Validation and reclassification of MGAP and GAP in hospital settings using data from the Trauma Audit and Research Network.

BACKGROUND Recently, two simple clinical scores were published to predict survival in trauma patients. Both scores may successfully guide major trauma triage, but neither has been independently validated in a hospital setting. METHODS This is a cohort study with 30-day mortality as the primary outcome to validate two new trauma scores-Mechanism, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), Age, and Pressure (MGAP) score and GCS, Age and Pressure (GAP) score-using data from the UK Trauma Audit and Research Network. First, an assessment of discrimination, using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and calibration, comparing mortality rates with those originally published, were performed. Second, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, and likelihood ratios for prognostic score performance. Third, we propose new cutoffs for the risk categories. RESULTS A total of 79,807 adult (≥16 years) major trauma patients (2000-2010) were included; 5,474 (6.9%) died. Mean (SD) age was 51.5 (22.4) years, median GCS score was 15 (interquartile range, 15-15), and median Injury Severity Score (ISS) was 9 (interquartile range, 9-16). More than 50% of the patients had a low-risk GAP or MGAP score (1% mortality). With regard to discrimination, areas under the ROC curve were 87.2% for GAP score (95% confidence interval, 86.7-87.7) and 86.8% for MGAP score (95% confidence interval, 86.2-87.3). With regard to calibration, 2,390 (3.3%), 1,900 (28.5%), and 1,184 (72.2%) patients died in the low, medium, and high GAP risk categories, respectively. In the low- and medium-risk groups, these were almost double the previously published rates. For MGAP, 1,861 (2.8%), 1,455 (15.2%), and 2,158 (58.6%) patients died in the low-, medium-, and high-risk categories, consonant with results originally published. Reclassifying score point cutoffs improved likelihood ratios, sensitivity and specificity, as well as areas under the ROC curve. CONCLUSION We found both scores to be valid triage tools to stratify emergency department patients, according to their risk of death. MGAP calibrated better, but GAP slightly improved discrimination. The newly proposed cutoffs better differentiate risk classification and may therefore facilitate hospital resource allocation. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE Prognostic study, level II.

Effect of standardized training on the reliability of the Cochrane risk of bias assessment tool: a study protocol

BACKGROUND The Cochrane risk of bias (RoB) tool has been widely embraced by the systematic review community, but several studies have reported that its reliability is low. We aim to investigate whether training of raters, including objective and standardized instructions on how to assess risk of bias, can improve the reliability of this tool. We describe the methods that will be used in this investigation and present an intensive standardized training package for risk of bias assessment that could be used by contributors to the Cochrane Collaboration and other reviewers. METHODS/DESIGN This is a pilot study. We will first perform a systematic literature review to identify randomized clinical trials (RCTs) that will be used for risk of bias assessment. Using the identified RCTs, we will then do a randomized experiment, where raters will be allocated to two different training schemes: minimal training and intensive standardized training. We will calculate the chance-corrected weighted Kappa with 95% confidence intervals to quantify within- and between-group Kappa agreement for each of the domains of the risk of bias tool. To calculate between-group Kappa agreement, we will use risk of bias assessments from pairs of raters after resolution of disagreements. Between-group Kappa agreement will quantify the agreement between the risk of bias assessment of raters in the training groups and the risk of bias assessment of experienced raters. To compare agreement of raters under different training conditions, we will calculate differences between Kappa values with 95% confidence intervals. DISCUSSION This study will investigate whether the reliability of the risk of bias tool can be improved by training raters using standardized instructions for risk of bias assessment. One group of inexperienced raters will receive intensive training on risk of bias assessment and the other will receive minimal training. By including a control group with minimal training, we will attempt to mimic what many review authors commonly have to do, that is-conduct risk of bias assessment in RCTs without much formal training or standardized instructions. If our results indicate that an intense standardized training does improve the reliability of the RoB tool, our study is likely to help improve the quality of risk of bias assessments, which is a central component of evidence synthesis.

Work values as predictors of entrepreneurial career intentions: A longitudinal analysis of gender effects.

