Development of zonal cartilage constructs : effects of chondrocyte subpopulation, compressive stimulation, and culture models

Articular cartilage is a highly resilient tissue located at the ends of long bones. It has a zonal structure, which has functional significance in load-bearing. Cartilage does not spontaneously heal itself when damaged, and untreated cartilage lesions or age-related wear often lead to osteoarthritis (OA). OA is a degenerative condition that is highly prevalent, age-associated, and significantly affects patient mobility and quality of life. There is no cure for OA, and patients usually resort to replacing the biological joint with an artificial prosthesis. An alternative approach is to dynamically regenerate damaged or diseased cartilage through cartilage tissue engineering, where cells, materials, and stimuli are combined to form new cartilage. However, despite extensive research, major limitations remain that have prevented the wide-spread application of tissue-engineered cartilage. Critically, there is a dearth of information on whether autologous chondrocytes obtained from OA patients can be used to successfully generate cartilage tissues with structural hierarchy typically found in normal articular cartilage. I aim to address these limitations in this thesis by showing that chondrocyte subpopulations isolated from macroscopically normal areas of the cartilage can be used to engineer stratified cartilage tissues and that compressive loading plays an important role in zone-dependent biosynthesis of these chondrocytes. I first demonstrate that chondrocyte subpopulations from the superficial (S) and middle/deep (MD) zones of OA cartilage are responsive to compressive stimulation in vitro, and that the effect of compression on construct quality is zone-dependent. I also show that compressive stimulation can influence pericelluar matrix production, matrix metalloproteinase secretion, and cytokine expression in zonal chondrocytes in an alginate hydrogel model. Subsequently, I focus on recreating the zonal structure by forming layered constructs using the alginate-released chondrocyte (ARC) method either with or without polymeric scaffolds. Resulting zonal ARC constructs had hyaline morphology, and expressed cartilage matrix molecules such as proteoglycans and collagen type II in both scaffold-free and scaffold-based approaches. Overall, my findings demonstrate that chondrocyte subpopulations obtained from OA joints respond sensitively to compressive stimulation, and are able to form cartilaginous constructs with stratified organization similar to native cartilage using the scaffold-free and scaffold-based ARC technique. The ultimate goal in tissue engineering is to help provide improved treatment options for patients suffering from debilitating conditions such as OA. Further investigations in developing functional cartilage replacement tissues using autologous chondrocytes will bring us a step closer to improving the quality of life for millions of OA patients worldwide.

Integrated health prediction of bridge systems using dynamic object oriented Bayesian networks (DOOBNS)

The serviceability and safety of bridges are crucial to people’s daily lives and to the national economy. Every effort should be taken to make sure that bridges function safely and properly as any damage or fault during the service life can lead to transport paralysis, catastrophic loss of property or even casualties. Nonetheless, aggressive environmental conditions, ever-increasing and changing traffic loads and aging can all contribute to bridge deterioration. With often constrained budget, it is of significance to identify bridges and bridge elements that should be given higher priority for maintenance, rehabilitation or replacement, and to select optimal strategy. Bridge health prediction is an essential underpinning science to bridge maintenance optimization, since the effectiveness of optimal maintenance decision is largely dependent on the forecasting accuracy of bridge health performance. The current approaches for bridge health prediction can be categorised into two groups: condition ratings based and structural reliability based. A comprehensive literature review has revealed the following limitations of the current modelling approaches: (1) it is not evident in literature to date that any integrated approaches exist for modelling both serviceability and safety aspects so that both performance criteria can be evaluated coherently; (2) complex system modelling approaches have not been successfully applied to bridge deterioration modelling though a bridge is a complex system composed of many inter-related bridge elements; (3) multiple bridge deterioration factors, such as deterioration dependencies among different bridge elements, observed information, maintenance actions and environmental effects have not been considered jointly; (4) the existing approaches are lacking in Bayesian updating ability to incorporate a variety of event information; (5) the assumption of series and/or parallel relationship for bridge level reliability is always held in all structural reliability estimation of bridge systems. To address the deficiencies listed above, this research proposes three novel models based on the Dynamic Object Oriented Bayesian Networks (DOOBNs) approach. Model I aims to address bridge deterioration in serviceability using condition ratings as the health index. The bridge deterioration is represented in a hierarchical relationship, in accordance with the physical structure, so that the contribution of each bridge element to bridge deterioration can be tracked. A discrete-time Markov process is employed to model deterioration of bridge elements over time. In Model II, bridge deterioration in terms of safety is addressed. The structural reliability of bridge systems is estimated from bridge elements to the entire bridge. By means of conditional probability tables (CPTs), not only series-parallel relationship but also complex probabilistic relationship in bridge systems can be effectively modelled. The structural reliability of each bridge element is evaluated from its limit state functions, considering the probability distributions of resistance and applied load. Both Models I and II are designed in three steps: modelling consideration, DOOBN development and parameters estimation. Model III integrates Models I and II to address bridge health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects jointly. The modelling of bridge ratings is modified so that every basic modelling unit denotes one physical bridge element. According to the specific materials used, the integration of condition ratings and structural reliability is implemented through critical failure modes. Three case studies have been conducted to validate the proposed models, respectively. Carefully selected data and knowledge from bridge experts, the National Bridge Inventory (NBI) and existing literature were utilised for model validation. In addition, event information was generated using simulation to demonstrate the Bayesian updating ability of the proposed models. The prediction results of condition ratings and structural reliability were presented and interpreted for basic bridge elements and the whole bridge system. The results obtained from Model II were compared with the ones obtained from traditional structural reliability methods. Overall, the prediction results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed modelling approach for bridge health prediction and underpin the assertion that the three models can be used separately or integrated and are more effective than the current bridge deterioration modelling approaches. The primary contribution of this work is to enhance the knowledge in the field of bridge health prediction, where more comprehensive health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects are addressed jointly. The proposed models, characterised by probabilistic representation of bridge deterioration in hierarchical ways, demonstrated the effectiveness and pledge of DOOBNs approach to bridge health management. Additionally, the proposed models have significant potential for bridge maintenance optimization. Working together with advanced monitoring and inspection techniques, and a comprehensive bridge inventory, the proposed models can be used by bridge practitioners to achieve increased serviceability and safety as well as maintenance cost effectiveness.

