Heating the Early Universe : Numerical Methods and Their Analysis

During the epoch when the first collapsed structures formed (6<z<50) our Universe went through an extended period of changes. Some of the radiation from the first stars and accreting black holes in those structures escaped and changed the state of the Intergalactic Medium (IGM). The era of this global phase change in which the state of the IGM was transformed from cold and neutral to warm and ionized, is called the Epoch of Reionization.In this thesis we focus on numerical methods to calculate the effects of this escaping radiation. We start by considering the performance of the cosmological radiative transfer code C2-Ray. We find that although this code efficiently and accurately solves for the changes in the ionized fractions, it can yield inaccurate results for the temperature changes. We introduce two new elements to improve the code. The first element, an adaptive time step algorithm, quickly determines an optimal time step by only considering the computational cells relevant for this determination. The second element, asynchronous evolution, allows different cells to evolve with different time steps. An important constituent of methods to calculate the effects of ionizing radiation is the transport of photons through the computational domain or ``ray-tracing''. We devise a novel ray tracing method called PYRAMID which uses a new geometry - the pyramidal geometry. This geometry shares properties with both the standard Cartesian and spherical geometries. This makes it on the one hand easy to use in conjunction with a Cartesian grid and on the other hand ideally suited to trace radiation from a radially emitting source. A time-dependent photoionization calculation not only requires tracing the path of photons but also solving the coupled set of photoionization and thermal equations. Several different solvers for these equations are in use in cosmological radiative transfer codes. We conduct a detailed and quantitative comparison of four different standard solvers in which we evaluate how their accuracy depends on the choice of the time step. This comparison shows that their performance can be characterized by two simple parameters and that the C2-Ray generally performs best.

A methodology for building energy modelling and calibration in warm climates

PEDRINI, Aldomar; WESTPHAL, F. S.; LAMBERT, R.. A methodology for building energy modelling and calibration in warm climates. Building And Environment, Australia, n. 37, p.903-912, 2002. Disponível em: . Acesso em: 04 out. 2010.

Modelling and Mining To Manage

In this talk, I will describe various computational modelling and data mining solutions that form the basis of how the office of Deputy Head of Department (Resources) works to serve you. These include lessons I learn about, and from, optimisation issues in resource allocation, uncertainty analysis on league tables, modelling the process of winning external grants, and lessons we learn from student satisfaction surveys, some of which I have attempted to inject into our planning processes.

Design and implementation of BIRDY satellite data and Radiation Payload simulators

Numerical modelling and simulations are needed to develop and test specific analysis methods by providing test data before BIRDY would be launched. This document describes the "satellite data simulator" which is a multi-sensor, multi-spectral satellite simulator produced especially for the BIRDY mission which could be used as well to analyse data from other satellite missions providing energetic particles data in the Solar system.

Towards a Better Modelling and Assessment of Construction Risk: Insights from a Literature Review

This paper reviews the literature of construction risk modelling and assessment. It also reviews the real practice of risk assessment. The review resulted in significant results, summarised as follows. There has been a major shift in risk perception from an estimation variance into a project attribute. Although the Probability–Impact risk model is prevailing, substantial efforts are being put to improving it reflecting the increasing complexity of construction projects. The literature lacks a comprehensive assessment approach capable of capturing risk impact on different project objectives. Obtaining a realistic project risk level demands an effective mechanism for aggregating individual risk assessments. The various assessment tools suffer from low take-up; professionals typically rely on their experience. It is concluded that a simple analytical tool that uses risk cost as a common scale and utilises professional experience could be a viable option to facilitate closing the gap between theory and practice of risk assessment.

Modelling and Verification of a Correction Factor to Evaluate the Efficiency of Solar Thermal Collectors with the Rapid Test Method

A new method for the evaluation of the efficiency of parabolic trough collectors, called Rapid Test Method, is investigated at the Solar Institut Jülich. The basic concept is to carry out measurements under stagnation conditions. This allows a fast and inexpensive process due to the fact that no working fluid is required. With this approach, the temperature reached by the inner wall of the receiver is assumed to be the stagnation temperature and hence the average temperature inside the collector. This leads to a systematic error which can be rectified through the introduction of a correction factor. A model of the collector is simulated with COMSOL Multipyisics to study the size of the correction factor depending on collector geometry and working conditions. The resulting values are compared with experimental data obtained at a test rig at the Solar Institut Jülich. These results do not match with the simulated ones. Consequentially, it was not pos-sible to verify the model. The reliability of both the model with COMSOL Multiphysics and of the measurements are analysed. The influence of the correction factor on the rapid test method is also studied, as well as the possibility of neglecting it by measuring the receiver’s inner wall temperature where it receives the least amount of solar rays. The last two chapters analyse the specific heat capacity as a function of pressure and tem-perature and present some considerations about the uncertainties on the efficiency curve obtained with the Rapid Test Method.