Purpose – Work values are an important characteristic to understand gender differences in career intentions, but how gender affects the relationship between values and career intentions is not well established. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether gender moderates the effects of work values on level and change of entrepreneurial intentions (EI). Design/methodology/approach – In total, 218 German university students were sampled regarding work values and with EI assessed three times over the course of 12 months. Data were analysed with latent growth modelling. Findings – Self‐enhancement and openness to change values predicted higher levels and conservation values lower levels of EI. Gender moderated the effects of enhancement and conservation values on change in EI. Research limitations/implications – The authors relied on self‐reported measures and the sample was restricted to university students. Future research needs to verify to what extent these results generalize to other samples and different career fields, such as science or nursing. Practical implications – The results imply that men and women are interested in an entrepreneurial career based on the same work values but that values have different effects for men and women regarding individual changes in EI. The results suggest that the prototypical work values of a career domain seem important regarding increasing the career intent for the gender that is underrepresented in that domain. Originality/value – The results enhance understanding of how gender affects the relation of work values and a specific career intention, such as entrepreneurship.

A comparison of apical root resorption after orthodontic treatment with surgical exposure and traction of maxillary impacted canines versus that without impactions.

SUMMARY BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES Orthodontic management of maxillary canine impaction (MCI), including forced eruption, may result in significant root resorption; however, the association between MCI and orthodontically induced root resorption (OIRR) is not yet sufficiently established. The purpose of this retrospective cohort study was to comparatively evaluate the severity of OIRR of maxillary incisors in orthodontically treated patients with MCI. Additionally, impaction characteristics were associated with OIRR severity. SUBJECTS AND METHODS The sample comprised 48 patients undergoing fixed-appliance treatment-24 with unilateral/bilateral MCI and 24 matched controls without impaction. OIRR was calculated using pre- and post-operative panoramic tomograms. The orientation of eruption path, height, sector location, and follicle/tooth ratio of the impacted canine were also recorded. Mann-Whitney U-test and univariate and multivariate linear mixed models were used to test for the associations of interest. RESULTS Maxillary central left incisor underwent more OIRR in the impaction group (mean difference = 0.58mm, P = 0.04). Overall, the impaction group had 0.38mm more OIRR compared to the control (95% confidence interval, CI: 0.03, 0.74; P = 0.04). However, multivariate analysis demonstrated no difference in the amount of OIRR between impaction and non-impaction groups overall. A positive association between OIRR and initial root length was observed (95% CI: 0.08, 0.27; P < 0.001). The severity of canine impaction was not found to be a significant predictor of OIRR. LIMITATIONS This study was a retrospective study and used panoramic tomograms for OIRR measurements. CONCLUSIONS This study indicates that MCI is a weak OIRR predictor. Interpretation of the results needs caution due to the observational nature of the present study.

Improving the dependability of research in personality and social psychology: Recommendations for research and educational practice

In this article, the Society for Personality and Social Psychology (SPSP) Task Force on Publication and Research Practices offers a brief statistical primer and recommendations for improving the dependability of research. Recommendations for research practice include (a) describing and addressing the choice of N (sample size) and consequent issues of statistical power, (b) reporting effect sizes and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), (c) avoiding “questionable research practices” that can inflate the probability of Type I error, (d) making available research materials necessary to replicate reported results, (e) adhering to SPSP’s data sharing policy, (f) encouraging publication of high-quality replication studies, and (g) maintaining flexibility and openness to alternative standards and methods. Recommendations for educational practice include (a) encouraging a culture of “getting it right,” (b) teaching and encouraging transparency of data reporting, (c) improving methodological instruction, and (d) modeling sound science and supporting junior researchers who seek to “get it right.”

