Time Variation in the Dynamics of Worker Flows: Evidence from the US and Canada

VAR methods have been used to model the inter-relationships between inflows and outfl ows into unemployment and vacancies using tools such as impulse response analysis. In order to investigate whether such impulse responses change over the course of the business cycle or or over time, this paper uses TVP-VARs for US and Canadian data. For the US, we find interesting differences between the most recent recession and earlier recessions and expansions. In particular, we find the immediate effect of a negative shock on both in ow and out flow hazards to be larger in 2008 than in earlier times. Furthermore, the effect of this shock takes longer to decay. For Canada, we fi nd less evidence of time-variation in impulse responses.

The Forward Premium Puzzle and The Euro

This paper evaluates the forward premium puzzle using the Euro exchange rate. Unlike previous studies, our analysis utilizes time-varying parameter methods and is based on two approaches for evaluation of the puzzle; the traditional approach analyzing the sensitivity of interest rate differentials to the forward premium, and the other looking into deviations from the covered interest rate parity (CIRP) condition. Then we provide evidence that the forward premium puzzle indeed became more prominent around the time of the recent crisis periods such as the Lehman Shock and the Euro crisis. This is also shown to be consistent with a deterioration in the CIRP.

Term Structure Dynamics, Macro-Finance Factors and Model Uncertainty

This paper extends the Nelson-Siegel linear factor model by developing a flexible macro-finance framework for modeling and forecasting the term structure of US interest rates. Our approach is robust to parameter uncertainty and structural change, as we consider instabilities in parameters and volatilities, and our model averaging method allows for investors' model uncertainty over time. Our time-varying parameter Nelson-Siegel Dynamic Model Averaging (NS-DMA) predicts yields better than standard benchmarks and successfully captures plausible time-varying term premia in real time. The proposed model has significant in-sample and out-of-sample predictability for excess bond returns, and the predictability is of economic value.

Hepatitis C prevalence and risk factors in hemodialysis patients in Central Brazil: a survey by polymerase chain reaction and serological methods

An hemodialysis population in Central Brazil was screened by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and serological methods to assess the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and to investigate associated risk factors. All hemodialysis patients (n=428) were interviewed in eight dialysis units in Goiânia city. Blood samples were collected and serum samples screened for anti-HCV antibodies by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Positive samples were retested for confirmation with a line immunoassay (LIA). All samples were also tested for HCV RNA by the PCR. An overall prevalence of 46.7% (CI 95%: 42-51.5) was found, ranging from 20.7% (CI 95%: 8.8-38.1) to 90.4% (CI 95%: 79.9-96.4) depending on the dialysis unit. Of the 428 patients, 185 were found to be seropositive by ELISA, and 167 were confirmed positive by LIA, resulting in an anti-HCV prevalence of 39%. A total of 131 patients were HCV RNA-positive. HCV viremia was present in 63.5% of the anti-HCV-positive patients and in 10.3% of the anti-HCV-negative patients. Univariate analysis of risk factors showed that the number of previous blood transfusions, transfusion of blood before mandatory screening for anti-HCV, length of time on hemodialysis, and treatment in multiple units were associated with HCV positivity. However, multivariate analysis revealed that blood transfusion before screening for anti-HCV and length of time on hemodialysis were significantly associated with HCV infection in this population. These data suggest that nosocomial transmission may play a role in the spread of HCV in the dialysis units studied. In addition to anti-HCV screening, HCV RNA detection is necessary for the diagnosis of HCV infection in hemodialysis patients.

