950 resultados para AFT Models for Crash Duration Survival Analysis
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The beta-Birnbaum-Saunders (Cordeiro and Lemonte, 2011) and Birnbaum-Saunders (Birnbaum and Saunders, 1969a) distributions have been used quite effectively to model failure times for materials subject to fatigue and lifetime data. We define the log-beta-Birnbaum-Saunders distribution by the logarithm of the beta-Birnbaum-Saunders distribution. Explicit expressions for its generating function and moments are derived. We propose a new log-beta-Birnbaum-Saunders regression model that can be applied to censored data and be used more effectively in survival analysis. We obtain the maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters for censored data and investigate influence diagnostics. The new location-scale regression model is modified for the possibility that long-term survivors may be presented in the data. Its usefulness is illustrated by means of two real data sets. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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Background: To investigate indocyanine green angiography (ICGA) findings in patients with long-standing Vogt-Koyanagi-Harada (VKH) disease and their correlation with disease activity on clinical examination as well as with systemic corticosteroid therapy. Methods: Twenty-eight patients (51 eyes) with long-standing (>= 6 months from disease onset) VKH disease whose treatment was tapered based only in clinical features were prospectively included at a single center in Brazil. All patients underwent standardized clinical evaluation, which included fundus photography, fluorescein angiography and ICGA. Clinical disease activity was determined based in the Standardization in Uveitis Nomenclature Working Group. Fisher exact test and logistic regression models were used for statistical analysis. Results: Disease-related choroidal inflammation on ICGA was observed in 72.5% (31 of 51 eyes). Angiographic findings suggestive of (choroidal and/or retinal) disease activity were not observed on FA. Clinically active disease based on clinical evaluation was observed in 41.2% (21 of 51 eyes). In these 21 eyes, disease-related choroidal inflammation on ICGA was observed in 76.2% (16 of 21 eyes); in the remaining eyes (without clinical active disease) disease-related choroidal inflammation on ICGA was observed in 70.0% (21 of 30 eyes). In respect to systemic corticosteroid therapy, 10 patients (18 of 51 eyes) were under treatment with prednisone. In these 10 (18 of 51 eyes) patients, disease-related choroidal inflammation on ICGA was observed in 83.3% (15 of 18 eyes); in the remaining patients (33 of 51 eyes) disease-related choroidal inflammation on ICGA was observed in 66.7% (22 of 33 eyes). Conclusion: ICGA findings suggestive of disease-related choroidal inflammation were observed in a considerable proportion of patients with long-standing VKH disease, independent of the inflammatory status of the disease on clinical examination or current use of systemic corticosteroid. Therefore, the current study reinforces the crucial role of ICGA to assist the management and treatment of patients with long-standing VKH disease.
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Background: The causes of death on long-term mortality after acute kidney injury (AKI) have not been well studied. The purpose of the study was to evaluate the role of comorbidities and the causes of death on the long-term mortality after AKI. Methodology/Principal Findings: We retrospectively studied 507 patients who experienced AKI in 2005-2006 and were discharged free from dialysis. In June 2008 (median: 21 months after AKI), we found that 193 (38%) patients had died. This mortality is much higher than the mortality of the population of Sao Paulo City, even after adjustment for age. A multiple survival analysis was performed using Cox proportional hazards regression model and showed that death was associated with Khan's index indicating high risk [adjusted hazard ratio 2.54 (1.38-4.66)], chronic liver disease [1.93 (1.15-3.22)], admission to non-surgical ward [1.85 (1.30-2.61)] and a second AKI episode during the same hospitalization [1.74 (1.12-2.71)]. The AKI severity evaluated either by the worst stage reached during AKI (P=0.20) or by the need for dialysis (P=0.12) was not associated with death. The causes of death were identified by a death certificate in 85% of the non-survivors. Among those who died from circulatory system diseases (the main cause of death), 59% had already suffered from hypertension, 34% from diabetes, 47% from heart failure, 38% from coronary disease, and 66% had a glomerular filtration rate <60 previous to the AKI episode. Among those who died from neoplasms, 79% already had the disease previously. Conclusions: Among AKI survivors who were discharged free from dialysis the increased long-term mortality was associated with their pre-existing chronic conditions and not with the severity of the AKI episode. These findings suggest that these survivors should have a medical follow-up after hospital discharge and that all efforts should be made to control their comorbidities.