Using Informatics and the Electronic Medical Record to Describe Antimicrobial Use in the Clinical Management of Diarrhea Cases at 12 Companion Animal Practices

Antimicrobial drugs may be used to treat diarrheal illness in companion animals. It is important to monitor antimicrobial use to better understand trends and patterns in antimicrobial resistance. There is no monitoring of antimicrobial use in companion animals in Canada. To explore how the use of electronic medical records could contribute to the ongoing, systematic collection of antimicrobial use data in companion animals, anonymized electronic medical records were extracted from 12 participating companion animal practices and warehoused at the University of Calgary. We used the pre-diagnostic, clinical features of diarrhea as the case definition in this study. Using text-mining technologies, cases of diarrhea were described by each of the following variables: diagnostic laboratory tests performed, the etiological diagnosis and antimicrobial therapies. The ability of the text miner to accurately describe the cases for each of the variables was evaluated. It could not reliably classify cases in terms of diagnostic tests or etiological diagnosis; a manual review of a random sample of 500 diarrhea cases determined that 88/500 (17.6%) of the target cases underwent diagnostic testing of which 36/88 (40.9%) had an etiological diagnosis. Text mining, compared to a human reviewer, could accurately identify cases that had been treated with antimicrobials with high sensitivity (92%, 95% confidence interval, 88.1%-95.4%) and specificity (85%, 95% confidence interval, 80.2%-89.1%). Overall, 7400/15,928 (46.5%) of pets presenting with diarrhea were treated with antimicrobials. Some temporal trends and patterns of the antimicrobial use are described. The results from this study suggest that informatics and the electronic medical records could be useful for monitoring trends in antimicrobial use.

Risk factors for potentially avoidable readmissions due to end-of-life care issues

BACKGROUND Repeated hospitalizations are frequent toward the end of life, where each admission should be an opportunity to initiate advance-care planning to high-risk patients. OBJECTIVE To identify the risk factors for having a 30-day potentially avoidable readmission due to end-of-life care issues among all medical patients. DESIGN Nested case-control study. SETTING/PATIENTS All 10,275 consecutive discharges from any medical service of an academic tertiary medical center in Boston, Massachusetts between July 1, 2009 and June 30, 2010. MEASUREMENTS A random sample of all the potentially avoidable 30-day readmissions was independently reviewed by 9 trained physicians to identify the ones due to end-of-life issues. RESULTS Among 534, 30-day potentially avoidable readmission cases reviewed, 80 (15%) were due to an end-of-life care issue. In multivariable analysis, the following risk factors were significantly associated with a 30-day potentially avoidable readmission due to end-of-life care issues: number of admissions in the previous 12 months (odds ratio [OR]: 1.10 per admission, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.02-1.20), neoplasm (OR: 5.60, 95% CI: 2.85-10.98), opiate medications at discharge (OR: 2.29, 95% CI: 1.29-4.07), Elixhauser comorbidity index (OR: 1.16 per 5-point increase, 95% CI: 1.10-1.22). The discrimination of the model (C statistic) was 0.85. CONCLUSIONS In a medical population, we identified 4 main risk factors that were significantly associated with 30-day potentially avoidable readmission due to end-of-life care issues, producing a model with very good to excellent discrimination. Patients with these risk factors might benefit from palliative care consultation prior to discharge in order to improve end-of-life care and possibly reduce unnecessary rehospitalizations.

Relationship of vasodilator-induced changes in myocardial oxygenation with the severity of coronary artery stenosis: a study using oxygenation-sensitive cardiovascular magnetic resonance

Aims To explore the impact of the functional severity of coronary artery stenosis on changes in myocardial oxygenation during pharmacological vasodilation, using oxygenation-sensitive cardiovascular magnetic resonance (OS-CMR) imaging and invasive fractional flow reserve (FFR). An FFR is considered a standard of reference for assessing haemodynamic relevance of coronary artery stenosis; yet, the relationship of FFR to changes in myocardial oxygenation during vasodilator stress and thus to an objective marker for ischaemia on the tissue level is not well understood. Methods and results We prospectively recruited 64 patients with suspected/known coronary artery disease undergoing invasive angiography. The FFR was performed in intermediate coronary artery stenosis. OS-CMR images were acquired using a T2*-sensitive sequence before and after adenosine-induced vasodilation, with myocardial segments matched to angiography. Very strict image quality criteria were defined to ensure the validity of results. The FFR was performed in 37 patients. Because of the strict image quality criteria, 41% of segments had to be excluded, leaving 29/64 patients for the blinded OS-CMR analysis. Coronary territories with an associated FFR of <0.80 showed a lack of increase in myocardial oxygenation [mean signal intensity (ΔSI) −0.49%; 95% confidence interval (CI) −3.78 to 2.78 vs. +7.30%; 95% CI 4.08 to 10.64; P < 0.001]. An FFR of <0.54 best predicted a complete lack of a vasodilator-induced oxygenation increase (sensitivity 71% and specificity 75%). An OS-CMR ΔSI <4.78% identified an FFR of <0.8 with a sensitivity of 86% and specificity of 92%. Conclusion An FFR of <0.80 is associated with a lack of an adenosine-inducible increase in oxygenation of the dependent coronary territory, while a complete lack of such an increase was best predicted by an FFR of <0.54. Further studies are warranted to identify clinically meaningful cut-off values for FFR measurements and to assess the utility of OS-CMR as an alternative clinical tool for assessing the functional relevance of coronary artery stenosis.

