State of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Climate System

This paper reviews developments in our understanding of the state of the Antarctic and Southern Ocean climate and its relation to the global climate system over the last few millennia. Climate over this and earlier periods has not been stable, as evidenced by the occurrence of abrupt changes in atmospheric circulation and temperature recorded in Antarctic ice core proxies for past climate. Two of the most prominent abrupt climate change events are characterized by intensification of the circumpolar westerlies (also known as the Southern Annular Mode) between similar to 6000 and 5000 years ago and since 1200-1000 years ago. Following the last of these is a period of major trans-Antarctic reorganization of atmospheric circulation and temperature between A. D. 1700 and 1850. The two earlier Antarctic abrupt climate change events appear linked to but predate by several centuries even more abrupt climate change in the North Atlantic, and the end of the more recent event is coincident with reorganization of atmospheric circulation in the North Pacific. Improved understanding of such events and of the associations between abrupt climate change events recorded in both hemispheres is critical to predicting the impact and timing of future abrupt climate change events potentially forced by anthropogenic changes in greenhouse gases and aerosols. Special attention is given to the climate of the past 200 years, which was recorded by a network of recently available shallow firn cores, and to that of the past 50 years, which was monitored by the continuous instrumental record. Significant regional climate changes have taken place in the Antarctic during the past 50 years. Atmospheric temperatures have increased markedly over the Antarctic Peninsula, linked to nearby ocean warming and intensification of the circumpolar westerlies. Glaciers are retreating on the peninsula, in Patagonia, on the sub-Antarctic islands, and in West Antarctica adjacent to the peninsula. The penetration of marine air masses has become more pronounced over parts of West Antarctica. Above the surface, the Antarctic troposphere has warmed during winter while the stratosphere has cooled year-round. The upper kilometer of the circumpolar Southern Ocean has warmed, Antarctic Bottom Water across a wide sector off East Antarctica has freshened, and the densest bottom water in the Weddell Sea has warmed. In contrast to these regional climate changes, over most of Antarctica, near-surface temperature and snowfall have not increased significantly during at least the past 50 years, and proxy data suggest that the atmospheric circulation over the interior has remained in a similar state for at least the past 200 years. Furthermore, the total sea ice cover around Antarctica has exhibited no significant overall change since reliable satellite monitoring began in the late 1970s, despite large but compensating regional changes. The inhomogeneity of Antarctic climate in space and time implies that recent Antarctic climate changes are due on the one hand to a combination of strong multidecadal variability and anthropogenic effects and, as demonstrated by the paleoclimate record, on the other hand to multidecadal to millennial scale and longer natural variability forced through changes in orbital insolation, greenhouse gases, solar variability, ice dynamics, and aerosols. Model projections suggest that over the 21st century the Antarctic interior will warm by 3.4 degrees +/- 1 degrees C, and sea ice extent will decrease by similar to 30%. Ice sheet models are not yet adequate enough to answer pressing questins about the effect of projected warming on mass balance and sea level. Considering the potentially major impacts of a warming climate on Antarctica, vigorous efforts are needed to better understand all aspects of the highly coupled Antarctic climate system as well as its influence on the Earth's climate and oceans.

Pliocene Paleoenvironment and Antarctic Ice Sheet Behavior: Evidence from Wright Valley