Application of a human bone engineering platform to an in vitro and in vivo breast cancer metastasis model

Breast cancer in its advanced stage has a high predilection to the skeleton. Currently, treatment options of breast cancer-related bone metastasis are restricted to only palliative therapeutic modalities. This is due to the fact that mechanisms regarding the breast cancer celI-bone colonisation as well as the interactions of breast cancer cells with the bone microenvironment are not fully understood, yet. This might be explained through a lack of appropriate in vitro and in vivo models that are currently addressing the above mentioned issue. Hence the hypothesis that the translation of a bone tissue engineering platform could lead to improved and more physiological in vitro and in vivo model systems in order to investigate breast cancer related bone colonisation was embraced in this PhD thesis. Therefore the first objective was to develop an in vitro model system that mimics human mineralised bone matrix to the highest possible extent to examine the specific biological question, how the human bone matrix influences breast cancer cell behaviour. Thus, primary human osteoblasts were isolated from human bone and cultured under osteogenic conditions. Upon ammonium hydroxide treatment, a cell-free intact mineralised human bone matrix was left behind. Analyses revealed a similar protein and mineral composition of the decellularised osteoblast matrix to human bone. Seeding of a panel of breast cancer cells onto the bone mimicking matrix as well as reference substrates like standard tissue culture plastic and collagen coated tissue culture plastic revealed substrate specific differences of cellular behaviour. Analyses of attachment, alignment, migration, proliferation, invasion, as well as downstream signalling pathways showed that these cellular properties were influenced through the osteoblast matrix. The second objective of this PhD project was the development of a human ectopic bone model in NOD/SCID mice using medical grade polycaprolactone tricalcium phosphate (mPCL-TCP) scaffold. Human osteoblasts and mesenchymal stem cells were seeded onto an mPCL-TCP scaffold, fabricated using a fused deposition modelling technique. After subcutaneous implantation in conjunction with the bone morphogenetic protein 7, limited bone formation was observed due to the mechanical properties of the applied scaffold and restricted integration into the soft tissue of flank of NOD/SCID mice. Thus, a different scaffold fabrication technique was chosen using the same polymer. Electrospun tubular scaffolds were seeded with human osteoblasts, as they showed previously the highest amount of bone formation and implanted into the flanks of NOD/SCID mice. Ectopic bone formation with sufficient vascularisation could be observed. After implantation of breast cancer cells using a polyethylene glycol hydrogel in close proximity to the newly formed bone, macroscopic communication between the newly formed bone and the tumour could be observed. Taken together, this PhD project showed that bone tissue engineering platforms could be used to develop an in vitro and in vivo model system to study cancer cell colonisation in the bone microenvironment.