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Abstract Background A large number of probabilistic models used in sequence analysis assign non-zero probability values to most input sequences. To decide when a given probability is sufficient the most common way is bayesian binary classification, where the probability of the model characterizing the sequence family of interest is compared to that of an alternative probability model. We can use as alternative model a null model. This is the scoring technique used by sequence analysis tools such as HMMER, SAM and INFERNAL. The most prevalent null models are position-independent residue distributions that include: the uniform distribution, genomic distribution, family-specific distribution and the target sequence distribution. This paper presents a study to evaluate the impact of the choice of a null model in the final result of classifications. In particular, we are interested in minimizing the number of false predictions in a classification. This is a crucial issue to reduce costs of biological validation. Results For all the tests, the target null model presented the lowest number of false positives, when using random sequences as a test. The study was performed in DNA sequences using GC content as the measure of content bias, but the results should be valid also for protein sequences. To broaden the application of the results, the study was performed using randomly generated sequences. Previous studies were performed on aminoacid sequences, using only one probabilistic model (HMM) and on a specific benchmark, and lack more general conclusions about the performance of null models. Finally, a benchmark test with P. falciparum confirmed these results. Conclusions Of the evaluated models the best suited for classification are the uniform model and the target model. However, the use of the uniform model presents a GC bias that can cause more false positives for candidate sequences with extreme compositional bias, a characteristic not described in previous studies. In these cases the target model is more dependable for biological validation due to its higher specificity.
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Background. A new classification system of human breast tumours based on the immunohistochemical characterization has been applied to mammary tumours of the female dog with the aim to verify its association with invasion and grade, and prognostic aid in veterinary medicine. Methods. Forty-five canine mammary carcinomas with a two-year post-mastectomy follow-up were selected from our database, and the following antibodies were applied: anti-cytokeratines 14, 5/6, oestrogen receptor (ER), progesterone receptor (PR), and ERB-B2. . The tumours were grouped for phenotype as: luminal-like (ER+ and/or PR+, CK14-, CK5/6-) type A (ERB-B2-), and B (ERB-B2+); basal-like (ER-, PR-, CK14+ and/or CK5/6+, ERB-B2-); ERB-B2 (ER-, PR-, CK14-, CK5/6-, ERB-B2+). Association with invasion, grade and histotypes were evaluated and Kaplan-Meier survival curves estimated, then compared by survival analysis. Results. Thirty-five cases with luminal pattern (ER+ and PR+) were subgrouped into 13 A type and 22 B type, if ERB-B2 positive or negative . Most luminal-like A and basal-like cases were grade 1 carcinomas, while the percentage of luminal B cases was higher in grade 2 and 3 (Pearson Chi-square P=0.009). No difference in the percentage of molecular subtypes was evidenced between simple and complex/mixed carcinomas (Pearson Chi-square P=0.47). No significant results were obtained by survival analysis, even if basal-like had a more favourable prognosis than luminal-like. Conclusion. The panel of antibodies identified only 3 groups (luminal-like A and B, and basal-like) in the dog. Even though canine mammary tumours may be a model of human breast cancer, the existence of the same types of carcinoma as in the woman need to be confirmed. Canine mammary carcinomas show high molecular heterogeneity, which would benefit from a classification based on molecular differences. However, by multivariate analysis, the molecular classification appears a variable with a dependent value if compared to invasion and grade that are independent, suggesting that, at present, caution should be used in the application of such a classification to the dog, in which invasion and grade supply the most important prognostic information.
