Near-real-time service provision during effusive crises at Etna and Stromboli: basis and implementation of satellite-based IR operations

Using the NEODAAS-Dundee AVHRR receiving station (Scotland), NEODAAS-Plymouth can provide calibrated brightness temperature data to end users or interim users in near-real time. Between 2000 and 2009 these data were used to undertake volcano hot spot detection, reporting and time-average discharge rate dissemination during effusive crises at Mount Etna and Stromboli (Italy). Data were passed via FTP, within an hour of image generation, to the hot spot detection system maintained at Hawaii Institute of Geophysics and Planetology (HIGP, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, USA). Final product generation and quality control were completed manually at HIGP once a day, so as to provide information to onsite monitoring agencies for their incorporation into daily reporting duties to Italian Civil Protection. We here describe the processing and dissemination chain, which was designed so as to provide timely, useable, quality-controlled and relevant information for ‘one voice’ reporting by the responsible monitoring agencies.

Near-real-time service provision during effusive crises at Etna and Stromboli: basis and implementation of satellite-based IR operations

Using the NEODAAS-Dundee AVHRR receiving station (Scotland), NEODAAS-Plymouth can provide calibrated brightness temperature data to end users or interim users in near-real time. Between 2000 and 2009 these data were used to undertake volcano hot spot detection, reporting and time-average discharge rate dissemination during effusive crises at Mount Etna and Stromboli (Italy). Data were passed via FTP, within an hour of image generation, to the hot spot detection system maintained at Hawaii Institute of Geophysics and Planetology (HIGP, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, USA). Final product generation and quality control were completed manually at HIGP once a day, so as to provide information to onsite monitoring agencies for their incorporation into daily reporting duties to Italian Civil Protection. We here describe the processing and dissemination chain, which was designed so as to provide timely, useable, quality-controlled and relevant information for ‘one voice’ reporting by the responsible monitoring agencies.

Radiological protection and the exposure of animals as patients in veterinary medicine

It is apparent that most of the techniques that make use of ionising radiation in human medical practices are now being applied in veterinary medicine. Steps are being taken by the IAEA to provide guidance for humans involved in such practices, but there appears to be no international initiative that considers the protection or welfare of the animal as a patient. There is therefore a risk that the deliberate exposure of an animal, particularly in the therapeutic application of radiation, could do more harm than good. In the light of recent developments in dosimetric modelling and the application of known effects of radiation on different types of animals, for the purposes of the protection of biota in an environmental context, it is argued that it would be sensible now to start a serious consideration of this issue. Some suggestions are made with regard to a number of areas that could be considered further, both specifically and with regard to the field of radiological protection as a whole.

Radiological protection and the exposure of animals as patients in veterinary medicine

It is apparent that most of the techniques that make use of ionising radiation in human medical practices are now being applied in veterinary medicine. Steps are being taken by the IAEA to provide guidance for humans involved in such practices, but there appears to be no international initiative that considers the protection or welfare of the animal as a patient. There is therefore a risk that the deliberate exposure of an animal, particularly in the therapeutic application of radiation, could do more harm than good. In the light of recent developments in dosimetric modelling and the application of known effects of radiation on different types of animals, for the purposes of the protection of biota in an environmental context, it is argued that it would be sensible now to start a serious consideration of this issue. Some suggestions are made with regard to a number of areas that could be considered further, both specifically and with regard to the field of radiological protection as a whole.

Exploring the joint compositional variability of major components and trace elements in the Tellus soil geochemistry survey (Northern Ireland)

The complexity of modern geochemical data sets is increasing in several aspects (number of available samples, number of elements measured, number of matrices analysed, geological-environmental variability covered, etc), hence it is becoming increasingly necessary to apply statistical methods to elucidate their structure. This paper presents an exploratory analysis of one such complex data set, the Tellus geochemical soil survey of Northern Ireland (NI). This exploratory analysis is based on one of the most fundamental exploratory tools, principal component analysis (PCA) and its graphical representation as a biplot, albeit in several variations: the set of elements included (only major oxides vs. all observed elements), the prior transformation applied to the data (none, a standardization or a logratio transformation) and the way the covariance matrix between components is estimated (classical estimation vs. robust estimation). Results show that a log-ratio PCA (robust or classical) of all available elements is the most powerful exploratory setting, providing the following insights: the first two processes controlling the whole geochemical variation in NI soils are peat coverage and a contrast between “mafic” and “felsic” background lithologies; peat covered areas are detected as outliers by a robust analysis, and can be then filtered out if required for further modelling; and peat coverage intensity can be quantified with the %Br in the subcomposition (Br, Rb, Ni).

