A general class of zero-or-one inflated beta regression models

This paper proposes a general class of regression models for continuous proportions when the data contain zeros or ones. The proposed class of models assumes that the response variable has a mixed continuous-discrete distribution with probability mass at zero or one. The beta distribution is used to describe the continuous component of the model, since its density has a wide range of different shapes depending on the values of the two parameters that index the distribution. We use a suitable parameterization of the beta law in terms of its mean and a precision parameter. The parameters of the mixture distribution are modeled as functions of regression parameters. We provide inference, diagnostic, and model selection tools for this class of models. A practical application that employs real data is presented. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Bayesian analysis of random regression models using B-splines to model test-day milk yield of Holstein cattle in Brazil

The objective of this paper is to model variations in test-day milk yields of first lactations of Holstein cows by RR using B-spline functions and Bayesian inference in order to fit adequate and parsimonious models for the estimation of genetic parameters. They used 152,145 test day milk yield records from 7317 first lactations of Holstein cows. The model established in this study was additive, permanent environmental and residual random effects. In addition, contemporary group and linear and quadratic effects of the age of cow at calving were included as fixed effects. Authors modeled the average lactation curve of the population with a fourth-order orthogonal Legendre polynomial. They concluded that a cubic B-spline with seven random regression coefficients for both the additive genetic and permanent environment effects was to be the best according to residual mean square and residual variance estimates. Moreover they urged a lower order model (quadratic B-spline with seven random regression coefficients for both random effects) could be adopted because it yielded practically the same genetic parameter estimates with parsimony. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Suicide rates and trends in Sao Paulo, Brazil, according to gender, age and demographic aspects: a joinpoint regression analysis

Objective: To evaluate suicide rates and trends in Sao Paulo by sex, age-strata, and methods. Methods: Data was collected from State registry from 1996 to 2009. Population was estimated using the National Census. We utilized joinpoint regression analysis to explore temporal trends. We also evaluated marital status, ethnicity, birthplace and methods for suicide. Results: In the period analyzed, 6,002 suicides were accrued with a rate of 4.6 per 100,000 (7.5 in men and 2.0 in women); the male-to-female ratio was around 3.7. Trends for men presented a significant decline of 5.3% per year from 1996 to 2002, and a significant increase of 2.5% from 2002 onwards. Women did not present significant changes. For men, the elderly (> 65 years) had a significant reduction of 2.3% per year, while younger men (25-44 years) presented a significant increase of 8.6% from 2004 onwards. Women did not present significant trend changes according to age. Leading suicide methods were hanging and poisoning for men and women, respectively. Other analyses showed an increased suicide risk ratio for singles and foreigners. Conclusions: Specific epidemiological trends for suicide in the city of Sao Paulo that warrant further investigation were identified. High-risk groups - such as immigrants - could benefit from targeted strategies of suicide prevention.

Random regression analyses using B-spline functions to model growth of Nellore cattle

The objective of this study was to estimate (co)variance components using random regression on B-spline functions to weight records obtained from birth to adulthood. A total of 82 064 weight records of 8145 females obtained from the data bank of the Nellore Breeding Program (PMGRN/Nellore Brazil) which started in 1987, were used. The models included direct additive and maternal genetic effects and animal and maternal permanent environmental effects as random. Contemporary group and dam age at calving (linear and quadratic effect) were included as fixed effects, and orthogonal Legendre polynomials of age (cubic regression) were considered as random covariate. The random effects were modeled using B-spline functions considering linear, quadratic and cubic polynomials for each individual segment. Residual variances were grouped in five age classes. Direct additive genetic and animal permanent environmental effects were modeled using up to seven knots (six segments). A single segment with two knots at the end points of the curve was used for the estimation of maternal genetic and maternal permanent environmental effects. A total of 15 models were studied, with the number of parameters ranging from 17 to 81. The models that used B-splines were compared with multi-trait analyses with nine weight traits and to a random regression model that used orthogonal Legendre polynomials. A model fitting quadratic B-splines, with four knots or three segments for direct additive genetic effect and animal permanent environmental effect and two knots for maternal additive genetic effect and maternal permanent environmental effect, was the most appropriate and parsimonious model to describe the covariance structure of the data. Selection for higher weight, such as at young ages, should be performed taking into account an increase in mature cow weight. Particularly, this is important in most of Nellore beef cattle production systems, where the cow herd is maintained on range conditions. There is limited modification of the growth curve of Nellore cattle with respect to the aim of selecting them for rapid growth at young ages while maintaining constant adult weight.

Predicting smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis with classification trees and logistic regression: a cross-sectional study

Abstract Background Smear negative pulmonary tuberculosis (SNPT) accounts for 30% of pulmonary tuberculosis cases reported yearly in Brazil. This study aimed to develop a prediction model for SNPT for outpatients in areas with scarce resources. Methods The study enrolled 551 patients with clinical-radiological suspicion of SNPT, in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The original data was divided into two equivalent samples for generation and validation of the prediction models. Symptoms, physical signs and chest X-rays were used for constructing logistic regression and classification and regression tree models. From the logistic regression, we generated a clinical and radiological prediction score. The area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, sensitivity, and specificity were used to evaluate the model's performance in both generation and validation samples. Results It was possible to generate predictive models for SNPT with sensitivity ranging from 64% to 71% and specificity ranging from 58% to 76%. Conclusion The results suggest that those models might be useful as screening tools for estimating the risk of SNPT, optimizing the utilization of more expensive tests, and avoiding costs of unnecessary anti-tuberculosis treatment. Those models might be cost-effective tools in a health care network with hierarchical distribution of scarce resources.