The roles of the preproghrelin-derived peptides - ghrelin, desacyl ghrelin and obestatin - in prostate cancer

Prostate cancer is the second most common cause of cancer related deaths in Western men. Despite the significant improvements in current treatment techniques, there is no cure for advanced metastatic, castrate-resistant disease. Early detection and prevention of progression to a castrate-resistant state may provide new strategies to improve survival. A number of growth factors have been shown to act in an autocrine/paracrine manner to modulate prostate cancer tumour growth. Our laboratory has previously shown that ghrelin and its receptors (the functional GHS-R1a and the non-functional GHS-R1b) are expressed in prostate cancer specimens and cell lines. We have shown that ghrelin increases cell proliferation in the PC3 and LNCaP prostate cancer cell lines through activation of ERK1/2, suggesting that ghrelin could regulate prostate cancer cell growth and play a role in the progression of the disease. Ghrelin is a 28 amino-acid peptide hormone, identified to be the natural ligand of the growth hormone secretagogue receptor (GHS-R1a). It is well characterised as a growth hormone releasing and as an orexigenic peptide that stimulates appetite and feeding and regulates energy expenditure and bodyweight. In addition to its orexigenic properties, ghrelin has been shown to play a regulatory role in a number of systems, including the reproductive, immune and cardiovascular systems and may play a role in a number of pathological conditions such as chronic heart failure, anorexia, cachexia, obesity, diabetes and cancer. In cancer, ghrelin and its receptor are expressed in a range of tumours and cancer cell lines and ghrelin has been demonstrated to modulate cell proliferation, apoptosis, migration and invasion in some cell types. The ghrelin gene (GHRL) encodes preproghrelin peptide, which is processed to produce three currently known functional peptides - ghrelin, desacyl ghrelin and obestatin. Prohormone convertases (PCs) have been shown to cleave the preproghrelin peptide into two primary products - the 28 amino acid peptide, ghrelin, and the remaining 117 amino acid C-terminal peptide, C-ghrelin. C-ghrelin can then be further processed to produce the 23 amino acid peptide, obestatin. Ghrelin circulates in two different forms - an octanoylated form (known as ghrelin) and a non-octanoylated form, desacyl ghrelin. The unique post-translational addition of octanoic acid to the serine 3 residue of the propeptide chain to form acylated ghrelin is catalysed by ghrelin O-acyltransferase (GOAT). This modification is necessary for binding of ghrelin to its only known functional receptor, the GHS-R1a. As desacyl ghrelin cannot bind and activate the GHS-R1a, it was initially thought to be an inactive peptide, despite the fact that it circulates at much higher levels than ghrelin. Further research has demonstrated that desacyl ghrelin is biologically active and shares some of the actions of ghrelin, as well as having some opposing and distinct roles. Interestingly, both ghrelin and desacyl ghrelin have been shown to modulate apoptosis, cell differentiation and proliferation in some cell types, and to stimulate cell proliferation through activation of ERK1/2 and PI3K/Akt pathways. The third known peptide product of the ghrelin preprohormone, obestatin, was initially thought to oppose the actions of ghrelin in appetite regulation and food intake and to mediate its effects through the G protein-coupled receptor 39 (GPR39). Subsequent research failed to reproduce the initial findings, however, and the possible anorexigenic effects of obestatin, as well as the identity of its receptor, remain unclear. Obestatin plays some important physiological roles, including roles in improving memory, the inhibition of thirst and anxiety, increased secretion of pancreatic juice, and regulation of cell proliferation, survival, apoptosis and differentiation. Preliminary studies have also shown that obestatin stimulates cell proliferation in some cell types through activation of ERK1/2, Akt and PKC pathways. Overall, however, at the commencement of this PhD project, relatively little was known regarding the functions and mechanisms of action of the preproghrelin-derived functional peptides in modulating prostate cancer cell proliferation. The roles of obestatin, and desacyl ghrelin as potential growth factors had not previously been investigated, and the potential expression and regulation of the preproghrelin processing enzymes, GOAT and prohormone convertases was unknown in prostate cancer cell lines. Therefore, the overall objectives of this study were to: 1. investigate the effects of obestatin on cell proliferation and signaling in prostate cancer cell lines 2. compare the effects of desacyl ghrelin and ghrelin on cell proliferation and signaling in prostate cancer cell lines 3. investigate whether prostate cancer cell lines possess the necessary enzymatic machinery to produce ghrelin and desacyl ghrelin and if these peptides can regulate GOAT expression Our laboratory has previously shown that ghrelin stimulates cell proliferation in the PC3 and LNCaP prostate cancer cell line through activation of the ERK1/2 pathway. In this study it has been demonstrated that treatments with either ghrelin, desacyl ghrelin or obestatin over 72 hours significantly increased cell proliferation in the PC3 prostate cancer cell line but had no significant effect in the RWPE-1 transformed normal prostate cell line. Ghrelin (1000nM) stimulated cell proliferation in the PC3 prostate cancer cell line by 31.66 6.68% (p<0.01) with the WST-1 method, and 13.55 