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Dielectric Elastomers (DE) are incompressible dielectrics which can experience deviatoric (isochoric) finite deformations in response to applied large electric fields. Thanks to the strong electro-mechanical coupling, DE intrinsically offer great potentialities for conceiving novel solid-state mechatronic devices, in particular linear actuators, which are more integrated, lightweight, economic, silent, resilient and disposable than equivalent devices based on traditional technologies. Such systems may have a huge impact in applications where the traditional technology does not allow coping with the limits of weight or encumbrance, and with problems involving interaction with humans or unknown environments. Fields such as medicine, domotic, entertainment, aerospace and transportation may profit. For actuation usage, DE are typically shaped in thin films coated with compliant electrodes on both sides and piled one on the other to form a multilayered DE. DE-based Linear Actuators (DELA) are entirely constituted by polymeric materials and their overall performance is highly influenced by several interacting factors; firstly by the electromechanical properties of the film, secondly by the mechanical properties and geometry of the polymeric frame designed to support the film, and finally by the driving circuits and activation strategies. In the last decade, much effort has been focused in the devolvement of analytical and numerical models that could explain and predict the hyperelastic behavior of different types of DE materials. Nevertheless, at present, the use of DELA is limited. The main reasons are 1) the lack of quantitative and qualitative models of the actuator as a whole system 2) the lack of a simple and reliable design methodology. In this thesis, a new point of view in the study of DELA is presented which takes into account the interaction between the DE film and the film supporting frame. Hyperelastic models of the DE film are reported which are capable of modeling the DE and the compliant electrodes. The supporting frames are analyzed and designed as compliant mechanisms using pseudo-rigid body models and subsequent finite element analysis. A new design methodology is reported which optimize the actuator performances allowing to specifically choose its inherent stiffness. As a particular case, the methodology focuses on the design of constant force actuators. This class of actuators are an example of how the force control could be highly simplified. Three new DE actuator concepts are proposed which highlight the goodness of the proposed method.
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Recent reports showed that early-interim PET-scan is the only tool predicting treatment outcome in advanced-stage classical Hodgkin lymphoma (asCHL). We evaluated the prognostic impact of a series of immunohistochemical markers, mentioned in literature as prognostic factors, on tissue microarrays assembled from biopsies of 220 patients: STAT1, SAP, TOP2A, PCNA and CD20, both in neoplastic (HRSC) and microenvironment cells (MC); RRM2, MAD2, CDC2, BCL2, P53, BCL11A and EBER in HRSC; ALDH1A1, TIA-1, granzyme B, perforin, FOXP3, and PD-1 in MC. All patients had been treated with standard ABVD ± Rx therapy. Interim-PET after 2 ABVD courses was evaluated according to the criteria indicated by Gallamini in his study (Journal of Clinical Oncology, 2007). The survival analysis has been performed in a subset of 138 patients whose complete clinical information were available: the mean age was 33.3 years (14-79), the stage III-IVB in 98 and IIB in 40, and the mean follow-up 38.1 months (7.6-71.9). Histopathology review showed: NS-I 75, NS-II 22, MC 20, DL 3, and CHL/nos 18 cases. Interim-PET was positive in 30 patients, while treatment failure was recorded in 32. In univariate analysis the factors related to treatment outcome were BCL2 on HRSC (cut-off value 50%), STAT1/SAP on MC, and PET (Log-rank 6.9, 7.9 and 93.9 respectively). The combined expression of STAT1 and SAP was scored in three levels depending on the architectural pattern: score 0 for expression of both with a diffuse/rosetting pattern; score 1 for discordant combination of diffuse/rosetting and scattered patterns; score 2 for both markers with a scattered pattern; the 3y-PFS were 87.4%, 69.9% and 61.9% respectively. In multivariate analysis PET, BCL2 and STAT1/SAP remained significant (HR: 24.8, 4.6, 7.5 and 5.6, respectively; p<.01). The proposed model is able to predict treatment response in AsCHL, even if with a lower efficacy than PET. However, unlike PET, it can be applied upfront therapy.
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The thesis contributed to the volcanic hazard assessment through the reconstruction of some historical flank eruptions of Etna in order to obtain quantitative data (volumes, effusion rates, etc.) for characterizing the recent effusive activity, quantifying the impact on the territory and defining mitigation actions for reducing the volcanic risk as for example containment barriers. The reconstruction was based on a quantitative approach using data extracted from aerial photographs and topographic maps. The approach allows to obtain the temporal evolution of the lava flow field and estimating the Time Average Discharge Rate (TADR) by dividing the volume emplaced over a given time interval for the corresponding duration. The analysis concerned the 2001, 1981 and 1928 Etna eruptions. The choice of these events is linked to their impact on inhabited areas. The results of the analysis showed an extraordinarily high effusion rate for the 1981 and 1928 eruptions (over 600 m^3/s), unusual for Etna eruptions. For the 1981 Etna eruption an eruptive model was proposed to explain the high discharge rate. The obtained TADRs were used as input data for simulations of the propagation of the lava flows for evaluating different scenarios of volcanic hazard and analyse different mitigation actions against lava flow invasion. It was experienced how numerical simulations could be adopted for evaluating the effectiveness of barrier construction and for supporting their optimal design. In particular, the gabions were proposed as an improvement for the construction of barriers with respect to the earthen barriers. The gabion barriers allow to create easily modular structures reducing the handled volumes and the intervention time. For evaluating operational constrain an experimental test was carried out to test the filling of the gabions with volcanic rock and evaluating their deformation during transport and placement.