Modelling and estimating models of physician labour supply and productivity

Ma thèse s’intéresse aux politiques de santé conçues pour encourager l’offre de services de santé. L’accessibilité aux services de santé est un problème majeur qui mine le système de santé de la plupart des pays industrialisés. Au Québec, le temps médian d’attente entre une recommandation du médecin généraliste et un rendez-vous avec un médecin spécialiste était de 7,3 semaines en 2012, contre 2,9 semaines en 1993, et ceci malgré l’augmentation du nombre de médecins sur cette même période. Pour les décideurs politiques observant l’augmentation du temps d’attente pour des soins de santé, il est important de comprendre la structure de l’offre de travail des médecins et comment celle-ci affecte l’offre des services de santé. Dans ce contexte, je considère deux principales politiques. En premier lieu, j’estime comment les médecins réagissent aux incitatifs monétaires et j’utilise les paramètres estimés pour examiner comment les politiques de compensation peuvent être utilisées pour déterminer l’offre de services de santé de court terme. En second lieu, j’examine comment la productivité des médecins est affectée par leur expérience, à travers le mécanisme du "learning-by-doing", et j’utilise les paramètres estimés pour trouver le nombre de médecins inexpérimentés que l’on doit recruter pour remplacer un médecin expérimenté qui va à la retraite afin de garder l’offre des services de santé constant. Ma thèse développe et applique des méthodes économique et statistique afin de mesurer la réaction des médecins face aux incitatifs monétaires et estimer leur profil de productivité (en mesurant la variation de la productivité des médecins tout le long de leur carrière) en utilisant à la fois des données de panel sur les médecins québécois, provenant d’enquêtes et de l’administration. Les données contiennent des informations sur l’offre de travail de chaque médecin, les différents types de services offerts ainsi que leurs prix. Ces données couvrent une période pendant laquelle le gouvernement du Québec a changé les prix relatifs des services de santé. J’ai utilisé une approche basée sur la modélisation pour développer et estimer un modèle structurel d’offre de travail en permettant au médecin d’être multitâche. Dans mon modèle les médecins choisissent le nombre d’heures travaillées ainsi que l’allocation de ces heures à travers les différents services offerts, de plus les prix des services leurs sont imposés par le gouvernement. Le modèle génère une équation de revenu qui dépend des heures travaillées et d’un indice de prix représentant le rendement marginal des heures travaillées lorsque celles-ci sont allouées de façon optimale à travers les différents services. L’indice de prix dépend des prix des services offerts et des paramètres de la technologie de production des services qui déterminent comment les médecins réagissent aux changements des prix relatifs. J’ai appliqué le modèle aux données de panel sur la rémunération des médecins au Québec fusionnées à celles sur l’utilisation du temps de ces mêmes médecins. J’utilise le modèle pour examiner deux dimensions de l’offre des services de santé. En premierlieu, j’analyse l’utilisation des incitatifs monétaires pour amener les médecins à modifier leur production des différents services. Bien que les études antérieures ont souvent cherché à comparer le comportement des médecins à travers les différents systèmes de compensation,il y a relativement peu d’informations sur comment les médecins réagissent aux changementsdes prix des services de santé. Des débats actuels dans les milieux de politiques de santé au Canada se sont intéressés à l’importance des effets de revenu dans la détermination de la réponse des médecins face à l’augmentation des prix des services de santé. Mon travail contribue à alimenter ce débat en identifiant et en estimant les effets de substitution et de revenu résultant des changements des prix relatifs des services de santé. En second lieu, j’analyse comment l’expérience affecte la productivité des médecins. Cela a une importante implication sur le recrutement des médecins afin de satisfaire la demande croissante due à une population vieillissante, en particulier lorsque les médecins les plus expérimentés (les plus productifs) vont à la retraite. Dans le premier essai, j’ai estimé la fonction de revenu conditionnellement aux heures travaillées, en utilisant la méthode des variables instrumentales afin de contrôler pour une éventuelle endogeneité des heures travaillées. Comme instruments j’ai utilisé les variables indicatrices des âges des médecins, le taux marginal de taxation, le rendement sur le marché boursier, le carré et le cube de ce rendement. Je montre que cela donne la borne inférieure de l’élasticité-prix direct, permettant ainsi de tester si les médecins réagissent aux incitatifs monétaires. Les résultats montrent que les bornes inférieures des élasticités-prix de l’offre de services sont significativement positives, suggérant que les médecins répondent aux incitatifs. Un changement des prix relatifs conduit les médecins à allouer plus d’heures de travail au service dont le prix a augmenté. Dans le deuxième essai, j’estime le modèle en entier, de façon inconditionnelle aux heures travaillées, en analysant les variations des heures travaillées par les médecins, le volume des services offerts et le revenu des médecins. Pour ce faire, j’ai utilisé l’estimateur de la méthode des moments simulés. Les résultats montrent que les élasticités-prix direct de substitution sont élevées et significativement positives, représentant une tendance des médecins à accroitre le volume du service dont le prix a connu la plus forte augmentation. Les élasticitésprix croisées de substitution sont également élevées mais négatives. Par ailleurs, il existe un effet de revenu associé à l’augmentation des tarifs. J’ai utilisé les paramètres estimés du modèle structurel pour simuler une hausse générale de prix des services de 32%. Les résultats montrent que les médecins devraient réduire le nombre total d’heures travaillées (élasticité moyenne de -0,02) ainsi que les heures cliniques travaillées (élasticité moyenne de -0.07). Ils devraient aussi réduire le volume de services offerts (élasticité moyenne de -0.05). Troisièmement, j’ai exploité le lien naturel existant entre le revenu d’un médecin payé à l’acte et sa productivité afin d’établir le profil de productivité des médecins. Pour ce faire, j’ai modifié la spécification du modèle pour prendre en compte la relation entre la productivité d’un médecin et son expérience. J’estime l’équation de revenu en utilisant des données de panel asymétrique et en corrigeant le caractère non-aléatoire des observations manquantes à l’aide d’un modèle de sélection. Les résultats suggèrent que le profil de productivité est une fonction croissante et concave de l’expérience. Par ailleurs, ce profil est robuste à l’utilisation de l’expérience effective (la quantité de service produit) comme variable de contrôle et aussi à la suppression d’hypothèse paramétrique. De plus, si l’expérience du médecin augmente d’une année, il augmente la production de services de 1003 dollar CAN. J’ai utilisé les paramètres estimés du modèle pour calculer le ratio de remplacement : le nombre de médecins inexpérimentés qu’il faut pour remplacer un médecin expérimenté. Ce ratio de remplacement est de 1,2.