Climate change and the long-term viability of the World’s busiest heavy haul ice road

Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and sub-Arctic infrastructure dependent on maintaining low temperatures for structural integrity. This is the case for the economically important Tibbitt to Contwoyto Winter Road (TCWR)—the world’s busiest heavy haul ice road, spanning 400 km across mostly frozen lakes within the Northwest Territories of Canada. In this study, future climate scenarios are developed for the region using statistical downscaling methods. In addition, changes in lake ice thickness are projected based on historical relationships between measured ice thickness and air temperatures. These projections are used to infer the theoretical operational dates of the TCWR based on weight limits for trucks on the ice. Results across three climate models driven by four RCPs reveal a considerable warming trend over the coming decades. Projected changes in ice thickness reveal a trend towards thinner lake ice and a reduced time window when lake ice is at sufficient thickness to support trucks on the ice road, driven by increasing future temperatures. Given the uncertainties inherent in climate modelling and the resultant projections, caution should be exercised in interpreting the magnitude of these scenarios. More certain is the direction of change, with a clear trend towards winter warming that will reduce the operation time window of the TCWR. This illustrates the need for planners and policymakers to consider future changes in climate when planning annual haulage along the TCWR.

MODERN SPORT COACHING AND THE LAW: IMPLICATIONS FOR COACH EDUCATION

Introduction
The intersection between the law of negligence and sport coaching in the UK is a developing area (Partington, 2014; Kevan, 2005). Crucially, since the law of negligence may be regarded as generally similar everywhere (Magnus, 2006), with the predominance of volunteer coaches in the UK reflective of the majority of countries in the world (Duffy et al., 2011), a detailed scrutiny of this relationship from the perspective of the coach uncovers important implications for coach education beyond this jurisdiction.  
Argumentation
Fulfilment of the legal duty of discharging reasonable care may be regarded as consistent with the ethical obligation not to expose athletes to unreasonable risks of injury (Mitten, 2013). More specifically, any ‘profession’ requiring ‘special skill or competence’ (Bolam v Friern Hospital Management Committee [1957] 1 WLR 582), including the coaching of sport (e.g., Davenport v Farrow [2010] EWHC 550), requires a higher standard of care to be displayed than would be expected of the ordinary reasonable person (Lunney & Oliphant, 2013; Jones & Dugdale, 2010). For instance, volunteer coaches with no formal qualifications (e.g., Fowles v Bedfordshire County Council [1996] ELR 51) would be judged by this benchmark of professional liability (Powell & Stewart, 2012). Further, as the principles of coaching are constantly assessed and revised (Cassidy et al., 2009; Taylor & Garratt, 2010), so too is the legal standard of care required of coaches (Powell & Stewart, 2012). Problematically, ethical concerns may include coaches being unwilling to increase knowledge, abusive treatment of players and incompetence/inexperience (Haney et al., 1998). These factors accentuate coaches’ exposure to civil liability.
Implications
It is imperative that coaches have an awareness of this emerging intersection and develop a ‘proactive risk assessment lens’ (Hartley, 2010). In addition to supporting the professionalisation of sport coaching, coach education/CPD focused on the legal and ethical aspects of coaching (Duffy et al., 2011; Telfer, 2010; Haney et al., 1998) would enhance the safety and welfare of performers, safeguard coaches from litigation risk, and potentially improve all levels of coaching (Partington, 2014). Interestingly, there is evidence to suggest a demand from coaches for more training on health and safety issues, including risk management and (ir)responsible coaching (Stirling et al., 2012). Accordingly, critical examination of the issue of negligent coaching would inform coach education by: enabling the modelling and sharing of best practice; unpacking important ethical concerns; and, further informing the classification of coaching as a ‘profession’.