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Background: The recent increasing incidence of intrahepatic cholangiocellular carcinoma (ICC) in cirrhosis increased the problem of noninvasive differential diagnosis between ICC and hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) in cirrhosis. In literature there isn’t data about treatment and prognosis of ICC in cirrhosis. Aim: To investigate the role of the different imaging techniques in the diagnosis of ICC in cirrhosis; to analyze treatments and prognosis with particular attention to factors associated with survival. Methods: The data of 30 cirrhotic patients with ICC were retrospectively collected; patients were referred to Liver Units (S.Orsola-Malpighi and S.Matteo Hospitals) between 2005 and 2011. The results of contrast-enhanced ultrasound (CEUS), computed tomography (CT) and magnetic resonance (MR) were evaluated; the enhancement pattern at different imaging techniques were analysed, with particular attention to misdiagnosis of HCC. We evaluated the different treatments and survival of the study group and then we performed the survival analysis of different clinico-pathologic factors. Results: Twenty-five patients underwent CEUS, 27 CT and 10 MR. In 3 cases (12%) CEUS misdiagnosed ICC for HCC, in 7 cases (26%) CT misdiagnosed ICC and in 1 case (10%) MR misdiagnosed ICC. Patient were followed for a mean of 30 months (range:4-86), with a mean survival of 30 months. Twenty-four out of 30 patients were treated with curative approach, while the other 6 underwent TACE (n=4), radioembolization (n=1) or systemic treatment with Gemcitabine (n=1). The univariate analysis revealed that CA19-9 levels, surveillance program and nodule size were significantly related with survival. By multivariate analysis only nodule size £ 40mm was significant (p=0,004). Conclusion: Diagnosis of ICC in cirrhosis remains difficult because there isn’t a typical enhancement pattern and in some cases it cannot be distinguished from HCC by the different imaging techniques. The study of survival related factors shows that nodule size ≤ 40mm is correlated with improved survival.
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Proxy data are essential for the investigation of climate variability on time scales larger than the historical meteorological observation period. The potential value of a proxy depends on our ability to understand and quantify the physical processes that relate the corresponding climate parameter and the signal in the proxy archive. These processes can be explored under present-day conditions. In this thesis, both statistical and physical models are applied for their analysis, focusing on two specific types of proxies, lake sediment data and stable water isotopes.rnIn the first part of this work, the basis is established for statistically calibrating new proxies from lake sediments in western Germany. A comprehensive meteorological and hydrological data set is compiled and statistically analyzed. In this way, meteorological times series are identified that can be applied for the calibration of various climate proxies. A particular focus is laid on the investigation of extreme weather events, which have rarely been the objective of paleoclimate reconstructions so far. Subsequently, a concrete example of a proxy calibration is presented. Maxima in the quartz grain concentration from a lake sediment core are compared to recent windstorms. The latter are identified from the meteorological data with the help of a newly developed windstorm index, combining local measurements and reanalysis data. The statistical significance of the correlation between extreme windstorms and signals in the sediment is verified with the help of a Monte Carlo method. This correlation is fundamental for employing lake sediment data as a new proxy to reconstruct windstorm records of the geological past.rnThe second part of this thesis deals with the analysis and simulation of stable water isotopes in atmospheric vapor on daily time scales. In this way, a better understanding of the physical processes determining these isotope ratios can be obtained, which is an important prerequisite for the interpretation of isotope data from ice cores and the reconstruction of past temperature. In particular, the focus here is on the deuterium excess and its relation to the environmental conditions during evaporation of water from the ocean. As a basis for the diagnostic analysis and for evaluating the simulations, isotope measurements from Rehovot (Israel) are used, provided by the Weizmann Institute of Science. First, a Lagrangian moisture source diagnostic is employed in order to establish quantitative linkages between the measurements and the evaporation conditions of the vapor (and thus to calibrate the isotope signal). A strong negative correlation between relative humidity in the source regions and measured deuterium excess is found. On the contrary, sea surface temperature in the evaporation regions does not correlate well with deuterium excess. Although requiring confirmation by isotope data from different regions and longer time scales, this weak correlation might be of major importance for the reconstruction of moisture source temperatures from ice core data. Second, the Lagrangian source diagnostic is combined with a Craig-Gordon fractionation parameterization