Ordering induced by chemical, thermal and mechanical constraints at solid interfaces

We know that classical thermodynamics even out of equilibrium always leads to stable situation which means degradation and consequently d sorder. Many experimental evidences in different fields show that gradation and order (symmetry breaking) during time and space evolution may appear when maintaining the system far from equilibrium. Order through fluctuations, stochastic processes which occur around critical points and dissipative structures are the fundamental background of the Prigogine-Glansdorff and Nicolis theory. The thermodynamics of macroscopic fluctuations to stochastic approach as well as the kinetic deterministic laws allow a better understanding of the peculiar fascinating behavior of organized matter. The reason for the occurence of this situation is directly related to intrinsic non linearities of the different mechanisms responsible for the evolution of the system. Moreover, when dealing with interfaces separating two immiscible phases (liquid - gas, liquid -liquid, liquid - solid, solid - solid), the situation is rather more complicated. Indeed coupling terms playing the major role in the conditions of instability arise from the peculiar singular static and dynamic properties of the surface and of its vicinity. In other words, the non linearities are not only intrinsic to classical steps involving feedbacks, but they may be imbedded with the non-autonomous character of the surface properties. In order to illustrate our goal we discuss three examples of ordering in far from equilibrium conditions: i) formation of chemical structures during the oxidation of metals and alloys; ii) formation of mechanical structures during the oxidation of metals iii) formation of patterns at a solid-liquid moving interface due to supercooling condition in a melt of alloy. © 1984, Walter de Gruyter. All rights reserved.

A methodology for building energy modelling and calibration in warm climates

PEDRINI, Aldomar; WESTPHAL, F. S.; LAMBERT, R.. A methodology for building energy modelling and calibration in warm climates. Building And Environment, Australia, n. 37, p.903-912, 2002. Disponível em: . Acesso em: 04 out. 2010.