Model reduction for nonlinear aerodynamics and aeroelasticity using a Discrete Empirical Interpolation Method

A novel surrogate model is proposed in lieu of Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) solvers, for fast nonlinear aerodynamic and aeroelastic modeling. A nonlinear function is identified on selected interpolation points by
a discrete empirical interpolation method (DEIM). The flow field is then reconstructed using a least square approximation of the flow modes extracted
by proper orthogonal decomposition (POD). The aeroelastic reduce order
model (ROM) is completed by introducing a nonlinear mapping function
between displacements and the DEIM points. The proposed model is investigated to predict the aerodynamic forces due to forced motions using
a N ACA 0012 airfoil undergoing a prescribed pitching oscillation. To investigate aeroelastic problems at transonic conditions, a pitch/plunge airfoil
and a cropped delta wing aeroelastic models are built using linear structural models. The presence of shock-waves triggers the appearance of limit
cycle oscillations (LCO), which the model is able to predict. For all cases
tested, the new ROM shows the ability to replicate the nonlinear aerodynamic forces, structural displacements and reconstruct the complete flow
field with sufficient accuracy at a fraction of the cost of full order CFD
model.

New methods for movement technique development in cross-country skiing using mathematical models and simulation

This Licentiate Thesis is devoted to the presentation and discussion of some new contributions in applied mathematics directed towards scientific computing in sports engineering. It considers inverse problems of biomechanical simulations with rigid body musculoskeletal systems especially in cross-country skiing. This is a contrast to the main research on cross-country skiing biomechanics, which is based mainly on experimental testing alone. The thesis consists of an introduction and five papers. The introduction motivates the context of the papers and puts them into a more general framework. Two papers (D and E) consider studies of real questions in cross-country skiing, which are modelled and simulated. The results give some interesting indications, concerning these challenging questions, which can be used as a basis for further research. However, the measurements are not accurate enough to give the final answers. Paper C is a simulation study which is more extensive than paper D and E, and is compared to electromyography measurements in the literature. Validation in biomechanical simulations is difficult and reducing mathematical errors is one way of reaching closer to more realistic results. Paper A examines well-posedness for forward dynamics with full muscle dynamics. Moreover, paper B is a technical report which describes the problem formulation and mathematical models and simulation from paper A in more detail. Our new modelling together with the simulations enable new possibilities. This is similar to simulations of applications in other engineering fields, and need in the same way be handled with care in order to achieve reliable results. The results in this thesis indicate that it can be very useful to use mathematical modelling and numerical simulations when describing cross-country skiing biomechanics. Hence, this thesis contributes to the possibility of beginning to use and develop such modelling and simulation techniques also in this context.

Herd management and livestock productivity in the Altai region of Western Mongolia

This thesis analyses the influence of qualitative and quantitative herbage production on seasonal rangelands, and of herd and pasture use strategies on feed intake, body mass development and reproductive performance of sheep and goats in the Altai mountain region of Bulgan county (soum) in Khovd province (aimag). This westernmost county of Mongolia is characterized by a very poor road network and thus very difficult access to regional and national markets. The thesis explores in this localized context the current rural development, the economic settings and political measures that affect the traditional extensive livestock husbandry system and its importance for rural livelihoods. Livestock management practices still follow the traditional transhumant mode, fully relying on natural pasture. This renders animal feeding very vulnerable to the highly variable climatic conditions which is one of many reasons for gradually declining quantity and quality of pasture vegetation. Small ruminants, and especially goats, are the main important species securing economic viability of their owners’ livelihood, and they are well adapted to the harsh continental climate and the present low input management practices. It is likely that small ruminants will keep their vital role for the rural community in the future, since the weak local infrastructure and slow market developments currently do not allow many income diversification options. Since the profitability of a single animal is low, animal numbers tend to increase, whereas herd management does not change. Possibilities to improve the current livestock management and thus herders’ livelihoods in an environmentally, economically and socially sustainable manner are simulated through bio-economic modelling and the implications are discussed at the regional and national scale. To increase the welfare of the local population, a substantial infrastructural and market development is needed, which needs to be accompanied by suitable pasture management schemes and policies