for the identified evaporation events in order to simulate the isotope ratios at Rehovot. In this way, the Craig-Gordon model can be directly evaluated with atmospheric isotope data, and better constraints for uncertain model parameters can be obtained. A comparison of the simulated deuterium excess with the measurements reveals that a much better agreement can be achieved using a wind speed independent formulation of the non-equilibrium fractionation factor instead of the classical parameterization introduced by Merlivat and Jouzel, which is widely applied in isotope GCMs. Finally, the first steps of the implementation of water isotope physics in the limited-area COSMO model are described, and an approach is outlined that allows to compare simulated isotope ratios to measurements in an event-based manner by using a water tagging technique. The good agreement between model results from several case studies and measurements at Rehovot demonstrates the applicability of the approach. Because the model can be run with high, potentially cloud-resolving spatial resolution, and because it contains sophisticated parameterizations of many atmospheric processes, a complete implementation of isotope physics will allow detailed, process-oriented studies of the complex variability of stable isotopes in atmospheric waters in future research.rn
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Systems Biology is an innovative way of doing biology recently raised in bio-informatics contexts, characterised by the study of biological systems as complex systems with a strong focus on the system level and on the interaction dimension. In other words, the objective is to understand biological systems as a whole, putting on the foreground not only the study of the individual parts as standalone parts, but also of their interaction and of the global properties that emerge at the system level by means of the interaction among the parts. This thesis focuses on the adoption of multi-agent systems (MAS) as a suitable paradigm for Systems Biology, for developing models and simulation of complex biological systems. Multi-agent system have been recently introduced in informatics context as a suitabe paradigm for modelling and engineering complex systems. Roughly speaking, a MAS can be conceived as a set of autonomous and interacting entities, called agents, situated in some kind of nvironment, where they fruitfully interact and coordinate so as to obtain a coherent global system behaviour. The claim of this work is that the general properties of MAS make them an effective approach for modelling and building simulations of complex biological systems, following the methodological principles identified by Systems Biology. In particular, the thesis focuses on cell populations as biological systems. In order to support the claim, the thesis introduces and describes (i) a MAS-based model conceived for modelling the dynamics of systems of cells interacting inside cell environment called niches. (ii) a computational tool, developed for implementing the models and executing the simulations. The tool is meant to work as a kind of virtual laboratory, on top of which kinds of virtual experiments can be performed, characterised by the definition and execution of specific models implemented as MASs, so as to support the validation, falsification and improvement of the models through the observation and analysis of the simulations. A hematopoietic stem cell system is taken as reference case study for formulating a specific model and executing virtual experiments.
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Objective: In South Africa, many HIV-infected patients experience delays in accessing antiretroviral therapy (ART). We examined pretreatment mortality and access to treatment in patients waiting for ART. Design: Cohort of HIV-infected patients assessed for ART eligibility at 36 facilities participating in the Comprehensive HIV and AIDS Management (CHAM) program in the Free State Province. Methods: Proportion of patients initiating ART, pre-ART mortality and risk factors associated with these outcomes were estimated using competing risks survival analysis. Results: Forty-four thousand, eight hundred and forty-four patients enrolled in CHAM between May 2004 and December 2007, of whom 22 083 (49.2%) were eligible for ART; pre-ART mortality was 53.2 per 100 person-years [95% confidence interval (CI) 51.8–54.7]. Median CD4 cell count at eligibility increased from 87 cells/ml in 2004 to 101 cells/ml in 2007. Two years after eligibility an estimated 67.7% (67.1–68.4%) of patients had started ART, and 26.2% (25.6–26.9%) died before starting ART. Among patients with CD4 cell counts below 25 cells/ml at eligibility, 48% died before ART and 51% initiated ART. Men were less likely to start treatment and more likely to die than women. Patients in rural clinics or clinics with low staffing levels had lower rates of starting treatment and higher mortality compared with patients in urban/peri-urban clinics, or better staffed clinics. Conclusions: Mortality is high in eligible patients waiting for ART in the Free State Province. The most immunocompromised patients had the lowest probability of starting ART and the highest risk of pre-ART death. Prioritization of these patients should reduce waiting times and pre-ART mortality.
