Warren Pershing, petit fils [i.e. fils] du général Pershing à la fête de la Victoire à Londres [19 juillet 1919] : [photographie de presse] / [Agence Rol]

Référence bibliographique : Rol, 55101

Time consumption and damage to the remaining stock in mechanised and motor manual pre-commercial thinning

Abstract

Probabilistic evidential assessment of gunshot residue particle evidence (Part I): likelihood ratio calculation and case pre-assessment using Bayesian networks

Well developed experimental procedures currently exist for retrieving and analyzing particle evidence from hands of individuals suspected of being associated with the discharge of a firearm. Although analytical approaches (e.g. automated Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive X-ray (SEM-EDS) microanalysis) allow the determination of the presence of elements typically found in gunshot residue (GSR) particles, such analyses provide no information about a given particle's actual source. Possible origins for which scientists may need to account for are a primary exposure to the discharge of a firearm or a secondary transfer due to a contaminated environment. In order to approach such sources of uncertainty in the context of evidential assessment, this paper studies the construction and practical implementation of graphical probability models (i.e. Bayesian networks). These can assist forensic scientists in making the issue tractable within a probabilistic perspective. The proposed models focus on likelihood ratio calculations at various levels of detail as well as case pre-assessment.