Unemployment insurance an analysis of optimal mechanisms under aggregate shocks

The purpose of this work is to provide a brief overview of the literature on the optimal design of unemployment insurance systems by analyzing some of the most influential articles published over the last three decades on the subject and extend the main results to a multiple aggregate shocks environment. The properties of optimal contracts are discussed in light of the key assumptions commonly made in theoretical publications on the area. Moreover, the implications of relaxing each of these hypothesis is reckoned as well. The analysis of models of only one unemployment spell starts from the seminal work of Shavell and Weiss (1979). In a simple and common setting, unemployment benefits policies, wage taxes and search effort assignments are covered. Further, the idea that the UI distortion of the relative price of leisure and consumption is the only explanation for the marginal incentives to search for a job is discussed, putting into question the reduction in labor supply caused by social insurance, usually interpreted as solely an evidence of a dynamic moral hazard caused by a substitution effect. In addition, the paper presents one characterization of optimal unemployment insurance contracts in environments in which workers experience multiple unemployment spells. Finally, an extension to multiple aggregate shocks environment is considered. The paper ends with a numerical analysis of the implications of i.i.d. shocks to the optimal unemployment insurance mechanism.

Crisis communication: organization's reactions to unexpected events

A reputação é considerada o ativo mais importante das empresas. Ela permite o estabelecimento de relações comerciais e garante um bom funcionamento da organização. Quando um evento inesperado surge, a reputação pode ser ameaçada. Os gerentes, líderes da organização, têm então que demonstrar reatividade e capacidade em responder as necessidades dos stakeholders, e capacidade de detectar e consertar as falhas dentro da organização através de um processo de aprendizagem, para evitar conseqüências negativas que poderiam danificar a reputação e impactar o desenvolvimento operacional da empresa. Através da comunicação de crise, observamos que depois da queda do avião AF 447, a companhia Air France adotou diferentes posturas adaptadas ao pedido dos stakeholders e ao grau de ameaça sofrido. Logo depois do acidente, a empresa decidiu adotar a estratégia do reconhecimento, assumindo uma responsabilidade simbólica e comunicando prioritariamente para as famílias das vitimas e para a mídia. Nas seguintes semanas ela utilizou a estratégia do silêncio que consiste em não comunicar diretamente a mídia. Finalmente, ela usou a estratégia do “bode expiatório” quando ela foi sujeita a ataques diretos. As reações da empresa somadas ao avanço das investigações judiciais revelaram falhas organizacionais “históricas” dentro da própria empresa, como por exemplo, a falta de comunicação entre pilotos e gerentes ou uma falha de sensibilidade técnica e operacional da parte dos gerentes. Apesar de problemas interno e externo, a Air France demonstrou que uma comunicação de crise bem gerenciada limita os impactos financeiros e de reputação. As conseqüências negativas sofridas pela companhia Air France foram limitadas.

Aggregate uncertainty, disappointment aversion and the business cycle

We investigate the eff ect of aggregate uncertainty shocks on real variables. More speci fically, we introduce a shock in the volatility of productivity in an RBC model with long-run volatility risk and preferences that exhibit generalised disappointment aversion. We find that, when combined with a negative productivity shock, a volatility shock leads to further decline in real variables, such as output, consumption, hours worked and investment. For instance, out of the 2% decrease in output as a result of both shocks, we attribute 0.25% to the e ffect of an increase in volatility. We also fi nd that this e ffect is the same as the one obtained in a model with Epstein-Zin- Weil preferences, but higher than that of a model with expected utility. Moreover, GDA preferences yield superior asset pricing results, when compared to both Epstein-Zin-Weil preferences and expected utility.

The long-run properties of a dynamic Mirrlees' model with aggregate shocks

Nós abordamos a existência de distribuições estacionárias de promessas de utilidade em um modelo Mirrlees dinâmico quando o governo tem record keeping imperfeito e a economia é sujeita a choques agregados. Quando esses choques são iid, provamos a existência de um estado estacionário não degenerado e caracterizamos parcialmente as alocações estacionárias. Mostramos que a proporção do consumo agregado é invariante ao estado agregado. Quando os choques agregados apresentam persistência, porém, alocações eficientes apresentam dependência da história de choques e, em geral, uma distribuição invariante não existe.