5.68% (p<0.05) with the CyQUANT assay. Desacyl ghrelin (1000nM) increased cell proliferation in PC3 cells by 21.73 2.62% (p<0.01) (WST-1), and 15.46 7.05% (p<0.05) (CyQUANT) above untreated control. Obestatin (1000nM) induced a 28.37 7.47% (p<0.01) (WST-1) and 12.14 7.47% (p<0.05) (CyQUANT) significant increase in cell proliferation in the PC3 prostate cancer cell line. Ghrelin and desacyl ghrelin treatments stimulated Akt and ERK phosphorylation across a range of concentrations (p<0.01). Obestatin treatment significantly stimulated Akt, ERK and PKC phosphorylation (p<0.05). Through the use of specific inhibitors, the MAPK inhibitor U0126 and the Akt1/2 kinase inhibitor, it was demonstrated that ghrelin- and obestatin-induced cell proliferation in the PC3 prostate cancer cell line is mediated through activation of ERK1/2 and Akt pathways. Although desacyl ghrelin significantly stimulated Akt and ERK phosphorylation, U0126 failed to prevent desacyl ghrelin-induced cell proliferation suggesting ghrelin and desacyl ghrelin might act through different mechanisms to increase cell proliferation. Ghrelin and desacyl ghrelin have shown a proliferative effect in osteoblasts, pancreatic -cells and cardiomyocytes through activation of ERK1/2 and PI3K/Akt pathways. Here it has been shown that ghrelin and its non-acylated form exert the same function and stimulate cell proliferation in the PC3 prostate cancer cell line through activation of the Akt pathway. Ghrelin-induced proliferation was also mediated through activation of the ERK1/2 pathway, however, desacyl ghrelin seems to stimulate cell proliferation in an ERK1/2-independent manner. As desacyl ghrelin does not bind and activate GHSR1a, the only known functional ghrelin receptor, the finding that both ghrelin and desacyl ghrelin stimulate cell proliferation in the PC3 cell line suggests that these peptides could be acting through the yet unidentified alternative ghrelin receptor in this cell type. Obestatin treatment also stimulated PKC phosphorylation, however, a direct role for this pathway in stimulating cell proliferation could not be proven using available PKC pathway inhibitors, as they caused significant cell death over the extended timeframe of the cell proliferation assays. Obestatin has been shown to stimulate cell proliferation through activation of PKC isoforms in human retinal epithelial cells and in the human gastric cancer cell line KATO-III. We have demonstrated that all of the prostate-derived cell lines examined (PC3, LNCaP, DU145, 22Rv1, RWPE-1 and RWPE-2) expressed GOAT and at least one of the prohormone convertases, which are known to cleave the proghrelin peptide, PC1/3, PC2 and furin, at the mRNA level. These cells, therefore, are likely to possess the necessary machinery to cleave the preproghrelin protein and to produce the mature ghrelin and desacyl ghrelin peptides. In addition to prohormone convertases, the presence of octanoic acid is essential for acylated ghrelin production. In this study octanoic acid supplementation significantly increased cell proliferation in the PC3 prostate cancer cell line by over 20% compared to untreated controls (p<0.01), but surprisingly, not in the DU145, LNCaP or 22Rv1 prostate cancer cell lines or in the RWPE-1 and RWPE-2 prostate-derived cell lines. In addition, we demonstrated that exogenous ghrelin induced a statistically significant two-fold decrease in GOAT mRNA expression in the PC3 cell line (p<0.05), suggesting that ghrelin could pontentially downregulate its own acylation and, therefore, regulate the balance between ghrelin and desacyl ghrelin. This was not observed, however, in the DU145 and LNCaP prostate cancer cell lines. The GOAT-ghrelin system represents a direct link between ingested nutrients and regulation of ghrelin production and the ghrelin/desacyl ghrelin ratio. Regulation of ghrelin acylation is a potentially attractive and desirable tool for the development of better therapies for a number of pathological conditions where ghrelin has been shown to play a key role. The finding that desacyl ghrelin stimulates cell proliferation in the PC3 prostate cancer cell line, and responds to ghrelin in the same way, suggests that this cell line expresses an alternative ghrelin receptor. Although all the cell lines examined expressed both GHS-R1a and GHS-R1b mRNA, it remains uncertain whether these cell lines express the unidentified alternative ghrelin receptor. It is possible that the varied responses seen could be due to the expression of different ghrelin receptors in different cell lines. In addition to GOAT, prohormone convertases and octanoic acid availability may regulate the production of different peptides from the ghrelin preprohormone. The studies presented in this thesis provide significant new information regarding the roles and mechanisms of action of the preproghrelin-derived peptides, ghrelin, desacyl ghrelin and obestatin, in modulating prostate cancer cell line proliferation. A number of key questions remain to be resolved, however, including the identification of the alternative ghrelin/desacyl ghrelin receptor, the identification of the obestatin receptor, a clarification of the signaling mechanisms which mediate cell proliferation in response to obestatin treatment and a better understanding of the regulation at both the gene and post-translational levels of functional peptide generation. Further studies investigating the role of the ghrelin axis using in vivo prostate cancer models may be warranted. Until these issues are determined, the potential for the ghrelin axis, to be recognised as a novel useful target for therapy for cancer or other pathologies will be uncertain.

