On Time Series Analysis of Public Health and Biomedical Data

A time series is a sequence of observations made over time. Examples in public health include daily ozone concentrations, weekly admissions to an emergency department or annual expenditures on health care in the United States. Time series models are used to describe the dependence of the response at each time on predictor variables including covariates and possibly previous values in the series. Time series methods are necessary to account for the correlation among repeated responses over time. This paper gives an overview of time series ideas and methods used in public health research.

Concentration- and time-dependent effects of the synthetic estrogen, 17alpha-ethinylestradiol, on reproductive capabilities of the zebrafish, Danio rerio

Partial or full life-cycle tests are needed to assess the potential of endocrine-disrupting compounds (EDCs) to adversely affect development and reproduction of fish. Small fish species such as zebrafish, Danio rerio, are under consideration as model organisms for appropriate test protocols. The present study examines how reproductive effects resulting from exposure of zebrafish to the synthetic estrogen 17alpha-ethinylestradiol (EE2) vary with concentration (0.05 to 10 ng EE2 L(-1), nominal), and with timing/duration of exposure (partial life-cycle, full life-cycle, and two-generation exposure). Partial life-cycle exposure of the parental (F1) generation until completion of gonad differentiation (0-75 d postfertilization, dpf) impaired juvenile growth, time to sexual maturity, adult fecundity (egg production/female/day), and adult fertilization success at 1.1 ng EE2 L(-1) and higher. Lifelong exposure of the F1 generation until 177 dpf resulted in lowest observed effect concentrations (LOECs) for time to sexual maturity, fecundity, and fertilization success identical to those of the developmental test (0-75 dpf), but the slope of the concentration-response curve was steeper. Reproduction of zebrafish was completely inhibited at 9.3 ng EE2 L(-1), and this was essentially irreversible as a 3-mo depuration restored fertilization success to only a very low rate. Accordingly, elevated endogenous vitellogenin (VTG) synthesis and degenerative changes in gonad morphology persisted in depurated zebrafish. Full life-cycle exposure of the filial (F2) generation until 162 dpf impaired growth, delayed onset of spawning and reduced fecundity and fertilization success at 2.0 ng EE2 L(-1). In conclusion, results show that the impact of estrogenic agents on zebrafish sexual development and reproductive functions as well as the reversibility of effects, varies with exposure concentration (reversibility at < or = 1.1 ng EE2 L(-1) and irreversibility at 9.3 ng EE2 L(-1)), and between partial and full life-cycle exposure (exposure to 10 ng EE2 L(-1) during critical period exerted no permanent effect on sexual differentiation, but life-cycle exposure did).

[On quality of life after surgical therapy of oral cancer - a retrospective multi-center study: the connection between dedentition, denture, quality of life, and dysphagia, and the resulting rehabilitation schemes]

PURPOSE: The surgical treatment of oral cancer results in functional and aesthetical impairments. Patients' quality of life is considerably impaired by oral symptoms resulting from therapy of oral cancer. In many cases the inevitable resection of the tumor, as well as the adjuvant radiochemotherapy will cause the destruction of physiologically and anatomically important structures. One focus of research was the specific rehabilitation of dental loss by functional dentures. Another was the course of 19 impairments (comprehension of speech for unknown others, comprehension of speech for familiar others, eating/swallowing, mobility of the tongue, opening range of the mouth, mobility of lower jaw, mobility of neck, mobility of arms and shoulders, sense of taste, sense of smell, appearance, strength, appetite, respiration, pain, swelling, xerostomia, halitosis). METHODS: Commissioned by the German, Austrian and Swiss cooperative group on tumors of the maxillofacial region (DOSAK), data were collected in 3.894 questionnaires at 43 hospitals in Germany, Austria and Switzerland. The catalogue comprised 147 items in 9 chapters. At the end of the enquiry, 1.761 anonymous questionnaires were returned by 38 hospitals. 1.652 of these could be evaluated regarding the question. RESULTS: The sum score of the 19 impairments was highly increased immediately after the operation and recovered over the next 6 months, without, however, reaching the pre-surgery level. Of 1.652 patients, only 35% did not lose any teeth during therapy. 23% lost up to 5, 17% up to 10 teeth. A quarter of the patients lost more than 10 teeth. The more teeth were lost, the greater the decline of quality of life (p < or = 0.001), although this could be allayed by the functionality of the dentures (p < or = 0.001). There is a reciprocal dependence between the functionality of dental prosthetics and impairment by eating/swallowing (p < or = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients' quality of life after radical surgery of a carcinoma of the oral cavity depends not only on the functionality of dentures and the specificity of rehabilitation, but also from the initial findings, the extent and location of the resection, the chosen therapy, the general circumstances of the patient's life as well as their strategies of coping. These factors, however, unlike those of functionality of dental prosthesis and rehabilitation, are not modifiable.