Design and implementation of BIRDY satellite data and Radiation Payload simulators

Numerical modelling and simulations are needed to develop and test specific analysis methods by providing test data before BIRDY would be launched. This document describes the "satellite data simulator" which is a multi-sensor, multi-spectral satellite simulator produced especially for the BIRDY mission which could be used as well to analyse data from other satellite missions providing energetic particles data in the Solar system.

Rheology of bituminous mastics and mortars containing crumb rubber from tyres: a novel dry-hybrid technology

This report studied the effect of crumb rubber in the asphalt mixture. The mixtures were also having limestone filler as a modifier. Mastic and mortar (mastic-fine aggregate system) mixture having different quantities of crumb rubber and limestone filler modifiers have been tested in order to find the best rutting resistance combination with an acceptable stiffness. The rheological tests on bituminous mastics and mortars have done in the laboratories in Nottingham Transport Engineering Centre (NTEC) and University of Bologna (DICAM). In the second chapter, an extensive literature review about the binders, additives, asphalt mixtures, various modelling and testing methods have been reviewed. In the third chapter, the physical and rheological properties of the binders have been investigated using both traditional devices and DSRs. The forth chapter is dedicated to finding the behaviour of the modified mastics (Binder-modifier system) with different combinations. Five different combinations of crumb rubber and limestone filler mastic tested with various methods using Dynamic Shear Rheometers. In the fifth chapter, in order to find the effect of the modifiers in the rheological properties of the complete asphalt mixture, the fine aggregates added to the same mastic combinations. In this phase, the behaviour of the system so-called mortar; binder, rubber, filler and fine aggregates) has been studied using the DSR device and the traditional tests. The results show that using fine crumb rubber reduces the thermo sensibility of the mastic (Binder Bitumen System) and improves its elasticity. Limestone filler in the other hand increases the mixture stiffness at high Frequencies. Another important outcome of this research was that the rheological properties of the mortars were following the same trend of the mastics, therefore study the rheological properties of the mastic gives an upright estimation of the mortar.

IntelliChair: a non-intrusive sitting posture and sitting activity recognition system

Current Ambient Intelligence and Intelligent Environment research focuses on the interpretation of a subject’s behaviour at the activity level by logging the Activity of Daily Living (ADL) such as eating, cooking, etc. In general, the sensors employed (e.g. PIR sensors, contact sensors) provide low resolution information. Meanwhile, the expansion of ubiquitous computing allows researchers to gather additional information from different types of sensor which is possible to improve activity analysis. Based on the previous research about sitting posture detection, this research attempts to further analyses human sitting activity. The aim of this research is to use non-intrusive low cost pressure sensor embedded chair system to recognize a subject’s activity by using their detected postures. There are three steps for this research, the first step is to find a hardware solution for low cost sitting posture detection, second step is to find a suitable strategy of sitting posture detection and the last step is to correlate the time-ordered sitting posture sequences with sitting activity. The author initiated a prototype type of sensing system called IntelliChair for sitting posture detection. Two experiments are proceeded in order to determine the hardware architecture of IntelliChair system. The prototype looks at the sensor selection and integration of various sensor and indicates the best for a low cost, non-intrusive system. Subsequently, this research implements signal process theory to explore the frequency feature of sitting posture, for the purpose of determining a suitable sampling rate for IntelliChair system. For second and third step, ten subjects are recruited for the sitting posture data and sitting activity data collection. The former dataset is collected byasking subjects to perform certain pre-defined sitting postures on IntelliChair and it is used for posture recognition experiment. The latter dataset is collected by asking the subjects to perform their normal sitting activity routine on IntelliChair for four hours, and the dataset is used for activity modelling and recognition experiment. For the posture recognition experiment, two Support Vector Machine (SVM) based classifiers are trained (one for spine postures and the other one for leg postures), and their performance evaluated. Hidden Markov Model is utilized for sitting activity modelling and recognition in order to establish the selected sitting activities from sitting posture sequences.2. After experimenting with possible sensors, Force Sensing Resistor (FSR) is selected as the pressure sensing unit for IntelliChair. Eight FSRs are mounted on the seat and back of a chair to gather haptic (i.e., touch-based) posture information. Furthermore, the research explores the possibility of using alternative non-intrusive sensing technology (i.e. vision based Kinect Sensor from Microsoft) and find out the Kinect sensor is not reliable for sitting posture detection due to the joint drifting problem. A suitable sampling rate for IntelliChair is determined according to the experiment result which is 6 Hz. The posture classification performance shows that the SVM based classifier is robust to “familiar” subject data (accuracy is 99.8% with spine postures and 99.9% with leg postures). When dealing with “unfamiliar” subject data, the accuracy is 80.7% for spine posture classification and 42.3% for leg posture classification. The result of activity recognition achieves 41.27% accuracy among four selected activities (i.e. relax, play game, working with PC and watching video). The result of this thesis shows that different individual body characteristics and sitting habits influence both sitting posture and sitting activity recognition. In this case, it suggests that IntelliChair is suitable for individual usage but a training stage is required.