Dirichlet process mixture models for unsupervised clustering of symptoms in Parkinson's disease

In this paper, the goal of identifying disease subgroups based on differences in observed symptom profile is considered. Commonly referred to as phenotype identification, solutions to this task often involve the application of unsupervised clustering techniques. In this paper, we investigate the application of a Dirichlet Process mixture (DPM) model for this task. This model is defined by the placement of the Dirichlet Process (DP) on the unknown components of a mixture model, allowing for the expression of uncertainty about the partitioning of observed data into homogeneous subgroups. To exemplify this approach, an application to phenotype identification in Parkinson’s disease (PD) is considered, with symptom profiles collected using the Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS). Clustering, Dirichlet Process mixture, Parkinson’s disease, UPDRS.

Bayesian hierarchical models in statistical quality control methods to improve healthcare in hospitals

Quality oriented management systems and methods have become the dominant business and governance paradigm. From this perspective, satisfying customers’ expectations by supplying reliable, good quality products and services is the key factor for an organization and even government. During recent decades, Statistical Quality Control (SQC) methods have been developed as the technical core of quality management and continuous improvement philosophy and now are being applied widely to improve the quality of products and services in industrial and business sectors. Recently SQC tools, in particular quality control charts, have been used in healthcare surveillance. In some cases, these tools have been modified and developed to better suit the health sector characteristics and needs. It seems that some of the work in the healthcare area has evolved independently of the development of industrial statistical process control methods. Therefore analysing and comparing paradigms and the characteristics of quality control charts and techniques across the different sectors presents some opportunities for transferring knowledge and future development in each sectors. Meanwhile considering capabilities of Bayesian approach particularly Bayesian hierarchical models and computational techniques in which all uncertainty are expressed as a structure of probability, facilitates decision making and cost-effectiveness analyses. Therefore, this research investigates the use of quality improvement cycle in a health vii setting using clinical data from a hospital. The need of clinical data for monitoring purposes is investigated in two aspects. A framework and appropriate tools from the industrial context are proposed and applied to evaluate and improve data quality in available datasets and data flow; then a data capturing algorithm using Bayesian decision making methods is developed to determine economical sample size for statistical analyses within the quality improvement cycle. Following ensuring clinical data quality, some characteristics of control charts in the health context including the necessity of monitoring attribute data and correlated quality characteristics are considered. To this end, multivariate control charts from an industrial context are adapted to monitor radiation delivered to patients undergoing diagnostic coronary angiogram and various risk-adjusted control charts are constructed and investigated in monitoring binary outcomes of clinical interventions as well as postintervention survival time. Meanwhile, adoption of a Bayesian approach is proposed as a new framework in estimation of change point following control chart’s signal. This estimate aims to facilitate root causes efforts in quality improvement cycle since it cuts the search for the potential causes of detected changes to a tighter time-frame prior to the signal. This approach enables us to obtain highly informative estimates for change point parameters since probability distribution based results are obtained. Using Bayesian hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo computational methods, Bayesian estimators of the time and the magnitude of various change scenarios including step change, linear trend and multiple change in a Poisson process are developed and investigated. The benefits of change point investigation is revisited and promoted in monitoring hospital outcomes where the developed Bayesian estimator reports the true time of the shifts, compared to priori known causes, detected by control charts in monitoring rate of excess usage of blood products and major adverse events during and after cardiac surgery in a local hospital. The development of the Bayesian change point estimators are then followed in a healthcare surveillances for processes in which pre-intervention characteristics of patients are viii affecting the outcomes. In this setting, at first, the Bayesian estimator is extended to capture the patient mix, covariates, through risk models underlying risk-adjusted control charts. Variations of the estimator are developed to estimate the true time of step changes and linear trends in odds ratio of intensive care unit outcomes in a local hospital. Secondly, the Bayesian estimator is extended to identify the time of a shift in mean survival time after a clinical intervention which is being monitored by riskadjusted survival time control charts. In this context, the survival time after a clinical intervention is also affected by patient mix and the survival function is constructed using survival prediction model. The simulation study undertaken in each research component and obtained results highly recommend the developed Bayesian estimators as a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances as well as industrial and business contexts. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The empirical results and simulations indicate that the Bayesian estimators are a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The advantages of the Bayesian approach seen in general context of quality control may also be extended in the industrial and business domains where quality monitoring was initially developed.