Polypharmacy is Associated with an Increased Risk of Bleeding in Elderly Patients with Venous Thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND: Polypharmacy, defined as the concomitant use of multiple medications, is very common in the elderly and may trigger drug-drug interactions and increase the risk of falls in patients receiving vitamin K antagonists. OBJECTIVE: To examine whether polypharmacy increases the risk of bleeding in elderly patients who receive vitamin K antagonists for acute venous thromboembolism (VTE). DESIGN: We used a prospective cohort study. PARTICIPANTS: In a multicenter Swiss cohort, we studied 830 patients aged ≥ 65 years with VTE. MAIN MEASURES: We defined polypharmacy as the prescription of more than four different drugs. We assessed the association between polypharmacy and the time to a first major and clinically relevant non-major bleeding, accounting for the competing risk of death. We adjusted for known bleeding risk factors (age, gender, pulmonary embolism, active cancer, arterial hypertension, cardiac disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic liver and renal disease, diabetes mellitus, history of major bleeding, recent surgery, anemia, thrombocytopenia) and periods of vitamin K antagonist treatment as a time-varying covariate. KEY RESULTS: Overall, 413 (49.8 %) patients had polypharmacy. The mean follow-up duration was 17.8 months. Patients with polypharmacy had a significantly higher incidence of major (9.0 vs. 4.1 events/100 patient-years; incidence rate ratio [IRR] 2.18, 95 % confidence interval [CI] 1.32-3.68) and clinically relevant non-major bleeding (14.8 vs. 8.0 events/100 patient-years; IRR 1.85, 95 % CI 1.27-2.71) than patients without polypharmacy. After adjustment, polypharmacy was significantly associated with major (sub-hazard ratio [SHR] 1.83, 95 % CI 1.03-3.25) and clinically relevant non-major bleeding (SHR 1.60, 95 % CI 1.06-2.42). CONCLUSIONS: Polypharmacy is associated with an increased risk of both major and clinically relevant non-major bleeding in elderly patients receiving vitamin K antagonists for VTE.

Hepatitis B virus infection profile in hemodialysis patients in Central Brazil: prevalence, risk factors, and genotypes

Hemodialysis patients are at high risk for hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection. A survey was conducted in the hemodialysis population of the state of Goiás, Central Brazil, aiming to assess the prevalence of HBV infection, to analyse associated risk factors, and also to investigate HBV genotypes distribution. A total of 1095 patients were interviewed in 15 dialysis units. Serum samples were screened for HBV serological markers by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) positive samples were tested for HBV DNA by polymerase chain reaction and genotyped by restriction fragment length polymorphism. Global HBV infection prevalence was 29.8% (95% CI: 27.1-32.5). Multivariate analysis of risk factors showed that male gender, length of time on hemodialysis, and blood transfusion before 1993 were associated with HBV positivity. HBV DNA was detected in 65.4% (17/26) of the HBsAg-positive samples. Thirteen of 17 HBV DNA positive samples were genotyped. Genotype D (61.5%) was predominant, followed by A (30.8%), while genotype F was detected in only one (7.7%) sample.

Assessment of myocardial edema and area-at-risk in acute myocardial infarction by CMR: Evaluation of a novel T2-mapping method

Objectives. The goal of this study is to evaluate a T2-mapping sequence by: (i) measuring the reproducibility intra- and inter-observer variability in healthy volunteers in two separate scanning session with a T2 reference phantom; (2) measuring the mean T2 relaxation times by T2-mapping in infarcted myocardium in patients with subacute MI and compare it with patient's the gold standard X-ray coronary angiography and healthy volunteers results. Background. Myocardial edema is a consequence of an inflammation of the tissue, as seen in myocardial infarct (MI). It can be visualized by cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging using the T2 relaxation time. T2-mapping is a quantitative methodology that has the potential to address the limitation of the conventional T2-weighted (T2W) imaging. Methods. The T2-mapping protocol used for all MRI scans consisted in a radial gradient echo acquisition with a lung-liver navigator for free-breathing acquisition and affine image registration. Mid-basal short axis slices were acquired.T2-maps analyses: 2 observers semi- automatically segmented the left ventricle in 6 segments accordingly to the AHA standards. 8 healthy volunteers (age: 27 ± 4 years; 62.5% male) were scanned in 2 separate sessions. 17 patients (age : 61.9 ± 13.9 years; 82.4% male) with subacute STEMI (70.6%) and NSTEMI underwent a T2-mapping scanning session. Results. In healthy volunteers, the mean inter- and intra-observer variability over the entire short axis slice (segment 1 to 6) was 0.1 ms (95% confidence interval (CI): -0.4 to 0.5, p = 0.62) and 0.2 ms (95% CI: -2.8 to 3.2, p = 0.94, respectively. T2 relaxation time measurements with and without the correction of the phantom yielded an average difference of 3.0 ± 1.1 % and 3.1 ± 2.1 % (p = 0.828), respectively. In patients, the inter-observer variability in the entire short axis slice (S1-S6), was 0.3 ms (95% CI: -1.8 to 2.4, p = 0.85). Edema location as determined through the T2-mapping and the coronary artery occlusion as determined on X-ray coronary angiography correlated in 78.6%, but only in 60% in apical infarcts. All except one of the maximal T2 values in infarct patients were greater than the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval for normal myocardium. Conclusions. The T2-mapping methodology is accurate in detecting infarcted, i.e. edematous tissue in patients with subacute infarcts. This study further demonstrated that this T2-mapping technique is reproducible and robust enough to be used on a segmental basis for edema detection without the need of a phantom to yield a T2 correction factor. This new quantitative T2-mapping technique is promising and is likely to allow for serial follow-up studies in patients to improve our knowledge on infarct pathophysiology, on infarct healing, and for the assessment of novel treatment strategies for acute infarctions.

