobilization processes rather than by its chemical nature.

Subunit-destabilizing mutations in Drosophila copper/zinc superoxide dismutase: neuropathology and a model of dimer dysequilibrium.

Mutations in Cu/Zn superoxide dismutase (SOD), a hallmark of familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (FALS) in humans, are shown here to confer striking neuropathology in Drosophila. Heterozygotes with one wild-type and one deleted SOD allele retain the expected 50% of normal activity for this dimeric enzyme. However, heterozygotes with one wild-type and one missense SOD allele show lesser SOD activities, ranging from 37% for a heterozygote carrying a missense mutation predicted from structural models to destabilize the dimer interface, to an average of 13% for several heterozygotes carrying missense mutations predicted to destabilize the subunit fold. Genetic and biochemical evidence suggests a model of dimer dysequilibrium whereby SOD activity in missense heterozygotes is reduced through entrapment of wild-type subunits into unstable or enzymatically inactive heterodimers. This dramatic impairment of the activity of wild-type subunits in vivo has implications for our understanding of FALS and for possible therapeutic strategies.

Discovery of "isolated" co-moving T Tauri stars in Cepheus

Context. During the course of a large spectroscopic survey of X-ray active late-type stars in the solar neighbourhood, we discovered four lithium-rich stars packed within just a few degrees on the sky. Although located in a sky area rich in CO molecular regions and dark clouds, the Cepheus-Cassiopeia complex, these very young stars are projected several degrees away from clouds in front of an area void of interstellar matter. As such, they are very good "isolated" T Tauri star candidates. Aims. We present optical observations of these stars conducted with 1-2 m class telescopes. We acquired high-resolution optical spectra as well as photometric data allowing us to investigate in detail their nature and physical parameters with the aim of testing the "runaway" and "in-situ" formation scenarios. Their kinematical properties are also analyzed to investigate their possible connection to already known stellar kinematic groups. Methods. We use the cross-correlation technique and other tools developed by us to derive accurate radial and rotational velocities and perform an automatic spectral classification. The spectral subtraction technique is used to infer chromospheric activity level in the Hα line core and clean the spectra of photospheric lines before measuring the equivalent width of the lithium absorption line. Results. Both physical (lithium content, chromospheric, and coronal activities) and kinematical indicators show that all stars are very young, with ages probably in the range 10-30 Myr. In particular, the spectral energy distribution of TYC4496-780-1 displays a strong near-and far-infrared excess, typical of T Tauri stars still surrounded by an accretion disc. They also share the same Galactic motion, proving that they form a homogeneous moving group of stars with the same origin. Conclusions. The most plausible explanation of how these "isolated" T Tauri stars formed is the "in-situ" model, although accurate distances are needed to clarify their connection with the Cepheus-Cassiopeia complex. The discovery of this loose association of "isolated" T Tauri stars can help to shed light on atypical formation processes of stars and planets in low-mass clouds.

Climate simulation for 125 kyr BP with a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model

The ECHAM-1 T21/LSG coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (GCM) is used to simulate climatic conditions at the last interglacial maximum (Eemian. 125 kyr BP). The results reflect thc expected surface temperature changes (with respect to the control run) due to the amplification (reduction) of the seasonal cycle of insolation in the Northern (Southern) Hemisphere. A number of simulated features agree with previous results from atmospheric GCM simulations e.g. intensified summer southwest monsoons) except in the Northern Hemisphere poleward of 30 degrees N. where dynamical feedback, in the North Atlantic and North Pacific increase zonal temperatures about 1 degrees C above what would be predicted from simple energy balance considerations. As this is the same area where most of the terrestrial geological data originate, this result suggests that previous estimates of Eemian global average temperature might have been biased by sample distribution. This conclusion is supported by the fact that the estimated global temperature increase of only 0.3 degrees C greater than the control run ha, been previously shown to be consistent a with CLIMAP sea surface temperature estimates. Although the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon is intensified. globally averaged precipitation over land is within about 1% of the present, contravening some geological inferences bur not the deep-sea delta(13)C estimates of terrestrial carbon storage changes. Winter circulation changes in the northern Arabian Sea. driven by strong cooling on land, are as large as summer circulation changes that are the usual focus of interest, suggesting that interpreting variations in the Arabian Sea. sedimentary record solely in terms of the summer monsoon response could sometimes lead to errors. A small monsoonal response over northern South America suggests that interglacial paleotrends in this region were not just due to El Nino variations.