Intermediate results of health related quality of life after vertical banded gastroplasty

OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study is to evaluate (a) health-related quality of life (HRQL) after vertical banded gastroplasty (VBG) (Mason) and (b) predictors of HRQL. SUBJECTS: Eighty-two consecutive patients were assessed preoperatively and then after 6, 12 and 24 months. Patients filled out questionnaires for subjective appraisal of HRQL (physical well-being, mood, physical performance, perceived health, social support and coping/adjustment). RESULTS: The greatest improvement in weight and HRQL was seen within 6 months of surgery. Twenty-four months after VBG weight reduction (P<0.05), perceived health (P<0.05), physical well-being (P<0.05), physical performance (P<0.05), mood (P<0.05), coping/adjustment (P<0.05) continued to be better than before surgery. Preoperative binge eating was the most important predictor of HRQL. CONCLUSION: Two years after VBG weight loss and a significant improvement of HRQL can be found. HRQL and weight loss are not associated in terms of outcome, indicating that weight loss alone may not be enough to improve HRQL.

Mental health and quality of life after genetic testing for Huntington disease: a long-term effect study in Germany

Predictive genetic testing for Huntington disease (HD) might cause severe short-term psychological reactions in patients with poor mental health. Very few studies exist on the long-term effects of genetic HD testing. The aim of this study was to assess mental health and quality of life in persons who were tested for HD mutation, to compare mental health depending on the result of the genetic test (non-carriers, gene carriers, and patients with HD) and to identify predictors of mental health and quality of life via linear regression. The data were collected by self-report questionnaires. In total, 121 individuals participated in this study: 52 were non-carriers, 54 were gene carriers, and 15 were gene carriers suffering from HD. Non-carriers and gene carriers showed better mental health and quality of life than HD-patients but did not differ from each other. In non-carriers four variables predicted increased depression and low mental quality of life: low perceived social support, no intimate relationship, female sex and younger age. For gene carriers three predictors were found: low perceived social support, the expectation of an unfavorable genetic test result before the testing procedure and being childless. To prevent detrimental effects of HD testing on mental health and mental quality of life, specific attention should be paid to persons with limited social networks during genetic counseling. Assessment of expectations related to the test result and mental health prior to a genetic testing procedure may help to identify gene carriers at risk of poor coping after an unfavorable test result.

Time-domain modeling of high-frequency electromagnetic wave propagation, overhead wires, and earth