Flexible multivariate GARCH modeling with an application to international stock markets

The goal of this paper is to estimate time-varying covariance matrices.Since the covariance matrix of financial returns is known to changethrough time and is an essential ingredient in risk measurement, portfolioselection, and tests of asset pricing models, this is a very importantproblem in practice. Our model of choice is the Diagonal-Vech version ofthe Multivariate GARCH(1,1) model. The problem is that the estimation ofthe general Diagonal-Vech model model is numerically infeasible indimensions higher than 5. The common approach is to estimate more restrictive models which are tractable but may not conform to the data. Our contributionis to propose an alternative estimation method that is numerically feasible,produces positive semi-definite conditional covariance matrices, and doesnot impose unrealistic a priori restrictions. We provide an empiricalapplication in the context of international stock markets, comparing thenew estimator to a number of existing ones.

Abnormal Lung Function and Risk for Heart Failure in the Elderly: The Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been associated with increased risk for heart failure (HF). The impact of subclinical abnormal spirometric findings on HF risk among older adults without history of COPD is not well elucidated. Methods: We evaluated 2125 participants (age 73.6±2.9 years; 50.5% men; 62.3% white; 45.6/9.4% past/current smokers; body mass index [BMI] 27.2±4.6 kg/m2) without prevalent COPD or HF who underwent baseline spirometry in the Health ABC Study. Abnormal lung function was defined either as forced vital capacity (FVC) below lower limit of normal (LLN) or forced expiratory volume in 1st sec (FEV1) to FVC ratio below LLN. Results: On follow-up (median, 9.4 years), 68 of 350 (19.4%) participants with abnormal lung function developed HF, as compared to 172 of 1775 (9.7%) participants with normal lung function (hazard ratio [HR], 2.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.74 -3.06; P<.001). This increased risk persisted after adjusting for all other independent predictors of HF in the Health ABC Study, BMI, incident coronary events, and several inflammatory markers (HR, 1.82; 95% CI, 1.30 -2.54; P<.001), and remained constant over time. Baseline FVC and FEV1 had a linear association with HF risk (Figure). In adjusted models, HF risk increased by 21% (95% CI, 10 -36%) per 10% decrease in FVC and 18% (95% CI, 10 -28%) per 10% decrease in FEV1 (both P<.001); this association persisted among participants with normal lung function at baseline. Findings were consistent across sex, race, and smoking status. Conclusions: Subclinical abnormal spirometric findings are prevalent among older adults and are independently associated with risk for incident HF.

Modifiable and nonmodifiable risk factors for postoperative delirium after cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass.

Postoperative delirium after cardiac surgery is associated with increased morbidity and mortality as well as prolonged stay in both the intensive care unit and the hospital. The authors sought to identify modifiable risk factors associated with the development of postoperative delirium in elderly patients after elective cardiac surgery in order to be able to design follow-up studies aimed at the prevention of delirium by optimizing perioperative management. A post hoc analysis of data from patients enrolled in a randomized controlled trial was performed. A single university hospital. One hundred thirteen patients aged 65 or older undergoing elective cardiac surgery with cardiopulmonary bypass. None. MEASUREMENTS AND MAINS RESULTS: Screening for delirium was performed using the Confusion Assessment Method (CAM) on the first 6 postoperative days. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed to identify significant risk factors and to control for confounders. Delirium developed in 35 of 113 patients (30%). The multivariable model showed the maximum value of C-reactive protein measured postoperatively, the dose of fentanyl per kilogram of body weight administered intraoperatively, and the duration of mechanical ventilation to be independently associated with delirium. In this post hoc analysis, larger doses of fentanyl administered intraoperatively and longer duration of mechanical ventilation were associated with postoperative delirium in the elderly after cardiac surgery. Prospective randomized trials should be performed to test the hypotheses that a reduced dose of fentanyl administered intraoperatively, the use of a different opioid, or weaning protocols aimed at early extubation prevent delirium in these patients.

