936 resultados para ARI endemicity forecasting


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Most epidemiological studies with Wegener`s granulomatosis (WG) patients are based on populations from the Northern hemisphere, whereas very few studies have been conducted in Southern hemisphere populations, particularly from South America. The authors performed a large retrospective, demographic study including clinical and laboratory profiles of 134 consecutive WG patients seen at one Brazilian center from 1999 to 2009. Mean age at initial WG diagnosis was 43.4 +/- 15.5 years, and mean disease duration was 8.6 +/- 6.6 years. Sixty-four (47.8%) patients were male and a total of 113 (84.3%) subjects were white. Ear/nose/throat involvement occurred in 85.8%. The classic lung and renal involvement were observed in 77.6% and 75.4%, respectively, followed by ocular (35.8%), musculoskeletal (33.4%), cutaneous (29.1%), neurological (20.1%), cardiac (11.2%), and genitourinary involvement in 2.2% of cases. Cytoplasmic pattern-antineutrophil cytoplasmic antibody was detected in 83 (61.9%) cases. Ten (7.5%) individuals presented limited forms of WG. Classic therapy with corticosteroids and cyclophosphamide was used in 97 cases (72.4%). There were no cases of tuberculosis or Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia, but cutaneous herpes zoster occurred in eight (6.0%) individuals. There were 29 deaths (21.6%). Eighteen patients died of septic shock (mainly bacterial pneumonia), whereas four died of alveolar hemorrhage, four of myocardial infarction, and three of other causes. In summary, our data from a very large retrospective and descriptive study mirrored the main clinical features of WG described in other countries, demonstrating that they may serve as a reference for South American populations.

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The value of a seasonal forecasting system based on phases of the Southern Oscillation was estimated for a representative dryland wheat grower in the vicinity of Goondiwindi. In particular the effects on this estimate of risk attitude and planting conditions were examined. A recursive stochastic programming approach was used to identify the grower's utility-maximising action set in the event of each of the climate patterns over the period 1894-1991 recurring In the imminent season. The approach was repeated with and without use of the forecasts. The choices examined were, at planting, nitrogen application rate and cultivar and, later in the season, choices of proceeding with or abandoning each wheat activity, The value of the forecasting system was estimated as the maximum amount the grower could afford to pay for its use without expected utility being lowered relative to its non use.

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Background-Novel therapies have recently become available for pulmonary arterial hypertension. We conducted a study to characterize mortality in a multicenter prospective cohort of patients diagnosed with idiopathic, familial, or anorexigen-associated pulmonary arterial hypertension in the modern management era. Methods and Results-Between October 2002 and October 2003, 354 consecutive adult patients with idiopathic, familial, or anorexigen-associated pulmonary arterial hypertension (56 incident and 298 prevalent cases) were prospectively enrolled. Patients were followed up for 3 years, and survival rates were analyzed. For incident cases, estimated survival (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) at 1, 2, and 3 years was 85.7% (95% CI, 76.5 to 94.9), 69.6% (95% CI, 57.6 to 81.6), and 54.9% (95% CI, 41.8 to 68.0), respectively. In a combined analysis population (incident patients and prevalent patients diagnosed within 3 years before study entry; n = 190), 1-, 2-, and 3-year survival estimates were 82.9% (95% CI, 72.4 to 95.0), 67.1% (95% CI, 57.1 to 78.8), and 58.2% (95% CI, 49.0 to 69.3), respectively. Individual survival analysis identified the following as significantly and positively associated with survival: female gender, New York Heart Association functional class I/II, greater 6-minute walk distance, lower right atrial pressure, and higher cardiac output. Multivariable analysis showed that being female, having a greater 6-minute walk distance, and exhibiting higher cardiac output were jointly significantly associated with improved survival. Conclusions-In the modern management era, idiopathic, familial, and anorexigen-associated pulmonary arterial hypertension remains a progressive, fatal disease. Mortality is most closely associated with male gender, right ventricular hemodynamic function, and exercise limitation. (Circulation. 2010; 122: 156-163.)