The mosaic of habitats of the Seine estuary: Insights from food-web modelling and network analysis

Ecological network analysis was applied in the Seine estuary ecosystem, northern France, integrating ecological data from the years 1996 to 2002. The Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) approach was used to model the trophic flows in 6 spatial compartments leading to 6 distinct EwE models: the navigation channel and the two channel flanks in the estuary proper, and 3 marine habitats in the eastern Seine Bay. Each model included 12 consumer groups, 2 primary producers, and one detritus group. Ecological network analysis was performed, including a set of indices, keystoneness, and trophic spectrum analysis to describe the contribution of the 6 habitats to the Seine estuary ecosystem functioning. Results showed that the two habitats with a functioning most related to a stressed state were the northern and central navigation channels, where building works and constant maritime traffic are considered major anthropogenic stressors. The strong top-down control highlighted in the other 4 habitats was not present in the central channel, showing instead (i) a change in keystone roles in the ecosystem towards sediment-based, lower trophic levels, and (ii) a higher system omnivory. The southern channel evidenced the highest system activity (total system throughput), the higher trophic specialisation (low system omnivory), and the lowest indication of stress (low cycling and relative redundancy). Marine habitats showed higher fish biomass proportions and higher transfer efficiencies per trophic levels than the estuarine habitats, with a transition area between the two that presented intermediate ecosystem structure. The modelling of separate habitats permitted disclosing each one's response to the different pressures, based on their a priori knowledge. Network indices, although non-monotonously, responded to these differences and seem a promising operational tool to define the ecological status of transitional water ecosystems.

Molecular and biological characterisation of orthobunyaviruses

Orthobunyaviruses are the largest genus within the Bunyaviridae family, with over 170 named viruses classified into 18 serogroups (Elliott and Blakqori, 2001; Plyusnin et al., 2012). Orthobunyaviruses are transmitted by arthropods and have a tripartite negative sense RNA genome, which encodes 4 structural proteins and 2 non-structural proteins. The non-structural protein NSs is the primary virulence factor of orthobunyaviruses and potent antagonist of the type I interferon (IFN) response. However, sequencing studies have identified pathogenic viruses that lack the NSs protein (Mohamed et al., 2009; Gauci et al., 2010). The work presented in this thesis describes the molecular and biological characterisation of divergent orthobunyaviruses. Data on plaque morphology, growth kinetics, protein profiles, sensitivity to IFN and activation of the type I IFN system are presented for viruses in the Anopheles A, Anopheles B, Capim, Gamboa, Guama, Minatitlan, Nyando, Tete and Turlock serogroups. These are complemented with complete genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis. Low activation of IFN by Tete serogroup viruses, which naturally lack an NSs protein, was also further investigated by the development of a reverse genetics system for Batama virus (BMAV). Recombinant viruses with mutations in the virus nucleocapsid protein amino terminus showed higher activation of type I IFN in vitro and data suggests that low levels of IFN are due to lower activation rather than active antagonism. The anti-orthobunyavirus activity of IFN-stimulated genes IFI44, IFITMs and human and ovine BST2 were also studied, revealing that activity varies not only within the orthobunyavirus genus and virus serogroups but also within virus species. Furthermore, there was evidence of active antagonism of the type I IFN response and ISGs by non-NSs viruses. In summary, the results show that pathogenicity in man and antagonism of the type I IFN response in vitro cannot be predicted by the presence, or absence, of an NSs ORF. They also highlight problems in orthobunyavirus classification with discordance between classical antigen based data and phylogenetic analysis.

Speech and narrative: characterisation techniques in the "Aeneid"

The thesis provides a comprehensive analysis of the characterisation of two of the major figures in the Aeneid, Aeneas and Turnus. Particular attention is paid to their direct speeches, all of which are examined and, where relevant, compared to Homeric models and parallels. To this purpose considerable use is made of the indices in Knauer's Die Aeneis und Homer. A more general comparison is made between the dramatic (direct speech) role of Aeneas and those of Homer's Achilles (Iliad) and Odysseus (Odyssey). An appraisal is made (from the viewpoint of depiction of character) of the relationship between the direct and indirect speeches in the Aeneid. Reasons are given to suggest that it is not mere chance, or for the sake of variety, that certain speeches of Aeneas and Turnus are expressed in oratio obliqua. In addition, the narrative portrayal of Aeneas and Turnus is considered in apposition to that of the speeches. A distinction is drawn between Vergil's direct method of characterisation (direct speeches) and his indirect methods (narrative/oratio obliqua). Inevitably, the analysis involves major consideration of the Roman values which pervade the work. All speeches, thoughts and actions of Aeneas and Turnus are assessed in terms of pietas, impietas, furor, virtus, ratio, clementia, humanitas (etc.). It is shown that individual concepts (such as pietas and impietas) are reflected in Vergil's direct and indirect methods of characterisation. The workings of fate and their relevance to the pietas concept are discussed throughout.