Investigations in Wright Valley, adjacent to the Transantarctic Mountains in East Antarctica, shed light on the question of whether high-latitude Pliocene climate was warm enough to cause widespread deglaciation of the East Antarctic craton with a concurrent Magellanic moorland-like environment. If Pliocene age diatoms, presently in glaciogenic deposits high in the Transantarctic Mountains, had come from seaways on the East Antarctic craton, an expanding Late Pliocene ice sheet must have first eroded them from marine sediments and then deposited the diatoms at their present high-altitude locations. This hypothetical expanding glacier would have had to have come through Wright Valley. Glacial drift sediments from the central Wright Valley were mapped, sampled, analyzed, and Ar-40/Ar-39 whole rock dated. Our evidence indicates that an East Antarctic outlet glacier has not expanded through Wright Valley, and hence cannot have overridden the Dry Valleys sector of the Transantarctic Mountains, any time in the past 3.8 myr. Rather, there was only moderate Pliocene expansion of local cola-based alpine glaciers and continuous cold-desert conditions in Wright Valley. Persistence of a cold-desert paleoenvironment implies that the sector of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet adjacent to Wright Valley has remained relatively stable without melting ablation zones since at least 3.8 Ma, in Early Pliocene time. A further implication is that Antarctic Ice Sheet behavior in the Pliocene was much like that in the Quaternary, when the ice sheet consisted of a stable, terrestrial core in East Antarctica and a dynamic, marine-based appendage in West Antarctica.

Antarctic Glacial History Since the Last Glacial Maximum: An Overview of the Record on Land

This overview examines available circum-Antarctic glacial history archives on land, related to developments after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). It considers the glacial-stratigraphic and morphologic records and also biostratigraphical information from moss banks, lake sediments and penguin rookeries, with some reference to relevant glacial marine records. It is concluded that Holocene environmental development in Antarctica differed from that in the Northern Hemisphere. The initial deglaciation of the shelf areas surrounding Antarctica took place before 10000 C-14 yrs before present(sp), and was controlled by rising global sea level. This was followed by the deglaciation of some presently ice-free inner shelf and land areas between 10000 and 8000 yr sp. Continued deglaciation occurred gradually between 8000 yr sp and 5000 yr sp. Mid-Holocene glacial readvances are recorded from various sites around Antarctica. There are strong indications of a circum-Antarctic climate warmer than today 4700-2000 yr sp. The best dated records from the Antarctic Peninsula and coastal Victoria Land suggest climatic optimums there from 4000-3000 yr sp and 3600-2600 yr sp, respectively. Thereafter Neoglacial readvances are recorded. Relatively limited glacial expansions in Antarctica during the past few hundred years correlate with the Little Ice Age in the Northern Hemisphere.

Sulfur Isotopic Measurements from a West Antarctic Ice Core: Implications for Sulfate Source and Transport

Measurements of delta(34)S covering the years 1935-76 and including the 1963 Agung (Indonesia) eruption were made on a West Antarctic firn core, RIDSA (78.73 degrees S, 116.33 degrees W; 1740m a.s.l.), and results are used to unravel potential source functions in the sulfur cycle over West Antarctica. The delta(34)S values Of SO42- range from 3.1 parts per thousand to 9.9 parts per thousand. These values are lower than those reported for central Antarctica, from near South Pole station, of 9.3-18.1 parts per thousand (Patris and others, 2000). While the Agung period is isotopically distinct at South Pole, it is not in the RIDSA dataset, suggesting differences in the source associations for the sulfur cycle between these two regions. Given the relatively large input of marine aerosols at RIDSA (determined from Na+ data and the seasonal SO42- cycle), there is likely a large marine biogenic SO42- influence. The delta(34)S values indicate, however, that this marine biogenic SO42-, with a well-established delta(34)S of 18 parts per thousand, is mixing with SO42- that has extremely negative delta(34)S values to produce the measured isotope values in the RIDSA core. We suggest that the transport and deposition of stratospheric SO42- in West Antarctica, combined with local volcanic input, accounts for the observed variance in delta(34)S values.

Ice Elevation Near the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide During the Last Glaciation

Interior ice elevations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) during the last glaciation, which can serve as benchmarks for ice-sheet models, are largely unconstrained. Here we report past ice elevation data from the Ohio Range, located near the WAIS divide and the onset region of the Mercer Ice Stream. Cosmogenic exposure ages of glacial erratics that record a WAIS highstand similar to 125 m above the present surface date to similar to 11.5 ka. The deglacial chronology prohibits an interior WAIS contribution to meltwater pulse 1A. Our observational data of ice elevation changes compare well with predictions of a thermomechanical ice-sheet model that incorporates very low basal shear stress downstream of the present day grounding line. We conclude that ice streams in the Ross Sea Embayment had thin, low-slope profiles during the last glaciation and interior WAIS ice elevations during this period were several hundred meters lower than previous reconstructions.