Suboptimal filtering and nonlinear time scale transformation for the analysis of multiexponential decays

Multiexponential decays may contain time-constants differing in several orders of magnitudes. In such cases, uniform sampling results in very long records featuring a high degree of oversampling at the final part of the transient. Here, we analyze a nonlinear time scale transformation to reduce the total number of samples with minimum signal distortion, achieving an important reduction of the computational cost of subsequent analyses. We propose a time-varying filter whose length is optimized for minimum mean square error

Testing the bivariate distribution of daily equity returns using copulas: an application to the Spanish stock market

In this paper we deal with the identification of dependencies between time series of equity returns. Marginal distribution functions are assumed to be known, and a bivariate chi-square test of fit is applied in a fully parametric copula approach. Several families of copulas are fitted and compared with Spanish stock market data. The results show that the t-copula generally outperforms other dependence structures, and highlight the difficulty in adjusting a significant number of bivariate data series

Testing the bivariate distribution of daily equity returns using copulas: an application to the Spanish stock market

In this paper we deal with the identification of dependencies between time series of equity returns. Marginal distribution functions are assumed to be known, and a bivariate chi-square test of fit is applied in a fully parametric copula approach. Several families of copulas are fitted and compared with Spanish stock market data. The results show that the t-copula generally outperforms other dependence structures, and highlight the difficulty in adjusting a significant number of bivariate data series

Objective Sleep Structure and Cardiovascular Risk Factors in the General Population: The HypnoLaus Study.

STUDY OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the association between objective sleep measures and metabolic syndrome (MS), hypertension, diabetes, and obesity. DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: General population sample. PARTICIPANTS: There were 2,162 patients (51.2% women, mean age 58.4 ± 11.1). INTERVENTIONS: Patients were evaluated for hypertension, diabetes, overweight/obesity, and MS, and underwent a full polysomnography (PSG). MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: PSG measured variables included: total sleep time (TST), percentage and time spent in slow wave sleep (SWS) and in rapid eye movement (REM) sleep, sleep efficiency and arousal index (ArI). In univariate analyses, MS was associated with decreased TST, SWS, REM sleep, and sleep efficiency, and increased ArI. After adjustment for age, sex, smoking, alcohol, physical activity, drugs that affect sleep and depression, the ArI remained significantly higher, but the difference disappeared in patients without significant sleep disordered breathing (SDB). Differences in sleep structure were also found according to the presence or absence of hypertension, diabetes, and overweight/obesity in univariate analysis. However, these differences were attenuated after multivariate adjustment and after excluding subjects with significant SDB. CONCLUSIONS: In this population-based sample we found significant associations between sleep structure and MS, hypertension, diabetes, and obesity. However, these associations were cancelled after multivariate adjustment. We conclude that normal variations in sleep contribute little if any to MS and associated disorders.

Is intracerebral hemorrhage a time-dependent phenomenon after successful combined intravenous and intra-arterial therapy?

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Onset-to-reperfusion time (ORT) has recently emerged as an essential prognostic factor in acute ischemic stroke therapy. Although favorable outcome is associated with reduced ORT, it remains unclear whether intracranial bleeding depends on ORT. We therefore sought to determine whether ORT influenced the risk and volume of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) after combined intravenous and intra-arterial therapy. METHODS: Based on our prospective registry, we included 157 consecutive acute ischemic stroke patients successfully recanalized with combined intravenous and intra-arterial therapy between April 2007 and October 2011. Primary outcome was any ICH within 24 hours posttreatment. Secondary outcomes included occurrence of symptomatic ICH (sICH) and ICH volume measured with the ABC/2. RESULTS: Any ICH occurred in 26% of the study sample (n=33). sICH occurred in 5.5% (n=7). Median ICH volume was 0.8 mL. ORT was increased in patients with ICH (median=260 minutes; interquartile range=230-306) compared with patients without ICH (median=226 minutes; interquartile range=200-281; P=0.008). In the setting of sICH, ORT reached a median of 300 minutes (interquartile range=276-401; P=0.004). The difference remained significant after adjustment for potential confounding factors (adjusted P=0.045 for ICH; adjusted P=0.002 for sICH). There was no correlation between ICH volume and ORT (r=0.16; P=0.33). CONCLUSIONS: ORT influences the rate but not the volume of ICH and appears to be a critical predictor of symptomatic hemorrhage after successful combined intravenous and intra-arterial therapy. To minimize the risk of bleeding, revascularization should be achieved within 4.5 hours of stroke onset.