Prediction of radiated fields from transmission lines has not previously been studied from a panoptical power system perspective. The application of BPL technologies to overhead transmission lines would benefit greatly from an ability to simulate real power system environments, not limited to the transmission lines themselves. Presently circuitbased transmission line models used by EMTP-type programs utilize Carson’s formula for a waveguide parallel to an interface. This formula is not valid for calculations at high frequencies, considering effects of earth return currents. This thesis explains the challenges of developing such improved models, explores an approach to combining circuit-based and electromagnetics modeling to predict radiated fields from transmission lines, exposes inadequacies of simulation tools, and suggests methods of extending the validity of transmission line models into very high frequency ranges. Electromagnetics programs are commonly used to study radiated fields from transmission lines. However, an approach is proposed here which is also able to incorporate the components of a power system through the combined use of EMTP-type models. Carson’s formulas address the series impedance of electrical conductors above and parallel to the earth. These equations have been analyzed to show their inherent assumptions and what the implications are. Additionally, the lack of validity into higher frequencies has been demonstrated, showing the need to replace Carson’s formulas for these types of studies. This body of work leads to several conclusions about the relatively new study of BPL. Foremost, there is a gap in modeling capabilities which has been bridged through integration of circuit-based and electromagnetics modeling, allowing more realistic prediction of BPL performance and radiated fields. The proposed approach is limited in its scope of validity due to the formulas used by EMTP-type software. To extend the range of validity, a new set of equations must be identified and implemented in the approach. Several potential methods of implementation have been explored. Though an appropriate set of equations has not yet been identified, further research in this area will benefit from a clear depiction of the next important steps and how they can be accomplished. Prediction of radiated fields from transmission lines has not previously been studied from a panoptical power system perspective. The application of BPL technologies to overhead transmission lines would benefit greatly from an ability to simulate real power system environments, not limited to the transmission lines themselves. Presently circuitbased transmission line models used by EMTP-type programs utilize Carson’s formula for a waveguide parallel to an interface. This formula is not valid for calculations at high frequencies, considering effects of earth return currents. This thesis explains the challenges of developing such improved models, explores an approach to combining circuit-based and electromagnetics modeling to predict radiated fields from transmission lines, exposes inadequacies of simulation tools, and suggests methods of extending the validity of transmission line models into very high frequency ranges. Electromagnetics programs are commonly used to study radiated fields from transmission lines. However, an approach is proposed here which is also able to incorporate the components of a power system through the combined use of EMTP-type models. Carson’s formulas address the series impedance of electrical conductors above and parallel to the earth. These equations have been analyzed to show their inherent assumptions and what the implications are. Additionally, the lack of validity into higher frequencies has been demonstrated, showing the need to replace Carson’s formulas for these types of studies. This body of work leads to several conclusions about the relatively new study of BPL. Foremost, there is a gap in modeling capabilities which has been bridged through integration of circuit-based and electromagnetics modeling, allowing more realistic prediction of BPL performance and radiated fields. The proposed approach is limited in its scope of validity due to the formulas used by EMTP-type software. To extend the range of validity, a new set of equations must be identified and implemented in the approach. Several potential methods of implementation have been explored. Though an appropriate set of equations has not yet been identified, further research in this area will benefit from a clear depiction of the next important steps and how they can be accomplished.

Anti-Müllerian hormone and inhibin B as predictors of pregnancy after treatment by in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) as a marker of reproductive outcome after IVF/intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI). DESIGN: Longitudinal study. SETTING: University hospital. PATIENT(S): Two hundred seventy-six consecutive women undergoing IVF/ICSI. INTERVENTION(S): Ovarian stimulation, oocyte retrieval, IVF, ICSI, embryo transfer, AMH, and inhibin B determinations in serum and follicular fluid (FF). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): The AMH and inhibin B concentrations in 276 matched FF/serum pairs have been determined. Different outcome groups have been compared and set in relation to the oocyte count, morphological parameters, and steroid hormone levels. RESULT(S): The concentrations of AMH and inhibin B in both serum and FF were significantly higher in the group of women who became pregnant in the corresponding treatment cycle than in those who did not conceive. Positive correlations were observed between serum inhibin B concentrations and embryo morphology (r = 0.126, 95% confidence interval 0.026-0.284). Serum and FF AMH or inhibin B correlated positively with the oocyte count and negatively with the pretreatment cycle day 3 FSH level and the total administered gonadotropin dose. CONCLUSION(S): The AMH and inhibin B levels on the day of oocyte retrieval are correlated to reproductive outcome.

Correction of erosion after suburethral sling insertion for stress incontinence: results and related sexual function

BACKGROUND: Suburethral slings are commonly used for the surgical treatment of female stress incontinence; occasionally they can cause erosion and dyspareunia. OBJECTIVES: The primary aim of this study is to determine the outcome after reclosure of the vaginal epithelium for suburethral sling erosion. Sexual function was assessed before and after intervention using the Female Sexual Function Index (FSFI) questionnaire. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This was a prospective case-controlled study in which, between December 2005 and December 2007, we included patients who were referred to the Department of Urogynaecology because of vaginal erosion after suburethral sling insertion for urinary stress incontinence. For evaluation of sexual function, all patients filled in an FSFI questionnaire before intervention and at follow-up. All patients underwent gynaecological examination including colposcopy, and the site and size of the defect were noted. INTERVENTION: The edge of the vaginal epithelium was trimmed, mobilized, and closed with interrupted vertical Vicryl mattress sutures in a single layer. MEASUREMENTS: FSFI questionnaire and clinical findings. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS: Twenty-one patients were included in the study. Eighteen patients with larger defects were operated on, and three defects healed after topical application of estrogen cream. In 16 patients, the defect had healed at follow-up; two patients with persisting defects were brought back to surgery and the procedure was repeated, paying particular attention to tension-free adaptation of vaginal tissue. In one patient, partial sling removal was performed after the second failed intervention. The domains of desire (p<0.0001), arousal (p<0.0003), lubrication (p<0.0001), satisfaction (p<0.0130), and pain (p<0.0001) improved significantly. Orgasm remained unchanged (p=0.4130; all two-tailed t-test). CONCLUSION: Suburethral erosion can be treated effectively by resuturing. Sexual function is improved in regard to desire, arousal, lubrication, satisfaction, and pain, but not orgasm. In septic patients and patients with a history of radiation, grossly infected tissue, or severe pain, excision of the mesh needs to be considered.