Antarctic Climate Change and the Environment

The Antarctic climate system varies on timescales from orbital, through millennial to sub-annual, and is closely coupled to other parts of the global climate system. We review these variations from the perspective of the geological and glaciological records and the recent historical period from which we have instrumental data (similar to the last 50 years). We consider their consequences for the biosphere, and show how the latest numerical models project changes into the future, taking into account human actions in the form of the release of greenhouse gases and chlorofluorocarbons into the atmosphere. In doing so, we provide an essential Southern Hemisphere companion to the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment.

Solar Forcing Recorded by Aerosol Concentrations in Coastal Antarctic Glacier Ice, McMurdo Dry Valleys

Ice-core chemistry data from Victoria Lower Glacier, Antarctica, suggest, at least for the last 50 years, a direct influence of solar activity variations on the McMurdo Dry Valleys (MDV) climate system via controls on air-mass input from two competing environments: the East Antarctic ice sheet and the Ross Sea. During periods of increased solar activity, when total solar irradiance is relatively high, the MDV climate system appears to be dominated by air masses originating from the Ross Sea, leading to higher aerosol deposition. During reduced solar activity, the Antarctic interior seems to be the dominant air-mass source, leading to lower aerosol concentration in the ice-core record. We propose that the sensitivity of the MDV to variations in solar irradiance is caused by strong albedo differences between the ice-free MDV and the ice sheet.

Glacial Lake Wright, a High-Level Antarctic Lake During the LGM and Early Holocene

We report evidence of a large proglacial lake (Glacial Lake Wright) that existed in Wright Valley in the McMurdo Dry Valleys region of Antarctica at the last glacial maximum (LGM) and in the early Holocene. At its highstands, Glacial Lake Wright would have stretched 50 km and covered c. 210 km(2). Chronology for lake-level changes comes from 30 AMS radiocarbon dates of lacustrine algae preserved in deltas, shorelines, and glaciolacustrine deposits that extend up to 480 m above present-day lakes. Emerging evidence suggests that Glacial Lake Wright was only one of a series of large lakes to occupy the McMurdo Dry Valleys and the valleys fronting the Royal Society Range at the LGM. Although the cause of such high lake levels is not well understood, it is believed to relate to cool, dry conditions which produced fewer clouds, less snowfall, and greater amounts of absorbed radiation, leading to increased meltwater production.

Calculating Basal Thermal Zones Beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet

A procedure is presented for using a simple flowline model to calculate the fraction of the bed that is thawed beneath present-day ice sheets, and therefore for mapping thawed, frozen, melting and freezing basal thermal zones. The procedure is based on the proposition, easily demonstrated, that variations in surface slope along ice flowlines are due primarily to variations in bed topography and ice-bed coupling, where ice-bed coupling for sheet flow is represented by the basal thawed fraction. This procedure is then applied to the central flowlines of flow bands on the Antarctic ice sheet where accumulation rates, surface elevations and bed topography are mapped with sufficient accuracy, and where sheet flow rather than stream flow prevails. In East Antarctica, the usual condition is a low thawed fraction in subglacial highlands, but a high thawed fraction in subglacial basins and where ice converges on ice streams. This is consistent with a greater depression of the basal melting temperature and a slower rate of conducting basal heat to the surface where ice is thick, and greater basal frictional heat production where ice flow is fast, as expected for steady-state flow. This correlation is reduced or even reversed where steady-state flow has been disrupted recently, notably where ice-stream surges produced the Dibble and Dalton Iceberg Tongues, both of which are now stagnating. In West Antarctica, for ice draining into the Pine Island Bay polynya of the Amundsen Sea, the basal thawed fraction is consistent with a prolonged and ongoing surge of Pine Island Glacier and with a recently initiated surge of Thwaites Glacier. For ice draining into the Ross Ice Shelf, long ice streams extend nearly to the West Antarctic ice divide. Over the rugged bed topography near the ice divide, no correlation consistent with steady-state sheet flow exists between ice thickness and the basal thawed fraction. The bed is wholly thawed beneath ice streams, even where stream flow is slow. This is consistent with ongoing gravitational collapse of ice entering the Ross Sea embayment and with unstable flow in the ice streams.