Quantum models of cognition and decision

Much of our understanding of human thinking is based on probabilistic models. This innovative book by Jerome R. Busemeyer and Peter D. Bruza argues that, actually, the underlying mathematical structures from quantum theory provide a much better account of human thinking than traditional models. They introduce the foundations for modelling probabilistic-dynamic systems using two aspects of quantum theory. The first, "contextuality", is a way to understand interference effects found with inferences and decisions under conditions of uncertainty. The second, "entanglement", allows cognitive phenomena to be modelled in non-reductionist ways. Employing these principles drawn from quantum theory allows us to view human cognition and decision in a totally new light...

Prognostic significance of IGF and ECM induced signalling proteins in breast cancer patients

Breast cancer is a leading contributor to the burden of disease in Australia. Fortunately, the recent introduction of diverse therapeutic strategies have improved the survival outcome for many women. Despite this, the clinical management of breast cancer remains problematic as not all approaches are sufficiently sophisticated to take into account the heterogeneity of this disease and are unable to predict disease progression, in particular, metastasis. As such, women with good prognostic outcomes are exposed to the side effects of therapies without added benefit. Furthermore, women with aggressive disease for whom these advanced treatments would deliver benefit cannot be distinguished and opportunities for more intensive or novel treatment are lost. This study is designed to identify novel factors associated with disease progression, and the potential to inform disease prognosis. Frequently overlooked, yet common mediators of disease are the interactions that take place between the insulin-like growth factor (IGF) system and the extracellular matrix (ECM). Our laboratory has previously demonstrated that multiprotein insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I): insulin-like growth factor binding protein (IGFBP): vitronectin (VN) complexes stimulate migration of breast cancer cells in vitro, via the cooperative involvement of the insulin-like growth factor type I receptor (IGF-IR) and VN-binding integrins. However, the effects of IGF and ECM protein interactions on the dissemination and progression of breast cancer in vivo are unknown. It was hypothesised that interactions between proteins required for IGF induced signalling events and those within the ECM contribute to breast cancer metastasis and are prognostic and predictive indicators of patient outcome. To address this hypothesis, semiquantitative immunohistochemistry (IHC) analyses were performed to compare the extracellular and subcellular distribution of IGF and ECM induced signalling proteins between matched normal, primary cancer, and metastatic cancer among archival formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) breast tissue samples collected from women attending the Princess Alexandra Hospital, Brisbane. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards (PH) regression survival models in conjunction with a modified „purposeful selection of covariates. method were applied to determine the prognostic potential of these proteins. This study provides the first in-depth, compartmentalised analysis of the distribution of IGF and ECM induced signalling proteins. As protein function and protein localisation are closely correlated, these findings provide novel insights into IGF signalling and ECM protein function during breast cancer development and progression. Distinct IGF signalling and ECM protein immunoreactivity was observed in the stroma and/or in subcellular locations in normal breast, primary cancer and metastatic cancer tissues. Analysis of the presence and location of stratifin (SFN) suggested a causal relationship in ECM remodelling events during breast cancer development and progression. The results of this study have also suggested that fibronectin (FN) and ¥â1 integrin are important for the formation of invadopodia and epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) events. Our data also highlighted the importance of the temporal and spatial distribution of IGF induced signalling proteins in breast cancer metastasis; in particular, SFN, enhancer-of-split and hairy-related protein 2 (SHARP-2), total-akt/protein kinase B 1 (Total-AKT1), phosphorylated-akt/protein kinase B (P-AKT), extracellular signal-related kinase-1 and extracellular signal-related kinase-2 (ERK1/2) and phosphorylated-extracellular signal-related kinase-1 and extracellular signal-related kinase-2 (P-ERK1/2). Multivariate survival models were created from the immunohistochemical data. These models were found to fit well with these data with very high statistical confidence. Numerous prognostic confounding effects and effect modifications were identified among elements of the ECM and IGF signalling cascade and corroborate the survival models. This finding provides further evidence for the prognostic potential of IGF and ECM induced signalling proteins. In addition, the adjusted measures of associations obtained in this study have strengthened the validity and utility of the resulting models. The findings from this study provide insights into the biological interactions that occur during the development of breast tissue and contribute to disease progression. Importantly, these multivariate survival models could provide important prognostic and predictive indicators that assist the clinical management of breast disease, namely in the early identification of cancers with a propensity to metastasise, and/or recur following adjuvant therapy. The outcomes of this study further inform the development of new therapeutics to aid patient recovery. The findings from this study have widespread clinical application in the diagnosis of disease and prognosis of disease progression, and inform the most appropriate clinical management of individuals with breast cancer.