Suicide rates and trends in São Paulo, Brazil, according to gender, age and demographic aspects: a joinpoint regression analysis

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate suicide rates and trends in São Paulo by sex, age-strata, and methods. METHODS: Data was collected from State registry from 1996 to 2009. Population was estimated using the National Census. We utilized joinpoint regression analysis to explore temporal trends. We also evaluated marital status, ethnicity, birthplace and methods for suicide. RESULTS: In the period analyzed, 6,002 suicides were accrued with a rate of 4.6 per 100,000 (7.5 in men and 2.0 in women); the male-to-female ratio was around 3.7. Trends for men presented a significant decline of 5.3% per year from 1996 to 2002, and a significant increase of 2.5% from 2002 onwards. Women did not present significant changes. For men, the elderly (> 65 years) had a significant reduction of 2.3% per year, while younger men (25-44 years) presented a significant increase of 8.6% from 2004 onwards. Women did not present significant trend changes according to age. Leading suicide methods were hanging and poisoning for men and women, respectively. Other analyses showed an increased suicide risk ratio for singles and foreigners. CONCLUSIONS: Specific epidemiological trends for suicide in the city of São Paulo that warrant further investigation were identified. High-risk groups - such as immigrants - could benefit from targeted strategies of suicide prevention.

Intrinsic uncoupling in the ATP synthase of Escherichia coli. Studies on WT and ε-truncated mutants

The H+/ATP ratio in the catalysis of ATP synthase has generally been considered a fixed parameter. However, Melandri and coworkers have recently shown that, in the ATP synthase of the photosynthetic bacterium Rb.capsulatus, this ratio can significantly decrease during ATP hydrolysis when the concentration of either ADP or Pi is maintained at a low level (Turina et al., 2004). The present work has dealt with the ATP synthase of E.coli, looking for evidence of this phenomenon of intrinsic uncoupling in this organism as well. First of all, we have shown that the DCCD-sensitive ATP hydrolysis activity of E.coli internal membranes was strongly inhibited by ADP and Pi, with a half-maximal effect in the submicromolar range for ADP and at 140 µM for Pi. In contrast to this monotonic inhibition, however, the proton pumping activity of the enzyme, as estimated under the same conditions by the fluorescence quenching of the ΔpH-sensitive probe ACMA, showed a clearly biphasic progression, both for Pi, increasing from 0 up to approximately 200 µM, and for ADP, increasing from 0 up to a few µM. We have interpreted these results as indicating that the occupancy of ADP and Pi binding sites shifts the enzyme from a partially uncoupled state to a fully coupled state, and we expect that the ADP- and Pi-modulated intrinsic uncoupling is likely to be a general feature of prokaryotic ATP synthases. Moreover, the biphasicity of the proton pumping data suggested that two Pi binding sites are involved. In order to verify whether the same behaviour could be observed in the isolated enzyme, we have purified the ATP synthase of E.coli and reconstituted it into liposomes. Similarly as observed in the internal membrane preparation, in the isolated and reconstituted enzyme it was possible to observe inhibition of the hydrolytic activity by ADP and Pi (with half-maximal effects at few µM for ADP and at 400 µM for Pi) with a concomitant stimulation of proton pumping. Both the inhibition of ATP hydrolysis and the stimulation of proton pumping as a function of Pi were lost upon ADP removal by an ADP trap. These data have made it possible to conclude that the results obtained in E.coli internal membranes are not due to the artefactual interference of enzymatic activities other than the ones of the ATP synthase. In addition, data obtained with liposomes have allowed a calibration of the ACMA signal by ΔpH transitions of known extent, leading to a quantitative evaluation of the proton pumping data. Finally, we have focused our efforts on searching for a possible structural candidate involved in the phenomenon of intrinsic uncoupling. The ε-subunit of the ATP-synthase is known as an endogenous inhibitor of the hydrolysis activity of the complex and appears to undergo drastic conformational changes between a non-inhibitory form (down-state) and an inhibitory form (up-state)(Rodgers & Wilce, 2000; Gibbons et al., 2000). In addition, the results of Cipriano & Dunn (2006) indicated that the C-terminal domain of this subunit played an important role in the coupling mechanism of the pump, and those of Capaldi et al. (2001), Suzuki et al. (2003) were consistent with the down-state showing a higher hydrolysis-to-synthesis ratio than the up-state. Therefore, we decided to search for modulation of pumping efficiency in a C-terminally truncated ε mutant. A low copy number expression vector has been built, carrying an extra copy of uncC, with the aim of generating an ε-overexpressing E.coli strain in which normal levels of assembly of the mutated ATP-synthase complex would be promoted. We have then compared the ATP hydrolysis and the proton pumping activity in membranes prepared from these ε-overexpressing E.coli strains, which carried either the WT ε subunit or the ε88-stop truncated form. Both strains yielded well energized membranes. Noticeably, they showed a marked difference in the inhibition of hydrolysis by Pi, this effect being largely lost in the truncated mutant. However, pre-incubation of the mutated enzyme with ADP at low nanomolar concentrations (apparent Kd = 0.7nM) restored the hydrolysis inhibition, together with the modulation of intrinsic uncoupling by Pi, indicating that, contrary to wild-type, during membrane preparation the truncated mutant had lost the ADP bound at this high-affinity site, evidently due to a lower affinity (and/or higher release) for ADP of the mutant relative to wild type. Therefore, one of the effects of the C-terminal domain of ε appears to be to modulate the affinity of at least one of the binding sites for ADP. The lack of this domain does not appear so much to influence the modulability of coupling efficiency, but instead the extent of this modulation. At higher preincubated ADP concentrations (apparent Kd = 117nM), the only observed effects were inhibition of both hydrolysis and synthesis, providing a direct proof that two ADP-binding sites on the enzyme are involved in the inhibition of hydrolysis, of which only the one at higher affinity also modulates the coupling efficiency.