Antarctic Temperatures Over the Past Two Centuries from Ice Cores

We present a reconstruction of Antarctic mean surface temperatures over the past two centuries based on water stable isotope records from high-resolution, precisely dated ice cores. Both instrumental and reconstructed temperatures indicate large interannual to decadal scale variability, with the dominant pattern being anti-phase anomalies between the main Antarctic continent and the Antarctic Peninsula region. Comparative analysis of the instrumental Southern Hemisphere (SH) mean temperature record and the reconstruction suggests that at longer timescales, temperatures over the Antarctic continent vary in phase with the SH mean. Our reconstruction suggests that Antarctic temperatures have increased by about 0.2 degrees C since the late nineteenth century. The variability and the long-term trends are strongly modulated by the SH Annular Mode in the atmospheric circulation.

Circum-Antarctic Coastal Environmental Shifts During the Late Quaternary Reflected by Emerged Marine Deposits

This review assesses the circumpolar occurrence of emerged marine macrofossils and sediments from Antarctic coastal areas in relation to Late Quaternary climate changes. Radiocarbon ages of the macrofossils, which are interpreted in view of the complexities of the Antarctic marine radiocarbon reservoir and resolution of this dating technique, show a bimodal distribution. The data indicate that marine species inhabited coastal environments from at least 35000 to 20000 yr sp, during Marine Isotope Stage 3 when extensive iceberg calving created a 'meltwater lid' over the Southern Ocean. The general absence of these marine species from 20000 to 8500 yr sp coincides with the subsequent advance of the Antarctic ice sheets during the Last Glacial Maximum. Synchronous re-appearance of the Antarctic marine fossils in emerged beaches around the continent, all of wh ich have Holocene marine-limit elevations an order of magnitude lower than those in the Arctic, reflect minimal isostatic rebound as relative sea-level rise decelerated. Antarctic coastal marine habitat changes around the continent also coincided with increasing sea-ice extent and outlet glacial advances during the mid-Holocene. in view of the diverse environmental changes that occurred around the Earth during this period, it is suggested that Antarctic coastal areas were responding to a mid-Holocene climatic shift associated with the hydrological cycle. This synthesis of Late Quaternary emerged marine deposits demonstrates the application of evaluating circum-Antarctic phenomena from the glacial-terrestrial-marine transition zone.

The Effects of Joint ENSO-Antarctic Oscillation Forcing on the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica

Stable oxygen analyses and snow accumulation rates from snow pits sampled in the McMurdo Dry Valleys have been used to reconstruct variations in summer temperature and moisture availability over the last four decades. The temperature data show a common interannual variability, with strong regional warmings occurring especially in 1984/85, 1995/96 and 1990/91 and profound coolings during 1977/78, 1983/84, 1988/89, 1993/94, and 1996/97. Annual snow accumulation shows a larger variance between sites, but the early 1970s, 1984, 1997, and to a lesser degree 1990/91 are characterized overall by wetter conditions, while the early and late 1980s show low snow accumulation values. Comparison of the reconstructed and measured summer temperatures with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) yield statistically significant correlations, which improve when phaserelationships are considered. A distinct change in the phase relationship of the correlation is observed, with the SOI-AAO leading over the temperature records by one year before, and lagging by one year after 1988. These results suggest that over the last two decades summer temperatures are influenced by opposing El Niho Southern Oscillation and AAO forcings and support previous studies that identified a change in the Tropical-Antarctic teleconnection between the 1980s and 1990s.