Diagnostic confidence and image quality of CT pulmonary angiography at 100 kVp in overweight and obese patients.

AIM To compare image quality and diagnostic confidence of 100 kVp CT pulmonary angiography (CTPA) in patients with body weights (BWs) below and above 100kg. MATERIALS AND METHODS The present retrospective study comprised 216 patients (BWs of 75-99kg, 114 patients; 100-125kg, 88 patients; >125kg, 14 patients), who received 100 kVp CTPA to exclude pulmonary embolism. The attenuation was measured and the contrast-to-noise ratio (CNR) was calculated in the pulmonary trunk. Size-specific dose estimates (SSDEs) were evaluated. Three blinded radiologists rated subjective image quality and diagnostic confidence. Results between the BW groups and between three body mass index (BMI) groups (BMI <25kg/m(2), BMI = 25-29.9kg/m(2), and BMI ≥30kg/m(2), i.e., normal weight, overweight, and obese patients) were compared using the Kruskal-Wallis test. RESULTS Vessel attenuation was higher and SDDE was lower in the 75-99kg group than at higher BWs (p-values between <0.001 and 0.03), with no difference between the 100-125 and >125kg groups (p = 0.892 and 1). Subjective image quality and diagnostic confidence were not different among the BW groups (p = 0.225 and 1). CNR was lower (p < 0.006) in obese patients than in normal weight or overweight subjects. Diagnostic confidence was not different in the BMI groups (p = 0.105). CONCLUSION CTPA at 100 kVp tube voltage can be used in patients weighing up to 125kg with no significant deterioration of subjective image quality and confidence. The applicability of 100 kVp in the 125-150kg BW range needs further testing in larger collectives.

Search for supersymmetry in events with large missing transverse momentum, jets, and at least one tau lepton in 20 fb⁻¹ of √s= 8 TeV proton-proton collision data with the ATLAS detector

A search for supersymmetry (SUSY) in events with large missing transverse momentum, jets, at least one hadronically decaying tau lepton and zero or one additional light leptons (electron/muon), has been performed using 20.3 fb−1 of proton-proton collision data at √s = 8TeV recorded with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. No excess above the Standard Model background expectation is observed in the various signal regions and 95% confidence level upper limits on the visible cross section for new phenomena are set. The results of the analysis are interpreted in several SUSY scenarios, significantly extending previous limits obtained in the same final states. In the framework of minimal gauge-mediated SUSY breaking models, values of the SUSY breaking scale ʌ below 63TeV are excluded, independently of tan β. Exclusion limits are also derived for an mSUGRA/CMSSM model, in both the R-parity-conserving and R-parity-violating case. A further interpretation is presented in a framework of natural gauge mediation, in which the gluino is assumed to be the only light coloured sparticle and gluino masses below 1090GeV are excluded.

Echinococcus multilocularis Detection in Live Eurasian Beavers (Castor fiber) Using a Combination of Laparoscopy and Abdominal Ultrasound under Field Conditions.