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The complexity of immunoregulation has focused attention on the CD4(+) T ""suppressor"" regulatory cell (T(reg)), which helps maintain balance between immunity and tolerance. An immunoregulatory T-cell population that upon activation amplifies cellular immune responses was described in murine models more than 30 years ago; however, no study has yet identified a naturally occurring T ""inducer"" cell type. Here, we report that the ectoenzyme CD39/NTPDase1 (ecto-nucleoside triphosphate diphosphohydrolase 1) helps to delineate a novel population of human ""inducer"" CD4(+) T cells (T(ind)) that significantly increases the proliferation and cytokine production of responder T cells in a dose-dependent manner. Furthermore, this unique T(ind) subset produces a distinct repertoire of cytokines in comparison to the other CD4(+) T-cell subsets. We propose that this novel CD4(+) T-cell population counterbalances the suppressive activity of suppressor T(reg) in peripheral blood and serves as a calibrator of immunoregulation.

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Background. Clinical manifestations of dengue vary in different areas of endemicity and between specific age groups, whereas predictors of outcome have remained controversial. In Brazil, the disease burden predominantly affects adults, with an increasing trend toward progression to dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) noted. Methods. A cohort of adults with confirmed cases of dengue was recruited in central Brazil in 2005. Patients were classified according to the severity of their disease. Associations of antibody responses, viremia levels (as determined by real-time polymerase chain reaction [PCR]), and serotypes (as determined by multiplex PCR) with disease severity were evaluated. Results. Of the 185 symptomatic patients > 14 years of age who had a confirmed case of dengue, 26.5% and 23.2% were classified as having intermediate dengue fever (DF)/ DHF (defined as internal hemorrhage, plasma leakage, manifested signs of shock, and/ or thrombocytopenia [platelet count, <= 50,000 platelets/mm(3)]) and DHF, respectively. The onset of intermediate DF/ DHF and DHF occurred at a late stage of disease, around the period of defervescence. Patients with DHF had abnormal liver enzyme levels, with a > 3-fold increase in aspartate aminotransferase level, compared with the range of values considered to be normal. Overall, 65% of patients presented with secondary infections with dengue virus, with such infection occurring in similar proportions of patients in each of the 3 disease category groups. Dengue virus serotype 3 (DV3) was the predominant serotype, and viremia was detected during and after defervescence among patients with DHF or intermediate DF/ DHF. Conclusions. Viremia was detected after defervescence in adult patients classified as having DHF or intermediate DF/ DHF. Secondary infection was not a predictor of severe clinical manifestation in adults with infected with the DV3 serotype.

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Hemoglobin profile studies have been carried out in four samples from different districts of Porto Velho (Rondonia State) in the western Amazonian region of Brazil: Candelaria, Bate Estaca, Hemeron (at the State Blood Bank), and Sao Carlos. Samples from 337 unrelated individuals were collected during medical and paramedical team visits by professionals from the Instituto de Pesquisa em Patologia Tropical and the Centro de Pesquisa em Patologias Tropicais (both research institutes in tropical diseases). The aim of this study is to assess the frequency of alleles in the hemoglobin system, mainly alleles HB*A, *S, and *E. The overall phenotype frequencies were FIB A,S = 0.025, HB A,E = 0.006, and HB A,A = 0.969. Samples from the blood bank subjects and samples from the homogeneous areas of Silo Carlos and Candelaria plus Bate Estaca have a chi-square of heterogeneity of 6.383 (p = 0.041) and 8.406 (p = 0.015), respectively. The allele frequencies (HB*A = 0.984, HB*S = 0.012, and HB*E = 0.003) do not significantly differ from frequencies found in other Brazilian regions.