Environmental and economic evaluation of N fertilizer rates in a maize crop in Italy : a spatial and temporal analysis using crop models

Crop simulation models have the potential to assess the risk associated with the selection of a specific N fertilizer rate, by integrating the effects of soil-crop interactions on crop growth under different pedo-climatic and management conditions. The objective of this study was to simulate the environmental and economic impact (nitrate leaching and N2O emissions) of a spatially variable N fertilizer application in an irrigated maize field in Italy. The validated SALUS model was run with 5 nitrogen rates scenarios, 50, 100, 150, 200, and 250 kg N ha−1, with the latter being the N fertilization adopted by the farmer. The long-term (25 years) simulations were performed on two previously identified spatially and temporally stable zones, a high yielding and low yielding zone. The simulation results showed that N fertilizer rate can be reduced without affecting yield and net return. The marginal net return was on average higher for the high yield zone, with values ranging from 1550 to 2650 € ha−1 for the 200 N and 1485 to 2875 € ha−1 for the 250 N. N leaching varied between 16.4 and 19.3 kg N ha−1 for the 200 N and the 250 N in the high yield zone. In the low yield zone, the 250 N had a significantly higher N leaching. N2O emissions varied between 0.28 kg N2O ha−1 for the 50 kg N ha−1 rate to a maximum of 1.41 kg N2O ha−1 for the 250 kg N ha−1 rate.

Physical access control administration using building information models

Physical access control systems play a central role in the protection of critical infrastructures, where both the provision of timely access and preserving the security of sensitive areas are paramount. In this paper we discuss the shortcomings of existing approaches to the administration of physical access control in complex environments. At the heart of the problem is the current dependency on human administrators to reason about the implications of the provision or the revocation of staff access to an area within these facilities. We demonstrate how utilising Building Information Models (BIMs) and the capabilities they provide, including 3D representation of a facility and path-finding can reduce possible intentional or accidental errors made by security administrators.

An investigation on the accuracy of regional ocean models through field trials

Recent efforts in mission planning for underwater vehicles have utilised predictive models to aid in navigation, optimal path planning and drive opportunistic sampling. Although these models provide information at a unprecedented resolutions and have proven to increase accuracy and effectiveness in multiple campaigns, most are deterministic in nature. Thus, predictions cannot be incorporated into probabilistic planning frameworks, nor do they provide any metric on the variance or confidence of the output variables. In this paper, we provide an initial investigation into determining the confidence of ocean model predictions based on the results of multiple field deployments of two autonomous underwater vehicles. For multiple missions conducted over a two-month period in 2011, we compare actual vehicle executions to simulations of the same missions through the Regional Ocean Modeling System in an ocean region off the coast of southern California. This comparison provides a qualitative analysis of the current velocity predictions for areas within the selected deployment region. Ultimately, we present a spatial heat-map of the correlation between the ocean model predictions and the actual mission executions. Knowing where the model provides unreliable predictions can be incorporated into planners to increase the utility and application of the deterministic estimations.

A sequential Monte Carlo approach to the sequential design for discriminating between rival continuous data models

Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo approach to Bayesian sequential design for the incorporation of model uncertainty. The methodology is demonstrated through the development and implementation of two model discrimination utilities; mutual information and total separation, but it can also be applied more generally if one has different experimental aims. A sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is run for each rival model (in parallel), and provides a convenient estimate of the marginal likelihood (of each model) given the data, which can be used for model comparison and in the evaluation of utility functions. A major benefit of this approach is that it requires very little problem specific tuning and is also computationally efficient when compared to full Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches. This research is motivated by applications in drug development and chemical engineering.