Echinococcus multilocularis is an important pathogenic zoonotic parasite of health concern, though absent in the United Kingdom. Eurasian beavers (Castor fiber) may act as a rare intermediate host, and so unscreened wild caught individuals may pose a potential risk of introducing this parasite to disease-free countries through translocation programs. There is currently no single definitive ante-mortem diagnostic test in intermediate hosts. An effective non-lethal diagnostic, feasible under field condition would be helpful to minimise parasite establishment risk, where indiscriminate culling is to be avoided. This study screened live beavers (captive, n = 18 or wild-trapped in Scotland, n = 12) and beaver cadavers (wild Scotland, n = 4 or Bavaria, n = 11), for the presence of E. multilocularis. Ultrasonography in combination with minimally invasive surgical examination of the abdomen by laparoscopy was viable under field conditions for real-time evaluation in beavers. Laparoscopy alone does not allow the operator to visualize the parenchyma of organs such as the liver, or inside the lumen of the gastrointestinal tract, hence the advantage of its combination with abdominal ultrasonography. All live beavers and Scottish cadavers were largely unremarkable in their haematology and serum biochemistry with no values suspicious for liver pathology or potentially indicative of E. multilocularis infection. This correlated well with ultrasound, laparoscopy, and immunoblotting, which were unremarkable in these individuals. Two wild Bavarian individuals were suspected E. multilocularis positive at post-mortem, through the presence of hepatic cysts. Sensitivity and specificity of a combination of laparoscopy and abdominal ultrasonography in the detection of parasitic liver cyst lesions was 100% in the subset of cadavers (95%Confidence Intervals 34.24-100%, and 86.7-100% respectively). For abdominal ultrasonography alone sensitivity was only 50% (95%CI 9.5-90.6%), with specificity being 100% (95%CI 79.2-100%). For laparoscopy alone sensitivity was 100% (95% CI 34.2-100%), with specificity also being 100% (95% CI 77.2-100%). Further immunoblotting, PCR and histopathological examination revealed one individual positive for E. multilocularis, whilst the other individual was positive for Taenia martis.

Variation in treatment strategies of Swiss general practitioners for subclinical hypothyroidism in older adults.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY As the best management of subclinical hypothyroidism is controversial, we aimed to assess variations in treatment strategies depending on different Swiss regions, physician and patient characteristics. METHODS We performed a case-based survey among general practitioners (GPs) in different Swiss regions, which consisted of eight hypothetical cases presenting a female patient with subclinical hypothyroidism and nonspecific complaints differing by age, vitality status and thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) concentration. RESULTS A total of 262 GPs participated in the survey. There was considerable variation in the levothyroxine starting dose chosen by GPs, ranging from 25 µg to 100 µg. Across the Swiss regions, GPs in the Bern region were significantly more inclined to treat, with a higher probability of initiating treatment (60%, p = 0.01) and higher mean starting doses (45 µg, p <0.01) compared with the French-speaking region (44%, 36 µg); the Zurich region had intermediate values (52%, 39 µg). We found no association between treatment rate and other physician characteristics. GPs were more reluctant to initiate treatment in 85-year-old than in 70-year-old women (odds ratio [OR] 0.77, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.63-0.94), and more likely to treat women with a TSH of 15 mU/l than those with a TSH of 6mU/l (OR 8.71, 95% CI 6.21-12.20). CONCLUSIONS There are strong variations in treatment strategies for elderly patients with subclinical hypothyroidism across different Swiss regions, including use of higher starting doses than the recommended 25 µg in the Swiss guidelines, which recommend a starting dose of 25 µg. These variations likely reflect the current uncertainty about the benefits of treatment, which arise from the current lack of evidence from adequately powered clinical trials.

THEODORE, a two-step heating system for the EC/OC determination of radiocarbon (14C) in the environment

Measurements of 14C in the organic carbon (OC) and elemental carbon (EC) fractions, respectively, of fine aerosol particles bear the potential to apportion anthropogenic and biogenic emission sources. For this purpose, the system THEODORE (two-step heating system for the EC/OC determination of radiocarbon in the environment) was developed. In this device, OC and EC are transformed into carbon dioxide in a stream of oxygen at 340 and 650 �C, respectively, and reduced to filamentous carbon. This is the target material for subsequent accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) 14C measurements, which were performed on sub-milligram carbon samples at the PSI/ETH compact 500 kV AMS system. Quality assurance measurements of SRM 1649a, Urban Dust, yielded a fraction of modern fM in total carbon (TC) of 0.522 ±0.018 (n ¼ 5, 95% confidence level) in agreement with reported values. The results for OC and EC are 0.70± 0.05 (n ¼ 3) and 0.066 ± 0.020 (n ¼ 4), respectively.