Forecasting Brazilian inflation by its aggregate and disaggregated data: a test of predictive power by forecast horizon

This work aims to compare the forecast efficiency of different types of methodologies applied to Brazilian Consumer inflation (IPCA). We will compare forecasting models using disaggregated and aggregated data over twelve months ahead. The disaggregated models were estimated by SARIMA and will have different levels of disaggregation. Aggregated models will be estimated by time series techniques such as SARIMA, state-space structural models and Markov-switching. The forecasting accuracy comparison will be made by the selection model procedure known as Model Confidence Set and by Diebold-Mariano procedure. We were able to find evidence of forecast accuracy gains in models using more disaggregated data

Testing consumption optimality using aggregate data

The objective of this paper is to test for optimality of consumption decisions at the aggregate level (representative consumer) taking into account popular deviations from the canonical CRRA utility model rule of thumb and habit. First, we show that rule-of-thumb behavior in consumption is observational equivalent to behavior obtained by the optimizing model of King, Plosser and Rebelo (Journal of Monetary Economics, 1988), casting doubt on how reliable standard rule-of-thumb tests are. Second, although Carroll (2001) and Weber (2002) have criticized the linearization and testing of euler equations for consumption, we provide a deeper critique directly applicable to current rule-of-thumb tests. Third, we show that there is no reason why return aggregation cannot be performed in the nonlinear setting of the Asset-Pricing Equation, since the latter is a linear function of individual returns. Fourth, aggregation of the nonlinear euler equation forms the basis of a novel test of deviations from the canonical CRRA model of consumption in the presence of rule-of-thumb and habit behavior. We estimated 48 euler equations using GMM, with encouraging results vis-a-vis the optimality of consumption decisions. At the 5% level, we only rejected optimality twice out of 48 times. Empirical-test results show that we can still rely on the canonical CRRA model so prevalent in macroeconomics: out of 24 regressions, we found the rule-of-thumb parameter to be statistically signi cant at the 5% level only twice, and the habit ƴ parameter to be statistically signi cant on four occasions. The main message of this paper is that proper return aggregation is critical to study intertemporal substitution in a representative-agent framework. In this case, we fi nd little evidence of lack of optimality in consumption decisions, and deviations of the CRRA utility model along the lines of rule-of-thumb behavior and habit in preferences represent the exception, not the rule.

Collateral, Intermediated Lending, and Aggregate Productivity

Neste trabalho busca-se compreender como que restrições a diferentes tipos de crédito - doméstico e internacional - afetam a dinâmica de uma economia, especialmente com relação a sua Produtividade Total dos Fatores (PTF). Para ajudar no entendimento dessa questão e assuntos relacionados, propomos um simples modelo de economia aberta. Nesse contexto, empreendedores domésticos possuem produtividades heterogêneas, o que implica que a distribuição de riqueza entre indivíduos é essencial para a determinação da produtividade agregada da economia. Além disso, o ambiente de comprometimento limitado obriga os tomadores de empréstimo a dispor de colateral para contrair dívidas. Por hipótese, dívida doméstica e externa requerem diferentes quantidades de colateral. O modelo gera uma dinâmica macroeconômica rica após mudanças na taxa de juros internacional e restrições a crédito. Mais especificamente, um alívio na restrição doméstica causa um aumento da PTF, enquanto a mesma variação na restrição internacional tem o efeito contrário.

Testing consumption optimality using aggregate data

This paper tests the optimality of consumption decisions at the aggregate level taking into account popular deviations from the canonical constant-relative-risk-aversion (CRRA) utility function model-rule of thumb and habit. First, based on the critique in Carroll (2001) and Weber (2002) of the linearization and testing strategies using euler equations for consumption, we provide extensive empirical evidence of their inappropriateness - a drawback for standard rule- of-thumb tests. Second, we propose a novel approach to test for consumption optimality in this context: nonlinear estimation coupled with return aggregation, where rule-of-thumb behavior and habit are special cases of an all encompassing model. We estimated 48 euler equations using GMM. At the 5% level, we only rejected optimality twice out of 48 times. Moreover, out of 24 regressions, we found the rule-of-thumb parameter to be statistically significant only twice. Hence, lack of optimality in consumption decisions represent the exception, not the rule. Finally, we found the habit parameter to be statistically significant on four occasions out of 24.