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Few studies has been done using guided bone regeneration in maxillary sinus defects. Aim: To assess the bone repair process in surgical defects on the alveolar wall of the monkey maxillary sinus, which communicates with the sinus cavity, by using collagen membranes: Gen-derm - Genius Baumer, Pro-tape - Proline and autologous temporal fascia. Materials and Methods: In this prospective and experimental study, orosinusal communications were performed in four tufted capuchin monkeys (Cebus apella) and histologic analysis was carried out 180 days after. Results: In the defects without a cover (control), bone proliferation predominated in two animals and fibrous connective tissue predominated in the other two. In defects repaired with a temporal fascia flap, fibrous connective tissue predominated in three animals and bone proliferation predominated in one. In the defects repaired with Gen-derm or Pro-tape collagen membranes there was complete bone proliferation in three animals and fibrous connective tissue in one. Conclusions: Surgical defect can be repaired with both bone tissue and fibrous connective tissue in all study groups; collagen membranes was more beneficial in the bone repair process than temporal fascia or absence of a barrier.

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Prioritizing areas for conservation requires the use of surrogates for assessing overall patterns of biodiversity. Effective surrogates will reflect general biogeographical patterns and the evolutionary processes that have given rise to these and their efficiency is likely to lie influenced by several factors, including the spatial scale of species turnover and the overall congruence of the biogeographical history. We examine patterns of surrogacy for insects, snails, one family of plants and vertebrates from rainforests of northeast Queensland, an area characterized by high endemicity and an underlying history of climate-induced vicariance. Nearly all taxa provided some level of prediction of the conservation values For others. However, despite an overall correlation of the patterns of species richness and complementarity, the efficiency of surrogacy was highly asymmetric.. snails and insects were strong predictors of conservation priorities for vertebrates, but not vice versa. These results confirm predictions that taxon surrogates can be effective in highly diverse tropical systems where there is a strong history of vicariant biogeography, but also indicate that correlated patterns for species richness and/or complementarity do not guarantee that one taxon will be efficient as a surrogate for another. In our case, the highly diverse and narrowly distributed invertebrates were more efficient as predictors than the less diverse and more broadly distributed vertebrates.

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Agricultural ecosystems and their associated business and government systems are diverse and varied. They range from farms, to input supply businesses, to marketing and government policy systems, among others. These systems are dynamic and responsive to fluctuations in climate. Skill in climate prediction offers considerable opportunities to managers via its potential to realise system improvements (i.e. increased food production and profit and/or reduced risks). Realising these opportunities, however, is not straightforward as the forecasting skill is imperfect and approaches to applying the existing skill to management issues have not been developed and tested extensively. While there has been much written about impacts of climate variability, there has been relatively little done in relation to applying knowledge of climate predictions to modify actions ahead of likely impacts. However, a considerable body of effort in various parts of the world is now being focused on this issue of applying climate predictions to improve agricultural systems. In this paper, we outline the basis for climate prediction, with emphasis on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and catalogue experiences at field, national and global scales in applying climate predictions to agriculture. These diverse experiences are synthesised to derive general lessons about approaches to applying climate prediction in agriculture. The case studies have been selected to represent a diversity of agricultural systems and scales of operation. They also represent the on-going activities of some of the key research and development groups in this field around the world. The case studies include applications at field/farm scale to dryland cropping systems in Australia, Zimbabwe, and Argentina. This spectrum covers resource-rich and resource-poor farming with motivations ranging from profit to food security. At national and global scale we consider possible applications of climate prediction in commodity forecasting (wheat in Australia) and examine implications on global wheat trade and price associated with global consequences of climate prediction. In cataloguing these experiences we note some general lessons. Foremost is the value of an interdisciplinary systems approach in connecting disciplinary Knowledge in a manner most suited to decision-makers. This approach often includes scenario analysis based oil simulation with credible models as a key aspect of the learning process. Interaction among researchers, analysts and decision-makers is vital in the development of effective applications all of the players learn. Issues associated with balance between information demand and supply as well as appreciation of awareness limitations of decision-makers, analysts, and scientists are highlighted. It is argued that understanding and communicating decision risks is one of the keys to successful applications of climate prediction. We consider that advances of the future will be made by better connecting agricultural scientists and practitioners with the science of climate prediction. Professions involved in decision making must take a proactive role in the development of climate forecasts if the design and use of climate predictions are to reach their full potential. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.