Detection of muscle wasting in patients with chronic heart failure using C-terminal agrin fragment: results from the Studies Investigating Co-morbidities Aggravating Heart Failure (SICA-HF).

AIMS Skeletal muscle wasting affects 20% of patients with chronic heart failure and has serious implications for their activities of daily living. Assessment of muscle wasting is technically challenging. C-terminal agrin-fragment (CAF), a breakdown product of the synaptically located protein agrin, has shown early promise as biomarker of muscle wasting. We sought to investigate the diagnostic properties of CAF in muscle wasting among patients with heart failure. METHODS AND RESULTS We assessed serum CAF levels in 196 patients who participated in the Studies Investigating Co-morbidities Aggravating Heart Failure (SICA-HF). Muscle wasting was identified using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DEXA) in 38 patients (19.4%). Patients with muscle wasting demonstrated higher CAF values than those without (125.1 ± 59.5 pmol/L vs. 103.8 ± 42.9 pmol/L, P = 0.01). Using receiver operating characteristics (ROC), we calculated the optimal CAF value to identify patients with muscle wasting as >87.5 pmol/L, which had a sensitivity of 78.9% and a specificity of 43.7%. The area under the ROC curve was 0.63 (95% confidence interval 0.56-0.70). Using simple regression, we found that serum CAF was associated with handgrip (R = - 0.17, P = 0.03) and quadriceps strength (R = - 0.31, P < 0.0001), peak oxygen consumption (R = - 0.5, P < 0.0001), 6-min walk distance (R = - 0.32, P < 0.0001), and gait speed (R = - 0.2, P = 0.001), as well as with parameters of kidney and liver function, iron metabolism and storage. CONCLUSION CAF shows good sensitivity for the detection of skeletal muscle wasting in patients with heart failure. Its assessment may be useful to identify patients who should undergo additional testing, such as detailed body composition analysis. As no other biomarker is currently available, further investigation is warranted.

Bone mineral density (BMD) and vertebral trabecular bone score (TBS) for the identification of elderly women at high risk for fracture: the SEMOF cohort study

PURPOSE To determine the predictive value of the vertebral trabecular bone score (TBS) alone or in addition to bone mineral density (BMD) with regard to fracture risk. METHODS Retrospective analysis of the relative contribution of BMD [measured at the femoral neck (FN), total hip (TH), and lumbar spine (LS)] and TBS with regard to the risk of incident clinical fractures in a representative cohort of elderly post-menopausal women previously participating in the Swiss Evaluation of the Methods of Measurement of Osteoporotic Fracture Risk study. RESULTS Complete datasets were available for 556 of 701 women (79 %). Mean age 76.1 years, LS BMD 0.863 g/cm(2), and TBS 1.195. LS BMD and LS TBS were moderately correlated (r (2) = 0.25). After a mean of 2.7 ± 0.8 years of follow-up, the incidence of fragility fractures was 9.4 %. Age- and BMI-adjusted hazard ratios per standard deviation decrease (95 % confidence intervals) were 1.58 (1.16-2.16), 1.77 (1.31-2.39), and 1.59 (1.21-2.09) for LS, FN, and TH BMD, respectively, and 2.01 (1.54-2.63) for TBS. Whereas 58 and 60 % of fragility fractures occurred in women with BMD T score ≤-2.5 and a TBS <1.150, respectively, combining these two thresholds identified 77 % of all women with an osteoporotic fracture. CONCLUSIONS Lumbar spine TBS alone or in combination with BMD predicted incident clinical fracture risk in a representative population-based sample of elderly post-menopausal women.