Aggregate vs disaggregate data analysis: a paradox in the estimation of money demand function of Japan under the low interest rate policy

We investigate the issue of whether there was a stable money demand function for Japan in 1990's using both aggregate and disaggregate time series data. The aggregate data appears to support the contention that there was no stable money demand function. The disaggregate data shows that there was a stable money demand function. Neither was there any indication of the presence of liquidity trapo Possible sources of discrepancy are explored and the diametrically opposite results between the aggregate and disaggregate analysis are attributed to the neglected heterogeneity among micro units. We also conduct simulation analysis to show that when heterogeneity among micro units is present. The prediction of aggregate outcomes, using aggregate data is less accurate than the prediction based on micro equations. Moreover. policy evaluation based on aggregate data can be grossly misleading.

Obtenção de óxidos a base de níquel e cobalto para reação de oxidação parcial do metano

Nickel-based catalysts supported on alumina have been widely used in various reactions to obtain synthesis gas or hydrogen. Usually, higher conversion levels are obtained by these catalysts, however, the deactivation by coke formation and sintering of metal particles are still problems to be solved. Several approaches have been employed in order to minimize these problems, among which stands out in recent years the use of additives such as oxides of alkali metals and rare earths. Similarly, the use of methodologies for the synthesis faster, easier, applicable on an industrial scale and to allow control of the microstructural characteristics of these catalysts, can together provide the solution to this problem. In this work, oxides with spinel type structure AB2O4, where A represents divalent cation and B represents trivalent cations are an important class of ceramic materials investigated worldwide in different fields of applications. The nickel cobaltite (NiCo2O4) was oxides of spinel type which has attracted considerable interest due to its applicability in several areas, such as chemical sensors, flat panel displays, optical limiters, electrode materials, pigments, electrocatalysis, electronic ceramics, among others. The catalyst precursor NiCo2O4 was prepared by a new chemical synthesis route using gelatine as directing agent. The polymer resin obtained was calcined at 350°C. The samples were calcined at different temperatures (550, 750 and 950°C) and characterized by X ray diffraction, measurements of specific surface area, temperature programmed reduction and scanning electron microscopy. The materials heat treated at 550 and 750°C were tested in the partial oxidation of methane. The set of techniques revealed, for solid preparations, the presence of the phase of spinel-type structure with the NiCo2O4 NixCo1-xO solid solution. This solid solution was identified by Rietveld refinement at all temperatures of heat treatment. The catalyst precursors calcined at 550 and 750°C showed conversion levels around 25 and 75%, respectively. The reason H2/CO was around 2 to the precursor treated at 750°C, proposed reason for the reaction of partial oxidation of methane, one can conclude that this material can be shown to produce synthesis gas suitable for use in the synthesis Fischer-Tropsch process

Hydroalumination of Thioacetylenes: A Versatile Generation and Reactions of -Aluminate Sulfides Intermediates

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Hydroalumination of seleno acetylenes: a versatile generation and reactions of alpha-aluminate vinyl selenide intermediates in the highly regio and stereoselective synthesis of telluro(seleno)ketene acetals

The hydroalumination of butylseleno acetylenes with DIBAL-H followed by addition of n-butyllithium generated in situ the (Z)-butylseleno vinyl alanates intermediates which were captured with C(4)H(9)TeBr furnishing the (E)-telluro(seleno)ketene acetals exclusively. The isomers with opposite stereochemistry (Z)-telluro(seleno)ketene acetals were obtained by the reduction of phenylseleno acetylenes with lithium di-(isobutyl)-n-butyl aluminate hydride (Zweifel's reagent) followed by reaction of (E)-phenylseleno vinyl alanates intermediates with C(4)H(9)TeBr. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Soil CO2 emission as related to incorporation of sugarcane crop residues and aggregate breaking after rotary tiller