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The aim of this study was to compare craniofacial morphology and soft tissue profiles in patients with complete bilateral cleft lip and palate at 9 years of age, treated in two European cleft centres with delayed hard palate closure but different treatment protocols. The cephalometric data of 83 consecutively treated patients were compared (Gothenburg, N=44; Nijmegen, N=39). In total, 18 hard tissue and 10 soft tissue landmarks were digitized by one operator. To determine the intra-observer reliability 20 cephalograms were digitized twice with a monthly interval. Paired t-test, Pearson correlation coefficients and multiple regression models were applied for statistical analysis. Hard and soft tissue data were superimposed using the Generalized Procrustes Analysis. In Nijmegen, the maxilla was protrusive for hard and soft tissue values (P=0.001, P=0.030, respectively) and the maxillary incisors were retroclined (P<0.001), influencing the nasolabial angle, which was increased in comparison with Gothenburg (P=0.004). In conclusion, both centres showed a favourable craniofacial form at 9-10 years of age, although there were significant differences in the maxillary prominence, the incisor inclination and soft tissue cephalometric values. Follow-up of these patients until facial growth has ceased, may elucidate components for outcome improvement.
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Hepatoblastoma (HB) is a rare malignant liver tumour found in infants. Many heterogenous histological tumour subtypes exist. Although survival rates have improved dramatically in recent years with the use of platinum-based chemotherapy, there still exists a subset of HB that does not respond to treatment. There are currently no tumour biomarkers in use and in this study we aim to evaluate potential biomarkers to aid identification of relapse cases that would otherwise be overlooked by current prognostication. This may identify patients that would benefit from more aggressive therapy and could improve overall survival rates. We used immunohistochemistry to analyse the expression of β-catenin, E-cadherin, Cyclin D1, Ki-67 and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) protein in tumours from 91 patients prospectively enroled into the SIOPEL 3 clinical trial. The relationship between these biomarkers and clinicopathologic features and patient survival were statistically analysed. We identified one biomarker, Cyclin D1, which has a correlation with mixed epithelial/mesenchymal HB approaching significance (P=0.07). Survival analysis using these markers has revealed two potential prognostic indicators; Cyclin D1 and Ki-67 (P=0.01, 0.01).
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In this longitudinal study, the craniofacial morphology and evaluated soft tissue profile changes, at 6 and 12 years of age in patients with complete bilateral cleft lip and palate (CBCLP) were compared. Lateral cephalograms from 148 patients with CBCLP, treated consecutively at three European cleft centers, Gothenburg (n (A) = 37), Nijmegen (n (B) = 26), and Oslo (n (C) = 85), were evaluated. Eighteen hard tissue and ten soft tissue landmarks were digitized. Paired t test, Pearson's correlation coefficients, and multiple regression models were applied for statistical analysis. ANOVA and Tukey-B, as a post hoc test, were used to evaluate the increments and compare centers. Hard and soft tissue data were superimposed using the generalized Procrustes analysis. For Nijmegen, the increments of the variables SNA, ANB, SN-NL, SN-ML, NL-ML, Snss, and Snpg were significantly different than the two other centers (p = 0.041 to <0.001). SNPg increments were significantly different between Nijmegen and Oslo (p = 0.002). The three cleft centers followed different treatment protocols, but the main differences in craniofacial morphology until 12 years of age were the growth pattern and the maxillary and upper incisor variables. Follow-up of these patients until facial growth has ceased, which may elucidate components for improving treatment outcome.