Tuberculosis in Cape Town: An age-structured transmission model.

BACKGROUND Tuberculosis (TB) is the leading cause of death in South Africa. The burden of disease varies by age, with peaks in TB notification rates in the HIV-negative population at ages 0-5, 20-24, and 45-49 years. There is little variation between age groups in the rates in the HIV-positive population. The drivers of this age pattern remain unknown. METHODS We developed an age-structured simulation model of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission in Cape Town, South Africa. We considered five states of TB progression: susceptible, infected (latent TB), active TB, treated TB, and treatment default. Latently infected individuals could be re-infected; a previous Mtb infection slowed progression to active disease. We further considered three states of HIV progression: HIV negative, HIV positive, on antiretroviral therapy. To parameterize the model, we analysed treatment outcomes from the Cape Town electronic TB register, social mixing patterns from a Cape Town community and used literature estimates for other parameters. To investigate the main drivers behind the age patterns, we conducted sensitivity analyses on all parameters related to the age structure. RESULTS The model replicated the age patterns in HIV-negative TB notification rates of Cape Town in 2009. Simulated TB notification rate in HIV-negative patients was 1000/100,000 person-years (pyrs) in children aged <5 years and decreased to 51/100,000 in children 5-15 years. The peak in early adulthood occurred at 25-29 years (463/100,000 pyrs). After a subsequent decline, simulated TB notification rates gradually increased from the age of 30 years. Sensitivity analyses showed that the dip after the early adult peak was due to the protective effect of latent TB and that retreatment TB was mainly responsible for the rise in TB notification rates from the age of 30 years. CONCLUSION The protective effect of a first latent infection on subsequent infections and the faster progression in previously treated patients are the key determinants of the age-structure of TB notification rates in Cape Town.

Cape Town

L. Kessler

Studien aus Toynbee-Hall

S.

Bilder aus Toynbee-Hall

S.

Bilder aus Toynbee-Hall : III.

S.

Zangwills Rede in der Great Assembly Hall

Zangwill

Theme for English A, B and E: An Anthology of Identity in Cape Town, South Africa

This collection of poetry from grade 11 students in Cape Town, South Africa seeks to explore self-identity in South African high school students. In reading through their personal work, one can identify four ways in which these students define themselves: using self-promotion, or a display of personal strength; self-doubt, or moments of vulnerability; self-exploration, or the literary journey students take to define and explore their lives; and self-definition through social issues, or the examining of important social issues in South Africa and how they play into the lives of students. This anthology and literary analysis explores life-defining issues that are unique to South African high school students using these four criteria and ponders the distinctness of these issues through poetry.

Hall Caine über den Zionismus

M. W.

Parallelen aus der jüdischen Geschichte : Vortrag gehalten in London den 16. Juni für die englisch-jüdische historische Ausstellung im Saale des Royal Albert Hall

Heinrich Graetz