O preparo do solo é um dos processos que aceleram a decomposição da matéria orgânica, transferindo carbono para atmosfera, principalmente na forma de CO2. Neste trabalho, investigou-se o efeito do preparo com enxada rotativa sobre as emissões de CO2 do solo durante 02 semanas após o preparo do solo, incluindo-se a presença de resíduos vegetais sobre a superfície. As emissões foram avaliadas por 15 dias após preparo em 3 parcelas: 1) sem preparo e sem palha superficial (SPs); 2) preparo com enxada rotativa sem a presença de palha na superfície (ERs), e 3) preparo com enxada rotativa com a presença de palha superficial (ERc). As emissões provenientes da ERc foram superiores às demais (0,777 g CO2 m-2 h-1), sendo as menores emissões registradas na parcela SPs (0,414 g CO2 m-2 h-1). As emissões totais indicaram que a diferença de C-CO2 emitida à atmosfera corresponde a 3% do total de carbono adicional presente na palha, na parcela ERc, quando comparado à parcela ERs. O aumento da emissão da parcela SPs para ERs foi acompanhado de uma modificação na distribuição do tamanho de agregados, especialmente aqueles com diâmetro médio inferior a 2 mm. O aumento da emissão da parcela ERs para ERc esteve relacionado a uma diminuição da massa de palha na superfície, com fragmentação e incorporação da mesma no interior do solo. Quando se analisa a correlação linear entre emissão de CO2 versus temperatura e umidade do solo, somente a emissão da ERc foi significativamente correlacionada (p<0,05) à umidade do solo.

Spatial variability of aggregate stability in latosols under sugarcane

Solos submetidos ao mesmo sistema de manejo manifestam variabilidade espacial diferenciada de seus atributos. A variabilidade espacial da estabilidade de agregados foi caracterizada em um Latossolo Vermelho distrófico e Latossolo Vermelho eutroférrico, sob cultivo de cana-de-açúcar. Foram realizadas amostragens de terra nos pontos de interseção de uma malha de 10 x 10 linhas, espaçadas de 10 m, totalizando 100 pontos de amostragem por área, coletadas nas camadas de 0,0-0,2 e 0,2-0,4 m de profundidade, para determinação de diâmetro médio geométrico (DMG), diâmetro médio ponderado (DMP), agregados na classe >2,0 mm e teor de matéria orgânica do solo. O Latossolo Vermelho eutroférrico apresenta maior estabilidade de agregados quando comparado com o Latossolo Vermelho distrófico, condizente com o maior teor de argila, matéria orgânica e mineralogia gibbsítica. A evolução diferenciada dos Latossolos estudados explica os maiores alcances, o menor coeficiente de variação (CV) e a menor variabilidade, observados no Latossolo Vermelho eutroférrico para todos os atributos estudados.

Limbal autograft transplantation in a dog with alkali-induced ulceration

Descreve-se um caso de um animal da espécie canina, fêmea, sem raça definida, de três meses de idade, com histórico de apatia, contato prévio com produto alcalino (hidróxido de sódio) e relutância em abrir o olho direito. Ao exame oftálmico, foram observados blefarospasmo, fotofobia, epífora, quemose discreta, hiperemia conjuntival, e edema corneal difuso com comprometimento do limbo. Foram realizados o teste da fluoresceína positivo e o Teste Lacrimal de Schirmer 32mm min-1. Com base nos achados, firmou-se o diagnóstico de úlcera por álcali e realizou-se transplante autógeno do limbo. No pós-operatório, observou-se vascularização corneal a partir do terceiro dia e sua intensificação, em número e calibre, nos dias subseqüentes. Também foram observadas mínimas áreas de transparência corneal. Os resultados obtidos permitem admitir que o transplante autógeno de limbo é procedimento factível para o manejo da terapia de úlceras de córnea por álcali.