DYNAMICS OF THE SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM AVIAN DISTRIBUTIONS IN NORTH AMERICA - THE ROLES OF VEGETATION HEIGHT HETEROGENEITY AND CLIMATIC FACTORS

Understanding how biodiversity spatially distribute over both the short term and long term, and what factors are affecting the distribution, are critical for modeling the spatial pattern of biodiversity as well as for promoting effective conservation planning and practices. This dissertation aims to examine factors that influence short-term and long-term avian distribution from the geographical sciences perspective. The research develops landscape level habitat metrics to characterize forest height heterogeneity and examines their efficacies in modelling avian richness at the continental scale. Two types of novel vegetation-height-structured habitat metrics are created based on second order texture algorithms and the concepts of patch-based habitat metrics. I correlate the height-structured metrics with the richness of different forest guilds, and also examine their efficacies in multivariate richness models. The results suggest that height heterogeneity, beyond canopy height alone, supplements habitat characterization and richness models of two forest bird guilds. The metrics and models derived in this study demonstrate practical examples of utilizing three-dimensional vegetation data for improved characterization of spatial patterns in species richness. The second and the third projects focus on analyzing centroids of avian distributions, and testing hypotheses regarding the direction and speed of these shifts. I first showcase the usefulness of centroids analysis for characterizing the distribution changes of a few case study species. Applying the centroid method on 57 permanent resident bird species, I show that multi-directional distribution shifts occurred in large number of studied species. I also demonstrate, plain birds are not shifting their distribution faster than mountain birds, contrary to the prediction based on climate change velocity hypothesis. By modelling the abundance change rate at regional level, I show that extreme climate events and precipitation measures associate closely with some of the long-term distribution shifts. This dissertation improves our understanding on bird habitat characterization for species richness modelling, and expands our knowledge on how avian populations shifted their ranges in North America responding to changing environments in the past four decades. The results provide an important scientific foundation for more accurate predictive species distribution modeling in future.

Big data: appearance and disappearance

The mainstay of Big Data is prediction in that it allows practitioners, researchers, and policy analysts to predict trends based upon the analysis of large and varied sources of data. These can range from changing social and political opinions, patterns in crimes, and consumer behaviour. Big Data has therefore shifted the criterion of success in science from causal explanations to predictive modelling and simulation. The 19th-century science sought to capture phenomena and seek to show the appearance of it through causal mechanisms while 20th-century science attempted to save the appearance and relinquish causal explanations. Now 21st-century science in the form of Big Data is concerned with the prediction of appearances and nothing more. However, this pulls social science back in the direction of a more rule- or law-governed reality model of science and away from a consideration of the internal nature of rules in relation to various practices. In effect Big Data offers us no more than a world of surface appearance and in doing so it makes disappear any context-specific conceptual sensitivity.