Moving beyond transition pedagogy: Maturity models and student engagement

Australian higher education institutions (HEIs) have entered a new phase of regulation and accreditation which includes performance-based funding relating to the participation and retention of students from social and cultural groups previously underrepresented in higher education. However, in addressing these priorities, it is critical that HEIs do not further disadvantage students from certain groups by identifying them for attention because of their social or cultural backgrounds, circumstances which are largely beyond the control of students. In response, many HEIs are focusing effort on university-wide approaches to enhancing the student experience because such approaches will enhance the engagement, success and retention of all students, and in doing so, particularly benefit those students who come from underrepresented groups. Measuring and benchmarking student experiences and engagement that arise from these efforts is well supported by extensive collections of student experience survey data. However no comparable instrument exists that measures the capability of institutions to influence and/or enhance student experiences where capability is an indication of how well an organisational process does what it is designed to do (Rosemann & de Bruin, 2005). This paper proposes that the concept of a maturity model (Marshall, 2010; Paulk, 1999) may be useful as a way of assessing the capability of HEIs to provide and implement student engagement, success and retention activities. We will describe the Student Engagement, Success and Retention Maturity Model (SESR-MM), (Clarke, Nelson & Stoodley, 2012; Nelson, Clarke & Stoodley, 2012) we are currently investigating. We will discuss if our research may address the current gap by facilitating the development of an SESR-MM instrument that aims (i) to enable institutions to assess the capability of their current student engagement and retention programs and strategies to influence and respond to student experiences within the institution; and (ii) to provide institutions with the opportunity to understand various practices across the sector with a view to further improving programs and practices relevant to their context. The first aim of our research is to extend the generational approach which has been useful in considering the evolutionary nature of the first year experience (FYE) (Wilson, 2009). Three generations have been identified and explored: First generation approaches that focus on co-curricular strategies (e.g. orientation and peer programs); Second generation approaches that focus on curriculum (e.g. pedagogy, curriculum design, and learning and teaching practice); and third generation approaches—also referred to as transition pedagogy—that focus on the production of an institution-wide integrated holistic intentional blend of curricular and co-curricular activities (Kift, Nelson & Clarke, 2010). The second aim of this research is to move beyond assessments of students’ experiences to focus on assessing institutional processes and their capability to influence student engagement. In essence, we propose to develop and use the maturity model concept to produce an instrument that will indicate the capability of HEIs to manage and improve student engagement, success and retention programs and strategies. References Australian Council for Educational Research. (n.d.). Australasian Survey of Student Engagement. Retrieved from http://www.acer.edu.au/research/ausse/background Clarke, J., Nelson, K., & Stoodley, I. (2012, July). The Maturity Model concept as framework for assessing the capability of higher education institutions to address student engagement, success and retention: New horizon or false dawn? A Nuts & Bolts presentation at the 15th International Conference on the First Year in Higher Education, “New Horizons,” Brisbane, Australia. Kift, S., Nelson, K., & Clarke, J. (2010) Transition pedagogy - a third generation approach to FYE: A case study of policy and practice for the higher education sector. The International Journal of the First Year in Higher Education, 1(1), pp. 1-20. Department of Education, Employment and Workplace Relations. (n.d.). The University Experience Survey. Advancing quality in higher education information sheet. Retrieved from http://www.deewr.gov.au/HigherEducation/Policy/Documents/University_Experience_Survey.pdf Marshall, S. (2010). A quality framework for continuous improvement of e-Learning: The e-Learning Maturity Model. Journal of Distance Education, 24(1), 143-166. Nelson, K., Clarke, J., & Stoodley, I. (2012). An exploration of the Maturity Model concept as a vehicle for higher education institutions to assess their capability to address student engagement. A work in progress. Submitted for publication. Paulk, M. (1999). Using the Software CMM with good judgment, ASQ Software Quality Professional, 1(3), 19-29. Wilson, K. (2009, June–July). The impact of institutional, programmatic and personal interventions on an effective and sustainable first-year student experience. Keynote address presented at the 12th Pacific Rim First Year in Higher Education Conference, “Preparing for Tomorrow Today: The First Year as Foundation,” Townsville, Australia. Retrieved from http://www.fyhe.com.au/past_papers/papers09/ppts/Keithia_Wilson_paper.pdf

Bayesian experimental design for models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper we present a methodology for designing experiments for efficiently estimating the parameters of models with computationally intractable likelihoods. The approach combines a commonly used methodology for robust experimental design, based on Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to ensure that no likelihood evaluations are required. The utility function considered for precise parameter estimation is based upon the precision of the ABC posterior distribution, which we form efficiently via the ABC rejection algorithm based on pre-computed model simulations. Our focus is on stochastic models and, in particular, we investigate the methodology for Markov process models of epidemics and macroparasite population evolution. The macroparasite example involves a multivariate process and we assess the loss of information from not observing all variables.