Outcome and quality of life after surgical and endovascular treatment of descending aortic lesions

BACKGROUND: Thoracic endovascular aortic repair (TEVAR) represents an attractive alternative to open aortic repair (OAR). The aim of this study was to assess outcome and quality of life in patients treated either by TEVAR or OAR for diseased descending thoracic aorta. METHODS: A post hoc analysis of a prospectively collected consecutive series of 136 patients presenting with surgical diseases of the descending aorta between January 2001 and December 2005 was conducted. Fourteen patients were excluded because of involvement of the ascending aorta. Assessed treatment cohorts were TEVAR (n = 52) and OAR (n = 70). Mean follow-up was 34 +/- 18 months. End points were perioperative and late mortality rates and long-term quality of life as assessed by the Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) and Hospital Anxiety and Depression Score questionnaires. RESULTS: Mean age was significantly higher in TEVAR patients (69 +/- 10 years versus 62 +/- 15 years; p = 0.002). Perioperative mortality rates were 9% (OAR) and 8% (TEVAR), respectively (p = 0.254). Accordingly, cumulative long-term mortality rates were similar in both cohorts. Overall quality-of-life scores were 93 (63-110, OAR) and 83 (60-112, TEVAR), respectively. Normal quality-of-life scores range from 85 to 115. Anxiety and depression scores were not increased after open surgery. CONCLUSIONS: Thoracic endovascular aortic repair and OAR both provide excellent long-term results in treatment of thoracic aortic disease. Long-term quality of life, however, is reduced after thoracic aortic repair. Interestingly, TEVAR patients did not score higher in overall quality of life despite all advantages of minimized access trauma. Similarly, anxiety and depression scores are not reduced by TEVAR, possibly reflecting a certain caution against the new technology.

Time-dependent interactions of the two porphyrinic compounds chlorin e6 and mono-L-aspartyl-chlorin e6 with phospholipid vesicles probed by NMR spectroscopy

The distribution processes of chlorin e6 (CE) and monoaspartyl-chlorin e6 (MACE) between the outer and inner phospholipid monolayers of 1,2-dioleoyl-phosphatidylcholine (DOPC) vesicles were monitored by 1H NMR spectroscopy through analysis of chemical shifts and line widths of the DOPC vesicle resonances. Chlorin adsorption to the outer vesicle monolayer induced changes in the DOPC 1H NMR spectrum. Most pronounced was a split of the N-methyl choline resonance, allowing for separate analysis of inner and outer vesicle layers. Transbilayer distribution of the chlorin compounds was indicated by time-dependent characteristic spectral changes of the DOPC resonances. Kinetic parameters for the flip-flop processes, that is, half-lives and rate constants, were obtained from the experimental data points. In comparison to CE, MACE transbilayer movement was significantly reduced, with MACE remaining more or less attached to the outer membrane layer. The distribution coefficients for CE and MACE between the vesicular and aqueous phase were determined. Both CE and MACE exhibited a high affinity for the vesicular phase. For CE, a positive correlation was found between transfer rate and increasing molar ratio CE/DOPC. Enhanced membrane rigidity induced by increasing amounts of cholesterol into the model membrane was accompanied by a decrease of CE flip-flop rates across the membrane. The present study shows that the movement of porphyrins across membranes can efficiently be investigated by 1H NMR spectroscopy and that small changes in porphyrin structure can have large effects on membrane kinetics.